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10-01-2020, 02:35 PM | #211 | |
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Everything went right for them, including eeking out wins by extremely small margins but both of those teams fell back to earth the following season. This Steelers team is real and IMO, are the only team standing in the way of the Chiefs going to consecutive Super Bowls. The Ravens play them twice still this year along with Dallas, New England, Tennessee and Indy, who has a defense that may give Jackson a ton of problems. Something unprecedented will need to occur for the Ravens to win 14 games this season, which is why I think it's likely their win total won't exceed 11, IMO and may fall down to 9. |
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10-01-2020, 02:41 PM | #212 | |
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But I looked it up. There's so much luck that goes into winning that many games. Teams that have gone 14-2 or better in a season average just 10 wins the next. There's a reason for that. |
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10-01-2020, 02:42 PM | #213 | |
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Cleveland has the talent on paper to put up a strong fight against the Ravens. They'll be a much better team later in the season as the players get more game reps in the new coach's system. |
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10-01-2020, 03:09 PM | #214 | |
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He's a good QB. I don't think he is as great as many make him out to be but he certainly isn't as bad as many on here are making him out to be either. He won the MVP award and got voted #1 player last year for a reason Last edited by PAChiefsGuy; 10-01-2020 at 03:56 PM.. |
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10-01-2020, 03:36 PM | #215 | |
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If there's a question with the Steelers it's gotta be Big Ben. Is his elbow really 100% or not? Because they're going to have to put up 26+ points, probably. Indy is a maybe. Mostly because we know Rivers and what does Rivers do when he get flustered? Throw picks, and the Ravens CBs are ball-hawks. NE is another maybe. Problem for them, as I see it, is do they have the horses? I don't think they do, but you're right, Bill is the best at hiding his defense's weaknesses and making QBs see ghosts. But Bill is going to have to stop the Ravens run game, which is where I think he just doesn't have the players to do that. Plus, BAL beat NE last season when they actually had all their starting defensive players, and Tom Brady. Not sure how a lesser version of NE's defense plays well enough to stop BAL. And I'm just going with my gut on this one, but I don't think BAL is going to let TEN beat them again. That's a game they definitely have circled, and they're going to want to show the world that TEN's victory last year was a fluke. But yeah, BAL could drop 3 or 4 more. However, their record against the rest of the league is like 21-1? They aren't scared of anyone, except the Chiefs. |
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10-01-2020, 03:43 PM | #216 |
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The Steelers haven't played any good teams yet. All three of their opponents combined have a total of 0 wins.
I'd pump the breaks on them a bit. |
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10-01-2020, 03:44 PM | #217 |
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I don't think either has shown anything close to the (football) intelligence to really excel as a quarterback. Although if forced, I'd probably take Dak. He's less athlete, more passer. Whereas Lamar, with a few pounds on his frame, might be the best runningback in the NFL, but him throwing the ball is a nightmare, and I don't mean for the defense. I expected him to progress as a passer well before now, but he just hasn't.
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10-01-2020, 03:44 PM | #218 | |
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10-01-2020, 03:45 PM | #219 |
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10-01-2020, 03:46 PM | #220 |
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10-01-2020, 03:52 PM | #221 |
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Their schedule is so incredibly easy from this point forward. I have a hard time seeing them only winning 10 or 11. Two games against Pittsburgh and one against New England, that's pretty much the only challenges they have left, and I doubt they lose all 3. I think they'll see the Titans as a revenge game, and the Cowboys can't stop anybody. I have a hard time seeing them lose to the Colts or the Eagles, either, and they're just not losing to Washington or the Bengals or the Browns or the Jaguars or the Giants.
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10-01-2020, 03:53 PM | #222 |
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Nah, it's fair to pump the brakes on them a bit as a true Super Bowl contender, even though they'll almost definitely be in the playoffs. The fact Denver managed to play them close gives me serious pause. Too damn bad the Titans game was postponed.
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10-01-2020, 03:54 PM | #223 | |
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To date there's been no evidence that red zone performance is a repeatable skill. When it's been analyzed over any meaningful sample size, it typically just dillutes into a sample size error. 40% of Lamar Jackson's red zone attempts last season were thrown for TDs. That's IMPOSSIBLY high. That's like those guys that come up in September in baseball and hit 30% of their fly-balls for homers. Those guys invariably regress the following season to a typical 17% sort of figure. League-wide, 23% of the red zone passes thrown were for touchdowns. Go ahead and give Jackson 25% as a normalized figure after accounting for regression and you're looking at 15 red zone TDs instead of 24. So a 'realistic' projection of TD passes for Jackson, even in a year like he had last year, is more along the lines of 26-27 touchdowns. Still a fine year, but to cite the TD passes he threw is to give him credit for a 'skill' that simply doesn't exist. Perhaps not surprisingly, Jackson's TD/Pass rate in the red zone OUTSIDE of 2019? Exactly 25%. Don't cite that stat - it doesn't mean anything. There's no year over year predictive value to red zone TD stats. Even quarterbacks w/ great red zone tools (Mahomes, for instance) show MASSIVE variance in year to year TD numbers inside the 20. Mahomes threw a mere 11 in 56 red zone attempts last season (19%) after throwing 35 in 96 attempts the season prior (36%). They wash out as static over any meaningful sample size.
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10-01-2020, 03:57 PM | #224 |
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10-01-2020, 04:00 PM | #225 |
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Yeah, I just don't think they can do that to that defense. At least not the way we did. And the Cowboys definitely can't hold the Ravens offense to 13 points.
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