Realistic expectations for Patrick Mahomes

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by Deberg_1990

3200 yards passing

18 TDs
7 INTs

Very 'Alex Smith' like numbers

[-King-]

I predict 4000 yard, 25 TD and 17INT.
Posted via Mobile Device

[RustShack]

I can’t believe people think Pat will only throw in the 3,000’s.

Do you have any idea how talented he is? Any idea what weapons he has? Or most of all any idea who our coach is?

Andy is building an Air-Raid offense. We’re in big trouble if you’re only throwing for 3,000 in the air raid.

[Ming the Merciless]

Originally Posted by RustShack

I can’t believe people think Pat will only throw in the 3,000’s.

yes because anythign short of 4000 is a failure and theres no way he could throw for less in his rookie season

LOL

good to see ol rusty the homer back at it

by the way how many rookie / red shirt QB's have gone over 4000 ?? just out of curiousity

[RustShack]

Originally Posted by Pawnmower

yes because anythign short of 4000 is a failure and theres no way he could throw for less in his rookie season

LOL

good to see ol rusty the homer back at it

by the way how many rookie / red shirt QB's have gone over 4000 ?? just out of curiousity

How many 2nd year QB’s have his arm, coach, and supporting cast, and play in such a pass heavy system?

[Ming the Merciless]

Originally Posted by RustShack

How many 2nd year QB’s have his arm, coach, and supporting cast, and play in such a pass heavy system?

i think cam newton in 2011 broke 4000 yards in his 1st full season...

bledsoe did it...but started like 13 games the year before...so i dunno if this counts really

also dan marino in 1984 (he started 10 games in 83 though....)

im not totally sure but my question is genuine

are there any other QB's who have broken 4000 yards in their 1st full season? Any who have started in only 1 game or less?

[RealSNR]

In order for Patrick Mahomes to NOT throw for 4000 yards this year (barring injuries, which wouldn't be his fault) one or a combination of the following things would have to happen:

-His completion percentage does what it probably hasn't done since he first started playing QB: tanks to an abysmal level. Not just below 60... we're talking like barely above 50.

-He throws a ****ing TON of INTs. Like... Trent Green 2001-level numbers of INTs. Or fumbles. Just doesn't take care of the football. Like 25 picks we're talking.

-Somehow, inexplicably, our defense becomes a shutdown force, and Andy Reid follows suit by turning the offensive balance back to the run game, something he's done... well, never.

I just don't think any of those things are very likely to happen. Yeah, his completion percentage might not be as high as we want it. Or his INTs might be too high. But that's not going to be enough to take away from him getting a 4000 yard season, given how much we'll be chucking it, who we'll have for skill weapons, and how often the need will arise for him to save the defense's ass.

[Pablo]

Originally Posted by RealSNR

In order for Patrick Mahomes to NOT throw for 4000 yards this year (barring injuries, which wouldn't be his fault) one or a combination of the following things would have to happen:

-His completion percentage does what it probably hasn't done since he first started playing QB: tanks to an abysmal level. Not just below 60... we're talking like barely above 50.

-He throws a ****ing TON of INTs. Like... Trent Green 2001-level numbers of INTs. Or fumbles. Just doesn't take care of the football. Like 25 picks we're talking.

-Somehow, inexplicably, our defense becomes a shutdown force, and Andy Reid follows suit by turning the offensive balance back to the run game, something he's done... well, never.

I just don't think any of those things are very likely to happen. Yeah, his completion percentage might not be as high as we want it. Or his INTs might be too high. But that's not going to be enough to take away from him getting a 4000 yard season, given how much we'll be chucking it, who we'll have for skill weapons, and how often the need will arise for him to save the defense's ass.

Maybe Hill, Kelce, Watkins and Hunt are all maimed simultaneously in a freak sawmill accident. They have all had their hands cut off. Just nubs to catch with.

And the Chiefs want to see them through this awful time and we make a go of it with our four main weapons catching with their forearms.

Pat's stat line in this scenario:

59% completion
3,850 yards
20 TD's
8 INT's

[Chiefaholic]

I'm going to try to give an honest prediction w/o sounding too homerish. But, Andy loves to put the ball in the air. He knew what the limitations were with Alex, and game planned within his strengths. Mahomes physical abilities, combined with the downfield speed of Hill and Watson will spread out defenses and keep the damn safties out of the box. I'm looking for at least a couple deep passes in every game, Kelce having his best year as a Chief, and the running game having it's best YPC since Charles was in his prime.

As far as Mahomes, he's going to make mistakes as a rookie and have just an average TD to INT ratio as a rookie. I'm going to be pessimistic and guess 3800 yards, 26 TD's, and 20 INT's in his first year as a starter. I hope I'm wrong, but I saw a little of it in the Donkey game where he trusted his arm strength a little too much and put the ball in very tight windows. Hopefully an entire offseason will allow the WR's to get used to the velocity of his pass.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

I just laugh at anything that says the Chiefs aren’t favorites, or at least 2nd.

Two time defending champions of the West and in my opinion they have upgraded on both offense and defense (after the draft for sure) as an overall team. The Andy Reid factor alone should give them the benefit of the doubt with oddsmakers.

It’s whatever though, guess they need to prove it regardless.

[Ming the Merciless]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

I just laugh at anything that says the Chiefs aren’t favorites, or at least 2nd.

yep. we are last currently, by a narrow margin but according to vegas odds even the broncos are favored to win the AFC more than us..

and yes..

I agree we have to prove it. We blew the team up pretty well....so I mean....I'm not completely surprised but then again I am am prepared for some bumps in the road and some growing pains

[Best22]

If there were tough teams in the division then it'd be one thing, but who really believes in the s***** Broncos or Raiders, or even the Chargers who always melt when they have to play the Chiefs?

I trust KC to win the West more than any of those other losers

[Ming the Merciless]

I guess I just view the term 'expect' a little differently than some. I personally don't think its reasonable to expect 4000 yards this season....more than any chief in history, more than 99% of any QB in their 1st full season etc,....

I mean, I think he has a decent chance of doing it....but I do not 'expect' it nor will I be disappointed if he has like 3650 yards or something and doesnt break 4k.

to me, his expectations in his 1st full season have to start with being able to read defenses, call audibles, react well to blitzes, control happy feet....throw the ball away... and change plays etc...and go from there. He's had one game in the nfl....

I mean everyone has said he is a work in progress....so my expectations are lower than my hopes. I hope he makes the pro bowl ...I hope we win the division. but expect it? not me.

[O.city]

Didn’t Alex just throw for 4000 yards last year

[Ming the Merciless]

Originally Posted by O.city

Didn’t Alex just throw for 4000 yards last year

yeah...a remarkable season in what....his 13th year? 5th year of being QB here....

It seems like a bunch of people are setting the bar wayyyy too high for this kid....almost like so they can complain about when he doesnt make 4000 yards...

Why not compare alex's 1st full season or 1st game against pat's?

I mean...