Rotoworld Mock

[Mr. Laz]

Draft is here folks, time to mock this place up!

Mock Draft V
Monday, April 17, 2017

This mock draft is my best guess of what will happen. I know there are many who want to trade down or robotically recite the term “best player available.” Need is always factored in and one year away needs should be considered.

For the trades featured below, the terms are listed after the initial team and are based on previous values from past drafts.

1. Cleveland Browns - EDGE Myles Garrett, Texas A&M - Viewed as the draft’s top prospect. He is the unique prospect in this draft. Reportedly dealt with a high ankle injury this season. NFL teams have to rush the passer, and drafting players like Emmanuel Ogbah and Carl Nassib doesn’t prevent you from adding Garrett. I know Adam Schefter mentioned the team is “split” on this pick, but you cannot pass on Garrett. Trading up from 12 seems far more likely… if the team loves a quarterback.

2. San Francisco 49ers - EDGE/DL Solomon Thomas, Stanford - Thomas is a really, really, really good football player. He can rush from the edge or possibly work inside. The new 49ers’ coaching staff and the front office has no connection to Arik Armstead nor DeForest Buckner. Harsh, but true. Without a clear No. 2 prospect in this class, add the pass rusher with upside.

3. Chicago Bears - EDGE/DL Jonathan Allen, Alabama - This is a difficult selection. It could obviously be a quarterback or cornerback, or even a left tackle, but Allen might be viewed as a safe selection who offers disruption from a variety of alignments. Long term shoulder questions have not been mentioned to me. The Bears need to continue to get younger up front.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars - RB Leonard Fournette, LSU - The Jaguars took care of so many needs in free agency. Perhaps they want to add a rangy free safety, or another offensive lineman, or a tight end, but signs and actions point to a powerful running back who can help build the identity of the offense. I’ve heard that teams understand a running scheme must be built around Fournette’s strengths, but many are open to it.

5. Buffalo Bills (TRADE with TEN) - QB Mitchell Trubisky, UNC - Let’s talk through this. A billionaire businessman does not spend his weekends or free time traveling to college campuses to meet with 20 and 21 year olds for fun. This is for business and goes beyond being thorough. The Bills are taking the blueprint the Eagles laid out last year when trading up for a quarterback.

Trade terms: Swapping 2017 first round picks plus the Bills give a 2018 second round pick and a 2017 third round pick (75) and the Titans add a fifth round pick (164). Buffalo only has six picks in the 2017 NFL Draft.

6. New York Jets - CB Gareon Conley, Ohio State - I know many expect Marshon Lattimore to be the first corner, but a number of NFL people are worried about his history of hamstring injuries. Enter Conley, who is an outstanding prospect. He shines on the left, right and in the slot. Physical, ball skills, etc. We can look back in three years and view Conley as the best corner in this class.

7. Los Angeles Chargers - FS Malik Hooker, Ohio State - Some might render football down to turnovers and big plays. Hooker can create big plays and turnovers thanks to his extreme range from his safety spot. A rangy free safety can totally change the success of Gus Bradley’s defense. This is one of the best prospect to team fits in the draft.

8. Carolina Panthers - RB Christian McCaffrey, Stanford - Panthers coach Ron Rivera used the term “evolve” multiple times after the Panthers season when speaking about offensive changes. We have no idea what that means since the team’s offense has changed very little this offseason. Adding McCaffrey would define that term. The more you watch McCaffrey, the more you realize he can be a primary piece of an NFL running and passing game.

9. Cincinnati Bengals - EDGE Derek Barnett, Tennessee - A receiver is definitely in play. Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap are getting older and more expensive, and the team has failed to find long-term solutions at either spot. Barnett posted a ton of production at the collegiate level and wins with bend and a strong motor.

10. Tennessee Titans (TRADE with BUF) - WR Mike Williams, Clemson - The primary mission of the Titans draft should be to surround Marcus Mariota with talent. Corey Davis’ draft process has been quiet after minor ankle surgery. John Ross has a long history of knee injuries. Enter Williams, who is outstanding when creating a positional advantage and wins downfield thanks to his contested catch ability.

11. New Orleans Saints - CB Marshon Lattimore, Ohio State - The Malcolm Butler deal will likely get done before the season. Even if it does, the trio of Butler, Breaux and Lattimore would be great,

12. Cleveland Browns (via PHI) - TE O.J. Howard, Alabama - The Browns staff coached Howard at the Senior Bowl and deployed more 12 personnel groupings in that week than I’ve seen before. I know many peg a quarterback to this slot. The team could obviously move up for one, or take the multiple passer approach and wait for more value. Potentially.

13. Arizona Cardinals - QB Deshaun Watson, Clemson - Call this selection a hunch. I know Bruce Arians’ infatuation with big armed quarterbacks is often cited. However, we do not know how long Arians will coach for and Steve Keim needs to plan for the future.

14. Philadelphia Eagles (via MIN) - EDGE Charles Harris, Missouri - The Eagles could absolutely take a similar approach to the Panthers last season in terms of multiple corners after round one. Harris will be a top 15 selection and greatly improved his athletic testing at the school’s pro day.

15. Indianapolis Colts - S Jamal Adams, LSU - Chris Ballard could see his next Eric Berry in Adams. Adams dominates edge runs, screen passes, and short completions.

16. Baltimore Ravens - LB Reuben Foster, Alabama - I know the team likely moves Kamalei Correa to inside linebacker, but with the top edge rushers off the board and a number of possible corner targets injury, the Ravens could look at receiver or an inside linebacker from a school Ozzie Newsome is very comfortable with.

17. Washington Redskins - C Forrest Lamp, Western Kentucky - Trying to predict a pick for a team without a general manager is fun. Ryan Kelly was the likely target last year, so the team (and previous GM’s grades) might indicate the top talent at the position being the pick. Lamp will be viewed as a center or guard in the NFL.

18. Tennessee Titans - CB Kevin King, Washington - Jon Robinson worked with Bill Belichick. Robinson signed former Patriot Logan Ryan to a large contract. The Patriots value 3-cone results (Ryan ran a 6.69). Kevin King’s 6.56 3-cone is an outstanding time. In fact, he is the most athletic corner in this draft. We could look back on this class in five years and view King as the class’ top corner.

19. Tampa Bay Bucs - TE David Njoku, Miami - I know the Bucs have Cameron Brate. He is absolutely a starting caliber talent. But inject some unreal upside and athleticism in Njoku, and the Bucs passing offense gets a lot scarier. Luke Stocker and Brandon Myers combined for more snaps than Brate played.

20. Denver Broncos - T Garett Bolles, Utah - I have pushed for Bolles to be drafted earlier than this… I just can’t find a fit. Bolles has left tackle feet and an aggressive, finishers mentality in the running game. He’d be a perfect fit for the Broncos.

21. Detroit Lions - LB Haason Reddick, Temple - Reddick could absolutely be drafted before this, even as the first off-ball linebacker off the board. Why? No one has improved their evaluation more during the process, and Reddick also offers pass rushing upside.

22. Kansas City Chiefs (TRADE with MIA) - QB Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech - Alex Smith is 32 years old and the Chiefs would save $17 million of his $20 million salary if he is not on the roster in 2018. All the buzz points to Mahomes landing in the first round. Personally, I don’t view him in that territory as there is no easy comparison of success in the NFL. Perhaps he creates a new mold. Andy Reid and company added Kevin Kolb in round two, then Michael Vick two years later, when Donovan McNabb was around Smith’s current age.

Trade terms: The Chiefs deal a 3rd round pick, No. 91, to exchange first round picks.

23. New York Giants - OL Ryan Ramczyk, Wisconsin - This could be one of a number of offensive linemen… Ramczyk, Garett Bolles, Cam Robinson. Ereck Flowers was not and is not the answer at left tackle. Adding skill position players only goes so far when the offensive line is a weakness.

24. Oakland Raiders - LB Jarrad Davis, Florida - The biggest weakness on the Raiders is the linebacker spot, as the team cycled through player after player in an attempt to make something work. Davis is athletic and vicious at the point of attack. He might remind some of Deion Jones.

25. Houston Texans - T Cam Robinson, Alabama - The Texans have a massive need at right tackle with Derek Newton’s late-season injury. I think it is very telling that Mike Mayock, a man who has spent the last month on the pro day circuit with NFL staffers, now ranks Robinson as his top tackle.

26. Seattle Seahawks - EDGE/LB Tyus Bowser, Houston - Bowser’s lack of pass rush snaps might limit his true EDGE evaluation. He tested in the 95th percentile and would help in a variety of ways. He could line up as a SAM, rush the passer or work off the ball since K.J. Wright is not getting any cheaper.

27. Miami Dolphins (TRADE with KC) - EDGE Jordan Willis, Kansas State - The Dolphins pick up an extra third-round pick in this deal while still getting the pass rusher they want. Willis is a straight-line rusher who is an athletic freak.

28. Dallas Cowboys - S Obi Melifonwu, UConn - Another hunch. The Cowboys must replace multiple starters in the secondary, and pair Obi with fellow UConn athletic phenom Byron Jones would give Dallas plenty of flexibility in the second half.

29. Green Bay Packers - CB Tre’Davious White, LSU - If the Cowboys went with a corner, White would be a likely pick. However, in this scenario, White passes the thresholds Ted Thompson uses at the position. The Packers could also be a prime trade out target.

30. Pittsburgh Steelers - WR Corey Davis, Western Michigan - The Steelers will add a corner and a pass catcher early in the draft. Book it. Davis is the top receiver in this class. He can win in contested situations due to his natural size but shines creating separation and dominating after the catch.

31. Atlanta Falcons - EDGE T.J. Watt, Wisconsin - I flipped between Watt, Derek Rivers and Taylor Moton. Watt is an insane athlete with a growing game and would be able to play a variety of spots for the Falcons.

32. Cleveland Browns (Trade with NO) - QB Davis Webb, Cal - The Browns get their quarterback for very little extra. Webb has 26 starts to his name and even more games played. The buzz is real from the NFL, but this late of a selection would allow the Browns to continue to throw darts at the position if they so choose, in 2017 or beyond.

Trade terms: Much like the Vikings trade up for Teddy Bridgewater a few years ago, the Browns trade pick No. 33 and a fourth round pick (108) to the Saints.

[TLO]

And for the record I hope we draft Mahomes.

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by Big Smoke

ChiefsPlanet is going to crash so hard when we take Mixon. The meltdown will be all-time

We aren't taking Mixon in rd 1.
If we take Mixon in rd 2, it will be a mixed bag of feelings.
If we take Mixon in rd 3, people will mostly be happy as hell.
I seriously doubt Mixon will last beyond rd 3.

I don't see how Mixon will crash CPlanet.

[New World Order]

Originally Posted by Mr. Laz

We aren't taking Mixon in rd 1.
If we take Mixon in rd 2, it will be a mixed bag of feelings.
If we take Mixon in rd 3, people will mostly be happy as hell.
I seriously doubt Mixon will last beyond rd 3.

I don't see how Mixon will crash CPlanet.

If they don't take a qb in round 1, I think it's pretty likely Ass is here after 17.

If they do, Alex is gone after this season.

Meltdownville is very possible

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by New World Order

If they don't take a qb in round 1, I think it's pretty likely Ass is here after 17.

If they do, Alex is gone after this season.

Meltdownville is very possible

What does that have to do with Mixon?

[Steron]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The hell it can.

A rank and file QB costs $17 million. If you get an average QB with a 1st round pick, you're potentially $50+ million ahead on the cap. That same RB costs dick.

At pick 1.27, if we stay there, the player is going to cost about 9 million with 5 million bonus? 4 years with a 5th year option. Alex Smith is a rank and file QB. Personally I don't see any of the current crop being anything more and I don't see QB as a position of need. Mixon OTOH, I feel like will be a top 3 RB. Dynamic and a game changer.

I completely follow what you're saying regarding the monetary side. That 1.27 QB, if they pan out, over the the first 4 years is a tremendous savings.

[ChiefAshhole1056]

Saw a tweet stating how Arizona is a perfect place for a rookie QB because Palmer usually sits out Wednesday practices anyways and the rookie could get first team reps those days to get him some experience. I dont think Watson is a fit for Arians offense because of his preference for bigger arms. TRADE UP TO 12 DORSEY!!

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by ChiefAshhole1056

Saw a tweet stating how Arizona is a perfect place for a rookie QB because Palmer usually sits out Wednesday practices anyways and the rookie could get first team reps those days to get him some experience. I dont think Watson is a fit for Arians offense because of his preference for bigger arms. TRADE UP TO 12 DORSEY!!

They'll draft Corey Davis round 1 and Davis Webb round 2.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Steron

At pick 1.27, if we stay there, the player is going to cost about 9 million with 5 million bonus? 4 years with a 5th year option. Alex Smith is a rank and file QB. Personally I don't see any of the current crop being anything more and I don't see QB as a position of need. Mixon OTOH, I feel like will be a top 3 RB. Dynamic and a game changer.

I completely follow what you're saying regarding the monetary side. That 1.27 QB, if they pan out, over the the first 4 years is a tremendous savings.

Probably around $10 million total value w/ a $6 million signing bonus. 5th year option would probably be in the $14 million range by then.

So 5 years, $24 million, give or take a bit. That's 5 years of quarterback for 1.5 years worth of salary. And when you figure backups are making $4 million or so in the open market these days, you even get some solid value in his year or two on the bench.

So let's say he rides pine for 2 years (which would be a pretty shitty scenario, but let's project it anyway). If he gives you 2 years as a backup and 3 years as even an average starter (which will probably cost about $19 million on the market over those 3 seasons). You're talking about roughly $64 million for 2 years of backup play and 3 years for a starter.

That's $40 million over 5; a pretty huge advantage. And if we get 4 years of adequate play as a starter instead of 3, it jumps up to $55 million. Anything better than adequate could start pushing that to $60-$70 million.

You might be able to approach that kind of cap advantage with a pass rusher or maybe a CB provided that said pass rusher or CB starts all 5 years and plays at a high level.

Mixon won't be a game changer for this team, IMO. He's not going to be better than peak Jamaal Charles and the one season we had a healthy Charles on this team we went 9-7. Reid isn't going to lean on his RBs and even if he did, Mixon would have to somehow generate anywhere from $8-10 million/season annually in marginal surplus value over the Ware/West combination.

If he's David Johnson he might get you there but that requires you to just assume he's the best all-around RB in football and won't have any more issues with the law, which is hardly a fair assumption. Moreover, the 'marginal' surplus is the key here. He has to be not only $8-$10 million better than the market over that period of time, but $8-10 million better than Ware or any other RB you may take in the 3rd/4th round of this round or subsequent drafts. I just don't see it.

[O.city]

So say they could draft mahomes or Watson in the first round without trading up. What could you save by cutting smith this year?

5 years of a rookie qb starting is so so cheap.

[milkman]

Originally Posted by O.city

So say they could draft mahomes or Watson in the first round without trading up. What could you save by cutting smith this year?

5 years of a rookie qb starting is so so cheap.

Now much do you lose if you don't have the patience to develop that rookie QB, and you ruin him by starting him too early in his career?

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

So say they could draft mahomes or Watson in the first round without trading up. What could you save by cutting smith this year?

5 years of a rookie qb starting is so so cheap.

Another $16 million.

But you don't cut Smith this year. Mahomes isn't ready to start and Watson sucks so there's no way you cut Smith when he's already part of your salary structure.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by milkman

Now much do you lose if you don't have the patience to develop that rookie QB, and you ruin him by starting him too early in his career?

If you ask him to do too much on a shit team, you could lose him.

But guys learn by playing. Even sitting a guy a year, you lose a year of financial value and experience. Now year 2 is the rookie year, year 3 and so in and so forth. If he hits it as a franchise qb and you have to shell big $ out for him, you're behind the 8 ball.

None of these dudes are probably ready, but the chiefs have a really strong roster and wouldn't necessarily need the guy to be a star early.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Another $16 million.

But you don't cut Smith this year. Mahomes isn't ready to start and Watson sucks so there's no way you cut Smith when he's already part of your salary structure.

At this point, probably too late.

But if they do land a qb they want early and a team called about offering say, a 3rd to take smith off our hands, I'd listen pretty hard.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

At this point, probably too late.

But if they do land a qb they want early and a team called about offering say, a 3rd to take smith off our hands, I'd listen pretty hard.

I don't think you can. This is a playoff team and even if that's all it is, that's still another season of live-fire for guys like Peters, Kelce, Hill, Jones and Ford. These are the young guys that need to experience playoff football.

"Gotta knock on the door before you kick it in..."

If you just give away a season (and yes, that's what you'll be doing with Mahomes under center; the schedule is likely to be damn tough at the front based on what teams are projecting), you've lost the opportunity to get those snaps for your young core. Hell, even as a backup, Mahomes could get something from the intensity of playoff preparation.

Nah, there's too much long-term value to be gained by a successful season and even a single playoff game to just wad it up and toss it for a season's worth of cap relief and a 3rd round pick.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I don't think you can. This is a playoff team and even if that's all it is, that's still another season of live-fire for guys like Peters, Kelce, Hill, Jones and Ford. These are the young guys that need to experience playoff football.

"Gotta knock on the door before you kick it in..."

If you just give away a season (and yes, that's what you'll be doing with Mahomes under center; the schedule is likely to be damn tough at the front based on what teams are projecting), you've lost the opportunity to get those snaps for your young core. Hell, even as a backup, Mahomes could get something from the intensity of playoff preparation.

Nah, there's too much long-term value to be gained by a successful season and even a single playoff game to just wad it up and toss it for a season's worth of cap relief and a 3rd round pick.

I don't know enough about Mahomes or whatever qb they take to say yet, tbh. Yeah, he may throw an extra INT or two, but I'd think he could be more productive than Smith at this point.

Hell, I never would have thought Dak could do what he did and here we are.

The Chiefs are currently really talented on both sides. Add a dynamic rb and some defensive pieces and I'm not sure you couldn't nurse your rookie qb along early and have him going by December.

Yeah, those young guys need to learn, but letting them all learn together with the qb they're gonna be with for the next 6 years would be beneficial, eh?

Plus that cap space is rollable, as you know. That could be big next year when looking for another pass rusher or what not.