Chiefs The Chiefs' Playoff Paths - Page 2

**Rain Man** · 10:38 PM

Here are all of our potential outcomes for your viewing pleasure. Scenarios A through M based on the outcomes of various combinations of games. The big numbers are our final seeding.

(Edit: Updated with a new graphic to show changes heading into Sunday on Week 16.)

KCJake · 12-15-2018, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flying High D

At end of the day it is what it is.

That's what she said

T-post Tom · 12-15-2018, 06:23 PM

RM, you mad genius. My head hurts.

Chief Roundup · 12-15-2018, 06:29 PM

What a horrible graphic.

Over Yonder · 12-15-2018, 06:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flying High D

At end of the day it is what it is.

That is true but I love this time of the year with playoff scenarios. What if Houston does this, what if New England does that, what if a comet hits Pluto during the 2:00 warning of the 49ers game, etc. etc.

I think it is a habit I picked up years ago when the Chiefs stunk and I had to find interest in the playoffs. Not sure

**Shiver Me Timbers** · 12-15-2018, 06:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 65TPT

I'm having a little trouble here.

LOLLER

**007** · 12-15-2018, 07:08 PM

Just beat Seattle right now.

**Rain Man** · 12-15-2018, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FAX

Not following possibilities G and H. They look very similar to me. But they have different seeding results.

I'm probably just confused.

FAX

Quote:

Originally Posted by PHOG

I think option H should be NE = 3-0, maybe.

Oh, goodness, you're correct. Edit made. I missed a sign change. I bet this is why some people were confused by the graphic.

**Rain Man** · 12-15-2018, 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dante84

So we would prefer Houston lose this game, yes?

Yes, we definitely want Houston to lose.

(Checks score on nfl.com.)

Dammit.

**Rain Man** · 12-15-2018, 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

What a horrible graphic.

You're not looking at it right. You have to unfocus your eyes and then look past it.

**Rain Man** · 12-16-2018, 04:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaFace

There must be some weird tiebreakers that the models aren't able to calculate. The NYT gizmo says that Scenario B only goes to the Chargers if they beat the Ravens (so the Chiefs would have the tiebreaker instead of the Chargers). Apparently ESPN says the opposite. I'm not sure what it really comes down to.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ss&event=seed1

Okay, I'm looking into this.

The first tiebreaker is head to head record. Somehow both teams are tied on this, so it's completely irrelevant regardless of the next two weeks.

The second tiebreaker is the record within the division. The Chargers are currently 3-2 and the Chiefs are technically 4-1 because the Chargers cheated.

The third tiebreaker is record against common opponents. The Chiefs are currently 9-1 and the Chargers are 8-2.

The fourth tiebreaker is conference record. The Chiefs are currently 9-2 and the Chargers are 8-2.

So I think there's an error in the ESPN model, which is the one that I was using. If we beat the Seahawks and lose to the Raiders we end up with a 4-2 division record, tied with the Chargers if they beat the Broncos. So we're tied on the second tiebreaker.

In that scenario, we would end up with a 10-2 record against common opponents which would beat the Chargers. The Chargers would need to beat the Broncos to get to 4-2 within the division, AND they'd need to beat the Ravens to just flat out win the division because they gained a game on us.

This also affects Scenario F, so this really helps us. It gives Phillip Rivers another chance to blow it.

Edit made to OP.

NJChiefsFan · 12-16-2018, 04:25 PM

I did this the other day. This is cleaner than my chart lol. Very well done Rainman. Not sure how people are confused. You should feel proud.

Mr. Wizard · 12-16-2018, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Here are all of our potential outcomes for your viewing pleasure. Scenarios A through M based on the outcomes of various combinations of games. The big numbers are our final seeding.

I am sorry but with Elmer Fudd, oops I mean uncle Bob as our DC........

via GIPHY

and Scandrick as a starter and Fuller out, this is how I feel

via GIPHY

**petegz28** · 12-16-2018, 04:44 PM

We're headed straight for the #5 seed if LAC beats the Raves on Saturday. I don't think we have the defense to beat Seattle.

scho63 · 12-16-2018, 04:51 PM

I can't do complicated flow charts on the weekend after alcohol.

**Trivers** · 12-16-2018, 05:19 PM

Thanks for doing the math and making the graphics!

12-15-2018, 05:04 PM
Rain Man NFL's #1 Ermines Fan Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $3338491 VARSITY	The Chiefs' Playoff Paths Here are all of our potential outcomes for your viewing pleasure. Scenarios A through M based on the outcomes of various combinations of games. The big numbers are our final seeding. (Edit: Updated with a new graphic to show changes heading into Sunday on Week 16.) Attached Thumbnails Last edited by Rain Man; 12-22-2018 at 10:38 PM..
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12-15-2018, 06:23 PM	#17
T-post Tom Threepeat! Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Milk/Honey/Gazland Casino cash: $4597293	RM, you mad genius. My head hurts. __________________ You seem nice!
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12-15-2018, 06:29 PM	#18
Chief Roundup Admitted Planet Junky Join Date: Oct 2000 Casino cash: $2081627	What a horrible graphic. __________________ Fanaticism is nowhere. There is no tenderness or humanity in fanaticism.
Posts: 19,196

12-15-2018, 07:08 PM	#21
007 Shaken. Not stirred. Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: London Casino cash: $14060126 VARSITY	Just beat Seattle right now. __________________ My dear girl, there are some things that just aren’t done. Such as, drinking Dom Perignon ’53 above the temperature of 38 degrees Fahrenheit. That’s just as bad as listening to the Beatles without earmuffs.
Posts: 65,554

12-16-2018, 04:25 PM	#26
NJChiefsFan I've Made a Huge Mistake Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: NJ Casino cash: $5770423	I did this the other day. This is cleaner than my chart lol. Very well done Rainman. Not sure how people are confused. You should feel proud.
Posts: 12,235

12-16-2018, 04:44 PM	#28
petegz28 Supporter Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Olathe, Ks Casino cash: $2814127	We're headed straight for the #5 seed if LAC beats the Raves on Saturday. I don't think we have the defense to beat Seattle.
Posts: 127,996	0 1

12-16-2018, 04:51 PM	#29
scho63 Politically Incorrect Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Scottsdale, AZ Casino cash: $2791110	I can't do complicated flow charts on the weekend after alcohol. __________________ *"The only difference between sex for free and sex for money is that sex for free costs you a WHOLE LOT more!"* ~Redd Foxx~ ~~2018 2019 2020 20212022 2023~~ 2024 Adopt a Chief - Clark Hunt and Brett Veach "The men who drafted Patrick Mahomes"
Posts: 50,464

12-16-2018, 05:19 PM	#30
Trivers Always ask 'Why?" Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Two Rivers, Wisconsin Casino cash: $2342400	Thanks for doing the math and making the graphics!
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