*** Official 2018 Royals Offseason Repository ***

[duncan_idaho]

It's the end of the world as we know it... and we feel... fine?

2018 is a season of transition for the Royals, or at least it is at this point. Dayton Moore is back. Will he swing full into THE PROCESS 2.0? Or will he try to load up again and make some reload magic happen?

Pending Free Agents:
1B | Eric Hosmer | San Diego Padres, 8 years, $144 million ($5 million signing bonus; $20 million/year in Yrs 1-5; $13 million/year in Yrs 6-8 wth player opt out)

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Texas Rangers, 6, $118 million)

3B | Mike Moustaskas | Kansas City Royas, 1, $6.5 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Los Angeles Angels, 5, $98 million)

CF | Lorenzo Cain | Milwaukee Brewers, 5 years, $80 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: San Francisco Giants, 4, $68 million)

RP | Mike Minor | Texas Rangers, 3, $28 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Los Angeles Angels, 3, $35 million+ $12 million team option

SP | Jason Vargas | New York Mets, 2, $16 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Baltimore Orioles, 2, $29 million)

SS | Alcides Escobar | Kansas City Royals, 1, $2.5 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: San Diego Padres, 1, $6.5 million)

2018 MLB Draft Picks
#18
#33 - Compensation (Eric Hosmer)
#34 - Compensation (Lorenzo Cain)
#40 (Competitive Balance Round A)

Comp picks explanation:

Spoiler!

In case I, picks would be #32, 33, and 34, if Alex Cobb of Rays signs for $50 million guaranteed.

Kansas City will likely have 5 of the top 40-45 picks in the draft, and the bonus pool money should rival that of the teams drafting 1-3 in the 2017 draft. This should give KC tremendous flexibility in acquiring talent that otherwise might slip or not be "signable."

2018 Draft Names to Watch

RHP Kumar Rocker, N Oconnee HS, Georgia.

Spoiler!

Possibly goes top 10 but is a big, physical SP with ace potential. Moore and co. will be all over him if he slips a bit and could offer top 10 money at No. 16

OF Jarred Kelenic, Waukasha West HS, WI

Spoiler!

Kelenic is the top prep bat, toolsy OF. Royals would be ecstatic to have shot at him.

1B Triston Casas, American Heritage HS (FL).

Spoiler!

Tremendous raw power, best in HS bats. Royals typically like HS arms or HS bats with "special" tools. He qualifies.

RHP Carter Stewart, Eau de Gallie HS (Ga).

Spoiler!

Another big, physical specimen with huge upside. More likely to be available mid-first than Rocker.

ANY Any, Any (Any). Any current top projected pick who slides for injury concerns. Includes current top prospect prospect SP Brady Singer, U of Florida.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

That does seem an odd fit for them; Petco made some changes to give lefties a fair shake a couple of years ago but it's still pretty damn hard to do much in that park, especially for left-handed hitters.



That said, Hosmer is more of a line-drive hitter who puts some balls over the wall that are simply liners that don't drop. He may actually be able to take advantage of the OF there to become more of the modern day Will Clark I kindof expected him to be.



The obvious difference between him and Clark is the strikeouts. Clark was a tough AB every single time he went to the plate. Hosmer, as you know, is noisy as hell up there and falls into prolonged funks where he couldn't hit a beach ball with a tennis racket. But if he went to SD and realized that he can simplify his approach, drop closer to 18-20 HRs and make it up by hitting more doubles and getting on base more, it might actually be good for him.



4 years ago I looked at Freddie Freeman and Eric Hosmer and had no idea who the better player would be. Then in 2013 Freeman seemed to embrace ihis line-drive approach. He came to really understand his strengths as a hitter and exploded by catering to them. I'm not convinced Hosmer's ever truly done that. Perhaps getting to a park (and getting a big contract) will allow him to focus less on the difficult task of turning liners into homers and more on the much easier job of turning groundballs into liners.

Petco has less OF grass than the K, so I'm not sure it caters to Hosmer's strengths any better than the K does, but it's possible the change in scenery and big contract help Hosmer adjust (though it's just as possible the pressure from those items takes him the other way).

He took off in May of last year by embracing an approach that included hitting the ball up the middle and the other way more often. I think he can continue that and be a consistent hitter (.300/.360/.475-.500, depending how many HR he walks into)... at least as long as his natural talents can support his crazy, complicated swing.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

4 years ago I looked at Freddie Freeman and Eric Hosmer and had no idea who the better player would be. Then in 2013 Freeman seemed to embrace ihis line-drive approach. He came to really understand his strengths as a hitter and exploded by catering to them. I'm not convinced Hosmer's ever truly done that. Perhaps getting to a park (and getting a big contract) will allow him to focus less on the difficult task of turning liners into homers and more on the much easier job of turning groundballs into liners.

I think you're underestimating how seriously Hosmer takes his brother's (a professional firefighters) hitting advice.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Petco has less OF grass than the K, so I'm not sure it caters to Hosmer's strengths any better than the K does, but it's possible the change in scenery and big contract help Hosmer adjust (though it's just as possible the pressure from those items takes him the other way).

He took off in May of last year by embracing an approach that included hitting the ball up the middle and the other way more often. I think he can continue that and be a consistent hitter (.300/.360/.475-.500, depending how many HR he walks into)... at least as long as his natural talents can support his crazy, complicated swing.

It won't be much longer now.

That's gonna be the key for him. The long-term security and the fact that the Padres will suck next year either way has to convince him that he's willing to write-off all/part of a season while he rebuilds his swing into something that will age better.

Gonna be a tough sell to make to a proud guy sporting a $20 million/season AAV, but it could pay off long-term. His hands/wrists won't allow him to get away with that kind of rusty gate approach to swinging the bat for much longer, IMO.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

I think you're underestimating how seriously Hosmer takes his brother's (a professional firefighters) hitting advice.

That seems....unwise.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by dallaschiefsfan

If they don't get Hosmer signed, I would still say it's less likely they unload everything. That's just not the way you "rebuild". You always keep some key pieces - especially affordable ones and guys that can positively influence club-house culture. Would Duffy, Salvy, Merrifield or Hererra get traded? Maybe one of them. It's more likely we would see smaller deals for vets like Hammel, Maurer, Buchter, Soria or even younger guys like Cuthbert, Alexander, Bonifacio and Soler, because we have alternatives in the minors.

Keep in mind, "focused on re-stocking" the minor leagues does not necessarily mean trading every marketable player for top-5 prospects from other orgs - especially if you've paid attention to Dayton's recent history. It would likely be some combination of smaller deals, trading for draft pool and international money along with maybe one "big" deal.

As DJ pointed out, shipping off all assets that won't be around to help in your next contention window IS the best route to rebuilding these days.

Whether they get there depends on what happens with Hosmer, IMO, because with him, you can project having Hosmer, Perez, Duffy, Merrifield, and a few others to build around as a contending team in 2019, 2020.

Without him, it's hard to see the rebuild being that short. You're looking more at 2021 as the hopeful start of the next wave/window.

I think they're open to moving anyone if Hosmer signs elsewhere. I think it's highly, highly likely now that at least Soria and Herrera are moved, regardless. With Scott Alexander and Whit Merrifield, you have so much control of them still that KC could hold them. I think Alexander would fetch a nice return, though maybe not as nice of one as he would return at the deadline if he's sitting on 15-20 saves and has shown the same dominance and crazy groundball tendencies he did in 2017.

The real questions are Duffy and Perez. It would be very tough from a PR perspective to move them, but they're hugely valuable chips and would do more than anyone else to rebuild the team.

Duffy's value would be somewhere close to Jose Quintana's when the white sox moved him. Perez's return would have to be monumental for the team to be able to do it.

I do agree that Hammel will be on the block and they'll shop him hard.

Moore's recent history doesn't matter if he's going into rebuild mode. The moves you make when you're trying to rebuild are entirely different than the ones you make when you're trying to supplement and fill in the final pieces for a team set up to contend.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

That seems....unwise.

And yet... it is so.

[sedated]

Wasn't there a rumor that Hosmer listened hard to Carlos Beltran when he said "get your first contract on steals and batting average, get your second contract on HRs"?

[dallaschiefsfan]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

That's not the way teams have 'rebuilt' since the implementation of the present draft rules.

Teams rebuild now by absolutely gutting their squads, losing 105 games, getting themselves huge draft pools so they can go over slot on talent in the middle rounds and squirreling away their top assets in the minors for as long as they can to clump their service time into identifiable windows.

Many teams will focus precisely on moving their 'core' assets because those are the guys who are going to be gone by the time that window arrives or leaving their prime. They'll also get the best return.

Some teams refuse to engage in it and I think they'll suffer for it (the Cardinals). Others embrace it fully and they'll be rewarded for it, IMO (The White Sox are the most recent example; the Cubs and Astros are the most obvious).

If you're going to rebuild, you tear it down to the studs. I'd hold onto Duffy until the trade deadline if I were them; let him re-establish his value. Perez? I'd absolutely shop him around as catchers are tough to find. The problem is that most contenders have one. I'd give the Angels a call and see what's left in that barren system of theirs. They're going to make a hard push now that Otani is there and they can't keep wasting Trout. Maldonado...sucks.

That system is so bad it might be hard to put a deal together with them, but Adell, Canning and Thaiss might makes sense; a big-time toolsy OFer in Adell, a good 'pitchability' righty in Canning that's probably gonna be in an MLB rotation by 2019 and a 1b with helium and an advanced approach in Thaiss. If you could convince them to include Chris Rodriguez in there - huge tools but short on results as a HS pick - you'd have to pull the trigger.

I know this all sounds like it makes sense, but this is not what will happen. You have to have significant major league assets to yield the kind of haul that contains the parts to a future championship level ball club. Perez and Duffy are far more valuable to us than most other teams and the PR headache would just be another negative on those kinds of deals. We just do not have a Greinke on our team to net the kind of haul that would build the minor league system in a way that's any quicker than doing it through smaller deals and working the system for pool / international money.

Rebuilding just means they won't try to add any significant parts to the existing squad. We will play whatever we already have and start working towards the next few drafts. In the mean time, Burns/Orlando/Gordon/Boni/Soler in the OF, Moss/Dozier at first, Cuthbert and Mondesi will fill out the infield. If they just want to shave some payroll, the only moves that make sense are Duffy, Hererra, Kennedy and Hammell. (edit - oops...and Soria).

[Nightfyre]

I would contend that both Duffy and Perez are more valuable than Grienke was. He was a rental and was known as a player who didn't care about his team. Duffy and Perez have very friendly long term deals and clubhouse character in spades.

[dallaschiefsfan]

Originally Posted by Nightfyre

I would contend that both Duffy and Perez are more valuable than Grienke was. He was a rental and was known as a player who didn't care about his team. Duffy and Perez have very friendly long term deals and clubhouse character in spades.

Again...I know that seems to make sense...but name one executive that is ready to restock our system with trades for either of those guys. MAYBE at the trade deadline. Other GM's are inquiring, because if we're rebuilding...they want to see if they can get a bargain. Few clubs will offer what we want if they feel they have leverage because they believe rebuilding for us means every player must go.

[Nightfyre]

Originally Posted by dallaschiefsfan

Again...I know that seems to make sense...but name one executive that is ready to restock our system with trades for either of those guys. MAYBE at the trade deadline. Other GM's are inquiring, because if we're rebuilding...they want to see if they can get a bargain. Few clubs will offer what we want if they feel they have leverage because they believe rebuilding for us means every player must go.

That's why you wait for the deadline. It can turn into an arms race and a bidding war, and the clock works against the contenders.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by dallaschiefsfan

Again...I know that seems to make sense...but name one executive that is ready to restock our system with trades for either of those guys. MAYBE at the trade deadline. Other GM's are inquiring, because if we're rebuilding...they want to see if they can get a bargain. Few clubs will offer what we want if they feel they have leverage because they believe rebuilding for us means every player must go.

I feel like I just did - the Angels would almost certainly be eager listeners. In for a penny, in for a pound. They're going full LeBron over the next 3 years to do anything they can to convince Trout to re-sign after this contract ends and become a lifelong Angel. They can't do that if they just keep lowing 80+ games/season and missing the playoffs.

Perez's relatively affordable contract would be very appealing to them. As would his impact on a relatively young pitching staff. He's a perfect fit for that team.

As for Duffy - who wouldn't want a lefty with plus stuff? I don't think he has Quintana's value, but Quintana returned a top 10 prospect and another top 75 guy. Duffy could probably return two top 50 guys pretty easily. Why wouldn't the Blue Jays discuss Alford and Bichette for Duffy?

Hell, you know you who call? The New York Yankees. You send them Duffy, they send you Clint Frazier, Chance Adams and Dustin Fowler. You take a big swing with them and they probably counter with Frazier, Andujar and Acevedo.

It's not at all farfetched. If you could turn Duffy and Salvy into Frazier, Adell, Thiess, Adujar, Canning and Acevedo....jesus, you've loaded that system to the gills. That's probably a little higher return than you'd get but you're dabbling in the margins, IMO.

That's two incredibly toolsy young OFers, your corner IF of the future with a couple of nice polished hitters, a high end (seriously high end) young arm in Acevedo and a high floor almost certain 3rd starter in Canning.

You'd be well on your way to competing, if not contending, by 2021 if you supplement those deals with smart acquisitions.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by dallaschiefsfan

Again...I know that seems to make sense...but name one executive that is ready to restock our system with trades for either of those guys. MAYBE at the trade deadline. Other GM's are inquiring, because if we're rebuilding...they want to see if they can get a bargain. Few clubs will offer what we want if they feel they have leverage because they believe rebuilding for us means every player must go.

Depends on your definition of "restocking" the farm.

Team control is probably the biggest asset in baseball right now. Four years of Danny Duffy at an AAV of $13 million and four years of Salvador Perez at an AAV of $12 million would hold real value.

I agree that Duffy isn't going to fetch Jose Quintana-level returns - not quite - but he'd be close-ish. The Cubs are checking in, which means they start with Happ or Schwarber on that deal. Neither is a prospect anymore, but Happ has six years of control remaining and proved he can succeed at the MLB level (and was a top 20-25 guy entering last season; if anything, his value is perhaps a little more).

Same with Salvador Perez. He's very good and controlled for a long period of time. Teams pay more now for very good + control than they do for great + no control (in general).

If the Royals moved both of those guys in separate trades, I'd expect to add 3-5 top 100 prospects (maybe one around top 25, a few top 50) and 2-3 more "pieces."

A Duffy for Happ trade straight up would be pretty close to done. Might get a little more. While Duffy to the Yankees would suck, that may be the best match if they get to it. Frazier + Adams would be pretty enticing.

The Salvador Perez-angels trade proposal/idea is a pretty good one. Jo Addell is someone the Royals really liked entering last year's draft. Not sure where he ends up on 2018 lists, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a top 50ish ranking.

The Brewers also seem like a good match to me for Perez. They have OFs coming out their ears.

[Sure-Oz]

@jcrasnick: Carlos Gonzalez is flying under the radar, but a lot of teams are interested because he's likely to sign a short-term deal to re-establish his value. #SFGiants, #Royals, #Athletics, #Rays and #BlueJays are among the teams believed to be keeping an eye on him.

[tk13]

Scott Boras on modern evaluations of players: "The eye test is winning over metric evaluations."

— Tom (@Haudricourt) December 13, 2017