Chiefs Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can! - Page 9

frozenchief · 08-05-2015, 01:00 PM

Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes:

Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers.

Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.

Pablo · 08-06-2015, 09:40 AM

Geno gets three years to prove that he gets it. Alice gets 11. Two different turds swirling the same bowl.

**Mav** · 08-06-2015, 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BossChief

I'd rather have Geno Smith groomed for a couple years to be the starter than the crap we've gotten from Eric Fisher, thus far.

Or Bridgewater the next year

Or Carr

I really think this team ****ed up by not at least taking a shot.

The bridgewater one was mind numbing on two fronts. One that the clowns took Johnny 8 ball instead, and the Chiefs passed and took Dee Ford.

It shouldn't be surprising. One franchise doesn't draft qb's in the first round, and the other grabs every bust, every year.

Trent Richardson, weeden, Justin Gilbert, Johnny Manziel, Mingo. Brady Quinn, flipping spots with the Ravens so the Ravens got haloti ngata, and the Browns took kam wimbley.

Gross.

**ExtremeChief** · 08-06-2015, 09:41 AM

**Mav** · 08-06-2015, 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

There's a certain contingent here outright ignoring the existence of Bridgewater.

Psh. Carr or Bridgewater. My god.

ThaVirus · 08-06-2015, 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

4500 yards, 30 tds passing.

5k total yards this year. Book it

If true and assuming no catastrophic injuries, we win 12-13 games.

Tombstone RJ · 08-06-2015, 09:44 AM

I was very surprised kc didn't take Bridgewater. I thought, for sure, Bridgewater was gonna be a chief. I mean, he was just sitting there.

**Mav** · 08-06-2015, 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pablo

Geno gets three years to prove that he gets it. Alice gets 11. Two different turds swirling the same bowl.

Um, do you realize that Alex Smith hasn't had a losing record since 2010?

That's the reason he's still in the league. Geno also had attitude and dedication issues.

Talk about apples and oranges.

Alex is extremely limited but he's an unquestioned leader who won't directly affect the outcome of a game both good and bad. Gene has been a walking cancer since the draft.

**Mav** · 08-06-2015, 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

If true and assuming no catastrophic injuries, we win 12-13 games.

If Alex throws for 4500 yards I'll leave cp forever.

**Mav** · 08-06-2015, 09:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ

I was very surprised kc didn't take Bridgewater. I thought, for sure, Bridgewater was gonna be a chief. I mean, he was just sitting there.

He fits every quality that Andy likes. I'd love to know why they passed on him.

**BigMeatballDave** · 08-06-2015, 09:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

4500 yards, 30 tds passing.

5k total yards this year. Book it

Love the optimism, but I'd be surprised to see 4000.

Tombstone RJ · 08-06-2015, 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mav

He fits every quality that Andy likes. I'd love to know why they passed on him.

yep, he had everything Andy Reid likes in a QB... the only thing I can think of as to why kc didn't draft Bridgewater is because they didn't want to upset Alex Smith, which makes sense. They have paid Smith to be the man and they didn't want another situation like the one in SF.

Hydrae · 08-06-2015, 09:51 AM

I have to wonder how these number look just for the last couple of years compared with what the Eagles were doing under Andy. In other words, how much of this is the QB and how much is the system that is being run.

**Mav** · 08-06-2015, 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ

yep, he had everything Andy Reid likes in a QB... the only thing I can think of as to why kc didn't draft Bridgewater is because they didn't want to upset Alex Smith, which makes sense. They have paid Smith to be the man and they didn't want another situation like the one in SF.

Yeah that's a good point.

**The Franchise** · 08-06-2015, 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mav

He fits every quality that Andy likes. I'd love to know why they passed on him.

Didn't want another Belcher situation with Smith.

O.city · 08-06-2015, 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

If true and assuming no catastrophic injuries, we win 12-13 games.

Mark it down, to the ship, get your tickets.

Superbowl contender.

08-05-2015, 01:00 PM
frozenchief Veteran Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: Alaska Casino cash: $1641379	Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can! Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes: Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers. Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.
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08-06-2015, 09:40 AM	#121
Pablo Ultrabanned Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: KCMO Casino cash: $2039356	Geno gets three years to prove that he gets it. Alice gets 11. Two different turds swirling the same bowl.
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08-06-2015, 09:41 AM	#123
ExtremeChief Poser Join Date: Mar 2001 Location: BFE, MO Casino cash: $9991344	__________________ When you wish upon a falling star, your dreams can come true. Unless it's really a meteorite hurtling to the Earth which will destroy all life. Then you're pretty much hosed no matter what you wish for. Unless it's death by meteor.
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08-06-2015, 09:44 AM	#126
Tombstone RJ Broncos' Fan Extraordinaire! Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denver Casino cash: $10012184	I was very surprised kc didn't take Bridgewater. I thought, for sure, Bridgewater was gonna be a chief. I mean, he was just sitting there. __________________ ORANGE COLORED GLASSES ARE ALWAYS ON!
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08-06-2015, 09:51 AM	#132
Hydrae Sandbox: Leander Lasercats Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Austin, Tx Casino cash: $2347000	I have to wonder how these number look just for the last couple of years compared with what the Eagles were doing under Andy. In other words, how much of this is the QB and how much is the system that is being run.
Posts: 14,686