KC's Bye Week Check-In

[Chiefspants]

Chiefs Record 7-4

Point Differential +52 (6th)

Chiefs Offense DVOA Rankings - 2nd

Chiefs Passing Offense DVOA - 1st

Chiefs Rushing Offense DVOA - 21st

PPG 28.0 (5th)

Chiefs Defense DVOA Rankings - 17th

Chiefs Pass Defense DVOA - 5th

Chiefs Run Defense DVOA - 31st

Chiefs Special Teams DVOA - 9th

Patrick Mahomes Stats
COMP ATT COMP% Yards TD INT TD% INT% AY/A PY/G
212 323 (65.6%) 2,808 19 2 5.9 (5th) 0.6 (1st) 9.6 (1st) 312.0 (3rd)

If the playoffs were today…

AFC Seeding..

1: Patriots (9-1)
2: Ravens (8-2)
3: Chiefs (7-4)
4: Colts (6-4)
5: Bills (7-3)
6: Texans (6-4)

Next Out: Raiders

Chiefspants’ shamelessly subjective summary:

At the Bye, the Chiefs are 7-4. Around the Chiefs fandom, you will find perhaps the most negativity from the Chiefs general fangroups (i.e. Facebook & Arrowhead Addict) since the start of Reid’s tenure. The root of this negativity is perhaps summed up with this tweet

The Kansas City Chiefs have lost by 7 points or less in their last 13 losses, including the playoffs. That is the longest streak in NFL history.

— Rany Jazayerli (@jazayerli) November 10, 2019

I think there was a hope that Andy would have moved on from those excruciating, late game heartbreaks in the Mahomes era. This has not been the case, and some parts of the fandom are feeling it (even after yesterday's win).

There are positives. Perhaps the best way to look at the team is to look how they’re doing with the goals that were set out at the start of the year.

Before the year, the Chiefs fandom said we simply needed Spags to put us in “the middle of the pack” with the elite offense on the team. The Chiefs are showing real signs that they’re progressing to this goal. The Chiefs Defense is 17th in DVOA - and the running D, while still a weakness, has shown some real signs of life that were absent last year. Seeing Frank Clark turn in some "100 mil" games has been incredibly encouraging as well. A lot of criticism has been levied at the offense at certain points this season, but they still rank in the Top 5 in almost every category (with Red Zone offense being a critical exception). However, the change from being the far and away #1 to “elite Top 5” has definitely been felt with the inconsistent and shaky play from the Defense, Special Teams, and Reid’s play calling.

Reid’s clock management continues to be a concern, as it has his entire career. Of course, these issues are magnified to their highest degree in close games. There is a general thought among the fandom that we haven’t seen this team at 100% in any game this season (outside of, perhaps, the Ravens game). The team has also suffered some brutal losses. Including a brutal loss at home to the Texans (a game that was much closer than it felt) - and suffered losses where the other team followed the Patriots playbook from the AFC championship game beat for beat (Colts, Texans, Titans). There is reason to be hopeful, as the run defense turned in stout performances beyond what it ever did last year (Broncos, Vikings, Chargers), but they have been inconsistent, turning in a brutal performance against the Titans with confusing substitution/roster decisions by our coaches to boot (Resting Pennel after a great performance against the Vikings, for instance). Still, now is the time I’ll insert a random thought experiment before we look at the rest of the season.

If before the year, we found out that we’d lose Patrick for 3 games (with him hobbled by an Ankle Sprain for 7 that he played), Eric Fisher for 8, Hill for 5, Clark for 2, Tardiff for 2, Watkins for 3, Ogbah with a season ender, and Fuller for 5 all before the Bye, how would you have guessed their schedule would have shaken out? Here’s mine.

Spoiler!

Jags W
Oak W
Bal L
Det W
Ind W
Hou L
Den W
GB L
Min L
Ten W
SD W

So, before the season, I would have been quite happy with being 7-4 at this point. However, in the context of this season and considering the standings in the AFC, we really, really need to be 8-3 and have no excuses for dropping the Titans game. Reid going full Marty conservative (with a dash of indecision in the mix) continues to be a major concern. Reliable output from the RB (without devastating turnovers) is also a problem. There have been multiple times this season where I (and much of the fandom) have continued to feel legit anger towards Kareem Hunt for this season. Darrel Williams turned in a good performance last night - can we just find a way to put the fumbles behind us from here on out?

With that all said, the bye could not be at a more ideal time. We have a looming showdown with Oakland that could honestly make or break our season with a trip to Foxboro coming right after. Two straight losses and this team will be on the outside looking in the AFC playoff picture. The good news is that the team will likely be the healthiest it’s been all year against Oakland. Hopefully Arrowhead can channel its mid-90’s regular season home field advantage for that game as well. Let’s take a peek at the schedule from here to the end of the year.

Spoiler!

OAK
@NE
DEN
@CHI
LAC

In my estimation, the team can do no worse than 4-1 from here on out. The good news is that we’ve seen incarnations of Andy’s teams that take a half season to “gel” (as Clay as pointed out). Patrick losing his mobility hurt the offense way more than what would show up on a statsheet. Last year, when Andy's original playcalls would blow up, Patrick made waves by improvising with his legs until someone came open ala schoolyard style. He's managed to do this a few times this year, but when his mobility has been particularly limited he's been unable to capture that magic. Him feeling 100% after the bye is a great sign for the team's future potential. If the team gets healthy and Andy can figure out what’s going on with his running game, the ceiling is as high as it’s ever been (and maybe higher, if the Run D is for real). While a first round bye might be out of the question, are we really worried about how this team can perform on the road? Nah. If Andy can help us launch and Patrick can guide us through close games in January, the sky continues to be the limit.

TL;DR - this team can totes put it together and has Super Bowl potential with Patrick Mahomes ahead of the ship.

[Hammock Parties]

we beat NE the little sissy collective in chiefs kingdom will find it's balls

right now they are ****ing post op

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

we beat NE the little sissy collective in chiefs kingdom will find it's balls

right now they are ****ing post op

A statement win like that would definitely restore confidence about the team's playoff potential.

I don't particularly like the idea of us venturing to Baltimore in the event we make it to the 2nd weekend. It'd be great if we could make that a matchup with NE instead (yes, we could very well lose that one, too).

[ThaVirus]

At this point, with three of the remaining five being home division games and one of the remainder being against a team we’re likely to meet in the postseason, every game left on the schedule aside from Chicago is a must-win. Even that’s looking like a must-win for morale purposes given how horrid the Bears have looked lately.

We need to win out.

[comochiefsfan]

Pretty impressive that we’re first in passing DVOA.

It feels like we still have TONS of room for improvement there.

[Why Not?]

Do you mean the team can’t do any worse than 4-1 in a prediction sense or in a make the playoffs sense? Because I think 3-2 gets in that tournament albeit as possibly a WC. But I think the Raiders have at least 2 losses in them including 12/1. 10-6 may win the division anyway.

[Why Not?]

But I do think 5-0 will be necessary to have a shot at a bye

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by Why Not?

Do you mean the team can’t do any worse than 4-1 in a prediction sense or in a make the playoffs sense? Because I think 3-2 gets in that tournament albeit as possibly a WC. But I think the Raiders have at least 2 losses in them including 12/1. 10-6 may win the division anyway.

I worry that 3-2 puts us in a precarious position up against the Bills, Titans and Texans. One of the four teams would be the odd team out, and if we have two more losses against the AFC I wouldn’t want to put that to chance. I think 11-5 is where we have to be at a minimum.

Of course, the Raiders could go full Raiders and the Colts and Texans could bottom out completely too, but I don’t want to count on that.

[O.city]

Just win out.

12-4 gets you a bye. The Ravens will lose another game or two for sure, the Pats are struggling.

[Clyde Frog]

Originally Posted by O.city

Just win out.

12-4 gets you a bye. The Ravens will lose another game or two for sure, the Pats are struggling.

You sure about the Ravens losing again? The only team they play that I could see beating them is the 9ers. However, every time Jimmy G. drops back I think it's going to be an INT ala Phyllis. Butt Rammers, Steelers, Jets and Browns are garbage. Bills IDK about. I don't care about them, turn the channel if they are on TV and know basically nothing about them. Are they a product of the schedule this year or are they decent?


Pats are propped up on that schedule. Not their fault, it's just what it is this year.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

we beat NE the little sissy collective in chiefs kingdom will find it's balls

right now they are ****ing post op

If we want to beat NE we need to cut out the loose ball handling and gift fumbles. It seems we average a forced fumble a game now.

On top of that we have to get picks when QB's like Rivers gift them to us. We could have had 6 ints last night with a little concentration.

No unforced errors and no stupid decisions on the field. It's really not much to ask. Just don't beat ourselves...

[Dunerdr]

Originally Posted by O.city

Just win out.

12-4 gets you a bye. The Ravens will lose another game or two for sure, the Pats are struggling.

if the ravens are dropping two its got to be the next two against the rams and 9ers. its a cakewalk after that.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by O.city

Just win out.

12-4 gets you a bye. The Ravens will lose another game or two for sure, the Pats are struggling.

I wish I had that confidence. They are flat out obliterating teams right now.

[suzzer99]

It's weird how last year I was sure the whole key was HFA.

This year I'm fine with not even getting a bye, since it means we can get a nice tune up game at home and hopefully get hot at the right time. It always sucks a little after the bye facing some red hot team that just won a playoff game.

[MahiMike]

I really feel like we'll beat NE this time.