Josh Allen is NOT a tier one QB.

[penguinz]

He is not in the top tier. Pretty clear the top tier is just Mahomes and Burrow.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Right, if he was really, really hurt that line wouldn't actually be close.

Information gets out and is acted on.

Has the line come out yet?

I was thinking Chiefs -2 as the opening line but I hadn't looked to see if it had been released yet.

[St. Patty's Fire]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

I heard rumors they are moving on from Poyer and signing Tremaine "No instincts" Edmunds to a big deal.

They have little cap space and lots of free agents. Most are not important but still their best shot was this year.

so they are definitely poised to take a step back over the next few years.

13 seconds is going to haunt this franchise even more than wide right

[St. Patty's Fire]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Has the line come out yet?

I was thinking Chiefs -2 as the opening line but I hadn't looked to see if it had been released yet.

i think it opened at chiefs -2.5 but is now bengals -2.5

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Has the line come out yet?

I was thinking Chiefs -2 as the opening line but I hadn't looked to see if it had been released yet.

Last I saw, the Bengals were 2.5pt favorites.

[St. Patty's Fire]

so considering the fact that home field generally grants a team 3 points in the spread the bengals are essentially a 5.5 point favorite.

even with the mahomes situation thats surprising to me

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by St. Patty's Fire

so considering the fact that home field generally grants a team 3 points in the spread the bengals are essentially a 5.5 point favorite.

even with the mahomes situation thats surprising to me

I have heard since Covid Vegas has essentially made home field 1.5 points.

[JPH83]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

But this is where I keep coming back to Burrow's greatest strength being one of style.

There seem to be 2 'distilled' positions here:

1) Mahomes can do what Burrow can do PLUS things Burrow can't do and as such he's the superior QB.

2) Mahomes can do things Burrow can't do but Burrow can do things Mahomes can't and as such, they're different but perhaps equally effective QBs.

Right now I have a really difficult time making argument 2 because I've just seen Mahomes do too much. But we have folks saying "Mahomes on a bad wheel isn't Mahomes..." or "Burrow plays in a way that mitigates the impact of his OL" - okay, but wouldn't that potentially SUPPORT position 2? Because if position 1 is correct, the bad wheel just confines Mahomes to being more of a pocket passer and thus effectively MAKES him Burrow. In which case, why can't he win this game? Or frankly, any of the 3 that preceded it.

No, I'm not saying that any individual loss makes this a hairer conversation than I'm comfortable having. I'm saying that four of them damn sure would.

Mahomes has strengths that simply haven't been seen in this game very often, if at all. Meanwhile Burrow's strengths are more subdued but they are very real. And we've seen these very strengths win multiple championships in the form of Tom Brady. They're not as overt, obvious or flashy - but they DO exist. And if Mahomes takes all those same strengths and adds the spectacular, he should still be able to win this game Sunday even if he's no longer capable of the spectacular.

If he doesn't - well like I said, there are difficult conversations to have, fellas. Because at that point you have a real question as to whether or not the real distinctions between Mahomes and Burrow are stylistic rather than substantial. Worse still, you have to start to ask if Burrow's style isn't more conducive to winning these critical matchups. Afterall, Mahomes spiritual predecessor is Rodgers and Rodgers only got 1 ring. Meanwhile the two most obviously successful winners of all time - Brady and Montana - played like Burrow does.

Said it before but I'll say again. There's no comparison until Burrow is playing and getting paid, imo. The difference in options on roster construction are just way too significant.

If the Bengals win they should get a SB because they will have the best QB of the remaining teams. Maybe then we're talking about parity. Relative success beyond that is when we can start factoring in styles, GM moves etc I reckon. But there's a way to go yet on both.

[Indian Chief]

But that's not where the line was set. It has moved there because of all the money coming in on Cincinnati, likely due to Mahomes' injury.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by Indian Chief

But that's not where the line was set. It has moved there because of all the money coming in on Cincinnati, likely due to Mahomes' injury.

Public is reacting to what they saw with Bengals beating down Buffalo.

Vegas is going to enjoy having the public step on the grenade.

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

But this is where I keep coming back to Burrow's greatest strength being one of style.

There seem to be 2 'distilled' positions here:

1) Mahomes can do what Burrow can do PLUS things Burrow can't do and as such he's the superior QB.

2) Mahomes can do things Burrow can't do but Burrow can do things Mahomes can't and as such, they're different but perhaps equally effective QBs.

Right now I have a really difficult time making argument 2 because I've just seen Mahomes do too much. But we have folks saying "Mahomes on a bad wheel isn't Mahomes..." or "Burrow plays in a way that mitigates the impact of his OL" - okay, but wouldn't that potentially SUPPORT position 2? Because if position 1 is correct, the bad wheel just confines Mahomes to being more of a pocket passer and thus effectively MAKES him Burrow. In which case, why can't he win this game? Or frankly, any of the 3 that preceded it.

No, I'm not saying that any individual loss makes this a hairer conversation than I'm comfortable having. I'm saying that four of them damn sure would.

Mahomes has strengths that simply haven't been seen in this game very often, if at all. Meanwhile Burrow's strengths are more subdued but they are very real. And we've seen these very strengths win multiple championships in the form of Tom Brady. They're not as overt, obvious or flashy - but they DO exist. And if Mahomes takes all those same strengths and adds the spectacular, he should still be able to win this game Sunday even if he's no longer capable of the spectacular.

If he doesn't - well like I said, there are difficult conversations to have, fellas. Because at that point you have a real question as to whether or not the real distinctions between Mahomes and Burrow are stylistic rather than substantial. Worse still, you have to start to ask if Burrow's style isn't more conducive to winning these critical matchups. Afterall, Mahomes spiritual predecessor is Rodgers and Rodgers only got 1 ring. Meanwhile the two most obviously successful winners of all time - Brady and Montana - played like Burrow does.

First of all, regarding the bad wheel. On Saturday Patrick had a number of throws with zero juice on them. They looked like weak-armed throws you see from high school QB's who will never play in the NFL. Joe Burrow has a very strong arm when healthy. So I don't think you can say Mahomes with a bad right ankle that kills his velocity is the "same" as a healthy Burrow. We will see what kind of magic the Chiefs training staff can pull off this week, but I did not like what we saw with Patrick last Saturday. It is not just a lack of mobility with this injury, it's the inability to push off on the right ankle and create velocity even on basic throws from the pocket. The dude was struggling to hand the ball to running backs for crying out loud.

Second of all, you keep ignoring the defensive aspect of everything. Joe Montana & Tom Brady had Top 5 defenses backing them for massive chunks of their career. Mahomes has never had a defense like that, not once. Even when he won a Super Bowl, his defense gave up 25 points per game in those 3 games. Burrow has scored 23 points per game on offense in his playoff career and his defense only allows 18 points per game. I wish Mahomes was given that type of defense. Imagine a defense that can hold Josh Allen to 10 points.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by DRM08

First of all, regarding the bad wheel. On Saturday Patrick had a number of throws with zero juice on them. They looked like weak-armed throws you see from high school QB's who will never play in the NFL. Joe Burrow has a very strong arm when healthy. So I don't think you can say Mahomes with a bad right ankle that kills his velocity is the "same" as a healthy Burrow. We will see what kind of magic the Chiefs training staff can pull off this week, but I did not like what we saw with Patrick last Saturday. It is not just a lack of mobility with this injury, it's the inability to push off on the right ankle and create velocity even on basic throws from the pocket. The dude was struggling to hand the ball to running backs for crying out loud.

Second of all, you keep ignoring the defensive aspect of everything. Joe Montana & Tom Brady had Top 5 defenses backing them for massive chunks of their career. Mahomes has never had a defense like that, not once. Even when he won a Super Bowl, his defense gave up 25 points per game in those 3 games. Burrow has scored 23 points per game on offense in his playoff career and his defense only allows 18 points per game. I wish Mahomes was given that type of defense. Imagine a defense that can hold Josh Allen to 10 points.

For a Mahomes fan, you sure don't have much faith in him.

[Iconic]

Brady and Montana superseding Rodgers probably had more to do with the head coaches of their respective teams at those times than QB style.

And as it stands, Reid > Taylor, so I imagine over a long enough time frame we will see that play out in wins and losses.

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

For a Mahomes fan, you sure don't have much faith in him.

I watched him have a losing record in college. I will continue to say it. This is a team game, lol. There are a boatload of Hall of Fame QB's who never got the type of help from their teammates that a Brady or Montana or even Burrow right now seems to be getting from his teammates.

It's insane some of the stuff Burrow's defense has been doing for him. Holding Allen to 10 points on Allen's home field is ridiculous. That 99 yard fumble return TD to beat the Ravens? Also ridiculous. 5 straight turnovers on Tom Brady when Cincy was down 17-0? Also ridiculous. That fumble at the end of the Patriots game? Ridiculous. That fumble on Kelce? Once again, crazy stuff on defense when they really needed it.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by DRM08

I watched him have a losing record in college. I will continue to say it. This is a team game, lol. There are a boatload of Hall of Fame QB's who never got the type of help from their teammates that a Brady or Montana or even Burrow right now seems to be getting from his teammates.

It's insane some of the stuff Burrow's defense has been doing for him. Holding Allen to 10 points on Allen's home field is ridiculous. That 99 yard fumble return TD to beat the Ravens? Also ridiculous. 5 straight turnovers on Tom Brady when Cincy was down 17-0? Also ridiculous. That fumble at the end of the Patriots game? Ridiculous. That fumble on Kelce? Once again, crazy stuff on defense when they really needed it.

I get that the defense has never played the way Cinci's defense does. Yet, overall the Chiefs have a better record over the last 3 years than the Bengals. That's because of Patrick Mahomes. You can't keep comparing him to Tech Mahomes because he's no longer that player, not even close.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DRM08

First of all, regarding the bad wheel. On Saturday Patrick had a number of throws with zero juice on them. They looked like weak-armed throws you see from high school QB's who will never play in the NFL. Joe Burrow has a very strong arm when healthy. So I don't think you can say Mahomes with a bad right ankle that kills his velocity is the "same" as a healthy Burrow. We will see what kind of magic the Chiefs training staff can pull off this week, but I did not like what we saw with Patrick last Saturday. It is not just a lack of mobility with this injury, it's the inability to push off on the right ankle and create velocity even on basic throws from the pocket. The dude was struggling to hand the ball to running backs for crying out loud.

Second of all, you keep ignoring the defensive aspect of everything. Joe Montana & Tom Brady had Top 5 defenses backing them for massive chunks of their career. Mahomes has never had a defense like that, not once. Even when he won a Super Bowl, his defense gave up 25 points per game in those 3 games. Burrow has scored 23 points per game on offense in his playoff career and his defense only allows 18 points per game. I wish Mahomes was given that type of defense. Imagine a defense that can hold Josh Allen to 10 points.

And you're likewise ignoring the OL portion and/or acting as though Burrow has the 85 Bears on defense.

He has a good defense backing him - no question. But the Bengals gave up an average of 20.1 PPG this season at 5.4 yards/play. The Chiefs gave up 21.7 PPG at 5.1 yards/play. The Chiefs defensive DVOA was 17th in the league; the Bengals were at 11th.

Yes, the Bengals defense is better, but it's not elite by any stretch of the imagination. It's largely within the margin of error when compared to the Chiefs. "Imagine a defense that can hold the Bills to 10 points..." I mean, the Jets held them to 17 and it didn't take a driving snowstorm to do it.

The Bengals have a good defense and good players on said defense. But it's the same defense that gave up 17 to a Ravens team where Tyler Huntley seemed to be actively sabotaging them. It gave up 32 to Jacoby Brisset.

I'm not ignoring the defense at all - I'm simply refusing to overstate it. The Bengals don't have a top 10 defense this season let alone merit any sort of historical conversation. They're fine. They're not a liability. Probably a slightly above average unit just as the Chiefs are a slightly below average unit.

But with a coaching staff advantage and his entire starting OL, that's not something that Mahomes - who will be directly attacking said defense - shouldn't be able to overcome.