Is 2016 a breaking point for this team?

[RealSNR]

I was messing around on Rotoworld looking at how long we've got guys under contract. In terms of losing our own players, the 2014 free agency season is basically finished. All we have left is Kendrick Lewis, and it's apparent that we're not bringing him back. So I wanted to see how we were doing for 2015. It's not that good, but it's known from the most recent press conference that Dorsey is currently talking through and working on extensions with Alex Smith and Justin Houston.

Let's take Direckshun's assumptions that he made in his most recent mock draft:

Originally Posted by Direckshun

1. The Chiefs extend QB Alex Smith 6 years, $90m (when you break the numbers down, it will actually break down to 4 years, $60m, with something like $35m guaranteed), and S Eric Berry 6 years, $45m ($23m guaranteed). They will extend Justin Houston at some point during the 2015 season.

2. The Chiefs let walk: WR Kyle Williams, S Kendrick Lewis

3. The Chiefs sign WR/KR Jacoby Ford (Raiders) to a 1 year, $1m deal.

These are the Chiefs who played snaps for the team last year who will become free agents in 2015:

Allen Bailey
Thomas Gafford
Junior Hemingway (Exclusive rights FA)
Rodney Hudson
Rishaw Johnson (RFA)
Josh Martin (Exclusive rights FA)
Dezman Moses (RFA)
Ron Parker
Anthony Sherman

That's nothing to shake a stick at, but this group also doesn't have anybody particularly pertinent on it who would require a lot of money. A guy like Anthony Sherman might ask for a contract more expensive than we're willing to offer, so I think he would walk. Rodney Hudson is supposedly going to be replaced by Eric Kush very soon, so I guess he walks as well. Nobody knows if Hemingway, Martin, and Moses will even be on the team next year. That basically leaves us with Bailey, Gafford, Johnson, and Parker. It would be great to keep any of those players, and they should all be pretty cheap with the possible exception of Bailey.

Direckshun's plan sets us up pretty well into 2015. We'd be spending barely any money to keep our own players. Really, the only guy I can see as a MUST keep is Gafford, and that should be a cheap deal.

Now what about 2016?

Jeff Allen
Donnie Avery
Tyler Bray (RFA)
Jamaal Charles
Chase Daniel
Mike DeVito
Cyrus Gray
Tamba Hali
Jaye Howard
AJ Jenkins
Derrick Johnson
Joe Mays
Sean McGrath
Dontari Poe
Sean Smith
Donald Stephenson
Rokevious Watkins
Frank Zombo

Ehhhhhhhhghggghhhhhh........

You can assume that Charles, DeVito, Hali, and DJ will be much older and feebler at this point, but they're still critical cogs to how this team currently runs. Yes, we'll (hopefully) be acquiring more playmakers through the draft, and yes, there will be some players currently on the team who break out into solid starting players and beyond. But that's still a lot of dudes. Even if you want to argue that current starters like Allen, Avery, Fasano, and Smith would hopefully be replaced by fresher and better players, that means we're still devoting a lot of resources to getting this team "right" instead of planning for the future.

We'll basically be depending on getting 3-4 starters per draft in 2014 and 2015. That's kind of a lot to expect.

I would hope that we could keep Charles around beyond 2016 if he still has gas left for not all that much money. Same goes for DJ. Hali may wind up being a cap casualty before then. We're looking at two starters on the offensive line (Stephenson and Allen) who will need new deals or replacements. Dontari Poe. ****. Dontari Poe. He's a big man, and he'll need a big deal. Daniel and Bray... I mean, who ****ing cares, right? But we still will likely need to spend draft stock on replacements in some way. We need as many draft picks as we can get these next two years. And I'm even looking at Mays, Jenkins, DeVito...

Basically, the stakes are pretty ****ing high by the time we get to 2016. If Dorsey does his homework these next two years, we'll be pretty okay, I think. If he doesn't...

Blow up the ship? Start again?

[BlackHelicopters]

Originally Posted by SNR

God, have you ever wondered why the **** Marvin Lewis still has a job as a head coach in this league?

Sometimes if I'm taking a really nasty poo, I think about Marvin Lewis and how he has somehow survived this long and become such a blatant exception to phrase "NFL stands for Not For Long." It makes no sense to me. And while I do some of my best thinking in the bathroom, even the 20-30 minute diarrhea sessions don't provide a sufficient enough cognitive boost for me to wrap my head around that one.

Next to Belichek, the longest tenured AFC coach?

[BullJunkandIron]

Is something supposed to happen at 20:16 hrs tonight I'm not aware of?

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by SNR

God, have you ever wondered why the **** Marvin Lewis still has a job as a head coach in this league?

Sometimes if I'm taking a really nasty poo, I think about Marvin Lewis and how he has somehow survived this long and become such a blatant exception to phrase "NFL stands for Not For Long." It makes no sense to me. And while I do some of my best thinking in the bathroom, even the 20-30 minute diarrhea sessions don't provide a sufficient enough cognitive boost for me to wrap my head around that one.

He's (more or less) hit on two QBs.

That'll save you more than anything.

I can't imagine Ryan can survive much longer. What's he going to say-- the next QB will workout?

[DeezNutz]

Am I missing something?

Those lists are largely a huge pile of shit when we're talking 2016. The team will extend Poe, and everyone else is expendable.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

Am I missing something?

Those lists are largely a huge pile of shit when we're talking 2016. The team will extend Poe, and everyone else is expendable.

Huge pile of shit or cap casualty, it's still nothing.

The point is that most of the entire list will need to be replaced.

Thus my question. Is that the time when we push the "reset" button?

[DeezNutz]

Originally Posted by SNR

Huge pile of shit or cap casualty, it's still nothing.

The point is that most of the entire list will need to be replaced.

Thus my question. Is that the time when we push the "reset" button?

Nah. Natural development of the roster. Teams with competent GMs should never have to "start over."

[The Franchise]

Jeff Allen
Donnie Avery
Tyler Bray (RFA)
Jamaal Charles
Chase Daniel
Mike DeVito
Cyrus Gray
Tamba Hali
Jaye Howard
AJ Jenkins
Derrick Johnson
Joe Mays
Sean McGrath
Dontari Poe
Sean Smith
Donald Stephenson
Rokevious Watkins
Frank Zombo

Players that are meh or easily replaceable - Allen, Avery, Bray, Daniel, Gray, Howard, Jenkins, Mays, McGrath, Watkins and Zombo.

Players that are average to good players - DeVito, Smith and Stephenson.

Players that they need to either re-sign or find replacements for in the next 2 seasons - Charles, Hali and Johnson.

Players that need new contracts before 2016 gets here - Poe.

[DeezNutz]

Exactly. If Dorsey is worth a shit, he's drafting guys this year who will be the key contributors in 2016. If he's Pioli, then we can hope only that he'll be fired.

[scho63]

We haven't even finished the 2014 free agency, begun the 2014 draft, or had one snap of the 2014 season and you are trying to analyze where we stand for 2016???

You are really f**** up and need to get a life.

Stop wasting your time and everyone else's on stupid threads. Why not analyze and predict the 2026 draft while you are at it???

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by scho63

We haven't even finished the 2014 free agency, begun the 2014 draft, or had one snap of the 2014 season and you are trying to analyze where we stand for 2016???

You are really f**** up and need to get a life.

Stop wasting your time and everyone else's on stupid threads. Why not analyze and predict the 2026 draft while you are at it???

The dumbest mother****er on this forum doesn't like my thread?

Woah! Thanks! That's quite a confidence boost!

[Simplicity]

Jacoby Ford?

Did I miss something or why is this a possibility?

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by scho63

Why not analyze and predict the 2026 draft while you are at it???

Keep ****ing doubting this Mighty Mite RB coming out of Nixa that I've heard of.

[kccrow]

Okay, I'll bite on this one...

Jeff Allen - I already believe he NEEDS to be replace ASAP.
Donnie Avery - Easily replaceable.
Tyler Bray (RFA) - Unless he shows something amazing by then, he's only a 3rd string UDFA QB...
Jamaal Charles - By 2016 Charles will be going on 30. We'll need a replacement.
Chase Daniel - A FA 2nd string QB, I'm not overly concerned.
Mike DeVito - Marginal starting 3-4DE, good run stopper. Always plenty of those out there, but he's a solid starter so I bolded him.
Cyrus Gray - Meh...
Tamba Hali - Will probably be a cap casualty sooner than that. The time to replace him in theory is this year, at least in a rotational development fashion.
Jaye Howard - Meh..
AJ Jenkins - We'll see if this even matters by then...
Derrick Johnson - He'll be 33 and might have enough in the tank to re-sign short term by then. Not overly concerned just yet, but the Chiefs have to develop depth anyhow...
Joe Mays - Will be looking for that final pay day. If he works out, it may not be worth it to re-sign him. We'll see, see DJ for the rest..
Sean McGrath - Good 3rd TE, but I'm not going to sweat that.
Dontari Poe - He's gonna get paid, prepare for that.
Sean Smith - I didn't like the signing to begin with. I still don't. Unless he's amazing this year, I could care less if he goes.
Donald Stephenson - If he continues his ascent, he'll be a must re-sign guy and will get a decent dime. I'd prepare to re-sign him.
Rokevious Watkins - Meh....dime a dozen below average backup guard...
Frank Zombo - Meh... dime a dozen situational player and special teamer.


Most of the guys on this list are replaceable pieces using late round picks and low-key free agent signings. I'm not overly concerned about keeping this ship afloat. I think there are a few guys that I bolded that you re-sign in 2016 and a few you start thinking about replacing in this year's draft or next. I'm a big believer in developing youth. I don't think you need 15 draft picks or anything crazy, but you have to draft smart and be selective in FA. Right now you have 9 starters on that list, of which 4 you could call above average or better.

[Discuss Thrower]

Whichever guys are on 810 Sports is burying the Chiefs and Dorsey already..

[Easy 6]

Unless we draft some real studs and shrewdly negotiate the free agent market between now and then... yes.

So many of our current core guys will be either over the hill or too expensive to keep by then... thats why I'm pretty disappointed in free agency right now, I thought we were clearly in WIN NOW mode.

Maybe not the sell your Grandmas soul version of it that Dinver is in, but atleast a strong, creative effort to add impact players, even if they werent top dog money grabbers.

Yes, this current group is quickly running out of time.