Chiefs This is what regression to the mean looks like - Page 2

'Hamas' Jenkins · 07:19 PM

Kareem Hunt wasn't going to keep breaking off 60-80 yard plays every week and the defense wasn't going to hold people out of the end-zone on almost every red zone trip despite getting gashed between the 20s. There is no correlation between a team's red zone rankings on a year-to-year basis. The Chiefs were extremely fortunate in the red zone early in the season, and they were incredibly lucky all of last year. Now that their luck is normalizing in those areas, they're giving up a lot more points, which is scaling to how talented the defense actually is.

If you all are freaking out, I wouldn't. The AFC is bad. The Chiefs could easily make a run. They aren't nearly as good as they looked in the first month, but they probably aren't quite as bad as they've seemed the last few games. With that said, the Chiefs can also lose to anyone because they have a legitimately bad defense. Such is the modern NFL.

KC_Connection · 11-05-2017, 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

I don't know.

Last year a huge part of our run was Eric Berry saving our ass in two or three games.

He was the team MVP. He set the tone. He changed games.

He's gone now and the D, while it hasn't bottomed out (Zeke held in check today), isn't good enough to support the offense when it reverts to Smithian form, which is bound to keep happening despite what homers think.

I don't think the defense is getting better. Either the offense goes back to being elite (unlikely given what has happened in the last month), or this team probably finishes 10-6.

There won't be a lick of hype.

11 wins is like a guarantee with this schedule and it could easily be more. The hype will build again, but I do think a lot more fans know better by now how this ends.

KC_Connection · 11-05-2017, 07:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCTitus

Whats funny is that playing in NE in September is wholly different than playing in NE in January. That said, there's no getting past Pittsburgh.

Better New England for this team than Pittsburgh. But I think they're destined for the 2 or 3 seed and a game against the Steelers in the divisional game.

Coach · 11-05-2017, 07:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Kareem Hunt wasn't going to keep breaking off 60-80 yard plays every week and the defense wasn't going to hold people out of the end-zone on almost every red zone trip despite getting gashed between the 20s. There is no correlation between a team's red zone rankings on a year-to-year basis. The Chiefs were extremely fortunate in the red zone early in the season, and they were incredibly lucky all of last year. Now that their luck is normalizing in those areas, they're giving up a lot more points, which is scaling to how talented the defense actually is.

If you all are freaking out, I wouldn't. The AFC is bad. The Chiefs could easily make a run. They aren't nearly as good as they looked in the first month, but they probably aren't quite as bad as they've seemed the last few games. With that said, the Chiefs can also lose to anyone because they have a legitimately bad defense. Such is the modern NFL.

And that's why I always hated playing the "bend but don't break" defenses because like you just said, your luck eventually runs out on the RZ defense, despite giving up so many damn yards. I get the PPG is important, but YPG should also be treated equally as well, in my opinion.

NWTF · 11-05-2017, 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

11 wins is like a guarantee with this schedule and it could easily be more. The hype will build again, but I do think a lot more fans know better by now how this ends.

Yup. The wins will come back as the schedule eases up, and the bandwagon will fill up before the playoffs start.

Reerun_KC · 11-05-2017, 07:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Actually, as long as Todd Haley keeps getting too clever by half in the red zone the Chiefs will have a chance against the Steelers because they always leave them in the game by doing dumb ****ing shit instead of just handing the ball to Bell.

Thankfully we attack the endzone while we are in the redzone.

**Buehler445** · 11-05-2017, 07:58 PM

Good OP. Especially regarding the defense.

I was holding out hope that Smith would continue to push the ball because of the Mahomes factor but that didn’t happen.

What pisses me off is Reid went away from misdirection. Now it’s just Squirmin Herman Mother****ing Sack of **** Edwards-esque draw plays to get rush yards (**** Squirmin Herman Mother****ing Sack of **** Edwards. Seriously. **** that ****in guy). Get back to the drawing board Reid!

**Buehler445** · 11-05-2017, 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC

Thankfully we attack the endzone while we are in the redzone.

Deberg_1990 · 11-05-2017, 08:02 PM

It wouldn't shock me if they make some changes during the bye, then rip off seven straight wins.

Of course, then we will get bounced in the playoffs after that.

**DaneMcCloud** · 11-05-2017, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deberg_1990

11-5. Win the division with a first round playoff exit

Same as it ever was.....

I think they'll end up 12-4 and win the division.

New England is taking a serious risk by trading Garapollo and signing Hoyer to back up Brady. Brady's 40 and if he were to miss significant time, they're done. If they have to go on the road, they're done.

Pittsburgh is a terrible matchup for the Chiefs because of Shuster, Brown, Bell and Ben. If the Chiefs sell out against the run, like they did today at Dallas, Shuster and Brown can make plays downfield, that is, if Ben is healthy.

I don't think their playoff hopes are any worse today than they were yesterday, as most people, myself included, saw this game as a loss before the season began.

The easy part of their schedule lies ahead and if they can just avoid the injury bug that's plagued them all year, while squeezing a little more out of Ragland, KPL, DJ and Murray, they might have a chance to win a few in the playoffs.

It's along season ahead.

Only158 · 11-05-2017, 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deberg_1990

It wouldn't shock me if they make some changes during the bye, then rip off seven straight wins

**DaneMcCloud** · 11-05-2017, 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deberg_1990

It wouldn't shock me if they make some changes during the bye, then rip off seven straight wins.

Of course, then we will get bounced in the playoffs after that.

I'm not sure what kind of "changes" they can make, nine games into the season, but it's clear that the offensive line was out of sync today, with drive killing penalties by LDT and Schwartz.

I don't get what they're doing with KPL and Ragland. Ragland makes plays, then gets replaced by KPL, who made a few plays as well. But if guys can't get into the rhythm of the game, it hurts the team.

I wouldn't be surprised if Hunt is playing hurt, as well as Schwartz. Schwartz was battling an ankle last year and his play against Denver in Denver was atrocious. He was way off today. And Hunt just hasn't been the same for a month, which is why we saw more West today (and should have seen even more from him).

Andy's got to figure this shit out.

Stryker · 11-05-2017, 08:07 PM

I believe the Chiefs will go 11-5 and win the AFC West. How far in the playoffs? Two and done. Fix the CB, DE, LB and o-line issues in the off season. Grab some good WR prospects and get ready for PMII Woot! 2018 or bust!

Coogs · 11-05-2017, 08:08 PM

We are actually 1 game better than I thought we would be at the BYE. I thought we would be 5-4 with losses to the Pats, Steelers, Raiders, and Cowboys. So we are ahead of schedule IMO.

Deberg_1990 · 11-05-2017, 08:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Only158

Well, they have had Lot of ups and downs during the Reid era.

0-5, then win 11 straight

9-0 the first year, then finished up and down.

It's just kinda the norm.

mnchiefsguy · 11-05-2017, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

I think they'll end up 12-4 and win the division.

New England is taking a serious risk by trading Garapollo and signing Hoyer to back up Brady. Brady's 40 and if he were to miss significant time, they're done. If they have to go on the road, they're done.

Pittsburgh is a terrible matchup for the Chiefs because of Shuster, Brown, Bell and Ben. If the Chiefs sell out against the run, like they did today at Dallas, Shuster and Brown can make plays downfield, that is, if Ben is healthy.

I don't think their playoff hopes are any worse today than they were yesterday, as most people, myself included, saw this game as a loss before the season began.

The easy part of their schedule lies ahead and if they can just avoid the injury bug that's plagued them all year, while squeezing a little more out of Ragland, KPL, DJ and Murray, they might have a chance to win a few in the playoffs.

It's along season ahead.

I want to believe this, I really do, but I have a tough time seeing this team winning six of the next seven games with how bad they are playing.

11-05-2017, 07:13 PM
'Hamas' Jenkins Now you've pissed me off! Join Date: Jan 2006 Casino cash: $8009572	This is what regression to the mean looks like Kareem Hunt wasn't going to keep breaking off 60-80 yard plays every week and the defense wasn't going to hold people out of the end-zone on almost every red zone trip despite getting gashed between the 20s. There is no correlation between a team's red zone rankings on a year-to-year basis. The Chiefs were extremely fortunate in the red zone early in the season, and they were incredibly lucky all of last year. Now that their luck is normalizing in those areas, they're giving up a lot more points, which is scaling to how talented the defense actually is. If you all are freaking out, I wouldn't. The AFC is bad. The Chiefs could easily make a run. They aren't nearly as good as they looked in the first month, but they probably aren't quite as bad as they've seemed the last few games. With that said, the Chiefs can also lose to anyone because they have a legitimately bad defense. Such is the modern NFL. Last edited by 'Hamas' Jenkins; 11-05-2017 at 07:19 PM..
Posts: 74,825

11-05-2017, 07:58 PM	#21
Buehler445 Supporter Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Scott City KS Casino cash: $2324734	Good OP. Especially regarding the defense. I was holding out hope that Smith would continue to push the ball because of the Mahomes factor but that didn’t happen. What pisses me off is Reid went away from misdirection. Now it’s just Squirmin Herman Mother**ing Sack of Edwards-esque draw plays to get rush yards ( Squirmin Herman Mothering Sack of Edwards. Seriously. that **in guy). Get back to the drawing board Reid!
Posts: 56,777

11-05-2017, 08:02 PM	#23
Deberg_1990 In Search of a Life Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: San Antonio Tx. Casino cash: $3914454	It wouldn't shock me if they make some changes during the bye, then rip off seven straight wins. Of course, then we will get bounced in the playoffs after that. __________________ Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning: Matt once made a very nice play in Seattle where he spun away from a pass rusher and hit Bowe off his back foot for a first down. One of the best plays Matt has ever made.
Posts: 66,914	1 0

11-05-2017, 08:07 PM	#27
Stryker In Mahomes I trust! Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Baton Rouge, LA Casino cash: $2534636	I believe the Chiefs will go 11-5 and win the AFC West. How far in the playoffs? Two and done. Fix the CB, DE, LB and o-line issues in the off season. Grab some good WR prospects and get ready for PMII Woot! 2018 or bust! __________________ Super Bowl LVIII Champions!
Posts: 5,956

11-05-2017, 08:08 PM	#28
Coogs In Search of a Life Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Northern Kansas Casino cash: $1614349	We are actually 1 game better than I thought we would be at the BYE. I thought we would be 5-4 with losses to the Pats, Steelers, Raiders, and Cowboys. So we are ahead of schedule IMO.
Posts: 21,609