Chiefs AH Pride article. Statistics show Reid takes his foot off the gas

**jjchieffan** · 07-03-2023, 01:19 PM

Now there’s evidence: Andy Reid slows down his offense with a second-half lead
We’ve found some statistics showing that Kansas City might be doing just what fans have long suspected.

By John Dixon on July 3, 2023 11:58 am

In a couple of recent discussions regarding Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid’s perceived tendency to “take his foot off the gas” when he holds a late lead, I’ve brought up a statistic I discovered just over a month ago, when I was preparing an article about how the Chiefs have dominated the NFL since Reid took over the team — especially since quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been the starter.

It shows that since Mahomes took the reins, Kansas City has led all teams in point differential — and since Reid was hired in 2013, it is second only to the New England Patriots.

Point Differential, 2018-2022
Team Diff
Chiefs 641
Ravens 546
Patriots 455
Bills 439
Saints 427
Cowboys 347
49ers 297
Rams 260
Packers 257
Seahawks 211

Point Differential, 2013-2022

Team Diff
Patriots 1219
Chiefs 1110
Seahawks 779
Ravens 662
Saints 583
Cowboys 507
Eagles 437
Bills 428
Steelers 416
Packers 409

To me, the fact that the Chiefs have won their games by a larger total margin than almost every other team suggested that this narrative about Reid might be just a bit overblown. It’s not hard to believe that Reid seems to call a different game when he is protecting a second-half lead — but if his team leads all others in point differential, is he really doing something that other coaches don’t do?

Some argued, however, that this point differential statistic is skewed because the Chiefs have won so many games. In their view, this masks many narrow wins after Reid began protecting late-game leads — and says nothing about losses that might have happened as a result.

So I went back to the data. This time, I calculated each team’s average point differential only for the games it won — and also for the games it lost.

Winning Pt. Differential, 2018-2022

Team Diff
Patriots 17.0
Bills 14.5
Cowboys 14.1
Ravens 14.1
49ers 14.1
Rams 12.8
Saints 12.6
Buccaneers 12.6
Colts 12.5
Chiefs 12.0

Losing Pt. Differential, 2018-2022

Team Diff
Chiefs -6.9
Ravens -6.9
Seahawks -7.5
Chargers -8.9
Saints -9.1
Buccaneers -9.6
49ers -9.8
Cowboys -9.8
Colts -9.9
Broncos -10.0

What we see is that in their victories with Mahomes as the starter, the Chiefs fall from first to 10th in average point differential — but in their losses, they continue to lead the league. This is solid evidence that Kansas City topping the league in total point differential is more a product of what happens in its losses than its victories. It also suggests that common perceptions about what Reid does when he holds a second-half lead are based on at least some reality.

The data also appears to say that this isn’t just about Mahomes.

Winning Pt. Differential, 2013-2022

Team Diff
Patriots 15.6
Rams 13.4
Ravens 13.2
Bills 13.0
Cowboys 12.8
Eagles 12.7
49ers 12.6
Saints 12.4
Chiefs 12.3
Jaguars 12.1

Losing Pt. Differential, 2013-2022

Team Diff
Chiefs -7.4
Seahawks -7.5
Ravens -8.1
Chargers -8.4
Saints -9.5
Falcons -9.8
Patriots -10.0
Steelers -10.1
Cowboys -10.3
Broncos -10.4

Here we see that the pattern is very similar during Reid’s whole tenure with the Chiefs: in his wins, he falls from first to 9th in average point differential — but in his losses, he still leads the league.

Takeaway
While this data provide statistical (rather than anecdotal) evidence about Reid’s apparent tendencies when he holds a late-game lead, we shouldn’t get carried away. It still says nothing about his motivations in these situations. Does he do it because he is a gentleman who doesn’t want to run up a big lead, or because he believes it improves his chance to win not only that day’s game, but the games to come? We can only speculate about that.

But there is one thing we know for sure: during Reid’s time in Kansas City, no other NFL team has posted a better record. So while we can’t say why Reid does it, we can say it’s a successful strategy. While it’s possible that once in a while, the Chiefs might lose a game because they have acted to protect their lead, it’s hard to argue against so much long-term success.

**DaFace** · 07-03-2023, 01:25 PM

This is a lot of words that add nothing to the conversation. It's boring, but pretty much all good coaches go more conservative with the lead because mistakes can kill you while playing conservative drains the clock. Andy's not an idiot.

**HemiEd** · 07-03-2023, 01:25 PM

Good read, or Reid I mean, thanks for posting.

Pitt Gorilla · 07-03-2023, 01:26 PM

I'm still not convinced that's, necessarily, what the data show; it looks to me that we win games and when we don't, we remain in them until the end.

**Bob Dole** · 07-03-2023, 01:26 PM

I’m convinced it’s because he is preserving the playbook.

**DaFace** · 07-03-2023, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob Dole

I’m convinced it’s because he is preserving the playbook.

That too.

frozenchief · 07-03-2023, 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaFace

This is a lot of words that add nothing to the conversation. It's boring, but pretty much all good coaches go more conservative with the lead because mistakes can kill you while playing conservative drains the clock. Andy's not an idiot.

While I agree with your reasoning, I don't think it's the whole picture. Andy deliberately keeps plays and formations under wraps so other teams don't see what he's cooked up. When the Chiefs are sufficiently ahead, there's no reason to play something that nobody has seen. As the season progresses, and particularly in the playoffs, it is a real advantage to bring out plays that nobody has seen.

**wazu** · 07-03-2023, 01:33 PM

So how does this approach account for comeback wins? If the Chiefs have a late comeback and win by 1 point, do we look at the final score and assume Andy took his foot off the gas?

ToxSocks · 07-03-2023, 01:37 PM

Keep up the great work, Big Red!

ReynardMuldrake · 07-03-2023, 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob Dole

I’m convinced it’s because he is preserving the playbook.

Andy has that poker player gene, that's for sure.

**RealSNR** · 07-03-2023, 01:41 PM

Wallcrawler and the gang who likes to say “Reidtard” is gonna get all fired up about this

stevieray · 07-03-2023, 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob Dole

I’m convinced it’s because he is preserving the playbook.

iI thought EB was calling the plays?

ReynardMuldrake · 07-03-2023, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by frozenchief

While I agree with your reasoning, I don't think it's the whole picture. Andy deliberately keeps plays and formations under wraps so other teams don't see what he's cooked up. When the Chiefs are sufficiently ahead, there's no reason to play something that nobody has seen. As the season progresses, and particularly in the playoffs, it is a real advantage to bring out plays that nobody has seen.

Team opsec is honestly really impressive. How many times have we seen them bust out something totally new in the playoffs, then in the postgame interview, the players are like, "Oh yeah, we've been practicing that all season."

If he keeps those a secret, you have to wonder what else Andy is saving in his pocket for high-leverage situations.

**Bearcat** · 07-03-2023, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wazu

So how does this approach account for comeback wins? If the Chiefs have a late comeback and win by 1 point, do we look at the final score and assume Andy took his foot off the gas?

It's the strategy, not the result. They play relatively vanilla in the regular season... players have mentioned it and it's pretty obvious at times.

That doesn't mean they won't try to win games (see that Falcons game a couple years ago when they did nothing on offense for 3.5 quarters and then were suddenly a well oiled machine... for just one example). And it obviously doesn't mean they can't win games playing vanilla, or they do it every down of every regular season game, or they "aren't trying" or "don't care".

It's just playing with calculated risks associated with either going down early and needing to come back, or softening up and hoping the opponent doesn't complete a comeback.

The Raiders game at the end of the season was one game where I thought it really stood out in the opposite approach... they had an edge and were digging around the playbook a little. It was CLEARLY a tuneup game after weeks of being in the dog days of the season.

AdolfOliverBush · 07-03-2023, 01:51 PM

AH Pride should shut it down between the Super Bowl and Training camp, except for maybe a couple of draft related articles. Or maybe shut it down, period.

07-03-2023, 01:19 PM
jjchieffan Supporter Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Highlandville, MO Casino cash: $92248	AH Pride article. Statistics show Reid takes his foot off the gas Now there’s evidence: Andy Reid slows down his offense with a second-half lead We’ve found some statistics showing that Kansas City might be doing just what fans have long suspected. By John Dixon on July 3, 2023 11:58 am In a couple of recent discussions regarding Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid’s perceived tendency to “take his foot off the gas” when he holds a late lead, I’ve brought up a statistic I discovered just over a month ago, when I was preparing an article about how the Chiefs have dominated the NFL since Reid took over the team — especially since quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been the starter. It shows that since Mahomes took the reins, Kansas City has led all teams in point differential — and since Reid was hired in 2013, it is second only to the New England Patriots. Point Differential, 2018-2022 Team Diff Chiefs 641 Ravens 546 Patriots 455 Bills 439 Saints 427 Cowboys 347 49ers 297 Rams 260 Packers 257 Seahawks 211 Point Differential, 2013-2022 Team Diff Patriots 1219 Chiefs 1110 Seahawks 779 Ravens 662 Saints 583 Cowboys 507 Eagles 437 Bills 428 Steelers 416 Packers 409 To me, the fact that the Chiefs have won their games by a larger total margin than almost every other team suggested that this narrative about Reid might be just a bit overblown. It’s not hard to believe that Reid seems to call a different game when he is protecting a second-half lead — but if his team leads all others in point differential, is he really doing something that other coaches don’t do? Some argued, however, that this point differential statistic is skewed because the Chiefs have won so many games. In their view, this masks many narrow wins after Reid began protecting late-game leads — and says nothing about losses that might have happened as a result. So I went back to the data. This time, I calculated each team’s average point differential only for the games it won — and also for the games it lost. Winning Pt. Differential, 2018-2022 Team Diff Patriots 17.0 Bills 14.5 Cowboys 14.1 Ravens 14.1 49ers 14.1 Rams 12.8 Saints 12.6 Buccaneers 12.6 Colts 12.5 Chiefs 12.0 Losing Pt. Differential, 2018-2022 Team Diff Chiefs -6.9 Ravens -6.9 Seahawks -7.5 Chargers -8.9 Saints -9.1 Buccaneers -9.6 49ers -9.8 Cowboys -9.8 Colts -9.9 Broncos -10.0 What we see is that in their victories with Mahomes as the starter, the Chiefs fall from first to 10th in average point differential — but in their losses, they continue to lead the league. This is solid evidence that Kansas City topping the league in total point differential is more a product of what happens in its losses than its victories. It also suggests that common perceptions about what Reid does when he holds a second-half lead are based on at least some reality. The data also appears to say that this isn’t just about Mahomes. Winning Pt. Differential, 2013-2022 Team Diff Patriots 15.6 Rams 13.4 Ravens 13.2 Bills 13.0 Cowboys 12.8 Eagles 12.7 49ers 12.6 Saints 12.4 Chiefs 12.3 Jaguars 12.1 Losing Pt. Differential, 2013-2022 Team Diff Chiefs -7.4 Seahawks -7.5 Ravens -8.1 Chargers -8.4 Saints -9.5 Falcons -9.8 Patriots -10.0 Steelers -10.1 Cowboys -10.3 Broncos -10.4 Here we see that the pattern is very similar during Reid’s whole tenure with the Chiefs: in his wins, he falls from first to 9th in average point differential — but in his losses, he still leads the league. Takeaway While this data provide statistical (rather than anecdotal) evidence about Reid’s apparent tendencies when he holds a late-game lead, we shouldn’t get carried away. It still says nothing about his motivations in these situations. Does he do it because he is a gentleman who doesn’t want to run up a big lead, or because he believes it improves his chance to win not only that day’s game, but the games to come? We can only speculate about that. But there is one thing we know for sure: during Reid’s time in Kansas City, no other NFL team has posted a better record. So while we can’t say why Reid does it, we can say it’s a successful strategy. While it’s possible that once in a while, the Chiefs might lose a game because they have acted to protect their lead, it’s hard to argue against so much long-term success.
Posts: 13,318

07-03-2023, 01:25 PM	#2
DaFace Kind of a mod Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Donkey Land Casino cash: $-1663101	This is a lot of words that add nothing to the conversation. It's boring, but pretty much all good coaches go more conservative with the lead because mistakes can kill you while playing conservative drains the clock. Andy's not an idiot.
Posts: 53,124	13 0

07-03-2023, 01:25 PM	#3
HemiEd Supporter Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Ozarks Casino cash: $-289436	Good read, or Reid I mean, thanks for posting.
Posts: 34,810	3 0

07-03-2023, 01:26 PM	#4
Pitt Gorilla Banned! Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: NOT Columbia, MO 65201 Casino cash: $50194	I'm still not convinced that's, necessarily, what the data show; it looks to me that we win games and when we don't, we remain in them until the end. __________________ Your son is a bench warmer because of your weak genetics not because of the coach Norlin Mommsen is disgusting.
Posts: 47,330	3 1

07-03-2023, 01:26 PM	#5
Bob Dole King Shit of **** Mountain Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Texarkana, Texas Casino cash: $-1124563	I’m convinced it’s because he is preserving the playbook.
Posts: 51,540	14 0

07-03-2023, 01:33 PM	#8
wazu ... Join Date: May 2002 Location: Kansas City, MO Casino cash: $-1477705 VARSITY	So how does this approach account for comeback wins? If the Chiefs have a late comeback and win by 1 point, do we look at the final score and assume Andy took his foot off the gas?
Posts: 30,624

07-03-2023, 01:37 PM	#9
ToxSocks Needs more middle fingers Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: San Diego Casino cash: $2133063	Keep up the great work, Big Red! __________________ Life is like a dick. Sometimes it gets hard for no reason, but it can't stay hard forever.
Posts: 65,925

07-03-2023, 01:51 PM	#15
AdolfOliverBush Banned Join Date: Apr 2019 Casino cash: $5920400	AH Pride should shut it down between the Super Bowl and Training camp, except for maybe a couple of draft related articles. Or maybe shut it down, period.
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