Chiefs Betting Preview: Patrick Mahomes Is Electric, but K.C. Will Really Miss Alex S

[vailpass]

Which one of you banged this guy's wife then wiped your dick on the curtains? Or was it Mahomes that he caught sneaking out the window?


Chiefs Betting Preview: Patrick Mahomes Is Electric, but K.C. Will Really Miss Alex Smith Under Center

Here at SI Gambling, we are going to unveil our NFL betting experts’ win total previews for all 32 NFL teams. Make sure to check out all of them, as well as the rest of our gambling content, at si.com/gambling.

Chiefs 2018 win total: 8 (-160 over, +140 under)

Chiefs 2017 record: 10-6

Key offseason acquisitions: WR Sammy Watkins, CB David Amerson, CB Kendall Fuller, LB Anthony Hitchens, NT Xavier Williams, CB Orlando Scandrick, RB Damien Williams, QB Chad Henne

Key offseason losses: QB Alex Smith, CB Marcus Peters, LB Tamba Hali, LB Derrick Johnson, CB Terrance Mitchell, CB Phillip Gaines, DT Bennie Logan, WR Albert Wilson, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, OL Zach Fulton, LB Ramik Wilson, OC Matt Nagy

Five things to keep in mind before betting the Chiefs' win total

1. Patrick Mahomes certainly raises the Chiefs’ offensive ceiling, however he also can greatly lower the unit’s floor. Mahomes’s electric arm talent can make it easy to forget how important Alex Smith was to this team. Per Warren Sharp in his 2018 Football Preview (a read I highly recommend for all football fans), Smith’s 1.35% interception rate only trails Tom Brady’s 1.3%. Kansas City’s +31 turnover differential over the past two seasons led the NFL, with Baltimore’s +22 and Philadelphia’s +17 ranking second and third respectively. That is a rather wide margin. Turnovers obviously play a huge role in a team’s success, but ending a contest without giving the ball away was especially imperative for the Chiefs.

During Smith’s entire time in K.C., the team won 77.6% of its games (38-11 record) in the regular season when he didn’t throw an interception. That number dropped to 44.4% (12-15 record) when he was picked off at least once. Mahomes will deliver more deep strikes through the air, but he will also be responsible for more negative plays, and that could end up being a major setback for this unit.

2. Another key for the Chiefs with Smith at the helm was setting the defense up for the best possible chance for success—although the defense didn’t take advantage last season (we’ll address that later). Per Football Outsiders, the average Chiefs opponent starting field position in 2017 was the 25.49-yard line, the third-best mark in that metric. That was largely due to three factors: Kansas City didn’t turn the ball over (a league-low 11 turnovers), the Chiefs averaged 34.7 yards per drive (sixth-best) and the team’s kickers did not miss many field goals to help out the opposition’s field position (41-45 on FGs, and only one miss from 50+ yards). Kansas City’s drives also lasted an average of 2:52, the eighth-longest time in the NFL.

With Mahomes as the signal-caller, there will be more explosive plays, meaning a likelier chance of drives taking up less clock. His higher turnover rate will also flip the field in the opponents’ favor more often than the Chiefs have been accustomed to in recent seasons. Having this version of Kansas City’s defense on with a shorter field to defend and on for a longer period of time is a recipe for disaster.

3. On the defensive side of the ball last year, the Chiefs weren’t just bad. They were flat-out abysmal. The unit ranked 30th in defensive efficiency. Losing safety Eric Berry to a ruptured Achilles in the first game of the season was a killer, yet Kansas City allowed a league-high 192.1 yards per game to wide receivers—including a whopping 90.3 YPG to opposing No. 1 wideouts (the next-worst mark was the Jets at 82.8 YPG)—and that falls on the cornerbacks. Acquiring Kendall Fuller from the Redskins in the Smith trade will be a significant boost in the slot. However the team’s coverage on the outside will be a glaring question mark, especially after dealing ball-hawking corner Marcus Peters to the Rams.

This unit will be relying on a 29-year-old safety in Berry with two major injuries already in his past and a 29-year-old pass rusher in Justin Houston who has missed 16 games in the past three seasons. The Chiefs will need those two to be a beacon of health this campaign for any hope of even a league-average defense.

4. The Chiefs have big-time weapons on offense, headlined by Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and offseason acquisition Sammy Watkins. But don’t underestimate the impact of Matt Nagy leaving to be the Bears head coach and replacing him with a first-time NFL offensive coordinator in Eric Bieniemy. Kansas City was fortunate that going from Doug Pederson to Nagy as OC in 2016 was a seamless transition, but will there be a smooth change this time?

Bieniemy was Kansas City’s running backs coach from 2013-17, but his only experience as offensive coordinator was for the University of Colorado, his alma mater, in 2011 and 2012. Colorado’s offense finished 92nd in yards per game and 109th in scoring in 2011, and fell to 119th in YPG and 120th in scoring the following year.

5. It doesn’t get much tougher than Kansas City’s opening stretch: at Chargers, at Steelers, vs. 49ers, at Broncos, vs. Jaguars, at Patriots. Its final six games isn’t a cakewalk either: at Rams, bye, at Raiders, vs. Ravens, vs. Chargers, at Seahawks, vs. Raiders. Going from playing the AFC East and a weaker-than-usual NFC East last season to the AFC North and NFC West, playing a first-place AFC schedule and residing in the AFC West doesn’t give the Chiefs many opportunities for easy wins.

PICK: UNDER 8 Wins

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/08/18/ch...ver-under-odds

[PmCakes]

Is that what you call a level headed sports fan who wants to celebrate PMII for what HE is going to accomplish as an individual and not have to compare him to his predecessor for validation?

The constant Alex bashing takes away from the potential greatness that Pat is going to create for himself. When Pat hits a 40 yard bomb off his back leg on a game winning drive I want it to be about Pat. Not a dialogue about how Alex Smith couldn't do it. Is that too much to ask of you simpletons?

[milkman]

Originally Posted by PmCakes

Milkman: Goole search will find Charley Casserley has been raving about Smith (guy with bigger credentials than Cosell)
http://www.nfl.com/videos/up-to-the-...Cousins-in-D-C

“But, you can just tell by the three days, four days we’ve been on the field, how much the playbook has grown. Because his, you know, he’s just not a thrower, he can run, you have to respect his run. We got a little bit of option stuff coming in and stuff like that. It helps us all out as an offense and as a defense because the [Philadelphia] Eagles run similar plays with Carson Wentz and so they get a guy on our team that they see that every day. So, you know the qualities that he brings as a man and as a football player are zero-to-none. He’s a great person, great personality, great leader… and we love him.” - Morgan Moses

“One thing about Alex, he is the smartest guy I have ever been around, without a doubt, and he is in great shape,” coach Jay Gruden said. “He can move around and he can handle a lot of different things.”

--

I find it amusing that people here actually think Cousins has a larger skillset than Smith when Gruden and the players have been raving about how they can actually open up the play book now in Washington

At the end of the day, the ability to run is a nice side, but it is not essential to success.

As for smart, tell why a smart QB leaves 7 to 11 seconds on the playclock when the team is trying to burn clock?

The idea that Smith is smart is a myth.

He is simply to pull the trigger when there are plays to be made, and he leaves far too many plays on the field.

It's great that the Redskins will be able to open up the playbook, then get to watch as Smith pulls the ball down under false pressure and run while leaving a big play down the field that Cousins would have made.

As for Casserly, he's an idiot.

[milkman]

Originally Posted by PmCakes

Is that what you call a level headed sports fan who wants to celebrate PMII for what HE is going to accomplish as an individual and not have to compare him to his predecessor for validation?

The constant Alex bashing takes away from the potential greatness that Pat is going to create for himself. When Pat hits a 40 yard bomb off his back leg on a game winning drive I want it to be about Pat. Not a dialogue about how Alex Smith couldn't do it. Is that too much to ask of you simpletons?

To paraphrase an old saying, you protest too much.

[NJChiefsFan]

Originally Posted by lcarus

I think he meant 6-8 wins/7-9 losses.

And here I was thinking I had made a funny.

As for the Charley Casserly reference, I didn't realize people still took his opinion seriously. The game passed him by a long time ago.

[Dayze]

Charlie Casserly ?




The same guy who got the Saints entire draft worth of picks for the Ricky Williams trade and did jack shit with it?

Of course a guy like that would love Alice.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by PmCakes

Is that what you call a level headed sports fan who wants to celebrate PMII for what HE is going to accomplish as an individual and not have to compare him to his predecessor for validation?

The constant Alex bashing takes away from the potential greatness that Pat is going to create for himself. When Pat hits a 40 yard bomb off his back leg on a game winning drive I want it to be about Pat. Not a dialogue about how Alex Smith couldn't do it. Is that too much to ask of you simpletons?

Dude. **** Alex.

Sorry if you like him. Most of us on this forum don’t.

Deal with it.

[Molitoth]

Originally Posted by milkman

It's great that the Redskins will be able to open up the playbook, then get to watch as Smith pulls the ball down under false pressure and run while leaving a big play down the field that Cousins would have made.

boom. Truth.

[BleedingRed]

I didn't draft Redskins kicker for no reason

[rico]

Originally Posted by Priest31kc

Why does Pmcakes appear to be an Alexsexual in disguise? Is it just me?

Because he is one. PA Squirrel Tits tried doing the same shit.

[PmCakes]

Originally Posted by milkman

At the end of the day, the ability to run is a nice side, but it is not essential to success.

As for smart, tell why a smart QB leaves 7 to 11 seconds on the playclock when the team is trying to burn clock?

The idea that Smith is smart is a myth.

He is simply to pull the trigger when there are plays to be made, and he leaves far too many plays on the field.

It's great that the Redskins will be able to open up the playbook, then get to watch as Smith pulls the ball down under false pressure and run while leaving a big play down the field that Cousins would have made.

As for Casserly, he's an idiot.

You must be on crack if you think Cousins will perform better in Minnesota. His new O-line is bottom five (maybe even worse than Seattle's) and Kirk had one of the most talented O-lines and receiving groups with the Skins. He was criticized for trying to play it safe to protect his contract negotiations and when his true colors showed he was throwing picks and fumbling the ball at a much higher rate than Alex did. So when all the talk here is about how Patrick has to run for his life just remember Smith was doing that for several years all without losing the rock. Thus, I'm confident Kirk's turnover rate increases even further.

[PmCakes]

Originally Posted by milkman

At the end of the day, the ability to run is a nice side, but it is not essential to success.

As for smart, tell why a smart QB leaves 7 to 11 seconds on the playclock when the team is trying to burn clock?

The idea that Smith is smart is a myth.

He is simply to pull the trigger when there are plays to be made, and he leaves far too many plays on the field.

It's great that the Redskins will be able to open up the playbook, then get to watch as Smith pulls the ball down under false pressure and run while leaving a big play down the field that Cousins would have made.

As for Casserly, he's an idiot.

Alex threw it deep at a very efficient rate to Hill and Kelce.
From what I saw the other day on PFF in a clean pocket he was #1 in the NFL
Turnover rate it's not even close, Alex is far better than Kirk.

There are definitely a few patterns that Smith can't throw effectively but from following the news it sounds like Gruden's playbook (quite similar to Andy's) has been hampered by Cousins's inability to run options/RPO. So much that players have been praising the variety of plays they can actually put on the field now.

[Halfcan]

Originally Posted by PmCakes

Alex threw it deep at a very efficient rate to Hill and Kelce.
From what I saw the other day on PFF in a clean pocket he was #1 in the NFL
Turnover rate it's not even close, Alex is far better than Kirk.

There are definitely a few patterns that Smith can't throw effectively but from following the news it sounds like Gruden's playbook (quite similar to Andy's) has been hampered by Cousins's inability to run options/RPO. So much that players have been praising the variety of plays they can actually put on the field now.

Nobody Cares!

[Fish]

Originally Posted by PmCakes

Alex threw it deep at a very efficient rate to Hill and Kelce.
From what I saw the other day on PFF in a clean pocket he was #1 in the NFL
Turnover rate it's not even close, Alex is far better than Kirk.

There are definitely a few patterns that Smith can't throw effectively but from following the news it sounds like Gruden's playbook (quite similar to Andy's) has been hampered by Cousins's inability to run options/RPO. So much that players have been praising the variety of plays they can actually put on the field now.

Smith was always a training camp star. His problem is pocket presence and poise under pressure. He plays scared too often, and when he does it eliminates a big portion of the playbook and makes the offense predictable. Look beyond last year, to Smith's full body of work. You'll see a guy who excels when everything else is working. But when the offense runs into any kind of adversity, he's never going to be the guy who leads the team over it or makes the other guys around him better. He's just good enough to break your heart over and over in the games that matter.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by PmCakes

You must be on crack if you think Cousins will perform better in Minnesota. His new O-line is bottom five (maybe even worse than Seattle's) and Kirk had one of the most talented O-lines and receiving groups with the Skins. He was criticized for trying to play it safe to protect his contract negotiations and when his true colors showed he was throwing picks and fumbling the ball at a much higher rate than Alex did. So when all the talk here is about how Patrick has to run for his life just remember Smith was doing that for several years all without losing the rock. Thus, I'm confident Kirk's turnover rate increases even further.

This is how I know not to read anything you write............

Are you serious or????

I could name 15 teams with better receiving options then Redskins last year EASY.

[PmCakes]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

This is how I know not to read anything you write............

Are you serious or????

I could name 15 teams with better receiving options then Redskins last year EASY.

You talk like you have a small penis.

Can you read? I said with the Skins. He had above average talent last year.
The year prior he had Garcon, Reed, Crowder, Davis, Thompson, Desean Jackson.

That's a Quarterbacks dream right there. You don't get any deeper than that.