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Old 09-19-2021, 09:24 PM  
TLO TLO is offline
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Let's talk about the LA Chargers ( Week 3)
We're on to the Chargers, and our first noon game of the season.
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Old 09-25-2021, 11:14 PM   #211
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Originally Posted by BlackOp View Post
With gambling being embedded into the NFL out in the open...I'm starting to watch money lines on Chiefs games. By "money lines", I mean where the majority of betters are putting their cash...and see if there is correlation to how games are officiated and ebb-n-flow from the coaching staffs.

Some games you see a ton of flags and sometimes, very few....

So from the below chart, 85% of all cash is on the game being above 54.5 points.

So if the final score is 30-24...Vegas makes a killing. This site is saying take the under.

72% has KC winning by more than 7 points...so again a 30-24 score, Vegas cleans up. This site is saying to pick the Chiefs to beat the Chargers by more than 7...which goes against the money line.

Chargers winning obviously negates the spread all together...

The negative money line (Vegas) dictates this will be a close, average scoring game

I'm going to keep a mock tally...if I bet 100% on whichever side has the least amount of money on it. See how it averages out.

Screen-Shot-2021-09-24-at-2-17-34-PM

OK. Now, that sounds interesting and fun. I hope you'll do this for all of your games for the season.
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Old 09-26-2021, 03:56 AM   #212
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Originally Posted by Halfcan View Post
Chiefs have the same amount of sacks as the Chargers-3

So give Mahomes all day to throw and....
You're really defending the Chiefs pass rush???

How many pressures do they have? How about the Chargers? Sacks are just part of it...
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Old 09-26-2021, 04:05 AM   #213
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I'll be really honest.

I think KC is going to lose this game.

Let me be really clear-I still think this team will be in the Super Bowl; I just think that the defense is totally dysfunctional right now, and some guys need to sit (Sorensen, Niemann), and some of the younger players are going to make mistakes and we're going to have to ride with them. I think by season's end we'll be in good shape for the play-offs.
If we win, it'll be because of one of two narratives:
1/ Spags has some amazing game plan to throw Herbert off his game. Recall that Spags has never really planned for Herbert before. In the first game last season, Taylor was supposed to be the starter until the last minute. And then in week 17, we had the bye so no reason to show anything. We need a Belichickian performance and the defense to actually execute on some semi-competent level.
2/ Mahomes is just Mahomes and plays out of his mind.
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Old 09-26-2021, 04:11 AM   #214
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Originally Posted by TEX View Post
You're really defending the Chiefs pass rush???

How many pressures do they have? How about the Chargers? Sacks are just part of it...
The Chiefs pass rush has been horrrrrrible, and while I'm not remotely trying to defend it....

The Chiefs have 10 pressures (tied for last in the league with Indy) and the next worst is the Chargers with 13.

And I think safe to say the Chiefs going up against the Browns OL (one of the best in the NFL) and the Ravens rushing offense would tend to bias those figures downward. Versus playing the WFT and Dallas as the Chargers have.

So it's probably a push.
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Old 09-26-2021, 03:08 PM   #215
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Originally Posted by BlackOp View Post
With gambling being embedded into the NFL out in the open...I'm starting to watch money lines on Chiefs games. By "money lines", I mean where the majority of betters are putting their cash...and see if there is correlation to how games are officiated and ebb-n-flow from the coaching staffs.

Some games you see a ton of flags and sometimes, very few....

So from the below chart, 85% of all cash is on the game being above 54.5 points.

So if the final score is 30-24...Vegas makes a killing. This site is saying take the under.

72% has KC winning by more than 7 points...so again a 30-24 score, Vegas cleans up. This site is saying to pick the Chiefs to beat the Chargers by more than 7...which goes against the money line.

Chargers winning obviously negates the spread all together...

The negative money line (Vegas) dictates this will be a close, average scoring game

I'm going to keep a mock tally...if I bet 100% on whichever side has the least amount of money on it. See how it averages out.

Screen-Shot-2021-09-24-at-2-17-34-PM
So I mock dropped $100 on both unders..which is essentially the Vegas/house line..

This fictitious pay out was +115...so I now have $430.00.

Did anyone notice the Chargers late TD called back on a ticky tack? It shed 4 points off the 54.5 final line which resulted in Vegas cashing in on the 85% down on the over.

The 4th down PI secured the 72% Chiefs 7 point spread..

Remember the late negated 2 point conversion in the Ravens game..for illegal man down field on a 2 yard play? That also protected the spread..
Last edited by BlackOp; 09-26-2021 at 03:14 PM..
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Old 09-26-2021, 05:38 PM   #216
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Mahomes seems to be annoyed by people elevating Herbert too high.


Oh yeah he hates it.
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