Justin Houston SHOULD be traded

[kcbubb]

Update 4/17:

I did not fully explain my rational for trading Houston in the original post. Houston should be traded because the Chiefs do not have history of paying big contracts. The most likely outcome of this negotiation is that we will franchise Houston for the next two years and then let him walk. This is an unacceptable outcome. The Chiefs have the opportunity to build the team for the long term rather than see our best player leave with nothing in return. I am assuming that the Chiefs won't pay a huge contract, and I am assuming that Houston will demand a huge contract. The likely outcome of those assumptions are Houston being franchised for two years and then leaving to get the big contract he desires from another team.

Houston will likely demand a better contract than JJ Watts because Suh's contract is really a lot more upfront money than JJ Watts' contract. Compare the two contracts here:
Suh: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/miami-dol...ndamukong-suh/
Watt: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/j.j.-watt/

Suh is getting about $50 million over the first two years where Watt is getting closer to $20 million over the first two years. I included the signing bonus in those totals. I believe that Watt's contract is now the minimum. In today's market, Houston should command a bigger contract than Watt based on the other free agents that have been signed. Here's a good article on the upward trending contracts. http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_...ource=infinite I do realize that Suh was a free agent while Watt was still under contract. But Watt signed with a year remaining on his deal. This is what we should have done with Houston. We should have signed him to a cheaper deal a year ago. Houston will most likely command a higher contract than Watt.

With all of this bad news, we could potentially have some luck. And we are due for some luck as Chiefs fans. We have waited for high draft picks to see them used on Tyson Jackson and Eric Berry. Maybe we could be fortunate and see some talent fall to us at 18 this year. I believe that there is a good chance that Randy Gregory could fall to 18. He was almost kicked off his team because of repeated pot use and he still made the choice to use pot to the point that he failed the drug test at the combine. This year has several good edge rushers and I think Gregory could fall to us because Fowler, Beasley, Ray and Dupree are such good prospects. Gregory had a 1.57 ten yard split at 6'5" and 240 lbs. He has 34" arms and did 24 reps on the bench press. His 3 cone is 6.79! http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profil...ory?id=2552446 I don't think I need to talk about Gregory too much. I think most of you know that he is a great player. I don't think that Gregory will be suspended for pot use in the future. If Gregory falls to us, we should take him and trade Houston.

If we draft Gregory, I think we have to trade Houston. We should not have that many edge rushers on the roster. The young guys need to play as much as possible and we don't need to wrap that much $$$ in one position. The value of two first round picks for Houston with Houston receiving the type of contract that he will likely command is very unlikely. We will have to take less. I have a scenario that I believe is possible and that I believe could work for us. We could trade Houston to the Colts for their 29th pick this year, 2nd & 4th round picks in 2016 and their center, Jonotthan Harrison. With the 29th pick, we should take Jalen Collins. His ability best fits our bump and run style of defense. A CB like Collins should transition quickly to our defense because of the lack of complexity.

Harrison started 10 games for the Colts last year. You can read about him here. http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014/profil...son?id=2543578 Here's another review of Harrison. http://coltsacademy.com/?p=3743 His run blocking ability has me salivating. I don't consider Harrison a huge value, but he does fit Reid's mauler type and hopefully he can improve in pass blocking. He's a cheap addition with a cost of about $500k per year. He can provide starting experience and if we can help him in the passing game with our improved guard play because of Grubbs, he could be a suitable center for us. The Colts can afford to trade him because they have Holmes returning from injury. Holmes is the likely starter. The Colts also have the cap room to sign Houston to a strong contract if they cut either Erik Walden or Robert Mathis. Mathis was injured last year, and if he doesn't get healthy, he could be cut anyway. The Colts are in position to make a superbowl run with Houston on their team.

The Chiefs would obtain 4 players for Houston with this trade and trading Houston makes picking Gregory at 18 fit. I think this trade is possible because of the assumption that Gregory falls and a top CB like Jalen Collins is available when the Colts pick. Harrison provides us with a potential starter at Center. For a trade to work, there has to be a willing partner. I think the Colts would be a willing partner under these assumptions. And we need to trade Houston since it is likely that he will only be here for two more years. The Chiefs would have time to make the trade with the Colts after picking Gregory.

I still believe #1, #2 and #5 from my original post below still apply.

Original post from 3/12 below:

The Chiefs should trade Houston to the Jags for their 2nd round pick this year and their first round pick in 2016.

The Chiefs should do this bc:

1. Our roster does not have enough talent to make a run at the Super Bowl. Most position groups on the Chiefs roster are aging, average or below average. If we resign Houston to a JJ Watt level contract, we will mortgage our future and prohibit the rebuilding of our roster. We will have cap problems for years to come and this will limit our future potential to resign quality players and seek essential free agents.

2. The Broncos have a Super Bowl roster but this roster is aging rapidly. The Broncos are the favorites for the AFC west this year but with an aging roster and with future cap restraints the Chiefs should build for future dominance in 2016 and beyond.

3. Our 18th pick does not fit our biggest needs in 2015. We need to draft an OL early but the 18th pick is too high to draft an OL. The Chiefs should draft Bud Dupree with the 18th pick. He is a freak. Has anyone ever had a 42" vertical at 269 lbs? Check his measurables here: http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/...ree?id=2552289 He reminds me of Poe in that he is a freak with limited stats, but he's a worker with good character. Hali and Ford could start with Dupree rotating in and providing competition.

The second pick from the Jags allows us to take Cameron Erving, who is the most versatile player in this draft on the OL. He has experience at C, G & T. He is the highest rated C, but has the athletic ability and length to kick outside. Check his measurables here: http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profil...ing?id=2552240

4. This gives us a first round pick in 2016 that could likely be a high pick. We would enter 2016 with a ton picks and have a real opportunity to build our roster and possibly select our QBOTF. We also will have the cap room to resign valuable players like Poe and etc. The future would be extremely bright in KC with all of those picks!

5. Houston scares me a little in that he could be another free agent that signs a big contract but doesn't produce. We just did that with Bowe. I'd rather move forward with multiple picks and give us a better chance of getting a Super Bowl in the future. Plus, we have Hali that can temporarily fill the void. Dee Ford needs to play also. You don't spend a first round pick on a non QB to let them sit the bench.

In summary, this is an exception to the rule of resigning a quality player at an important position. We have starters at the position. Our roster needs to be rebuilt. The draft favors this trade with value in Dupree rather than OL at 18. We get two #1s in 2016, and there is always the possibility that Houston doesn't produce after the big contract.

[Cmd'r&Chief]

Originally Posted by kcbubb

The Chiefs should trade Houston to the Jags for their 2nd round pick this year and their first round pick in 2016.

The Chiefs should do this bc:

1. Our roster does not have enough talent to make a run at the Super Bowl. Most position groups on the Chiefs roster are aging, average or below average. If we resign Houston to a JJ Watt level contract, we will mortgage our future and prohibit the rebuilding of our roster. We will have cap problems for years to come and this will limit our future potential to resign quality players and seek essential free agents.

2. The Broncos have a Super Bowl roster but this roster is aging rapidly. The Broncos are the favorites for the AFC west this year but with an aging roster and with future cap restraints the Chiefs should build for future dominance in 2016 and beyond.

3. Our 18th pick does not fit our biggest needs in 2015. We need to draft an OL early but the 18th pick is too high to draft an OL. The Chiefs should draft Bud Dupree with the 18th pick. He is a freak. Has anyone ever had a 42" vertical at 269 lbs? Check his measurables here: http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/...ree?id=2552289 He reminds me of Poe in that he is a freak with limited stats, but he's a worker with good character. Hali and Ford could start with Dupree rotating in and providing competition.

The second pick from the Jags allows us to take Cameron Erving, who is the most versatile player in this draft on the OL. He has experience at C, G & T. He is the highest rated C, but has the athletic ability and length to kick outside. Check his measurables here: http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profil...ing?id=2552240

4. This gives us a first round pick in 2016 that could likely be a high pick. We would enter 2016 with a ton picks and have a real opportunity to build our roster and possibly select our QBOTF. We also will have the cap room to resign valuable players like Poe and etc. The future would be extremely bright in KC with all of those picks!

5. Houston scares me a little in that he could be another free agent that signs a big contract but doesn't produce. We just did that with Bowe. I'd rather move forward with multiple picks and give us a better chance of getting a Super Bowl in the future. Plus, we have Hali that can temporarily fill the void. Dee Ford needs to play also. You don't spend a first round pick on a non QB to let them sit the bench.

In summary, this is an exception to the rule of resigning a quality player at an important position. We have starters at the position. Our roster needs to be rebuilt. The draft favors this trade with value in Dupree rather than OL at 18. We get two #1s in 2016, and there is always the possibility that Houston doesn't produce after the big contract.

Is that you, Fat Scott?

[kcbubb]

Originally Posted by Cmd'r&Chief

OP, Why do you feel that the best LB in the league is only worth a 2nd and a 1st?

Normally, he would be. But our situation is unique. We have Hali and he can play. Ford needs to play. The draft favors the trade and taking somebody like Bud Dupree at 18, who can learn from Hali. And the value from the late first to the 36th pick of the jags is not substantial. Getting a top pick from the jags in 2016 is substantial. We can also spend the funds from Houston on other players. Also the timing is good. Our roster is not as close as most people believe it to be on CP. We need to obtain these additional picks to help build the roster. We have a ton of picks in 2016 and this is in an investment in the future when our opponents in the AFC west will likely not be very good.

[redshirt32]

you must be sitting next to Chip Kelly your joking right

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by kcbubb

Normally, he would be. But our situation is unique. We have Hali and he can play. Ford needs to play. The draft favors the trade and taking somebody like Bud Dupree at 18, who can learn from Hali. And the value from the late first to the 36th pick of the jags is not substantial. Getting a top pick from the jags in 2016 is substantial. We can also spend the funds from Houston on other players. Also the timing is good. Our roster is not as close as most people believe it to be on CP. We need to obtain these additional picks to help build the roster. We have a ton of picks in 2016 and this is in an investment in the future when our opponents in the AFC west will likely not be very good.

Welp, on paper, the team is a lot better than it was 72 hours ago is one flaw in your logic.

[Cmd'r&Chief]

Originally Posted by kcbubb

Normally, he would be. But our situation is unique. We have Hali and he can play. Ford needs to play. The draft favors the trade and taking somebody like Bud Dupree at 18, who can learn from Hali. And the value from the late first to the 36th pick of the jags is not substantial. Getting a top pick from the jags in 2016 is substantial. We can also spend the funds from Houston on other players. Also the timing is good. Our roster is not as close as most people believe it to be on CP. We need to obtain these additional picks to help build the roster. We have a ton of picks in 2016 and this is in an investment in the future when our opponents in the AFC west will likely not be very good.

Do you know the talent of Dee Ford? Is he ready?

Do you know Tamba is getting old? He is more prone to getting injured as he gets older

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Put it this way: where does Justin Houston fit on this chart?

Somewhere. You're essentially taking him off it altogether. Use that very sheet - moving down from 18-29 is essentially worth the 61 and when you use the time value of draft picks (generally subtract a round for the following year's pick) the value of the pick we'd get from the Colts in 16 is worth almost identical to the pick we didn't get when we moved down.

You have the numbers in front of you - why is it that you can't see this? You are essentially saying Justin Houston has absolutely zero value in your hypothetical.

Look at it this way - You're the one calling the Colts giving him a post-draft offer sheet a 'blindside' and pretty much a worst case scenario.

Okay, under that 'worst case scenario' we'd get end up with the #18 in this year's draft, the Colts first rounder in '16 and their first rounder in '17.

Under your incredibly awful scenario we'd end up with the #29 in this draft and the Colts first rounder in '16.

Your 'mitigation' has moved us back 10 spots in the '15 draft while also costing us a first rounder in the '17 draft. That's how wildly, incredibly awful this deal is.

Again - it's easily the dumbest suggestion made in this thread thus far. By a lot.

[kcbubb]

Originally Posted by Cmd'r&Chief

OP, Why do you feel that the best LB in the league is only worth a 2nd and a 1st?

Again many on here don't believe he would worth a late first in 2016 and 2017. And a pick in the top 10 in 2016 is probably worth both of those pics. Some of you simple minded could think of it that way. You are getting a high 2nd this year. And a top 10 pick in 2016 is worth a late first in 2016 and a late first in 2017.

Having a high pick is extremely valuable. Most of CP is missing that. I'm really surprised. If we could get a high pick in 2016, that's huge. Plus, we still have the money that we would have paid to Houston to sign other guys? Come on!

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Somewhere. You're essentially taking him off it altogether. Use that very sheet - moving down from 18-29 is essentially worth the 61 and when you use the time value of draft picks (generally subtract a round for the following year's pick) the value of the pick we'd get from the Colts in 16 is worth almost identical to the pick we didn't get when we moved down.

You have the numbers in front of you - why is it that you can't see this? You are essentially saying Justin Houston has absolutely zero value in your hypothetical.

Look at it this way - You're the one calling the Colts giving him a post-draft offer sheet a 'blindside' and pretty much a worst case scenario.

Okay, under that 'worst case scenario' we'd get end up with the #18 in this year's draft, the Colts first rounder in '16 and their first rounder in '17.

Under your incredibly awful scenario we'd end up with the #29 in this draft and the Colts first rounder in '16.

Your 'mitigation' has moved us back 10 spots in the '15 draft while also costing us a first rounder in the '17 draft. That's how wildly, incredibly awful this deal is.

Again - it's easily the dumbest suggestion made in this thread thus far. By a lot.

So what if the deal was Houston and KC's 2015 first for Indy's 2015 first and second picks and Indy's 2016 first conditional 2-4th rounders? I know full well you're going to say that this probably undervalues what KC gets back.

It seems to me that the narrative has been that Justin Houston has this Uncertainty Principle aspect about what his value is. On one hand it's been pointed out that non-QBs aren't worth two first round picks at all. But on the other hand we've got what was given up for Jared Allen before the recent league and union deals reigned in rookie contracts.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

So what if the deal was Houston and KC's 2015 first for Indy's 2015 first and second picks and Indy's 2016 first conditional 2-4th rounders? I know full well you're going to say that this probably undervalues what KC gets back.

It seems to me that the narrative has been that Justin Houston has this Uncertainty Principle aspect about what his value is. On one hand it's been pointed out that non-QBs aren't worth two first round picks at all. But on the other hand we've got what was given up for Jared Allen before the recent league and union deals reigned in rookie contracts.

Under no circumstances does KC have any business trading their first and Justin Houston for the privilege of moving back in the first this year and then getting less than what we'd have gotten had we just forced teams to offer him a sheet.

If the Chiefs don't get an offer sheet caliber deal, you play Justin Houston on the tag for two years - the end. The worst case deal you'd even consider would be the post-draft sheet from a team like Indy that's going to be at the bottom of the draft both of those years but again, that deal is much better than what you've proposed for the reasons already stated.

[DaKCMan AP]

Originally Posted by kcbubb

Again many on here don't believe he would worth a late first in 2016 and 2017. And a pick in the top 10 in 2016 is probably worth both of those pics. Some of you simple minded could think of it that way. You are getting a high 2nd this year. And a top 10 pick in 2016 is worth a late first in 2016 and a late first in 2017.

Having a high pick is extremely valuable. Most of CP is missing that. I'm really surprised. If we could get a high pick in 2016, that's huge. Plus, we still have the money that we would have paid to Houston to sign other guys? Come on!

Ok, simpleton.

1. A 2016 1st round pick has the value of a 2015 2nd round pick. You're essentially trading Houston for 2 2nd round picks.

2. There is absolutely zero guarantee that the 2016 1st round pick will be a top-10 pick. Gigantic assumption on your part.

[Eleazar]

Originally Posted by kcbubb

The second pick from the Jags allows us to take Cameron Erving, who is the most versatile player in this draft on the OL. He has experience at C, G & T. He is the highest rated C, but has the athletic ability and length to kick outside. Check his measurables here: http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profil...ing?id=2552240

Hay guyz, we should trade Justin Houston for a Center!

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DaKCMan AP

Ok, simpleton.

1. A 2016 1st round pick has the value of a 2015 2nd round pick. You're essentially trading Houston for 2 2nd round picks.

2. There is absolutely zero guarantee that the 2016 1st round pick will be a top-10 pick. Gigantic assumption on your part.

haha.

See, this is what makes this so damn funny to me.

Half this board is calling him an idiot for demanding way too much, the other half is calling him an idiot for taking way too little.

Come the **** on, people - if that's the case, then there's clearly a disagreement over his trade value and any discussion of same probably shouldn't be met with "what a ****ing moron" - the board seemingly has no idea what he's worth either.

I'm guessing this is one of those things where people just kinda hate KCBubb to begin with for some reason. As someone that's left for awhile and is just looking at this with a fairly alien perspective, the vitriol over merely discussing this from both sides of the aisle just makes me laugh.

[buddha]

That was one of the worst OPs ever.

Painfully stupid.

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by kcbubb

Having a high pick is extremely valuable. Most of CP is missing that. I'm really surprised. If we could get a high pick in 2016, that's huge. Plus, we still have the money that we would have paid to Houston to sign other guys? Come on!

Getting a high draft pick in 2016 is not worth giving up a linebacker in the prime of his career who is coming off a 20+ sack season.

[kcbubb]

Originally Posted by DaKCMan AP

Ok, simpleton.

1. A 2016 1st round pick has the value of a 2015 2nd round pick. You're essentially trading Houston for 2 2nd round picks.

2. There is absolutely zero guarantee that the 2016 1st round pick will be a top-10 pick. Gigantic assumption on your part.

#1 above is stupid. The 2016 picks value depends on where it is in the draft. If the 2016 pick is a late pick, you might be right. If the pick is a top 10 pick the next year, it has very high value.

#2 Yes, this is a gigantic assumption on my part. I don't think the jags will be good and no one in the thread has argued that to this point. Most have assumed that this is fairly reasonable assumption.