A Decidely Discuss Thrower Offseason Thread

[Discuss Thrower]

First time really messing with the Fanspeak free agency simulator.

Notable Cuts: Dwayne Bowe,, Eric Berry (in lieu of NFI option) Chase Daniel, Hali, Fasano, DeVito, Ron Parker, A.J. Jenkins, Donnie Avery, Josh Mauga, Cyrus Gray, Donald Stephenson, Junior Hemingway, Chris Owens.. Sorenson?

Came up with this, cap hits for 2015 season:
Re-signed:
Houston for $11m (6 years)
Hudson for $4.05m (4 or 5 years)
Harris for $1.125m (1 or 2)
Gafford for $1m (1 or 2)
Hali for $1m (1 or 2)
Vickerson for $975k

FA signings of:
Iupati for $4.025m
Shorts for $3.045m
Andrew Gachkar for $1.080m
Kurt Coleman for $2.062m
Davon House for $1.875m

leaving $6.2m in space (tried for the last three days of FA to get Bowe or Gresham.. Couldn't land either even though I offered Bowe nearly $5m guaranteed for one year)

Then going to the draft
R1: Dante Fowler Jr., Florida OLB
R2: Maxx Williams, Minnesota TE
R3: Tyler Lockett, Kansas St. WR
R4: Kevin White, West Virginia CB
R5: B.J. Finney, Kansas St. C
R6: Marcus Hardison, Arizona St. DT
R7 James Sample, Louisville S

Yields a pre-training camp depth chart of:

QB: Smith, Terrell Pryor, Murray, Bray
RB: Charles, Davis, Thomas, West
FB: Sherman

LT: Fisher, Allen,
LG: Iupati Duvernay-Tardiff, Henry
C: Hudson, Kush, Finney
RG: Fulton, Duvernay-Tardiff
RT: Harris, Sherrod, Allen

WR: Shorts, Wilson, Da'. Rodgers, Hammond, Lockett, D'A. Thomas, Binns. F. Williams Louks
TE: Kelce, M. Williams, Dem. Harris, A. Schiltz

DE: Howard, Walker, Hardison
NT: Poe, N. Williams, Fangupo
DE: Vickerson, Bailey, Catapano

LOLB: Houston, Ford, Zombo
LILB: D. Johnson, J-M. Johnson
RILB: J. Mays, Gachkar JJ Dixon
ROLB: Hali, Martin, Fowler Jr, Moses

LCB: Gaines, House, White
SS: Coleman, Sample
FS: Abdullah, McCray, Sorenson(?)
RCB: Smith, Fleming, Cooper, Commings

K: Santos
P: Colquitt
LS: Gafford, Hartson, Hus

[CleveSteve]

R4: Kevin White, West Virginia CB

Do you mean TCU CB or WVU WR?

*edit* NM I see in your depth chart you have White, so obvi mean TCU CB.

[Discuss Thrower]

My take:

The offensive line is improved from last season through the signing of Iupati and there should be replacement level depth at every position on the line outside of left tackle.

The running game lives and dies with Jamaal as has been the story since 2010. Charcandrick West could become something special, but it'll be up to Knile and D'AT of the backfield if Jamaal goes down.

Receivers are going to be mediocre, no question. Only way to improve that corps would have been to sign Cobb, but that would have wiped out the ability to get Iupati and other depth signings. The passing game will once again rely on the productivity of the rushing offense. Albert Wilson will have to take a Hall of Fame level jump statistically to get the vertical passing game going.

Despite drafting the Golden Gopher playmaker Williams, tight end is a void outside of Kelce. There might need to be a trade made in preseason to shore up this spot.

Finally, the signal caller spot is nothing to write home about. Pryor might have some potential with his running abilities, but his duties will probably be limited to putting out any fires if Smith goes down mid-season. The biggest point of focus with the QB position this year will be if Murray steps up to unseat Pryor as backup while showing potential as the #1 guy another 2-3 years down the line.

Defensively, the strength of the unit as a pass rushing force should be solidified by the re-signing of Hali and the extension of the 2014 sack leader Houston. Further, the drafting of Fowler Jr. will put the Chiefs' minds at ease if Ford doesn't pan out opposite Houston in the future.

Gachkar is a depth signing should Derrick Johnson struggle to recover from the achilles tear.

The big men up front will remain largely the same as it ended the '14 season, though there is a huge lack of depth at the nose.

The signing of House and the selection of White out of TCU solidifies the defensive backfields along the numbers should Sean Smith or Philip Gaines fall to injury and add to the abilities of nickel and dime defenses which Sutton's defense operates out of a good amount of time each game. Between the numbers, however, will be a weakness without a dynamic playmaker at either spot.

The specialists will be about the same, though there could be some hiccoughs should Dave Toub decide Gafford isn't capable as long snapper and he opts to go with one of the two guys signed on futures contracts at the spot.

All in all the Chiefs will continue to be a young team which strength resides with the defense that will be forced to pick up an anemic offense to win games. There's no reason to believe the 2015 Chiefs will exceed their previous season record by any more than one game in the positive direction and is more likely to regress from the 2014 season.

If things work out favorably for the Chiefs in the AFC with their schedule softening up (as the AFC North thrived on beating up on the very weak NFC South to get three teams into the playoffs) and the conference as a whole is evened out through parity, they could be in play for a wild card but they aren't in any position to contend for the West title barring complete collapses by San Diego and Denver.

Likely 2015 record: 9-7, 3-3 in the division.

[kccrow]

Davon House has already publicly stated in an interview that he wouldn't sign a "3 year 6 million dollar deal or anything like that." Don't ask me to find the link, I don't remember where I read it, but it was recently. You aren't going to get him for that. Hell GB isn't going to let him go for that cheap either. I know its the fanspeak thing, but they are rarely very accurate.

[Chief Roundup]

Iupati is going to be a lot closer, if not over the $7M mark.

[O.city]

Iupati is a crap pass blocking lg. Pass

[smith11]

Originally Posted by O.city

Iupati is a crap pass blocking lg. Pass

agreed--he has suffered a lot of lower leg injuries which limit his mobility and watch the 49ers make little effort to resign him---james carpeter of seattle would be a better option as a f/a left guard..bet if niners had a do over they take dez bryant rather than iupati

[RealSNR]

That is quite a Dorseian draft. I don't doubt that ours would look very similar to that.

And that's what scares me.

[Discuss Thrower]

2.0

Cuts: Daniel, Fasano, Gray, DeVito, Hemingway, Avery, Jenkins, Hali

Restructures: Smith, Bowe (unrealistic, I know.)

Re-signs with '15 cap hits < 3,000,000:

Mauga, Harris, Vickerson, Owens, Parker, Coleman, Gafford

Re-signs: Houston 5 years 40% $19M ($7.8m in '15)
Hudson 5 years 35% of $8M ($4.2M)

Free Agency:

Randall Cobb 6 years ?% of $17M~ guaranteed ($8.4M '15) [Dez got $15M or so from Dallas]
Cecil Shorts 3 years 70%~ of $4.5M(ish) guaranteed ($3.75M in '15)
Niles Paul, 3 years 60% $3M ($2.2M in '15)

On to the draft, starting with the rest of the AFC West:

Spoiler!

Denver:
R1: Laken Tomlinson, OG
R2: Preston Smith, DE
R3: Reese Dismukes, C
R5a: Jake Ryan, OLB
R5b: Sean Hickey, OT
R6: Josh Robinson, RB
Oakland:
R1: Amari Cooper, WR
R2: Alex Carter, CB
R3: Jeremiah Poutasi, OT
R4: Henry Anderson, DE
R5: Corey Robinson, OT
R6: Christian Covington, DT
R7: Titus Davis, WR

San Diego:
R1: Nate Orchard, OLB
R2: T.J. Clemmings, OT
R3: Ellis McCarthy, DT
R4: David Johnson, RB
R5: Jesse James, TE
R6: Shane Carden, QB

.. and then Kansas City's draft

R1: Vic Beasley, OLB Clemson
R2: Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona St.
R3: Tre' Jackson, OG, Florida St.
R4: Nick O'Leary, TE, Florida St.
R5: Rob Havenstein, OT, Wisconsin
R6: Adrian Amos, S, Penn St.
R7: A.J. Tarpley, ILB, Stanford.

Chiefs' depth chart going in to OTAs:

QB: Smith, Terrell Pryor, Murray, Bray [4/4]
RB: Charles, Davis, Thomas, West [4/8]
FB: Sherman, O'Leary [2/10]

LT: Fisher, Stephenson
LG: Allen, Henry, Duvernay-Tardiff, Jackson
C: Hudson, Kush
RG: Fulton, Duvernay-Tardiff
RT: Harris, Sherrod, Havenstein [13/23]

WR: Cobb, Bowe, Shorts, Wilson, Da'. Rodgers, Hammond, Strong D'A. Thomas, Binns, F. Williams, Louks [11/34]
TE: Kelce, Paul, O'Leary, Dem. Harris, A. Schiltz [5/39]

DE: Howard, Walker
NT: Poe, N. Williams, Fangupo
DE: Vickerson, Bailey, Catapano [8/47]

LOLB: Houston, Ford, Zombo
LILB: D. Johnson, J-M. Johnson
RILB: J. Mays, Mauga, Tarpley JJ Dixon
ROLB: Hali, Martin, Beasley, Moses [13/60]

LCB: Gaines, Owens, Parker
SS: Parker, Coleman
FS: Abdullah, McCray, Sorenson(?) Amos
RCB: Smith, Fleming, Cooper, Commings [12/72]

K: Santos
P: Colquitt
LS: Gafford, Hartson, Hus [5/77]

[Discuss Thrower]

My take on Discuss Offseason 2.0:

Hudson and Houston get locked down for multiple years and there was much rejoicing. Other decent roleplayers got rewarded, namely on defense, so the unit that didn't allow an opponent to score more than 30+ all season is kept intact.

The Chiefs decided to make a splash by landing Green Bay's explosive receiver Randall Cobb and doubled down on improving the offense by signing role players in Cecil Shorts out of Jacksonville and Niles Paul out of Washington for #3 receiver and #2 tight end respectively.

On draft day, the Chiefs opted on pass rusher Vic Beasley to augment the already solid OLB duo of Hali and Houston. Beasley offers a hedge if Dee Ford doesn't wind up panning out as well as a depth selection that has more upside than Josh Martin or Frank Zombo off the edge. The offense then benefited from four straight picks, with the fortuitous drop of Jaelen Strong to the second, the similar slide of guard Tre' Jackson to the third, Jackson's Seminole teammate in Nick O'Leary in the fourth and the availability of tackle Rob Havenstein in the fifth. Defense capped off the rest of the 2015 draft with two project players in Adrian Amos in the sixth and A.J. Tarpley in the seventh.

Going into OTAs and team camp, the offense looks much better on paper though the left guard position is still unresolved with Allen, Duvernay-Tardiff and Tre' Jackson having their own strengths and weaknesses in consideration for the starting job. There could be competition for the right tackle spot if Havenstein proves to be worth more than his draft slot in the 5th round or if Sherrod regains full health after recovering from his leg injury.

The signing of Randall Cobb should free up defensive coverage for the rest of the receiving corps. Kelce and Bowe would be the biggest beneficiaries of secondaries focusing on stopping Cobb, as they both are guys who are best suited to making the most of passes thrown 5-7 yards past the LOS.

Cecil Shorts' signing means the Chiefs can operate with a three wide set with veteran guys that any QB should trust to make a play while alleviating the pressure of Albert Wilson and Jaelen Strong from feeling the heat to become go-to type guys early on in their careers.

Niles Paul and Nick O'Leary's arrival means further playcalling flexibility for Andy Reid as he should be ready to roll with three tight end sets come the first week of the season, with O'Leary's smaller size

The running back stable will thrive or die with Jamaal Charles. Ameer Abdullah was in consideration for the Chiefs' second rounder but Strong seemed a better use of resources, and there wasn't any other candidates available in later rounds that made enough sense from the Chiefs' brass to draft.

Defensively Kansas City will be an average unit of ends and tackles outside of Poe who still will be lacking a workable understudy as a pure nose tackle to give the big fourth year vet a breather in games.

The linebacking corps will continue to be the strength of the team as a whole provided Derrick Johnson can reclaim at least a portion of his athleticism coming back from an Achilles' tear. The pass rushing capabilities of the Chiefs can be supremely lethal if Dee Ford can step up from his lackluster rookie season and if Beasley proves to be a specimen in his own right.

The defensive backfield could be the weakest overall unit on the team that will be relying on improved play by Philip Gaines and either Ron Parker or Kurt Coleman to make up for the inevitable times Houston or Hali won't be able to stop a quarterback's passing attempts.

The specialists look to be unchanged, though the long snapping spot could be unresolved if Gafford doesn't outplay the two futures contracted players signed late in the season during the preseason.

TL;DR: Quarterbacks are ho-hum, the running game is the Jarmarl Charles show, the receivers are legit and have two prospects for the future, tight ends are good, the offensive line won't have Mike McGlynn, the defensive line is Poe and some other dudes, the linebackers are boss, corners and safeties are unproven, Colquitt is MVP and Santos is the RA Dickey of kickers.

[Direckshun]

If we're drafting Vic Beasley, we might as well let Hali walk.

Beasley will be gone by our pick, but I enjoy the idea of a Houston, Beasley, Ford rotation.