"Trade Sneed" Mock 2/24/2024

[kccrow]

I was asked for my interpretation of keeping Jones and then tagging and trading Sneed. It's always a crapshoot on the valuation of any player, both from a contract perspective and a trade value perspective. I give Sneed a 2nd + 4th value but the teams I have as most ideal targets don't have 4th rounders (PHI, DET). I'm opting to give you guys the trade with Detroit as I think they have an incentive to make a splash or two in FA and they definitely MUST upgrade their secondary. Also, for notation purposes, the carrying cost of Sneed on the tag is $19,802,000 until he's traded which will invariably affect early free agency options. With that...

Cap for 2024 has been set at 255.4m and Chiefs have an approximate current space of 18.2m

Extensions
OC Creed Humphrey 5y/67.5m w/8.75m SB Cap hits: 3.5/9.5/12.5/13.5/14.5/15.8 (+1.75)

Releases
WR Marquez Valdez-Scantling (-12.0)

Trades
Chiefs trade WR Kadarius Toney to anyone for a conditional 2025 7th-round pick (-2.53)
Chiefs tag and trade CB L'Jarius Sneed and 3-95 to the Detroit Lions for pick 2-61 and 3-73 (f/MIN)

Restructures
QB Patrick Mahomes convert roster bonus to signing bonus (-27.47m)

FA Re-Signings
DT Chris Jones 3y/84.1m w/20.0m SB + 2.0m/y in LTBE incentives to create 3/90.1m contract Cap Hits: 22.8/27.8/30.7/4.8/4.0
LT Donovan Smith 1y/10.0m w/3.0m SB
WR Mecole Hardman 3y/15.0m w/5.1m SB Cap Hits: 3.5/5.5/6.0
LB Drue Tranquill 2y/9.0m w/3.0M SB Cap Hits: 3.3/5.7
LS James Winchester 3y/4.6m w/800k SB Cap Hits: 1.5/1.5/1.6
DT Isaiah Buggs 1y/1.3m (signed already)
DE Malik Herring ERFA Tender
DB Nazeeh Johnson ERFA Tender
LB Jack Cochrane ERFA Tender
OG Mike Caliendo ERFA Tender
LB Cole Christiansen ERFA Tender

Chiefs let the rest walk.

FA Signings
SP Matt Araiza 795k (signed, not sure of the overall yet)
QB Carson Wentz (LAR) 1y/1.4m - Better backup QB
WR Van Jefferson (ATL) 1y/1.3m - Solid speed/size combo James replacement
TE Harrison Bryant (CLE) 1y/1.8m - Good blocker and better receiver to replace Bell
DE Yetur Gross-Matos (CAR) 1y/2.5m - Good rotational end that would replace Omenihu (until he's ready to go)

Draft class valuation of 9.6m with top-51 estimate of 3.3m

Chiefs have an estimated 3.5m in 2024 in-season Operating Cap

The Draft
1-032. WR Troy Franklin, Oregon (6'2" 185) - Silky-smooth, speedy #2 across from Rice to replace MVS
2-061. CB Kalen King, Penn State (5'11" 190) - Physical man CB that plays the run well and is glue in coverage to replace Sneed
2-064. OT Kiran Amegadjie, Yale (6'5" 318) - Insane size and athletic ability but limited by the strength of competition, LTotF
3-073. DT Maason Smith, LSU (6'5" 315) - Raw, toolsy DT that can play the 3 or the 1 to replace Nnadi
4-133. DT DeWayne Carter, Duke (6'3" 308) - Penetrating DT that can play both spots to replace Wharton
5-158. LB Nathaniel Watson, Mississippi St (6'2" 245) - Physical, downhill LB with good speed to replace Gay
5-172. RB Emani Bailey, TCU - Speedy, do-it-all back and McKinnon replacement
7-250. SS Kenny Logan Jr, Kansas - Hard-hitting safety for special teams and to fill back end with Conner replacing Edwards

The Roster
QB: P. Mahomes, C. Wentz
RB: I. Pacheco, L. Perine, E. Bailey
WR: R. Rice, T. Franklin, M. Hardman, V. Jefferson, J. Watson, S. Moore
TE: T. Kelce, N. Gray, H. Bryant
LT: D. Smith, K. Amegadjie
LG: J. Thuney, W. Morris
OC: C. Humphrey, M. Caliendo
RG: T. Smith
RT: J. Taylor, L. Niang
DE: G. Karlaftis, M. Herring, C. Omenihu(*IR)
DT: C. Jones, D. Carter
NT: I. Buggs, M. Smith, N. Ferrell
DE: F. Anudike-Uzomah, Y. Gross-Matos, B. Thompson
LB: N. Bolton, L. Chenal, D. Tranquill, N. Watson, C. Jones
CB: T. McDuffie, K. King, J. Williams, J. Watson, N. Jones
DB: J. Reid, B. Cook, C. Conner, N. Johnson, K. Logan
ST: H. Butker, M. Araiza, J. Winchester

[JPH83]

Appreciate your taking the time on these exercises kccrow. My mindset going in was I'd hate it but actually the results I kinda like. I'll be honest, my one hesitation here though is fairly significant...I don't like King much. He looked poor at the Senior Bowl. I know it's a tough ask but I cane away unimpressed. Not sure who I'd have there instead. Maybe Khyree Jackson, Cam Hart or Renardo Green a little later.

Not sure Conner steps into the Edwards role, feels like they play different positions well, but overall I like that safety group, I like Logan as a late round guy a lot.

Not as big on Maason Smith as some but I really like the double dip. I could see it taking some time but I think the end result for the D is whatever is lost in the secondary is made up for by increasing the hurry up from the DL.

Getting more developmental options at OT has grown on me as I'm not sure on Morris, so I really like this. RB room is improved. Don't know much about Bryant but seems a smart move to add blocking depth for cheap.

Maybe a bit risky going for just Van Jefferson at WR. What about Shenault there, I think you maybe had him in a previous iteration? Different player I realise.

Quite like Gross- Matos as a cheap flyer.

Yeah, lots i like about this, nice one.

[DJ's left nut]

Hmmm.....

So we traded Sneed to draft King and used his freed money to...uh...retain Donovan Smith and not extend Reid or Omenihu?

That feels like a 'screw it, keep Sneed' sort of outcome. I just don't see us improving at all there.

Feels like all that trade did was convince us to be less aggressive in restructures rather than work harder in fortifying for a 3-peat.

[duncan_idaho]

So if I'm doing the math on the transactions, the Chiefs are at $32.5M, roughly, after those restructures or deals, and we're then assuming that Jones' cap hit for 2024 is roughly $25M?

I can see this approach working, I guess. I do wonder how they would use the Sneed draft capital, what positions they would target. When they traded Hill, most of us assumed they would use the extra 1st to address WR... and then they flipped the script and took McDuffie.

Getting a top 2 rounds pick AND upgrading your round 3 pick by about 20 spots is certainly a lot of value/capital to add. Trade comp is roughly equivalent to pick 50 in a draft.

I'd probably be tempted to work Detroit and Philly against each other a bit here and see if I can just get #51 from the Eagles for Sneed, straight-up.

Having 4 picks in the top 75 is awfully tasty, though, compared to 3. And you could always package one of them to move up in the 2nd if you needed/wanted. Can get pretty high in round 2 with 61 and 64 packaged together.

Re: The Sneed tag/trade restricting early FA, if you're first locking up Chris Jones you probably aren't swimming in the initial rounds of FA, anyway, right? And that Humphrey extension could always wait if needed until later in the year.

[kccrow]

Oh yeah, didn't realize I forgot to put Chris Jones in the sheet lol... I'll edit the OP

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Hmmm.....

So we traded Sneed to draft King and used his freed money to...uh...retain Donovan Smith and not extend Reid or Omenihu?

That feels like a 'screw it, keep Sneed' sort of outcome. I just don't see us improving at all there.

Feels like all that trade did was convince us to be less aggressive in restructures rather than work harder in fortifying for a 3-peat.

I don't think it convinces us to be less aggressive, etc. I think you can apply whatever spin you want to use the money and the draft picks, right? I was slightly conservative with the use of funds and not moving picks. I think you could talk yourself into being more aggressive, not less.

Like, this idea doesn't mean it's THE idea. I could put 20 different spins on this. You could not re-sign Smith and Hardman and instead go for a bigger name at WR in FA say, Evans, with a 1st-year hit of 13m, and then trade up in the 1st with one of those 2nds, say 32 and 61 for 19, for a LT like Guyton or maybe a DT like Murphy. You could package both 2nds to probably get into the late 30s and I might do it for Sanders or Lassiter. You could put a 2nd and the 3rd together and get into the 40s. There are options galore to change how this works out to suit what you might think is best.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by JPH83

Appreciate your taking the time on these exercises kccrow. My mindset going in was I'd hate it but actually the results I kinda like. I'll be honest, my one hesitation here though is fairly significant...I don't like King much. He looked poor at the Senior Bowl. I know it's a tough ask but I cane away unimpressed. Not sure who I'd have there instead. Maybe Khyree Jackson, Cam Hart or Renardo Green a little later.

Not sure Conner steps into the Edwards role, feels like they play different positions well, but overall I like that safety group, I like Logan as a late round guy a lot.

Not as big on Maason Smith as some but I really like the double dip. I could see it taking some time but I think the end result for the D is whatever is lost in the secondary is made up for by increasing the hurry up from the DL.

Getting more developmental options at OT has grown on me as I'm not sure on Morris, so I really like this. RB room is improved. Don't know much about Bryant but seems a smart move to add blocking depth for cheap.

Maybe a bit risky going for just Van Jefferson at WR. What about Shenault there, I think you maybe had him in a previous iteration? Different player I realise.

Quite like Gross- Matos as a cheap flyer.

Yeah, lots i like about this, nice one.

I was on the draft Gross-Matos train in his draft so I will always like adding a guy like that.

[Toad]

Thanks for the effort

Curious how you got to the 2nd + 4th trade value perspective on Sneed? Considering the exercise was with Philly or Detroit, I’m guessing an overall value of a bottom half of the 2nd, yes?

I wonder what the floor value the team is considering? Otherwise, may be best just to keep him on the tag.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Toad

Thanks for the effort

Curious how you got to the 2nd + 4th trade value perspective on Sneed? Considering the exercise was with Philly or Detroit, I’m guessing an overall value of a bottom half of the 2nd, yes?

I wonder what the floor value the team is considering? Otherwise, may be best just to keep him on the tag.

2nd rounders have been the going rate for most good players for several years. Generally speaking, most trades of 1sts for players in recent times have been for quarterbacks, edge rushers, and wide receivers. There have been a couple of notable exceptions, such as Jamal Adams but it's kind of rare. It's an off-the-cuff best guess in reality.

[kcbubb]

Thanks Crow! I love this approach. I don’t see our defense dropping much with this kind of move. We’ve shown the ability to draft good cbs. And our offense could really improve. Thanks for putting in the work. Those middle round picks could really build our team for the future. The trade gave you room to add talent in the trenches. Well done.

[Couch-Potato]

I think if we do tag and trade Sneed, which I believe is more likely than letting Jones walk, I wonder if we wouldn't use the additional picks to move around the draft a bit and target "our guys."

Good mock!

[ntexascardfan]

What if we traded 32 + 61 and moved into the late teens to grab a guy like Byron Murphy.

Make life easier on our CBs without Sneed by creating an elite pass rush and a player who, if he develops, can take the reigns from CJ once Jones retires.

This WR class is deep enough I think we can get a solid guy at the end of round 2.

[Woogieman]

This WR class is deep enough I think we can get a solid guy at the end of round 2.[/QUOTE]

...not if you just used it to trade up for murphy

[ntexascardfan]

Originally Posted by Woogieman

This WR class is deep enough I think we can get a solid guy at the end of round 2.

...not if you just used it to trade up for murphy[/QUOTE]

In the scenario crow created we have two second round picks --61 and 64.

[Woogieman]

Originally Posted by ntexascardfan

...not if you just used it to trade up for murphy

In the scenario crow created we have two second round picks --61 and 64.[/QUOTE]
OK, I'm with ya