Updated Draft Value Trade Chart

[KChiefs1]

The NFL Draft is a month away and it’s time for an updated NFL Draft Value chart. There is an old chart floating around that is attributed to Jimmy Johnson and teams consult some variation of the end result when conducting trades involving draft picks.

The chart predates the new CBA and it’s time to update the numbers based on actual trades that have taken place.

Since the 2012 NFL Draft - the first one after the new CBA- there have been 154 trades that involve only draft picks. Trades that involve a player are not factored into my calculations, but can be evaluated to understand the perceived value of the player.

Based on these pick-for-pick trades, I’ve created the following draft value chart to show how teams actually value draft picks.


Trades at the top of the draft are all ad hoc

Trying to create a table that includes picks at the top of the draft (ie: top ten) doesn’t make sense because the value of the pick changes on a year-to-year basis.

For example, the #1 pick when Andrew Luck was a prospect is worth a lot more than the #1 pick of Eric Fisher as the top prospect.

Teams love their quarterbacks and drafts with good quarterback prospects see an increased value in picks at the top.

So take the value of the top ten picks on the chart as a baseline, and adjust the value accordingly when top prospects come out of college.

Future draft picks are valued one round earlier than the current year

In other words, a team could trade a fourth round pick in 2018 and reasonably expect to receive a 2019 third round pick on the market. A current second is worth a future first. No one really wants future seventh round picks because they hold almost no value.

This valuation of future picks is a representation of time value of money, which means that a draft pick now is worth more than the same draft pick in a future year.

The worst trade was the Cowboys sending the 18th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft to the San Francisco 49ers for the 31st and 74th overall picks. The Cowboys gave up the equivalent of the 103rd overall pick- but they left with All Pro center Travis Frederick and WR Terrance Williams, while the 49ers selected S Eric Reid, so the Cowboys won the scouting aspect. Scouting departments can turn multiple 2nd day picks into first round value.

There is a premium to trade back into the first round

The round of a draft pick in the second-through-seventh rounds doesn’t impact the value, unless dealing with future picks, because the difference between the 64th and 65th overall picks is negligible. There is more value in the 64th pick because it’s earlier, not because it comes in the second round.

First round picks, however, have a special fifth-year option that is not included in the contracts of second round picks, creating an actual difference in value. For this reason, teams can match equivalent values in a trade, but the outside team will have to pay an additional premium of roughly a 4th-5th round pick to get back into the first round.

This premium is not baked into the table because teams that trade within the first round don’t require this premium.

Trading down on day three and picking up veterans is the smartest move according to past trades and percent of serviceable players in those rounds. An example of this is the Patriots have a habit of trading fifth or sixth round picks for proven veterans and trading lower round picks this year into higher picks next year.

From my research it's better to have multiple picks in the top 100 and then trade 3rd day picks for veterans to fill spots of need on your roster.

[Chargem]

So what's the value of the 2019 pick from the Rams, is it the midpoint of round 3 (80th pick) or do you think teams would factor in the FA acquisitions of the Rams and value it even lower, expecting it to be a late second round pick?