Chiefs Author says Watkins signing was a "reckless decision". - Page 3

T-post Tom · 01:46 PM

Overcorrection at WR2 strange strategy for Chiefs

For over a decade, the Kansas City Chiefs either could not find the right No. 2 wide receiver or deemed the job a low priority.

The Andy Reid years regarded the role as a non-essential component in an offense that funnels through Travis Kelce, whoever is playing running back, and the player lining up as Kansas City’s No. 1 wideout. The Chiefs — who have spent over half of the past 30 years running their aerial attack through All-Pro-caliber tight ends — have not had two wide receivers amass more than 800 air yards in the same season since Carlos Carson and Stephone Paige did so in 1985.

Even last summer — when the Chiefs, on the surface, seemed to have a quality wideout tandem in Tyreek Hill and Jeremy Maclin — the franchise’s tendencies resurfaced when Maclin was a surprise cut.

To see the Chiefs overcorrect to the degree they did this week in signing Sammy Watkins was stunning on several fronts.

If everything goes as the team hopes, the Chiefs now have the best wide receiver duo they’ve possessed in the history of the franchise. The top four weapons Kansas City has could rival almost any crew in the league, with a perennial Pro Bowler at tight end and the reigning rushing champion in the mix for years. Reid and Brett Veach have outfitted Patrick Mahomes with the kind of artillery Alex Smith never received. It’s a tantalizing setup.

All of that said, this can be categorized as a reckless decision.

In a vacuum, Watkins being paid $16 million per year and receiving $30M guaranteed is ludicrous based on his qualifications. He’s now the fourth-highest-paid wide receiver on the planet when he might not be a top-20 player at the position. But free agency demands high-stakes buyers treat above-average talent like franchise-changing presences, and the cap continues to rise by approximately $10M annually.

When analyzing this transaction through a Chief lens, it’s also a weird call.

As has been the case every year since the Eddie Kennison-Johnnie Morton pair disbanded, the Chiefs could have probably used a WR2 upgrade. They haven’t selected a wideout in the first or second rounds since the disastrous 2011 Jonathan Baldwin pick. Watkins, at his very best version when healthy, is slightly overqualified to be referred to as such. Hill took a major step forward last season, though, and is the top Chief receiver. There were several areas that could have used this gigantic expenditure more than wide receiver.

Kansas City has needs across its defense, which continued to regress last season. Its top two edge rushers are injury-prone, with one (Dee Ford) proving unreliable through four years. There are no long-term answers on the defensive line beyond Chris Jones. Since the Chiefs traded away their best cornerback in at least 20 years, that is a priority.

More than that, how much is Watkins going to matter to this team?

His agent did a brilliant job, and there was clearly a big market for him — and other receivers, as this unexpected boom displayed. Equipping a young quarterback with more receiving help is a good idea. Watkins has averaged the fourth-most yards per catch (15.9) since 2014. The deep threat also has produced an arguably unsustainable (but impressive) touchdown rate with 25 in 52 games. But there’s a difference between the Bears doling out $14M per year to Allen Robinson and this.

Chicago desperately needed offensive weapons, having no threats at wide receiver or tight end. The Chiefs have — now that Rob Gronkowski is a year-to-year proposition — the most valuable tight end in the game. Hill is on the verge of becoming one of the NFL’s premier wideouts.

Reid’s playbook has used this job as a niche role. Kelce will still be the offensive focal point, and Hunt’s and Hill’s futures are glowing. Granted, Watkins is better than Albert Wilson, Chris Conley or Donnie Avery. But is Watkins — in this offense — worth $16 million when other positions are in dire need of aid?

This is like an NBC executive circa 2009 saying, “We really aren’t getting what we need out of the HR character on ‘The Office.’ What can we offer Seth Rogen to come in and replace Toby?”

As you may have heard, Watkins did not exactly thrive in his contract year. Despite being part of a cutting-edge Ram scheme, the former No. 4 pick caught 39 passes for 593 yards (a distant fourth in Sean McVay’s attack) and eight touchdowns.

To some degree, that showing could be written off because of Watkins’ late-offseason relocation. That would justify the Chiefs’ investment if Watkins wasn’t constantly battling nagging or season-defining injuries. Multiple severe foot ailments limited him to eight games in 2016. Two screws were inserted in Watkins’ foot in January of 2017 after recovery setbacks. An ankle injury cost him two games in 2015, and while he didn’t miss any games as a rookie, the Clemson product required hip surgery after the 2014 season. But he did play in every regular season game the Rams asked him to last year.

Coupled with the fit and the shaky contract year, this is a lot to disregard to justify the expense.

Reid remains one of the best offensive coaches in the game. He created an offense catered to an average quarterback’s talents, and the Chiefs rode it to four playoff berths in five years. The Mahomes offense could look remarkably different. Watkins — who will be only 25 this season — nearly posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons with Kyle Orton and Tyrod Taylor targeting him. However, that still doesn’t justify paying an arguably superfluous cog $16M per season.

Cheaper receivers were available. Signing one of those could have created more room to find defensive help while still upgrading on offense. This deal won’t cripple the Chiefs in the long run, but within the next three years, Hill will need to be extended.

He has two more seasons remaining on his rookie contract and likely will outproduce Watkins this season. Hill will be eligible for an extension in 2019. That could be confusing and cause cuts elsewhere when a hired gun with a low floor and debatable ceiling is now making more than Julio Jones and A.J. Green. No team has more than two WRs making $12M per year.

Again, this upgrades the Chiefs’ offense — perhaps significantly, given the attention that could come Watkins’ way to then help teammates. With a first-round quarterback with potentially top-flight arm strength, this will make the Chiefs a must-see team on offense.

Yet, it’s hard to rationalize the signing for a team that did not need to allocate these resources to fixing this particular deficiency — especially when the player comes with this many question marks.

https://www.fanragsports.com/chiefs/overcorrection-at-wr2-strange-strategy-for-chiefs/

A8bil · 03-16-2018, 02:31 PM

Injury issues aside, Watkins is a 1st tier WR. With a health Conley, Hill, Kelce and Watkins on the field, KC could have the most dangerous passing game in the league. Who do you cover? Pick your poison.

Fish · 03-16-2018, 02:35 PM

InChiefsHeaven · 03-16-2018, 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fish

That is my favorite gif ever...

**Buehler445** · 03-16-2018, 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoover

I disagree. Veach’s job is one of making choices. None are easy. To build the team for the long run it HAS to be built through the draft. No one is sever able to field the perfect team. I’d rather surround our franchise QB with outstanding talent than have Albert Wilson and some fatty on the d-line under contract.

It doesn’t have to be through the draft. In fact it is mathematically difficult to do. 7 draft picks 52 man roster that’s making dudes stick around 8 years. It is not happening.

Fact is this is a value game. What good teams do is achieve more production per unit salary cap than asshats who whiff in the draft or overpay for shit FA.

I’d argue that a Husain Abdullah type is just as important as the top 5 Eric Berry type pick. I love Berry as much as (probably more than) anybody. But Abdullah was probably more productive per unit salary cap than Berry. Probably a bad example because berry is ****ing good but you can see my point. You have to have cheap production. You need a star or two to grab a play when you have to have one but this whole thing is about cheap production.

The problem is too many guys bought what Squirmin Herman Mother****ing Sack of **** Edwards was spouting off about building through the draft when he was grounding about in Arrowhead. **** that piece of shit. You have to make sound personnel decisions at all levels, draft, FA, trade, retention, staff, all of it.

Excorcise Squirmin Herman Mother****ing Sack of **** Edwards from your being. The draft isn’t any more important than any other aspect of personnel. Sure if you hit a draft pick it is SUPER efficient money, but you don’t “build through the draft”. Squirmin Herman Mother****ing Sack of **** Edwards was a fraud and a joke.

It’s about production per unit salary cap. That’s all.

Pasta Little Brioni · 03-16-2018, 05:50 PM

Chiefs are gonna Air Raid the NFLs ass

Kiimo · 03-16-2018, 05:53 PM

"Reckless" means "scares conservative teams".

Marty wasn't reckless. Where did that get us?

NOWHERE

**DaneMcCloud** · 03-16-2018, 05:58 PM

Why would anyone care about what some butt**** with 300 Twitter followers thinks about the Chiefs?

ARROW2 · 03-16-2018, 06:12 PM

Author can eat a BBC!!

saphojunkie · 03-16-2018, 06:21 PM

I loved what reid said about this signing this morning: in he early days of free agency, you are always going to overpay for guys. The key is not overpaying for marginal players. If you overpay for a blue chip guy, you take the opportunity. And he thinks Watkins is elite.

**SAUTO** · 03-16-2018, 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoover

I hope they keep publishing shit like this. Hardly a mention of Mahomes ability to go deep and the strain Watkins will out on defenses helps every aspect of the offense. Sure we could have spent half as much for Jordy Nelson but giving real money to a WR seven years older than Watkins would have been even more foolish.

The guy said mahomes potentially has elite arm strength.

No dumbass, he has an elite arm. I was done with the article at that point

**Bwana** · 03-16-2018, 06:23 PM

After reading the article, I think the guy was smoking the crack pipe just before he wrote it.

Chiefshrink · 03-16-2018, 06:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoover

I hope they keep publishing shit like this. Hardly a mention of Mahomes ability to go deep and the strain Watkins will out on defenses helps every aspect of the offense. Sure we could have spent half as much for Jordy Nelson but giving real money to a WR seven years older than Watkins would have been even more foolish.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoover

Maclin wouldn’t have been cut had he not sucked ass. Seriously why do people talk like he was a top 10 wr? He disappeared when we needed him the most.

I agree with your takes here but in all fairness to Maclin, AS can make anybody disappear just ask Tyreek during our losing stretch and especially during our playoff loss at home vs Pitt.

Hog's Gone Fishin · 03-16-2018, 06:40 PM

Replace reckless with aggressive. I'm fine with it. He pans out we got a super talent in his prime with just the guy to deliver him the rock

tmax63 · 03-16-2018, 06:42 PM

Alternating between Hill, Watkins, Conley and throw in Dat if you want, send 1-2 deep every play and you'll have CB's with their hands on their hips by the 3rd qtr. The safeties will be sucking big wind too.

prhom · 03-16-2018, 06:53 PM

It’s a bold strategy. Reid has a plan and that usually spells trouble for the league, at least for a few games. That Kelce shovel pass play was unstoppable for 4 weeks. I’m putting my money on Reid being able to dream up some diabolical plays with this personnel group. Besides, our WR depth was tested last year and didn’t quite hold up. If price is the main reason to be upset with this move then it’s way too early to make a judgement on that.

03-16-2018, 01:40 PM
T-post Tom Threepeat! Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Milk/Honey/Gazland Casino cash: $4517293	Author says Watkins signing was a "reckless decision". Overcorrection at WR2 strange strategy for Chiefs For over a decade, the Kansas City Chiefs either could not find the right No. 2 wide receiver or deemed the job a low priority. The Andy Reid years regarded the role as a non-essential component in an offense that funnels through Travis Kelce, whoever is playing running back, and the player lining up as Kansas City’s No. 1 wideout. The Chiefs — who have spent over half of the past 30 years running their aerial attack through All-Pro-caliber tight ends — have not had two wide receivers amass more than 800 air yards in the same season since Carlos Carson and Stephone Paige did so in 1985. Even last summer — when the Chiefs, on the surface, seemed to have a quality wideout tandem in Tyreek Hill and Jeremy Maclin — the franchise’s tendencies resurfaced when Maclin was a surprise cut. To see the Chiefs overcorrect to the degree they did this week in signing Sammy Watkins was stunning on several fronts. If everything goes as the team hopes, the Chiefs now have the best wide receiver duo they’ve possessed in the history of the franchise. The top four weapons Kansas City has could rival almost any crew in the league, with a perennial Pro Bowler at tight end and the reigning rushing champion in the mix for years. Reid and Brett Veach have outfitted Patrick Mahomes with the kind of artillery Alex Smith never received. It’s a tantalizing setup. All of that said, this can be categorized as a reckless decision. In a vacuum, Watkins being paid $16 million per year and receiving $30M guaranteed is ludicrous based on his qualifications. He’s now the fourth-highest-paid wide receiver on the planet when he might not be a top-20 player at the position. But free agency demands high-stakes buyers treat above-average talent like franchise-changing presences, and the cap continues to rise by approximately $10M annually. When analyzing this transaction through a Chief lens, it’s also a weird call. As has been the case every year since the Eddie Kennison-Johnnie Morton pair disbanded, the Chiefs could have probably used a WR2 upgrade. They haven’t selected a wideout in the first or second rounds since the disastrous 2011 Jonathan Baldwin pick. Watkins, at his very best version when healthy, is slightly overqualified to be referred to as such. Hill took a major step forward last season, though, and is the top Chief receiver. There were several areas that could have used this gigantic expenditure more than wide receiver. Kansas City has needs across its defense, which continued to regress last season. Its top two edge rushers are injury-prone, with one (Dee Ford) proving unreliable through four years. There are no long-term answers on the defensive line beyond Chris Jones. Since the Chiefs traded away their best cornerback in at least 20 years, that is a priority. More than that, how much is Watkins going to matter to this team? His agent did a brilliant job, and there was clearly a big market for him — and other receivers, as this unexpected boom displayed. Equipping a young quarterback with more receiving help is a good idea. Watkins has averaged the fourth-most yards per catch (15.9) since 2014. The deep threat also has produced an arguably unsustainable (but impressive) touchdown rate with 25 in 52 games. But there’s a difference between the Bears doling out $14M per year to Allen Robinson and this. Chicago desperately needed offensive weapons, having no threats at wide receiver or tight end. The Chiefs have — now that Rob Gronkowski is a year-to-year proposition — the most valuable tight end in the game. Hill is on the verge of becoming one of the NFL’s premier wideouts. Reid’s playbook has used this job as a niche role. Kelce will still be the offensive focal point, and Hunt’s and Hill’s futures are glowing. Granted, Watkins is better than Albert Wilson, Chris Conley or Donnie Avery. But is Watkins — in this offense — worth $16 million when other positions are in dire need of aid? This is like an NBC executive circa 2009 saying, “We really aren’t getting what we need out of the HR character on ‘The Office.’ What can we offer Seth Rogen to come in and replace Toby?” As you may have heard, Watkins did not exactly thrive in his contract year. Despite being part of a cutting-edge Ram scheme, the former No. 4 pick caught 39 passes for 593 yards (a distant fourth in Sean McVay’s attack) and eight touchdowns. To some degree, that showing could be written off because of Watkins’ late-offseason relocation. That would justify the Chiefs’ investment if Watkins wasn’t constantly battling nagging or season-defining injuries. Multiple severe foot ailments limited him to eight games in 2016. Two screws were inserted in Watkins’ foot in January of 2017 after recovery setbacks. An ankle injury cost him two games in 2015, and while he didn’t miss any games as a rookie, the Clemson product required hip surgery after the 2014 season. But he did play in every regular season game the Rams asked him to last year. Coupled with the fit and the shaky contract year, this is a lot to disregard to justify the expense. Reid remains one of the best offensive coaches in the game. He created an offense catered to an average quarterback’s talents, and the Chiefs rode it to four playoff berths in five years. The Mahomes offense could look remarkably different. Watkins — who will be only 25 this season — nearly posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons with Kyle Orton and Tyrod Taylor targeting him. However, that still doesn’t justify paying an arguably superfluous cog $16M per season. Cheaper receivers were available. Signing one of those could have created more room to find defensive help while still upgrading on offense. This deal won’t cripple the Chiefs in the long run, but within the next three years, Hill will need to be extended. He has two more seasons remaining on his rookie contract and likely will outproduce Watkins this season. Hill will be eligible for an extension in 2019. That could be confusing and cause cuts elsewhere when a hired gun with a low floor and debatable ceiling is now making more than Julio Jones and A.J. Green. No team has more than two WRs making $12M per year. Again, this upgrades the Chiefs’ offense — perhaps significantly, given the attention that could come Watkins’ way to then help teammates. With a first-round quarterback with potentially top-flight arm strength, this will make the Chiefs a must-see team on offense. Yet, it’s hard to rationalize the signing for a team that did not need to allocate these resources to fixing this particular deficiency — especially when the player comes with this many question marks. https://www.fanragsports.com/chiefs/overcorrection-at-wr2-strange-strategy-for-chiefs/ Last edited by T-post Tom; 03-16-2018 at 01:46 PM..
Posts: 20,242

03-16-2018, 02:31 PM	#31
A8bil Starter Join Date: Sep 2017 Casino cash: $3250400	Injury issues aside, Watkins is a 1st tier WR. With a health Conley, Hill, Kelce and Watkins on the field, KC could have the most dangerous passing game in the league. Who do you cover? Pick your poison.
Posts: 986

03-16-2018, 02:35 PM	#32
Fish Ain't no relax! Join Date: Sep 2005 Casino cash: $2178919	__________________
Posts: 47,566	2 0

03-16-2018, 05:50 PM	#35
Pasta Little Brioni Consuming CP souls Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: U.S.A. Casino cash: $3878880	Chiefs are gonna Air Raid the NFLs ass __________________ **Official TFWdemB Trivia Commisioner**
Posts: 68,682

03-16-2018, 05:53 PM	#36
Kiimo MVP Join Date: Feb 2013 Location: Studio City, CA Casino cash: $3968742	"Reckless" means "scares conservative teams". Marty wasn't reckless. Where did that get us? NOWHERE
Posts: 12,666

03-16-2018, 05:58 PM	#37
DaneMcCloud Supporter Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Hollywood, CA Casino cash: $10053648	Why would anyone care about what some butt**** with 300 Twitter followers thinks about the Chiefs?
Posts: 88,960

03-16-2018, 06:12 PM	#38
ARROW2 MVP Join Date: Mar 2002 Casino cash: $9514329	Author can eat a BBC!!
Posts: 5,990

03-16-2018, 06:21 PM	#39
saphojunkie MVP Join Date: Aug 2011 Casino cash: $4656550	I loved what reid said about this signing this morning: in he early days of free agency, you are always going to overpay for guys. The key is not overpaying for marginal players. If you overpay for a blue chip guy, you take the opportunity. And he thinks Watkins is elite.
Posts: 12,579	1 0

03-16-2018, 06:23 PM	#41
Bwana It's Five O'Clock Somewhere Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Billings, Montana Casino cash: $2139443647	After reading the article, I think the guy was smoking the crack pipe just before he wrote it. __________________ Adventure is dangerous....but monotony can kill you.
Posts: 69,762	1 0

03-16-2018, 06:40 PM	#43
Hog's Gone Fishin Fish are scared of me Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $1600477	Replace reckless with aggressive. I'm fine with it. He pans out we got a super talent in his prime with just the guy to deliver him the rock
Posts: 40,365	3 0

03-16-2018, 06:42 PM	#44
tmax63 Veteran Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Colorado Casino cash: $3160400	Alternating between Hill, Watkins, Conley and throw in Dat if you want, send 1-2 deep every play and you'll have CB's with their hands on their hips by the 3rd qtr. The safeties will be sucking big wind too. __________________ An armed member of society is a citizen, an unarmed member is a subject.
Posts: 3,811

03-16-2018, 06:53 PM	#45
prhom Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Denver Casino cash: $7986013	It’s a bold strategy. Reid has a plan and that usually spells trouble for the league, at least for a few games. That Kelce shovel pass play was unstoppable for 4 weeks. I’m putting my money on Reid being able to dream up some diabolical plays with this personnel group. Besides, our WR depth was tested last year and didn’t quite hold up. If price is the main reason to be upset with this move then it’s way too early to make a judgement on that.
Posts: 2,267