why the 'draftniks' and 'armchair GM's' crack me up ...

[Hootie]

I was reading Kiper's redraft of 2009 on Reddit today and I'm going to post it here:

Here you go! I was going to post the whole thing originally, but it's a lot of text and I was worried people wouldn't want to have to scroll through it all to read other comments.
(1.) Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB
Stafford's actual slot: No. 1 overall
Detroit's actual pick: Stafford
He's been a good QB with bouts of greatness, and while you can call modern passing stats inflated, Stafford is on a pace to eclipse 50,000 passing yards in his career. He's safely past 21,000 yards and is barely 27 years old, and my guess is his best football is in front of him. He isn't the star at his position that the No. 2 pick on this list is, but Stafford could play another 10 good years.
(2.) St. Louis Rams: Clay Matthews, OLB
Matthews' actual slot: No. 26 overall
St. Louis' actual pick: Jason Smith, OT
Pete Carroll recently said he failed to recognize how great Matthews was while he coached him at USC, but Pete didn't exactly fail Matthews, who still went in Round 1 and has become a star. He has 61.0 sacks, and could have more if Green Bay didn't require his versatility. At 28, he shows no real signs of slowing, either.
(3.) Kansas City Chiefs: LeSean McCoy, RB
McCoy's actual slot: No. 53 overall
Kansas City's actual pick: Tyson Jackson, DE
I'm breaking my rules on positional value in having McCoy so high, but whom would you put ahead of him here? He leads the draft class in rushing yards with 6,792, and he's not exactly washed up, as he hasn't missed a game in either of the past two seasons, and won't even turn 27 until July. A 10,000-yard career wouldn't be a surprise.
(4.) Seattle Seahawks: Julian Edelman, WR
Edelman's actual slot: No. 232 overall
Seattle's actual pick: Aaron Curry, LB
I know, I know. Call me crazy, but remember this involves future production too, and Edelman has a great case there. He has 197 catches during the past two seasons combined, which is third in the NFL. He has a team-friendly deal through 2017, and you can make an argument that he's really just hitting his prime now, as he caught just 69 passes in his first four seasons as he slowly moved up the depth chart and made the adjustments needed after playing QB in college. I had a GM recently tell me Edelman is "the toughest cover in the NFL right now," and if you watched the Super Bowl you can see why. Maybe there's some recency bias here, but I won't lose sleep over it.
(5.) New York Jets: Vontae Davis, CB
Davis' actual slot: No. 25 overall
New York's actual pick: Mark Sanchez, QB
He has been one of the top few cover corners in the NFL during the past couple of seasons, and is showing no signs of slowing down. Based on that alone, he's worth plenty. He's second among players in this draft class with 17 career INTs, but no corner from the 2009 draft is currently at Davis' level. He and Darrelle Revis would have been a decent pair.
(6.) Cincinnati Bengals: Alex Mack, C
Mack's actual slot: No. 21 overall
Cincinnati's actual pick: Andre Smith, OT
He was a starter from day one, and has quietly been one of the best centers in the league every single year since 2009. When he was injured in 2014 it totally derailed the Cleveland run game. It seems crazy to see a center go this high, but Mack went pretty high in the actual draft, too.
(7.) Oakland Raiders: Mike Wallace, WR
Wallace's actual slot: No. 84 overall
Oakland's actual pick: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR
Wallace, who leads the 2009 draft class in both receptions (375) and yards (5,834), is easily one of the top steals in the class, but loses a little ground (namely to Edelman) because you have to wonder if we've already seen the best of him. Since his breakout 2010 season where he became the top deep threat in the league not named Calvin Johnson, he hasn't quite been the same. Now he has a chance to become the No. 1 option for the emerging Teddy Bridgewater. It's funny, but Wallace's skill set totally fits the old Raiders draft profile, too.
(8.) Jacksonville Jaguars: Arian Foster, RB
Foster's actual slot: Undrafted
Jacksonville's actual pick: Eugene Monroe, OT
Easily the top steal of 2009, Foster went undrafted, falling on injury questions, fumble issues and (of course) positional value. (All of those things can of course be disputed -- I'm just stating what the reality was from the team perspective at the time.) He's second only to McCoy in rushing yards for this class (6,309) and also has more than 2,000 receiving yards. Foster dips slightly on future potential, having missed time in each of the past two seasons.
(9.) Green Bay Packers: Sebastian Vollmer, OT
Vollmer's actual slot: No. 58 overall
Green Bay's actual pick: B.J. Raji, DT
The pride of Dusseldorf has dealt with some injuries, but when healthy, he's among the best right tackles in the league, and has been consistent in his performance throughout his career. He gets bonus points for being such a crucial part of a winner and because No. 12 hasn't missed any time during his tenure. (Tom Brady played only one game in 2008, the season before Vollmer was drafted.)
(10). San Francisco 49ers: Max Unger, C
Unger's actual slot: No. 49 overall
San Francisco's actual pick: Michael Crabtree, WR
The third center drafted in this class, Unger might be the best of them -- when healthy. He has now missed significant time in two seasons -- including last year -- but when he's right, he's an All-Pro caliber player, which is why he was part of the compensation to New Orleans to bring Jimmy Graham to Seattle this offseason.
(11.) Buffalo Bills: Michael Bennett, DE
Bennett's actual slot: Undrafted
Buffalo's actual pick: Aaron Maybin, DE
Overlooked out of Texas A&M, where he had just 6.5 sacks in his four years, Bennett moves up here because he was an outstanding player the past two seasons for Seattle, showing great versatility during that time as Pete Carroll and Dan Quinn moved him all over. Bennett appears to have a lot of good football left, which bumps him up, too.
(12.) Denver Broncos: Louis Vasquez, OT
Vazquez's actual slot: No. 78 overall
Denver's actual pick: Knowshon Moreno, RB
The former Texas Tech star may not play a premium position, but he has been one of the best guards in the NFL since he entered the league, an All-Pro who left San Diego for Denver and has been outstanding for the Broncos. He's still just 27, so he's got plenty to offer in the years to come.
(13.) Washington Redskins: Brian Orakpo, OLB
Orakpo's actual slot: No. 13 overall
Washington's actual pick: Orakpo
While he has been dogged by injuries in two of the past three seasons, I'd like to think Orakpo can get back to 100 percent and add to an impressive start to his career. He's second to Matthews in this class with 40.0 career sacks, has been to three Pro Bowls -- when healthy, that's where he can be -- and the Titans have bet that he'll continue to get the to the QB.
(14.) New Orleans Saints: DeAndre Levy, LB
Levy's actual slot: No. 76 overall
New Orleans' actual pick: Malcolm Jenkins, DB
This spot might surprise some of you, but this is a fact: Levy has been one of the best linebackers in the NFL over the past two seasons, and the 27-year-old Wisconsin product appears to be just hitting his stride, so I could see him add at least a few more really good seasons. He trailed only Luke Kuechly in tackles last season (153 to 151) and should continue to be a rangy tackling machine. (He's second in the draft class in tackles for his career.)
(15.) Houston Texans: Jeremy Maclin, WR
Maclin's actual slot: No. 19 overall
Houston's actual pick: Brian Cushing, LB
Had he not missed the entire 2013 season with a knee injury, Maclin would probably be leading the 2009 draft class in receiving yards, or at least be pretty close. He drops a bit because 2014 was actually his first season with more than 1,000 yards receiving, and because it's hard to assume he'll have an uptick in production in Kansas City. But he'll certainly be the No. 1 threat in that offense.
(16.) San Diego Chargers: Jairus Byrd, S
Byrd's actual slot: No. 42 overall
San Diego's actual pick: Larry English, OLB
He hasn't been fully healthy in either of the past two seasons, and there have been plenty of comments made about the big contract New Orleans gave him, but Byrd at 100 percent has been one of the best cover safeties in the NFL, elected to three Pro Bowls, and plenty worth the cash. He leads the draft class in INTs (22) and hopefully returns to peak form.
(17.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Connor Barwin, OLB
Barwin's actual slot: No. 46 overall
Tampa Bay's actual pick: Josh Freeman, QB
It's possible Barwin belongs higher coming off a 14.5-sack season, so there's some good football ahead of him. Barwin didn't see much of the field over his first two seasons, and he has been moved around over the past four years as he has established himself, but more of what we saw in 2014 will push him up.
(18.) Denver Broncos: Terrance Knighton, DT
Knighton's actual slot: No. 72 overall
Denver's actual pick: Robert Ayers, DE
Knighton was underrated early in his career as he played well for some bad teams in Jacksonville. He's not going to give you 900 snaps per season, but he's one of the better rotation defenders you'll find for the interior of the D-line and was useful in Denver over the past two seasons. He's now headed to D.C.
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[–]patsfanthrowaway[S] 6 points 1 day ago
(19.) Philadelphia Eagles: Malcolm Jenkins, DB
Jenkins' actual slot: No. 14 overall
Philadelphia's actual pick: Jeremy Maclin, WR
Never a star, Jenkins has been moved around, and was solid last year for Philadelphia, playing a somewhat incredible 1,200 snaps. I give him a slight bump here on future production as he's signed in Philadelphia at a reasonable number for two more seasons and would still be only 29 when that deal is done.
(20.) Detroit Lions: James Laurinaitis, LB
Laurinaitis' actual slot: No. 35 overall
Detroit's actual pick: Brandon Pettigrew, TE
One of the more recognizable defensive players in the 2009 draft, Laurinaitis has never been a star at the NFL level, but he's also never really come off the field, and durability is a big factor in how you're perceived in this league. He's started 96 of a possible 96 games -- with no end in sight -- and he has 593 total tackles; nobody else in the class has more than 438.
(21.) Cleveland Browns: Hakeem Nicks, WR
Nicks' actual slot: No. 29 overall
Cleveland's actual pick: Alex Mack, C
Nagging injuries have kept him from maintaining what he was in 2010 and 2011, when he had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, and the question now is whether Nicks has any good football left. He's No. 2 in the class in both receptions (349) and receiving yardage (5,027), but the future is cloudy right now.
(22.) Minnesota Vikings: Glover Quin, S
Quin's actual slot: No. 112 overall
Minnesota's actual pick: Percy Harvin, WR
He's not a star, but Quin is solidly above average and beyond that when it comes to dependability. Since 2010, Quin has started 80 of a possible 80 games and was a big part of Detroit's defense making a big statistical jump in 2014.
(23.) Baltimore Ravens: Michael Oher, OT
Oher's actual slot: No. 23 overall
Baltimore's actual pick: Oher
Oher will be playing for his third franchise in 2015, as the Panthers will give him a chance to handle left tackle. While he has started 91 NFL games, Oher has mostly hovered in the range of serviceable, and has never reached star status, something that was probably unfairly assumed for him after he became such a big literary and Hollywood subject. But he has been healthy and, in the context of draft reality, I'd never call him a letdown.
(24.) Atlanta Falcons: William Moore, S
Moore's actual slot: No. 55 overall
Atlanta's actual pick: Peria Jerry, DT
Moore lost much of the 2014 season with a shoulder injury, but has made a Pro Bowl and was a reasonably dependable starter for the previous four seasons. If healthy, he should get back to that form in 2015.
(25.) Miami Dolphins: Percy Harvin, WR
Harvin's actual slot: No. 22 overall
Miami's actual pick: Vontae Davis, CB
Harvin's name seems to inspire a lot of buzz, which isn't unfair if you saw him in his prime with the ball in his hands. But the reality is he hasn't been a big part of an NFL offense since the 2012 season, and he played in only nine games that year. He's still only 26 years old, but he'll be with his fourth franchise in 2015. Harvin does have an All-Pro season on his résumé -- as a return man in 2009.
(26.) Green Bay Packers: Brandon Pettigrew, TE
Pettigrew's actual slot: No. 20 overall
Green Bay's actual pick: Clay Matthews, OLB
Sure, he's an enigmatic talent who most Lions fans would say hasn't lived up to the draft-day hype, but Pettigrew has caught 294 passes (a full 60 more than any other TE in the draft) and should have some good football left, with at least one more year in Detroit.
(27.) Indianapolis Colts: Lardarius Webb, CB
Webb's actual slot: No. 88 overall
Indy's actual pick: Donald Brown, RB
At his best, Webb was one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL during the 2011 season, when he easily deserved a Pro Bowl nod. He hasn't been up to that level since -- injuries have been a culprit -- but he's certainly outperformed his draft slot and is expected back healthy for the Ravens in 2015.
(28.) Buffalo Bills: Michael Crabtree, WR
Crabtree's actual slot: No. 10 overall
Buffalo's actual pick: Eric Wood, C
He had one of the more inauspicious starts to a career I can recall, at least among those that don't involve an injury. Crabtree held out and missed the first five games of the 2009 season. He hasn't had a bad career, he just hasn't quite lived up the hype that surrounded his entry into the league. He has one 1,000-yard receiving season, and it'll be interesting to see if he has any more. We're still waiting to find out where he'll play in 2015.
(29.) New York Giants: T.J. Lang, G
Lang's actual slot: No. 109 overall
New York's actual pick: Hakeem Nicks, WR
He doesn't play a premium position, but Lang has been a good, dependable guard for a good offensive line for a while now, and he won't turn 28 until September, so there's plenty of good football (and winning) left for him in Green Bay, where he's signed through the end of 2016.
(30.) Tennessee Titans: Phil Loadholt, OT
Loadholt's actual slot: No. 54 overall
Tennessee's actual pick: Kenny Britt, WR
The utterly massive former Oklahoma star has put together a solid career, with 89 career starts and a sublime 2013 season. He's certainly got some good football left to play.
(31.) Arizona Cardinals: Brian Cushing, LB
Cushing's actual slot: No. 15 overall
Arizona's actual pick: Beanie Wells, RB
Remember that Cushing was the first of four linebackers drafted out of USC in 2009, which is pretty incredible (Matthews, Rey Maualuga and Kaluka Maiava are the others). He has been to a Pro Bowl, but has to drop here because injuries have robbed him of a lot of playing time over the past three seasons. He was able to play 14 games in 2014 (he played 12 total in the preceding two years) and hopefully can maintain good health in 2015.
(32.) Pittsburgh Steelers: Paul Kruger, OLB
Kruger's actual slot: No. 57 overall
Pittsburgh's actual pick: Evander Hood, DL
He didn't play a big role in Baltimore early in his career, in part because the depth chart didn't demand it, but Kruger has shown versatility and, particularly last season, the ability to get to the quarterback, as he's coming off a season where he notched 11.0 sacks.

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by Just Passin' By

Do you not get the difference between trying to "pwn" you and suggesting you don't go too crazy, while noting that you were also wrong in the thread? Are you really that ****ing stupid, or are you just trying to use your own wrong guesses as part of your troll?

I wasn't wrong, though. Tony Romo played at a Pro Bowl level and didn't receive the nod because of politics. But hey, according to Hamas, board genius, Romo wasn't even going to be a starter in 4 years.

[Hootie]

Oh, and, I was the first person to also call Jamaal Charles "Chris Johnson" light and was also mocked relentlessly for saying Jamaal was the same back as CJ2K with every bit as much talent.

You know, kinda like how in 2 years everyone will be like "man Russell Wilson is so elite it's scary"...it's not my fault I don't have to wait for everyone else to catch up.

Eye test.

[Chiefs=Champions]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

Oh, and, I was the first person to also call Jamaal Charles "Chris Johnson" light and was also mocked relentlessly for saying Jamaal was the same back as CJ2K with every bit as much talent.

You know, kinda like how in 2 years everyone will be like "man Russell Wilson is so elite it's scary"...it's not my fault I don't have to wait for everyone else to catch up.

Eye test.

Chris Johnson and Charles are nothing alike. They are both fast and play RB, that's it.

[eDave]

I don't know why peeps can't roll up long ass thread starts under a spoiler tag or something. At least come back and do it after, say 48 hrs.

Scroll, scroll, scroll...

I've said my peace.

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by Chiefs=Good

Chris Johnson and Charles are nothing alike. They are both fast and play RB, that's it.

Maybe not. Jamaal ended up putting clown shoes on CJ once CJ got the contract.

Before that contract? CJ had a 3 year stretch where he was the best in the biz

And when I suggested Jamaal was every bit as good, believe it or not, I was mocked and called a homer.

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by eDave

I don't know why peeps can't roll up long ass thread starts under a spoiler tag or something. At least come back and do it after, say 48 hrs.

Scroll, scroll, scroll...

I've said my peace.

Set your pages to 80 posts, brah

[Chiefs=Champions]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

Maybe not. Jamaal ended up putting clown shoes on CJ once CJ got the contract.

Before that contract? CJ had a 3 year stretch where he was the best in the biz

And when I suggested Jamaal was every bit as good, believe it or not, I was mocked and called a homer.

Often people look silly when they try and compare players. Player comparisons are lazy.

[Chiefs=Champions]

I remember I got burned when I drafted Tyron Smith to the chiefs instead of Carimi or Wisniewski in the cp alt draft that year. People get things wrong. But thats what makes this place interesting. People differ on opinions. Whats the point of having a football board if you can't debate football and the moves that front offices make?

[kccrow]

This entire thread doesn't merit much, if any input, but I'll provide some if not to ease the dire state of melancholy from which it were derived.

The "draftniks" of this site offer individual opinions on a myriad of players to generate discussion about and interest in the next event in the NFL. While not nearly as interesting as the NFL season itself, at least it provides some entertainment and discourse. This activity fills a void that could be best termed a rather miserable period for a sports fan. Nothing of much significance is taking place except for the lengthy finish to the NBA and NHL seasons as we await the playoffs in those sports as well as the thrill of "March Madness." There is no NASCAR or Formula One, for those that choose to partake in watching those events. The NFL's free agency period and draft run in close succession and discussions about such offer some level of entertainment to many of us during this time.

Prospecting about the future of an NFL prospect is merely fun. Liken it to a game of trivia except that you have to wait three years to find out if your answer was correct. Beyond prognostication, mock draft activity provides a bit of education on player types, system fits, and how teams use players in a variety of roles. Over years, you get a grasp on not only the types of players the Chiefs might draft, but what other teams will.

What each of us partaking in this activity realizes is what is not brought into play here, and that is the wealth of analytics used behind the scenes. Analytics ties together scouting reports, statistics, player histories, attitudes, intelligence, team needs, team philosophies, and so on into this "Decision Lens" system used by today's franchises. Each player is graded and spit out to a spreadsheet, which exclusively followed by decision makers.

Nobody here aspires to emulate the millions of dollars spent by NFL teams on human resource analytics. Many companies not in the fortune 500 only aspire to reach anywhere near that level of analytical capabilities.

Even with those capabilities, the bust rate is high for prospects. NFL teams don't get it right more than they do. Equally, the "draftniks" will not get it right more often than they do. The "draftniks" cannot possibly hope to accurately project 256 players out of a pool of well over 1,000 nor can they project how teams will react on draft day given plethora of factors such as grade vs value, trade value, and so on.

Overall, talking about the draft and creating mocks is a time filler; it's fun. This is all just trying to be the guy that got one right and really nothing more. If your choice is to spend your free time create a piece of inane drivel about how you inexplicably came to the conclusion that Tom Brady is not "clutch" (however that is accurately defined), then how can you realistically criticize those of us that chose to spend our free time contemplating the future value of a draft prospect?

We have our fun in our little piece of the Planet, and it isn't going to change any time soon.

[Hootie]

The title of the thread was "IS Tom Brady the least clutch QB of all time?" ...

And it was made to show even the golden boy has more than his fair share of rough playoff games

[eDave]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

Set your pages to 80 posts, brah

I still gotta scroll past your manifesto, brah.

[ChiefsCountry]

Cool 3 of my Cowboy picks in the CP Mock Draft made the list.

[Just Passin' By]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

I wasn't wrong, though. Tony Romo played at a Pro Bowl level and didn't receive the nod because of politics. But hey, according to Hamas, board genius, Romo wasn't even going to be a starter in 4 years.

You were wrong. Romo did not make the Pro Bowl. He didn't deserve to make it, either, not that deserving changes your original claim. Rodgers and Brees were superior to Romo that season.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

.

I'm not sure why you're including me in those quotes. The theme was that no one "good" was taken after Hali, to which Pest pointed out that DeMeco Ryans was taken after him.

I was playing "Devil's Advocate" and never said the Chiefs shouldn't have taken Hali but I did compare DJ/Ryans vs. Hali and DJ just for kicks.

[DaneMcCloud]

Look, I like Hootie and think he brings a lot to this forum but he's off base here.

This is a football forum. People talk about the draft. People like to point to the professionals and say "I did it better than you!". Personally, I think that's normal.

It's Frank Costanza versus George Steinbrenner. It's every fan versus Mel Kiper, jr.

It's just fun.