Cardinals ***Official 2023 STL Cardinals Thread *** - Page 101

**BigRedChief** · 10:48 AM

2023 thread. Walker makes the roster. I'll update the rosters and opening day lineup when its official

2023 Opening Day Lineup

Spoiler!

2022 Opening Day roster.

Spoiler!

For the new Cardinal fans that joined the Planet since last year, here are some of the historical threads going back to 2006.

Spoiler!

Miles · 11-27-2023, 08:13 AM

For whatever it’s worth John Heyman is reporting the cards are expected to finalize a deal with Sonny Gray today. I haven’t seen anything on numbers yet but this offseason is feeling pretty on brand so far.

Jewish Rabbi · 11-27-2023, 08:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miles

For whatever it’s worth John Heyman is reporting the cards are expected to finalize a deal with Sonny Gray today. I haven’t seen anything on numbers yet but this offseason is feeling pretty on brand so far.

Explains the announcement last week that Mo is turning Ballpark Village into an assisted living facility

**BigRedChief** · 11-27-2023, 08:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miles

For whatever it’s worth John Heyman is reporting the cards are expected to finalize a deal with Sonny Gray today. I haven’t seen anything on numbers yet but this offseason is feeling pretty on brand so far.

Yeah typical move, overpay for an aging pitcher.

ChiefsCountry · 11-27-2023, 08:49 AM

3 for 75 for Gray. 25 million per season

Jewish Rabbi · 11-27-2023, 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

3 for 75 for Gray. 25 million per season

Marco Polo · 11-27-2023, 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

3 for 75 for Gray. 25 million per season

Why am I even pleasantly surprised that it’s only three years when I expected Mo to give even more. Ugh.

DJ's left nut · 11-27-2023, 09:00 AM

Eh, they kept it to 3 years at least. He should be a solid pitcher for about 425 innings over those three seasons and has a little genuine upside to be a fringe 1 or strong 2 for 500+ over that stretch.

Their youngest SP is 33 (Matz).

Eh, it could've been worse. But we'll see what Yamamoto goes for. If the AAV is close and the term is 6-8 years, that was the way to go. Then again, it's possible they just couldn't get him to come to the Midwest.

We'll see.

jd1020 · 11-27-2023, 09:03 AM

3 years isn't even that bad. I was thinking someone was going to give him 4-5. He was a 95 percentile pitcher. If he can stay healthy, probably a good chance the Cardinals come out ahead on the deal. I guess the main issue is that they've committed themselves to a retirement age rotation.

ChiefsCountry · 11-27-2023, 09:15 AM

I'm shocked they went free agent route. I figured they would trade for Glasnow.

Ocotillo · 11-27-2023, 09:18 AM

The Cardinals will lose their second-highest pick in the 2024 draft and $500K of international bonus pool space due to the signing of a free agent that received a qualifying offer.

DJ's left nut · 11-27-2023, 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jd1020

3 years isn't even that bad. I was thinking someone was going to give him 4-5. He was a 95 percentile pitcher. If he can stay healthy, probably a good chance the Cardinals come out ahead on the deal. I guess the main issue is that they've committed themselves to a retirement age rotation.

If he makes 80 starts over the life of that deal, they'll probably come out ahead or roughly break even.

That should probably net them about 9 WAR. I think to truly come out 'ahead' on the deal I'd want to see them get nearer to 11/12 WAR over that term but I don't think that's terribly likely. He'd likely need to get to 90 starts for that and I'm not seeing it.

Ultimately I think it's just a pretty high floor deal in that Gray gets hurt quite a bit but rarely catastrophically. It's just some 3-5 week absence that costs him 6-8 starts and otherwise he's gonna go throw 6+ innings/start and be 25-30% above average in those starts.

Not much ceiling there; certainly not as much as Yamamoto and likely not someone that's going to anchor a meaningful post-season run. I mean ultimately the stuff's just not there for that; he's a crafty righty who leans into his breaking stuff. As an undersized righty there are some breakdown concerns there but they're lessened by the fact that he's not really a max-effort, fireballer type.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 11-27-2023, 10:19 AM

That's a great singing if you need more pitching depth to get over the top and he can slot in as a #2. As your #1 coming off of a career year at 34, that's classic Mo. He's basically 3-3.5 WAR per year over the last six seasons.

Rams Fan · 11-27-2023, 10:24 AM

I like the three signings individually, but not collectively. Gibson and Gray are good together. They need to either bring someone else that slots at possibly a 1 or 2 (unlikely) or additional depth that can eat innings as needed (competition with Lynn).

ChiefsCountry · 11-27-2023, 10:38 AM

There is extreme value in having starting pitchers that can go 6 innings every 5 days.

DJ's left nut · 11-27-2023, 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

There is extreme value in having starting pitchers that can go 6 innings every 5 days.

What is key is that they didn't get murdered on term. That keeps the floor intact. You make that a 4 year deal and the downside increases substantially.

But you look at what the Phil's inked Nola for, they essentially got Nola for ages 31-37 at less than $25 million/season and we gave $25 million/season for 35-37 for Gray. So we effectively bought the last 3 seasons of the Nola deal without the remaining pitcher prime seasons at the front end of it at a higher AAV.

Then again, I don't think Nola's aging particularly well. Its possible that the next 3 years for Nola and the next 3 years for Gray are very similar with the back half of the Nola deal being a real problem. At least Gray's adjusted to his aging nicely and seems to be working with the age-related decline really nicely. Not everyone proves they can do that, so signing someone that has can really work out nicely. Especially when you're not as worried about innings limits at that point.

03-29-2023, 08:39 AM
BigRedChief Has a particular set of skills Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: On the water Casino cash: $3019627 VARSITY	*Official 2023 STL Cardinals Thread * 2023 thread. Walker makes the roster. I'll update the rosters and opening day lineup when its official 2023 Opening Day Lineup Spoiler! Donovan 2B Nootbar RF Goldschmidt 1B Arenado 3B Wilson Contreras C Tyler O'Neill LF Gorman DH Jordan Walker RF Tommy Edman SS 2022 Opening Day roster. Spoiler! The Cardinals anticipated 26-player Opening Day roster projects as follows, but will not become official until Thursday, March 30: PITCHERS (13): Jack Flaherty-RHP, Giovanny Gallegos-RHP, Ryan Helsley-RHP, Jordan Hicks-RHP, Steven Matz-LHP, Miles Mikolas-RHP, Jordan Montgomery-LHP, Packy Naughton-LHP, Andre Pallante-RHP, Chris Stratton-RHP, Zack Thompson-LHP, Drew VerHagen-RHP, and Jake Woodford-RHP; CATCHERS (2): Willson Contreras and Andrew Knizner; INFIELDERS (6): Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan, Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman and Taylor Motter; OUTFIELDERS (5): Alec Burleson, Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbaar, Tyler O’Neill and Jordan Walker; INJURED LIST (3): Paul DeJong-INF, Wilking Rodríguez-RHP, Adam Wainwright-RHP. For the new Cardinal fans that joined the Planet since last year, here are some of the historical threads going back to 2006. Spoiler! 2022 thread https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/show...8#post16877588 2021 Thread https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=337124 2020 Thread https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=329273 2019 Thread https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=320239 2018 Thread https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=312812 2012 Thread https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=254619 etc. All the way back to 2006 WS https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=312812 Last edited by BigRedChief; 03-30-2023 at 10:48 AM..
Posts: 79,113

11-27-2023, 08:13 AM	#1501
Miles MVP Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Dallas, TX Casino cash: $1542400	For whatever it’s worth John Heyman is reporting the cards are expected to finalize a deal with Sonny Gray today. I haven’t seen anything on numbers yet but this offseason is feeling pretty on brand so far.
Posts: 14,521

11-27-2023, 08:49 AM	#1504
ChiefsCountry The Insider Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Lake of the Ozarks Casino cash: $2198752	3 for 75 for Gray. 25 million per season
Posts: 49,690

11-27-2023, 09:00 AM	#1507
DJ's left nut Sauntering Vaguely Downwards Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Columbia, Mo Casino cash: $2879099	Eh, they kept it to 3 years at least. He should be a solid pitcher for about 425 innings over those three seasons and has a little genuine upside to be a fringe 1 or strong 2 for 500+ over that stretch. Their youngest SP is 33 (Matz). Eh, it could've been worse. But we'll see what Yamamoto goes for. If the AAV is close and the term is 6-8 years, that was the way to go. Then again, it's possible they just couldn't get him to come to the Midwest. We'll see. __________________ "If there's a god, he's laughing at us.....and our football team..." "When you look at something through rose colored glasses, all the red flags just look like flags."
Posts: 60,603

11-27-2023, 09:03 AM	#1508
jd1020 In Search of a Life Join Date: Nov 2010 Casino cash: $7722645	3 years isn't even that bad. I was thinking someone was going to give him 4-5. He was a 95 percentile pitcher. If he can stay healthy, probably a good chance the Cardinals come out ahead on the deal. I guess the main issue is that they've committed themselves to a retirement age rotation.
Posts: 24,331

11-27-2023, 09:15 AM	#1509
ChiefsCountry The Insider Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Lake of the Ozarks Casino cash: $2198752	I'm shocked they went free agent route. I figured they would trade for Glasnow.
Posts: 49,690

11-27-2023, 09:18 AM	#1510
Ocotillo Veteran Join Date: Sep 2019 Location: Red state Casino cash: $-20000	The Cardinals will lose their second-highest pick in the 2024 draft and $500K of international bonus pool space due to the signing of a free agent that received a qualifying offer.
Posts: 2,096

11-27-2023, 10:19 AM	#1512
'Hamas' Jenkins Now you've pissed me off! Join Date: Jan 2006 Casino cash: $7989572	That's a great singing if you need more pitching depth to get over the top and he can slot in as a #2. As your #1 coming off of a career year at 34, that's classic Mo. He's basically 3-3.5 WAR per year over the last six seasons. __________________ "When the Know-Nothings get control, it will read 'all men are created equal, except negroes, and foreigners, and Catholics.' When it comes to this I should prefer emigrating to some country where they make no pretense of loving liberty – to Russia, for instance, where despotism can be taken pure, and without the base alloy of hypocrisy.”--Abraham Lincoln
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11-27-2023, 10:24 AM	#1513
Rams Fan Greatest QB Duo of 2015 Join Date: Mar 2010 Casino cash: $2471133	I like the three signings individually, but not collectively. Gibson and Gray are good together. They need to either bring someone else that slots at possibly a 1 or 2 (unlikely) or additional depth that can eat innings as needed (competition with Lynn).
Posts: 17,088

11-27-2023, 10:38 AM	#1514
ChiefsCountry The Insider Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Lake of the Ozarks Casino cash: $2198752	There is extreme value in having starting pitchers that can go 6 innings every 5 days.
Posts: 49,690