NFL Excuses Run Out After Ratings Declines Continue

[Eleazar]

NFL's Litany of Excuses Runs Out After Ratings Fall for Second Year

By Lucas Shaw
Bloomberg.com
November 2, 2017, 11:30 AM CDT



TV networks are running out of excuses for the dwindling popularity of the National Football League.

They blamed the election for ratings declines last year, and hurricanes for a soft week one in September. Protests during the national anthem, and President Donald Trump’s criticism of the league, have faded from the headlines.

Advertisers are starting to believe a different explanation: the viewers aren’t coming back. Audiences are down an average 7 percent from a year ago through the first eight weeks of the season, excluding last Monday. That’s on top of a decrease of about 8 percent last season that spurred numerous changes in the broadcasts, from shorter commercials to better matchups earlier in the year.

“There’s just not as many people watching TV the way they used to watch TV,” said Jeremy Carey, managing director of Optimum Sports, a sports marketing agency. “It’s going to be an issue for advertisers when they can’t reach a large-scale audience the way they have.”

With CBS Corp., 21st Century Fox Inc. and Walt Disney Co. set to report earnings in the next few days, analysts are bound to raise questions. These companies have used the popularity of the games to extract additional fees from cable operators, promote other shows on their networks and sell lots of commercials. Pro football games drew about $3.5 billion in ad spending last year, including the postseason, according to SMI Media Inc.

Media companies have spent billions of dollars on the right to air football games, which had been immune to the erosion of viewership for other TV programming. Audiences for TV networks have diminished for years as the growing popularity of online alternatives Netflix and YouTube and the availability of most shows on-demand have reduced the appeal of dramas and comedies. Live TV, like sports, was supposed to be immune, but that theory looks highly questionable now.

Ratings for the NFL suggest the same societal trends are now affecting the league, even if the declines aren’t as dramatic. The drop in game viewership ranges from 5 percent for NBC’s “Sunday Night Football” to 11 percent for the CBS Sunday package. “Monday Night Football,” on Disney’s ESPN, has attracted more fans this year than a year ago, but the numbers are still down from 2015.

Viewership of the four main broadcast networks fell 8.7 percent last year, and 12 percent among adults 18 to 49, an important demographic for advertisers.

CBS’s 11 percent slump for NFL games is the steepest of the networks. Its parent company, which reports earnings after the close Thursday, is more vulnerable than rivals to the trend because the vast majority of its earnings come from the broadcast network. The declines at CBS reinforce a complaint that has gotten louder and louder in recent weeks: The league got greedy in adding the Thursday night game on broadcast.

Reserving top games for Thursday night robbed other time periods of good match-ups. After a nosedive in ratings at “Monday Night Football” last season, the league has scheduled better games for that time period, further damaging Sunday afternoon.

“Ratings declines on both general entertainment and NFL programming could be the single biggest point of focus for investors this quarter, and we’re not sure what media companies can say about the health and tone of the ad market to assuage fears,” Steven Cahall, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a note last month.

Viewership is dropping fast among people under 54 -- a key demographic for advertisers -- and even faster among those 18 to 34. Audiences for games on CBS, NBC and Fox have slid at least 10 percent among that younger cohort.

Advertisers aren’t abandoning the NFL, one of the only places they can still reach more than 10 million people at once. But they are growing concerned. John Schnatter, who appears in TV spots on behalf of his Papa John’s Pizza International Inc., laid into the league on a conference call this week, blaming the ratings for his company’s slow revenue growth and calling for the league to put an end to player protests.

Networks and other advertisers identify a wide range of reasons for the NFL’s struggles. The league has overexposed itself by making highlights available on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and Snapchat. Identifiable stars like Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers have either retired or gotten hurt. The quality of play has deteriorated. Player protests and concussions have driven away some fans.

Some executives argue viewership of the league has still improved over the long term while dropping for every other show. Yet the amount of time people have spent watching football this season is at the lowest point since 2011, back when there were fewer televised games, according to Mike Mulvihill, Fox Sports’ head of research.

“The cumulative effect of everything happening in the world at large is having an impact on NFL viewership,” Mulvihill said. “ The league was defying the laws of gravity.”

[007]

Originally Posted by GloryDayz

I scored two tix to Sunday's Chiefs game for $30 each. The lower part of the upper deck, on the 50 yard line, so the view should be good. The parking pass was $25 from a FB friend. It'll be cold as a witch's tit, but we should have fun.

Plus, the Chiefs need me!

It's cute that you think the game this Sunday is that cold. Thats nothing.

[GloryDayz]

Originally Posted by 007

It's cute that you think the game this Sunday is that cold. Thats nothing.

Okay hero, I made my living in the arctic when I was young, and I say a "feels like" temp in the teens is cold. Now tell us all that's you don't.

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[chiefzilla1501]

-oversaturation including Europe games nobody wants
-overpriced tickets and parking
-absurdly bad TV deal that restricts access unless you own a dish, while other leagues are expanding local and streaming
-incompetent owners like Mike brown and Jim irsay who will never be replaced. Largely because revenue sharing allows incompetent owners to still profit handsomely
-disinterested owners with no fresh ideas on improving the game experience (terrible halftime shows, in game music, etc...)
-injuries have made several teams unwatchable
-relocation mania to an LA market that struggled big time with attendance with 2 teams
-over emphasis on penalizing defenses. And too many flags in general
-horrible marketing. Very few marketable superstars

The NFL was on the decline. The anthem reaction was the straw that broke the camels back. If the NFL was a watchable product, the reaction wouldn't be nearly as severe. In most of the above cases, the owners and Goodell chose profits over the fan experience.

[Reerun_KC]

The game is stale. Rehashing junk coaches. No new fresh forward thinking offenses.

It’s a lot of blah. Granted I’ve only watched the chiefs and maybe a small part of a handful of games. Just too boring with the same narratives playing out year after year.

[GloryDayz]

I wonder how Pats fans feel? At some point, to possibly add to why the NFL is in decline, is how people in places like KC, Detroit, and Cleveland project their team's lack of success in terms of the ultimate goal with being upset with , or disinterested in, the league? That may play off of a previous comment about ownership, but I'm sure Pat fans think highly of the league, and how the league has protected their star player's health and wins?

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[Best22]

Originally Posted by GloryDayz

I wonder how Pats fans feel? At some point, to possibly add to why the NFL is in decline, is how people in places like KC, Detroit, and Cleveland project their team's lack of success in terms of the ultimate goal with being upset with , or disinterested in, the league? That may play off of a previous comment about ownership, but I'm sure Pat fans think highly of the league, and how the league has protected their star player's health and wins?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

Pats fans hate Gooddell and the league because he suspended their quarterback. They openly mocked him during the Thursday night season opener

[cooper barrett]

Originally Posted by GloryDayz

I scored two tix to Sunday's Chiefs game for $30 each. The lower part of the upper deck, on the 50 yard line, so the view should be good. The parking pass was $25 from a FB friend. It'll be cold as a witch's tit, but we should have fun.

Plus, the Chiefs need me!

Some of my favorite games were sitting in 301 in the front rows after being stuck in seats (free but) by the tunnel for like forever.... You can see the game well and see the booths.

And if you think 28 is cold....

Spoiler!

[beach tribe]

Originally Posted by MichaelH

One thing they could do is to make the games more accessible to other viewing mediums like MLB does. As the article states, more people just aren't watching TV the way they used to.

Maybe another thing to do is get rid of the announcers. I find them mostly irritating and turn down the game and turn up the music.

I think people are sick of hearing about the Cowboys and all the ways their 7% chance to make the playoffs will unfold.

Seriously, though. People are sick of hearing the story lines about the media darlings and watching the same handful of teams have any shot a a ring.

95% Cowboys fans don't give a shit about football unless their team is championship caliber.

[FloridaMan88]

Not hard to figure out... oversaturation with games on Thursday, Saturday, and Monday, and too many bad teams.

[Why Not?]

Garbage quality of play. Every week you have maybe a couple of good games. Maybe. Games are over officiated and several major rules/interpretations are unclear to most of the players, let alone the fans. Several points others have made about stale coaches and players. Bad play calling that most fans could see backfiring(4th and 1, "let's go for it!" Runs up the middle for loss of 1).

However, I'm not sure how threatened the league really is. Guys like me are a part of the "problem". For all the reasons listed by me and everyone else, the league is offering a poor quality product . But I'll still watch every Sunday and I'll still buy Sunday Ticket(the years I don't get it free)because fantasy football and gambling on football is just to damn fun to give up!

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by Why Not?

But I'll still watch every Sunday and I'll still buy Sunday Ticket(the years I don't get it free)because fantasy football and gambling on football is just to damn fun to give up!

With legalized Sports Gambling coming down the pike, the NFL will be become more popular than ever.

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by BlackOp

No...the overt price-gouging is the main factor. Going to a game is a freaking hassle let alone costing $400+ for two people.

I had free tickets to the Eagles game...and was bored. I'm sure it was a lot more exciting before the internet and people had nothing else to do. Football is a better experience on TV...when recorded so you can FF through 1 1/2 hours of soul-sucking commercials.

NFL can blame the anthem...but the truth is it's not worth the money anymore. If you're into tailgating...then it becomes a social experience...like a Grateful Dead concert...but other than that I dont see the value.

Goodell tried to make this sport appear more important than it was...and banked on the fans being dumber than they thought.

Originally Posted by Strongside

All this makes the Gooddell extension even more baffling to me.

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

With legalized Sports Gambling coming down the pike, the NFL will be become more popular than ever.

^ Heavy dose of truth in the above posts.

And to take Dane's thought even further, with the popularity of the NFL facing it's first true stagnation point in years (since the strike?), you're going to see legalized sports betting nationwide way sooner rather than later.

[tmax63]

The NFL is/has gradually priced itself out of the market that made them. Not as many people out there who will drop $4-5 hundred for a few hours of entertainment. Once the base gets disenfranchised and moves on to something else the sponsors will leave as well. Won't happen in the next 5 years but I'd bet you see a major drawback from where they are today in 10 years.

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by tmax63

The NFL is/has gradually priced itself out of the market that made them. Not as many people out there who will drop $4-5 hundred for a few hours of entertainment. Once the base gets disenfranchised and moves on to something else the sponsors will leave as well. Won't happen in the next 5 years but I'd bet you see a major drawback from where they are today in 10 years.

I suppose in towns with perennial winners (the few that there are), the price is accepted because, you know, they're supporting perennial winners. For the other 85% of the league, it just isn't worth the price you pay. To apply it to Arrowhead for me personally, once they changed the rules of tailgating, they effectively killed my desire to drop big coin to go watch their product. The tailgate was just as much fun as the game for us since the product on the field when I had my tickets wasn't worth a shit.

They can keep it. I've been offered free tickets that are pretty damned good seats to tomorrow's game and I have zero desire to go out there, and this is a game where the Chiefs can clinch the AFC West for the second year in a row if they win (amazing to think that will be the first time in their history they'll pull that off if they do it). The investment is not worth the return for me anymore, especially considering I can go have fun at a number of sports bars and spend less money, or just stay at home with the big screen and Red Zone.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by tmax63

The NFL is/has gradually priced itself out of the market that made them.

False

Originally Posted by tmax63

Not as many people out there who will drop $4-5 hundred for a few hours of entertainment.

$400-500 per person? What?

Originally Posted by tmax63

Once the base gets disenfranchised and moves on to something else the sponsors will leave as well.

Nope. NFL is as popular as ever, it's just that the Nielsen ratings don't fully reflect its popularity due to other ways of watching games.

Again, Verizon just paid $2.5 Billion for 5 years for the rights to provide their customers with the option to watch any and every NFL game each week. Not only is that contradictory to your "opinion" and the "opinions" of the many uninformed people in this very thread, it also provides each team with an additional $15,625,00.00 million dollars in operating revenue, 48% of which will go towards increasing the salary cap ($7.5 million per team).

The sponsors aren't going anywhere.

Originally Posted by tmax63

Won't happen in the next 5 years but I'd bet you see a major drawback from where they are today in 10 years.

Complete and utter speculation based on anything other than facts.