Chiefs Over/Under 9 Wins - Page 4

frozenchief · 08-24-2017, 04:06 PM

Football Outsiders goes through the whole AFC West discussing whether they will exceed their projected Vegas lines for wins. FO is one of the more intelligent websites, using real data and not just gut instinct. Their take on KC is cautiously optimistic:

Bryan: Forget the win total; what's the over/under for when Patrick Mahomes replaces Alex Smith? It's an odd situation, where a playoff team with a perfectly cromulent starting quarterback goes out and uses a first-round pick to draft his successor rather than bolster something else for a playoff run.

Andrew: Surely they don't intend to actually replace Smith with Mahomes during the season? That's no way to get your team to a Super Bowl!

Bryan: Jay Cutler replaced Jake Plummer in 2006, which turned out to also not be a way to get your team to a Super Bowl. You're probably right that the Chiefs won't make a move unless something falls apart this season, but that's a big old ticking clock in the ear of Smith.

Andrew: The Plummer-Cutler thing really irritated me at the time (and not just me), so you just made me glad we're done writing about Denver. It's definitely ominous for Smith's future to have Mahomes not only there but apparently playing very exciting football during the preseason. The Chiefs were one of my favorite teams to watch last year, with quarterback the one damp spot on an otherwise fiery outfit.

Bryan: Yeah, so far, Mahomes doesn't appear to be the next Jim Druckenmiller or Todd Marinovich, which is good for Chiefs fans and bad for Alex. This would be the second time he has lost his job to a hot up-and-coming young draft pick, too. I've got a soft spot for the guy after watching him struggle for so long on some truly terrible 49ers teams. I remember the 49ers faithful chanting that they wanted David Carr -- David Carr!! -- to enter the game to improve the level of quarterback play. No one appreciates the subtle and dangerous art of the check down!

Andrew: To be fair to Smith, he has been exactly what he was signed to be for the Chiefs: a safe quarterback who can help his head coach stabilize the franchise, keep things around him on schedule, help the younger players develop, then hand over to his successor when he becomes the guy who's holding the offense back. Everything I wrote about Chase Daniel's play in FOA 2017 (still available!) applies to Smith, except Smith is a better version of that hyper-conservative, functional passer.

Bryan: And, of course, the best way to help your conservative, functional passer succeed for your team with Super Bowl aspirations is to cut his top receiver in the middle of the offseason for no adequately explained reason. So long, Jeremy Maclin!

Andrew: Hello Travis Kelce, who was the main beneficiary during Maclin's absence last season. Kelce, those running backs, and Tyreek Hill give a lot of quality, versatility, and unpredictability around Smith, but at some point he will probably need to pass to an actual wide receiver. Right now, that guy is Chris Conley. Or Albert Wilson. Or ... wait, that's it? They could hold their wide receiver meetings in a cupboard.

Bryan: I will say this, though: for as poor as their offense looks on paper, they haven't looked bad in preseason. Yes, it's just preseason, and there are not enough grains of salt in the world to take that with, but it looks … competent!

Andrew: I found the Chiefs great fun to watch last year. As long as you can forget that Tyreek Hill the football jersey is Tyreek Hill the person, he's electrifying. Kelce is one of the best receiving tight ends in the game, and one of the few tight ends who can line up in any position, run any route, and even take a wide receiver screen 80 yards for a touchdown. Andy Reid does a lot with formations and packages to confound a defense, which often results in beautiful mismatches like Albert Wilson against Telvin Smith in deep centerfield coverage. Their running game is likewise one of the most creative in the league, and they are one of the few teams with a legitimately decent offensive line.

Bryan: Their defense, similarly, is fun to watch, if lacking the oomph or long-term success of Denver. Eric Berry is an amazing player to watch, and grouped with Marcus Peters and Ron Parker, you have a very, very good secondary. There's no more Dontari Poe -- a victim of their tight salary cap situation -- but you have very useful players like Ramik Wilson and Chris Jones to shore up the middle. Oh, and then Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, which are great assets to have in a division with at least two below-average offensive lines. I mean, there's nothing there that matches up with the best in the league at any one position, but it's a group without weaknesses.
I do have a limb I want to go out on here. With an adequate, if not amazing offense, and a solid, if not spectacular, defense, we could see NFL history made. The record for field goals in a season is 44, set by the 2011 San Francisco 49ers. And you know who their quarterback was, right?

Andrew: Alex Smith, the last time he had a highly-drafted rookie quarterback on the bench behind him.

Bryan: So yeah. I'm picking the Chiefs to go 9-7 and win the division -- a tough division, but fair. Now, what's their over/under again … ah hell, another round number. So, I have to decide if this is more likely a 10-6 team or an 8-8 team. That's a huge gap! Down with integer lines! I know they went 12-4 last season, but they didn't have to play the NFC East. I'm going to say the odds that they sputter due to a lack of receiving weapons are greater than the odds that they repeat double-digit wins, so I'm taking the under. Nasty line, this one.

Andrew: This line screams "push" like an over-caffeinated midwife, but I'm taking the over. This is the most balanced team in the division, and good enough to take wins away from all of the other good teams around them. I think they're the best of the West, in the AFC at least.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/scr...est-overunders

**BigRedChief** · 08-25-2017, 06:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Yeah, we're that team on other team's schedules.

Yep,

we usually are. But, we wern't last year.

cooper barrett · 08-25-2017, 06:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beach tribe

No way we go under.

Like it or not, Alex is going to play his ass off.
I foresee the return of Alex "crazy legs" Smith.

10 wins maybe 11. Bounced in the divisional round.

Alex traded for a 2nd a 3rd and so begins a decade of dynasty with "Down Pat".

I am going to agree with you. Wins Playoff. Smith bounced. Crazy legs,
Maybe

Do you think we can get a bye in the playoffs as I think that's going to be imperative. if we are going to get past the divisional playoff wall that we seem to get past. (Even Joe Montana couldn't get us there) We have to get a season where we compete with the Squeelers and the Patsys in the w\l column and lock down a bye.

Edit: I should have said Joe Montana was that last to get us there in the '93 season. The time before that was '69 when we won the SB. I must have been thinking about having a playoff bye week which we have never had. I stand corrected.
Thank you jj.chiefsfan

NATHAN JAHNKE - PFF- JUN 20, 2017 Has the Chargers and the Raiders ranked above us with a big slam on losing Maclin. Ya I don't know who he is either

RunKC · 08-25-2017, 06:52 AM

Barring injury we should be 12-4, but I think 11-5 is more realistic.

**jjchieffan** · 08-25-2017, 06:55 AM

LOL at Clay trolling this thread because of his blind Smith hate. This team is easily a 10+ win team this year. That's a bet that you can put the mortgage payment on. Anyone who takes the under is dumber than KnowShit.

**jjchieffan** · 08-25-2017, 07:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cooper barrett

I am going to agree with you. Wins Playoff. Smith bounced. Crazy legs,
Maybe

Do you think we can get a bye in the playoffs as I think that's going to be imperative. if we are going to get past the divisional playoff wall that we seem to get past. (Even Joe Montana couldn't get us there) We have to get a season where we compete with the Squeelers and the Patsys in the w\l column and lock down a bye.

NATHAN JAHNKE - PFF- JUN 20, 2017 Has the Chargers and the Raiders ranked above us with a big slam on losing Maclin. Ya I don't know who he is either

Hate to break it to you dude, but Montana did actually get us past the divisional round. He led us to victory against the superbowl favorite Houston Oilers and would have taken us to the Superbowl had he not gotten injured at Buffalo.

cooper barrett · 08-25-2017, 07:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjchieffan

Hate to break it to you dude, but Montana did actually get us past the divisional round. He led us to victory against the superbowl favorite Houston Oilers and would have taken us to the Superbowl had he not gotten injured at Buffalo.

I knew that, I was at that game in Buffalo. Brain fart I guess. I will correct.

Montana and the Chiefs looked terrible and Montana limped into the 2nd half and was taken out shortly after.

**Rausch** · 08-25-2017, 07:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC

Barring injury we should be 12-4, but I think 11-5 is more realistic.

I would say 11-5 as well.

No way in hell 9-7 wins this division. Whoever takes the west will have 11 or more wins...

**Rausch** · 08-25-2017, 07:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjchieffan

LOL at Clay trolling this thread because of his blind Smith hate. This team is easily a 10+ win team this year. That's a bet that you can put the mortgage payment on. Anyone who takes the under is dumber than KnowShit.

Don't forget we should get two easy wins with Buffalo (gutted) and the Jets (completely gutted.) While the Dolphins won't be a blow out it should also be a win.

I can't see us doing worse than 4-2 in the division. That brings us to 6 wins.

If we only go .500 in the other 10 games that's 11 wins...

**BigRedChief** · 08-25-2017, 07:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjchieffan

would have taken us to the Superbowl had he not gotten injured at Buffalo.

I'll be forever convinced that if Joe doesn't go down in Buffalo, we win the Super Bowl that year.

**Rausch** · 08-25-2017, 07:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I'll be forever convinced that if Joe doesn't go down in Buffalo, we win the Super Bowl that year.

Yup.

We were down but we were down the week before @ Houston and most thought that was the team to beat that year...

cooper barrett · 08-25-2017, 08:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I'll be forever convinced that if Joe doesn't go down in Buffalo, we win the Super Bowl that year.

It wasn't looking good in Buffalo before Joe was taken out:

Quarter Tm Detail KAN BUF
1 Bills Thurman Thomas 12 yard rush (Steve Christie kick) 0 7
Chiefs Nick Lowery 31 yard field goal 3 7
Chiefs Nick Lowery 31 yard field goal 6 7
2 Bills Thurman Thomas 3 yard rush (Steve Christie kick) 6 14
Bills Steve Christie 23 yard field goal 6 17
Bills Steve Christie 25 yard field goal 6 20
3 Chiefs Marcus Allen 1 yard rush (Nick Lowery kick) 13 20
4 Bills Steve Christie 18 yard field goal 13 23
Bills Thurman Thomas 3 yard rush (Steve Christie kick) 13 30

Player Tm Cmp Att Yds TD Int Sk Yds Lng Rate
Dave Krieg KAN 16 29 198 0 1 2 20 27 62.1
Joe Montana KAN 9 23 125 0 1 2 17 31 39.2

========== KC ===== BUF
First Downs 22 === 30
Rush-Yds-TDs 21-52-1 === 46-229- 3
Cmp-Att-Yd-TD-INT 25-52-323-0-2 === 17-27-160-0-0
Sacked-Yards 4-37 === 0-0
Net Pass Yards 286 === 160
Total Yards 338 === 389
Fumbles-Lost 1-0 === 1-1
Turnovers 2 === 1
Penalties-Yards 6-29 === 2-10
Third Down Conv. 7-17 === 5-12
Fourth Down Conv. 1-1 === 0-0
Time of Possession 29:20 === 30:40

**Ming the Merciless** · 08-25-2017, 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mdchiefsfan

In all honesty, I think 10-6 is about as marginal as you can get. I could see 11 wins, but I could see 9 just as easily.

I'm choosing the over!!

I agree with all of this.

Forced, I would choose the over...foe sure. But people talking about putting the 'mortgage on this and it being an easy gimme....11-14 wins....I think they're being a little bit of homers.

I do not see it...we played over our heads last season IMO...i think we win a little less this season. 9-10 wins...wc game....Raiders win division.

I'll be happy if the raiders aren't good but I'm afraid of what they're doing over there

O.city · 08-25-2017, 08:49 AM

The chiefs have the best coaching staff in the division. Top to bottom. If they don't get blasted with injuries, they'll be good

ROYC75 · 08-25-2017, 08:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch

I would say 11-5 as well.

No way in hell 9-7 wins this division. Whoever takes the west will have 11 or more wins...

Me thinks 11-5 is the ticket too.

**Shaid** · 08-25-2017, 09:16 AM

11-5 seems about right. Win division, 3rd in standings just missing out on the bye. If we didn't have to play NE on Opening night I'd feel a bit better about it but that's as close to a guaranteed L as you can get. I hope the team goes in ready to fight and knocks them on their asses.

08-24-2017, 04:06 PM
frozenchief Veteran Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: Alaska Casino cash: $1651379	Over/Under 9 Wins Football Outsiders goes through the whole AFC West discussing whether they will exceed their projected Vegas lines for wins. FO is one of the more intelligent websites, using real data and not just gut instinct. Their take on KC is cautiously optimistic: Bryan: Forget the win total; what's the over/under for when Patrick Mahomes replaces Alex Smith? It's an odd situation, where a playoff team with a perfectly cromulent starting quarterback goes out and uses a first-round pick to draft his successor rather than bolster something else for a playoff run. Andrew: Surely they don't intend to actually replace Smith with Mahomes during the season? That's no way to get your team to a Super Bowl! Bryan: Jay Cutler replaced Jake Plummer in 2006, which turned out to also not be a way to get your team to a Super Bowl. You're probably right that the Chiefs won't make a move unless something falls apart this season, but that's a big old ticking clock in the ear of Smith. Andrew: The Plummer-Cutler thing really irritated me at the time (and not just me), so you just made me glad we're done writing about Denver. It's definitely ominous for Smith's future to have Mahomes not only there but apparently playing very exciting football during the preseason. The Chiefs were one of my favorite teams to watch last year, with quarterback the one damp spot on an otherwise fiery outfit. Bryan: Yeah, so far, Mahomes doesn't appear to be the next Jim Druckenmiller or Todd Marinovich, which is good for Chiefs fans and bad for Alex. This would be the second time he has lost his job to a hot up-and-coming young draft pick, too. I've got a soft spot for the guy after watching him struggle for so long on some truly terrible 49ers teams. I remember the 49ers faithful chanting that they wanted David Carr -- David Carr!! -- to enter the game to improve the level of quarterback play. No one appreciates the subtle and dangerous art of the check down! Andrew: To be fair to Smith, he has been exactly what he was signed to be for the Chiefs: a safe quarterback who can help his head coach stabilize the franchise, keep things around him on schedule, help the younger players develop, then hand over to his successor when he becomes the guy who's holding the offense back. Everything I wrote about Chase Daniel's play in FOA 2017 (still available!) applies to Smith, except Smith is a better version of that hyper-conservative, functional passer. Bryan: And, of course, the best way to help your conservative, functional passer succeed for your team with Super Bowl aspirations is to cut his top receiver in the middle of the offseason for no adequately explained reason. So long, Jeremy Maclin! Andrew: Hello Travis Kelce, who was the main beneficiary during Maclin's absence last season. Kelce, those running backs, and Tyreek Hill give a lot of quality, versatility, and unpredictability around Smith, but at some point he will probably need to pass to an actual wide receiver. Right now, that guy is Chris Conley. Or Albert Wilson. Or ... wait, that's it? They could hold their wide receiver meetings in a cupboard. Bryan: I will say this, though: for as poor as their offense looks on paper, they haven't looked bad in preseason. Yes, it's just preseason, and there are not enough grains of salt in the world to take that with, but it looks … competent! Andrew: I found the Chiefs great fun to watch last year. As long as you can forget that Tyreek Hill the football jersey is Tyreek Hill the person, he's electrifying. Kelce is one of the best receiving tight ends in the game, and one of the few tight ends who can line up in any position, run any route, and even take a wide receiver screen 80 yards for a touchdown. Andy Reid does a lot with formations and packages to confound a defense, which often results in beautiful mismatches like Albert Wilson against Telvin Smith in deep centerfield coverage. Their running game is likewise one of the most creative in the league, and they are one of the few teams with a legitimately decent offensive line. Bryan: Their defense, similarly, is fun to watch, if lacking the oomph or long-term success of Denver. Eric Berry is an amazing player to watch, and grouped with Marcus Peters and Ron Parker, you have a very, very good secondary. There's no more Dontari Poe -- a victim of their tight salary cap situation -- but you have very useful players like Ramik Wilson and Chris Jones to shore up the middle. Oh, and then Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, which are great assets to have in a division with at least two below-average offensive lines. I mean, there's nothing there that matches up with the best in the league at any one position, but it's a group without weaknesses. I do have a limb I want to go out on here. With an adequate, if not amazing offense, and a solid, if not spectacular, defense, we could see NFL history made. The record for field goals in a season is 44, set by the 2011 San Francisco 49ers. And you know who their quarterback was, right? Andrew: Alex Smith, the last time he had a highly-drafted rookie quarterback on the bench behind him. Bryan: So yeah. I'm picking the Chiefs to go 9-7 and win the division -- a tough division, but fair. Now, what's their over/under again … ah hell, another round number. So, I have to decide if this is more likely a 10-6 team or an 8-8 team. That's a huge gap! Down with integer lines! I know they went 12-4 last season, but they didn't have to play the NFC East. I'm going to say the odds that they sputter due to a lack of receiving weapons are greater than the odds that they repeat double-digit wins, so I'm taking the under. Nasty line, this one. Andrew: This line screams "push" like an over-caffeinated midwife, but I'm taking the over. This is the most balanced team in the division, and good enough to take wins away from all of the other good teams around them. I think they're the best of the West, in the AFC at least. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/scr...est-overunders
Posts: 3,895

08-25-2017, 06:52 AM	#48
RunKC Andy Reid Supporter Join Date: Apr 2012 Casino cash: $2279611	Barring injury we should be 12-4, but I think 11-5 is more realistic. __________________ Mike Greenberg@Espngreeny I can’t fathom what it must be like to be a fan of the #Chiefs. Adopt a Chief: Noah Gray
Posts: 45,959

08-25-2017, 06:55 AM	#49
jjchieffan Supporter Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Highlandville, MO Casino cash: $3432247	LOL at Clay trolling this thread because of his blind Smith hate. This team is easily a 10+ win team this year. That's a bet that you can put the mortgage payment on. Anyone who takes the under is dumber than KnowShit. __________________ Genesis 1:1 In the beginning, God created the Heavens and the Earth. Following the historical accounts and the genealogy from that point on, the age of the Earth is approximately 6000-7000 years old. The Big Bullshit Theory is a lie. It and the evolution theory go against real science. Satan has used our public school system to brainwash everyone into believing these lies. Be not decieved.
Posts: 12,600

08-25-2017, 08:49 AM	#58
O.city In Search of a Life Join Date: Jul 2009 Casino cash: $2774064	The chiefs have the best coaching staff in the division. Top to bottom. If they don't get blasted with injuries, they'll be good
Posts: 81,220

08-25-2017, 09:16 AM	#60
Shaid Supporter Join Date: Nov 2006 Casino cash: $3125783	11-5 seems about right. Win division, 3rd in standings just missing out on the bye. If we didn't have to play NE on Opening night I'd feel a bit better about it but that's as close to a guaranteed L as you can get. I hope the team goes in ready to fight and knocks them on their asses. __________________
Posts: 5,689