*** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 ***

[duncan_idaho]

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Baseball Prospectus. The same idiots who gave the Royals the WORST odds to make the postseason of ANY American League team. The same people who thought the Royals would win 72 ****ing games.

Have no idea how you're conflating team stats to preseason projections. The latter are of course highly variable. Nobody can predict an MLB season and all systems have a 5-10 game standard deviation. Vegas said 80. If you knew that was wrong, you should've bet on it.

Stop reading this shit, it will rot your brain. They know stats, but they appear to severely undervalue bullpen, defense and baserunning. All of which we are good at.

I doubt you have any specific proof of what you're wiriitng here. It sounds right so it must be. (In reality, what *did* happen was DM plugged two huge weaknesses DH + back end bullpen into strengths and proj systems AND bettors and even you wouldn't predict that)

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by cosmo20002

Using this dumb reasoning for redefining baseball lingo, why are you insisting that Omar isn't the #9 hitter...because you know...he ****ing literally bats 9th

He batted 6th yesterday.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

They didn't tank. They were overperforming their record as indicated by their run differential.

Baseball is subject to great randomness. The Red Sox took the same group of characters that finish last in 2012 and won a WS with them in 2013 because a shitload of them had career years/aberrational performances. The next year they finished last again.

Chemistry doesn't prevent runs or drive them in.

Here's a separate question (not in reference to trades messing up team chemistry):

Detroit may not have tanked, but they clearly had a slump in the last two months of the regular season last year. Is that for the same reason?

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

They didn't tank. They were overperforming their record as indicated by their run differential.

Baseball is subject to great randomness. The Red Sox took the same group of characters that finish last in 2012 and won a WS with them in 2013 because a shitload of them had career years/aberrational performances. The next year they finished last again.

Chemistry doesn't prevent runs or drive them in.

I thought Oakland was something like +60 or +70 around the time of the Cespedes/Lester trade - am I not remembering that correctly?

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Bufkin

This year or last year?

This year.

I guess they had the Twins as the worst chance to make it. Royals second worst at 10 and 8 percent. Here is Baseball Prospectus preseason playoff odds, before any games were played.

LAA 67%
Boston 58%
Tampa 54%
Seattle 52% hahahha
Detroit 49%
Cleveland 38%
Oakland 37%
White Sox 27%
Toronto 27%
Yankees 22% Swing and a miss
Baltimore 20%
Texas 17%
Houston 14% EPIC FAIL
KC 10% Apparently having the best winning % in the 2nd half of last year and going to WS is meaningless
Twins 8%

Just a bunch of virgins sleeping on the hideaway bed in their mom's basement beating off to OBP stats and neglecting the others.

[C3HIEF3S]

Johnny Cueto will make his first start as a Royal on Friday in Toronto.

— Andy McCullough (@McCulloughStar) July 27, 2015

[C3HIEF3S]

Pretty obvious:

KC has not decided who will leave the rotation to make room for Cueto, but it's expected to come down to Chris Young and Jeremy Guthrie.

— Andy McCullough (@McCulloughStar) July 27, 2015

I don't see any way that Young stays in the rotation with his recent down-slide.

[BWillie]

I used to be more of a supporter for the run differential stat. But, I think in baseball it can be flawed.

High OBP, high K guys feast on garbage pitching. They feast on the #5 guy, long relief, or chodes you just put in when you are down and probably going to lose the game. These situations, they matter less. In the playoffs, you don't even see the #5 guy, so the fat high OBP guy doesn't get to feast upon these pitchers in the playoffs. Usually teams with shitty starting pitching, don't make the playoffs anyway, so this further skews the numbers.

This basically allows these players and teams to produce some gaudy looking numbers, when these other teams basically, in layman's terms, aren't trying their hardest and are saving their closers, set up man, and #1s and #2s for games that actually matter.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S

Pretty obvious:

KC has not decided who will leave the rotation to make room for Cueto, but it's expected to come down to Chris Young and Jeremy Guthrie.

— Andy McCullough (@McCulloughStar) July 27, 2015

I don't see any way that Young stays in the rotation with his recent down-slide.

I kind of want Guthrie to stay in the rotation, as long as it means we use Chris Young later in the year, in other situations and games that are meaningful.

(on second thought - edited)

[C3HIEF3S]

Eric Hosmer on acquiring Johnny Cueto: "It's a good time to be a Kansas City Royal."

— Andy McCullough (@McCulloughStar) July 27, 2015

[Great Expectations]

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S

Johnny Cueto will make his first start as a Royal on Friday in Toronto.

— Andy McCullough (@McCulloughStar) July 27, 2015

That would put him starting on 8/10! I purchased tickets to that game in a lightening offer a month or so ago. That will definitely be worth the 5 hour drive up and back.

[Ebolapox]

Originally Posted by BWillie

I don't see anyway Guthrie SHOULD stay in the rotation with his 5.4 ERA. But he will.

lol, sorry... had to kill the ghost edit

[ChiefsCountry]

Looking at the pitching rotation, moving Cueto to Friday allows Duffman to get his normal start on Thursday. You slide Cueto into Friday, Volquez on Saturday, and then Ventura on Sunday. Young goes to long relief.

[C3HIEF3S]

Rotation for Toronto series:
Thursday-Duffy
Friday-Cueto
Saturday-Ventura
Sunday-Volquez
Monday offday
Detroit series not determined yet

— Joel Goldberg (@goldbergkc) July 27, 2015

[cosmo20002]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

He batted 6th yesterday.

He's batting 8th tonight. Very confusing.