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Old 12-18-2013, 05:21 PM   #1
jettio jettio is offline
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Even with injuries, I think the Texans beating the Broncos is less unlikely than this Texans team losing 13 straight football games.

It is unlikely, but you never know, Trindan Holiday can fumble a kick or two and with a couple of turnovers or injuries, Texans can beat them.
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Old 12-18-2013, 05:26 PM   #2
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There is no mention on the sports channels of what has to happen for the Chiefs to win the division and get the #1 seed. Yeah it's a long shot but you'd think they would cover all the scenarios. Guess they've .already got their brackets filled out.
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Old 12-18-2013, 06:09 PM   #3
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There is no mention on the sports channels of what has to happen for the Chiefs to win the division and get the #1 seed. Yeah it's a long shot but you'd think they would cover all the scenarios. Guess they've .already got their brackets filled out.
They do. One of the ESPN segments was "Buy or Sell" on sportscenter this morning. The anchor stated that the Chiefs were "locked into the 5 seed" for the playoffs, and the question was whether the Chiefs could make it to the Superbowl (everyone said sell.)
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Old 12-18-2013, 05:37 PM   #4
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Denver's facing Schaub and McGloin.
We're facing Luck and Rivers.

Denver's facing Wade Phillips and Dennis Allen.
We're facing Pagano and McCoy.

The Texans and Raiders have a combined record of 6-22 and a combined point differential of -210, with a combined 16 game losing streak.

The Colts and Chargers have a combined record of 16-12 and a combined point differential of +51 with a combined 3 game winning streak.

So yeah, probably not.
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Old 12-18-2013, 07:15 PM   #5
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I bet the Texans pull it off. Their offense will win the battle against Denver's small d. On defense, they have a bunch of pass rushers and nothing to lose by sending them all day.
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Old 12-18-2013, 09:43 PM   #6
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I bet the Texans pull it off. Their offense will win the battle against Denver's small d. On defense, they have a bunch of pass rushers and nothing to lose by sending them all day.
Agreed. Houston is gonna win this game. I already know it (psychic powers are great). The #1 seed is ours if we win out.
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Old 12-18-2013, 07:27 PM   #7
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http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

Odds are at 26.4% that the Chiefs win the division. It's not easy winning on the road in the NFL.
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Old 12-18-2013, 08:40 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by KC_Connection View Post
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

Odds are at 26.4% that the Chiefs win the division. It's not easy winning on the road in the NFL.
I was thinking around 25%, so that sounds good to me. I think Houston has the better chance to pull the upset.
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Old 12-18-2013, 09:22 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by KC_Connection View Post
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

Odds are at 26.4% that the Chiefs win the division. It's not easy winning on the road in the NFL.
That's wayy too high, IMO.

I wouldn't think that number would be higher than 5%. We have a tough road to 13-3 and Denver can put the team on cruise control and win out. The kicker here is Peyton and the records he is gonna set over the next 2 weeks. No way does he come out flat. I wouldn't be shocked if he has over 10 td passes combined. That and home field advantage are gonna be big motivational tools.
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Old 12-18-2013, 09:23 PM   #10
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That's wayy too high, IMO.

I wouldn't think that number would be higher than 5%. We have a tough road to 13-3 and Denver can put the team on cruise control and win out. The kicker here is Peyton and the records he is gonna set over the next 2 weeks. No way does he come out flat. I wouldn't be shocked if he has over 10 td passes combined. That and home field advantage are gonna be big motivational tools.
It's not as easy to beat bad teams in the NFL on the road as you think it is. Such losses happen all the time. I don't think it will happen this time (and the odds say it likely won't), but it isn't some unbelievable thing the Chiefs are asking for.
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Old 12-19-2013, 09:10 AM   #11
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That's wayy too high, IMO.

I wouldn't think that number would be higher than 5%. We have a tough road to 13-3 and Denver can put the team on cruise control and win out. The kicker here is Peyton and the records he is gonna set over the next 2 weeks. No way does he come out flat. I wouldn't be shocked if he has over 10 td passes combined. That and home field advantage are gonna be big motivational tools.
It is way too high. Not sure where those numbers are coming from, but I don't trust them.

It amazes me how we have a statistician here on board, and only about 5 of us use his website.

http://nfl-forecast.com/

and

http://files.nfl-forecast.com/

Regarding the division:

89.014% for Denver
10.986% for Kansas City

Playoff seeding for KC:

1st Seed: 9.71%
2nd Seed: 1.272%
5th Seed: 89.014%
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Old 12-18-2013, 10:44 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by KC_Connection View Post
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

Odds are at 26.4% that the Chiefs win the division. It's not easy winning on the road in the NFL.
I wouldn't have though it'd be nearly that high. IMO, the chances of Denver even losing a game in week 16/17 is lower than that.
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Old 12-19-2013, 03:59 AM   #13
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I wouldn't have though it'd be nearly that high. IMO, the chances of Denver even losing a game in week 16/17 is lower than that.
It would be one thing if we were talking about some flawless team, but Denver just had trouble scoring against and lost at home against one of the worst defenses in the league. They could certainly lose.
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Old 12-19-2013, 08:24 AM   #14
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It would be one thing if we were talking about some flawless team, but Denver just had trouble scoring against and lost at home against one of the worst defenses in the league. They could certainly lose.
Quite true. But the chargers are not a bad team. Houston and Oakland are a definite step down from SD, but yeah, anything can happen.
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Old 12-18-2013, 08:55 PM   #15
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I don't see them dropping 2 in a row, but as unlikely as a loss to the Raiders would be, it's a division game and Oakland had come up with a win in games against Denver in years they had no business even contemplating the idea that Denver could possibly lose that game.
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