David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes"

[Deberg_1990]

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.



The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday.

I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback.

Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1).

Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season.

September: 92.0
October: 111.1
November: 63.5
Dec.-Jan.: 68.8

The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses.

I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses.

It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters.


http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

At this point he's been given much more time to sit and learn than most QBs ever get taken that early. But to have a chance to play your first NFL games against some pretty bad teams to finish this season, and then also likely get to start a playoff game in his rookie year... man, that's a hard opportunity to look away from.

Give him the last 5 games plus playoffs to get in game experience on top of the 12 weeks he has sat, and you get the best of both worlds. We have a team and coaches around him that shouldn't put him in situations to fail. He is set up nicely.

Unfortunately I think Andy doesn't want a rookie QB in a playoff game this year bc it signals that the team is giving up to the vets. I think Alex would really have to **** up to get replaced, which might happen if he continues this streak against Buffalo.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

It's so true.

Iron sharpening iron.

Anyone who doesn't count that factor in to the overall team output over the course of a season is a damned fool.

Originally Posted by RunKC

Unfortunately I think Andy doesn't want a rookie QB in a playoff game this year bc it signals that the team is giving up to the vets. I think Alex would really have to **** up to get replaced, which might happen if he continues this streak against Buffalo.

Sad but true.

[NWTF]

Originally Posted by KILLER_CLOWN

I am probably the last guy to call for the QB's head but I agree Let's get Mahomes in there now. Let's put him in and take our lumps regardless of what happens. Tired of these teams all my life that are just good enough to be a sacrificial lamb in the playoffs.

Thats where Im at. I dont think we see Mahomes this year barring injury but I think its definitely the best move long term. Hes the future so unless you got something special happening this season and dont want to mess it up then why keep delaying the inevitable.

I dont see much if any downside because I dont see this team as a legit threat to do anything meaningful. Its possible if he had a bad first outing the team could pack it in, but I keep coming back to I dont see this team doing anything in January anyway even if we hang onto the division lead for a playoff spot. Its also possible he could surprise in a good way and give this offense a boost, pumping life back into a possible playoff run, but Id still be cautious with that talk. For me its more about getting the needed game day experience NOW instead of next season being the first time he sees real action.

They will probably win the next two, three games, basically securing a playoff spot and that will quiet down the QB talk.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Unfortunately I think Andy doesn't want a rookie QB in a playoff game this year bc it signals that the team is giving up to the vets. I think Alex would really have to **** up to get replaced, which might happen if he continues this streak against Buffalo.

I would think the players would be excited to put him in at this point. They've seen what some of these young QBs are doing around the league and they've also seen plenty of Alex Smith.

If I'm Derrick Johnson or Tamba Hali, I want to change from the norm of the last 12-13 years and throw the kid in who just might make the offense truly explosive.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by Sweet Daddy Hate

How much do you want to bet that Reid will REALLY "figure it out" once Mahomes is the starter?
How much do you want to bet that the O-line will REALLY "turn it around" once Mahomes is the starter?
How much do you want to bet that the TE's and WR's will REALLY "step it up" once Mahomes is the starter?
How much do you want to bet the the Defense will REALLY "get back on track and start making the turnovers happen again" once Mahomes is the starter?

What the hell does the defense have to do with Mahomes? Mahomes doesn't play defense. The defense is not going to better because of Mahomes. Let me guess you think our special teams is going to get better because of Mahomes too?

You're just a typical moron fan. You think the only thing that matters is the QB. No other position in football is important. It's why 95% of posts on CP are about Smitty. You uneducated fans think because in Madden you can win with the Browns when you have Tom Brady that's how it works in real life. Guess what? It doesn't.

Stick to Madden and fantasy football guys. Discussing real football isn't for you.

[RobBlake]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

I would think the players would be excited to put him in at this point. They've seen what some of these young QBs are doing around the league and they've also seen plenty of Alex Smith.

If I'm Derrick Johnson or Tamba Hali, I want to change from the norm of the last 12-13 years and throw the kid in who just might make the offense truly explosive.

If you’re Johnson you’re getting blown by and halo you’re sitting on the bench.

There are a lot of mitigating factors into keeping alex as starter until either eliminated from playoff contention, injury or worsening play.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

I would think the players would be excited to put him in at this point. They've seen what some of these young QBs are doing around the league and they've also seen plenty of Alex Smith.

If I'm Derrick Johnson or Tamba Hali, I want to change from the norm of the last 12-13 years and throw the kid in who just might make the offense truly explosive.

I can see their view. They were very close to going to OT in the divisional round last year and a new rookie with zero experience isn't good on paper. A rookie QB has never won a SB before.

Putting in the training 24/7 and wasting your last chance.

It's not our view, but I can absolutely see their side of it.

[St. Patty's Fire]

Originally Posted by RunKC

I can see their view. They were very close to going to OT in the divisional round last year and a new rookie with zero experience isn't good on paper. A rookie QB has never won a SB before.

Putting in the training 24/7 and wasting your last chance.

It's not our view, but I can absolutely see their side of it.

Tom Brady was a rookie in 2001 unless the one game he played in 2000 disqualifies him.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

What the hell does the defense have to do with Mahomes? Mahomes doesn't play defense. The defense is not going to better because of Mahomes. Let me guess you think our special teams is going to get better because of Mahomes too?

You're just a typical moron fan. You think the only thing that matters is the QB. No other position in football is important. It's why 95% of posts on CP are about Smitty. You uneducated fans think because in Madden you can win with the Browns when you have Tom Brady that's how it works in real life. Guess what? It doesn't.

Stick to Madden and fantasy football guys. Discussing real football isn't for you.

That's convenient. When our defense is top 10 and creating umpteen turnovers a game, our qb just knows how to win games. When our defense is bottom 10, it's a team game and the defense is failing us.

That's a fair measuring stick.

[Buns]

In Regards to Cold Weather and Rookie QB's

http://lubbockonline.com/filed-onlin...kingsbury-says

Spoiler!

Texas Tech football notes: Facing cold Saturday forecast in Iowa, Kingsbury says it's no problem
Cold won't affect play selection

Saturday at Iowa State figures to be the closest thing Texas Tech’s had to a cold-weather football game all season. It’s supposed to be chilly and breezy, but Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury doesn’t foresee it affecting his play selection.

“We ran it 44 times last week, so whatever we have to do to try and win the game,” Kingsbury said after Tuesday’s practice. “Pat (Mahomes) does a good job throwing in all types of weather, so whatever is working is what we’ll do.”

Tech and Iowa State play at 2:30 p.m. Saturday at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa. The National Weather Service forecast calls for 39 degrees at kickoff, dropping to 32 by game’s end and northwest wind from 10-15 mph during the game.

“I know it’s supposed to be windy and a little chilly,” Kingsbury said, “but we have some of those things here in Lubbock. So I think we can handle those conditions, but I guess we’ll see.”

Kingsbury noted on Monday that one of Mahomes’ most impressive performances, to him, was two years ago in Ames. Mahomes threw for 328 yards and four touchdowns, rallying Tech from deficits of 24-14 in the third quarter and 31-27 in the fourth quarter to win 34-31.

That was Mahomes’ third career start, and first on the road.

“That’s still my favorite start he’s had,” Kingsbury said, “simply because we were out of bow contention, got down late in the third, could’ve easily packed it in. It was cold, a tough atmosphere and he kept figthing and brought us back and found a way to win that game.

“That told me a lot about him and his competitive spirit early on.”

[Dave Lane]

Originally Posted by OKchiefs

For the record, Matt Cassel would have won a playoff game with that Chiefs squad against a Brian Hoyer led Texans.

Totally this.

[Marcellus]

Is PAChiefsguy Penbrook?

I hope to hell there aren't 2 people that stupid on the planet.

[ptlyon]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Is PAChiefsguy Penbrook?

I hope to hell there aren't 2 people that stupid on the planet.

Has crossed my mind...

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

What the hell does the defense have to do with Mahomes? Mahomes doesn't play defense. The defense is not going to better because of Mahomes. Let me guess you think our special teams is going to get better because of Mahomes too?

You're just a typical moron fan. You think the only thing that matters is the QB. No other position in football is important. It's why 95% of posts on CP are about Smitty. You uneducated fans think because in Madden you can win with the Browns when you have Tom Brady that's how it works in real life. Guess what? It doesn't.

Stick to Madden and fantasy football guys. Discussing real football isn't for you.

I'm saying that you have NO idea, NONE, of how important that position is. Your belief in Shitty is proof enough of that.
I'm also saying that you have ZERO understanding and experience in team-building be it in business or sports. You don't understand the dynamic involved THERE EITHER.

As far as I can tell, is YOU who are in fact the dumbassed football fan who may possibly be able to spout stats and assignments, but you know NOTHING about the dynamics of the game.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by Sweet Daddy Hate

I'm saying that you have NO idea, NONE, of how important that position is. Your belief in Shitty is proof enough of that.
I'm also saying that you have ZERO understanding and experience in team-building be it in business or sports. You don't understand the dynamic involved THERE EITHER.

As far as I can tell, is YOU who are in fact the dumbassed football fan who may possibly be able to spout stats and assignments, but you know NOTHING about the dynamics of the game.

Cool only problem with that whole post ..... I don't care what you think about me.