*** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 ***

[duncan_idaho]

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Brainiac

Well, there's this:

Chris Young
1st 8 starts - 2.11 ERA with 3 home runs
last 7 starts- 5.50 ERA with 10 home runs
#Royals #CommencePanic

— Josh Vernier (@JoshVernier610) July 24, 2015

It appears to be a trend rather than happenstance.

Or just the natural lulls and highs any pitcher has at any point of a season. I do not dispute that he is in a slump, but it doesn't mean it's because he's "wearing down" or because of his usage.

[C3HIEF3S]

#Tigers GM Dombrowski told me mindset is still trying to make playoffs not sell.

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) July 27, 2015

[srvy]

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S

Kendrys Morales always calls Volquez "Cueto." But now that the real deal is coming? "Can't have two Cuetos!" Volquez reminds Morales #Royals

— Jeffrey Flanagan (@FlannyMLB) July 27, 2015

How bout Cueto and Quez?

[Lex Luthor]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Or just the natural lulls and highs any pitcher has at any point of a season. I do not dispute that he is in a slump, but it doesn't mean it's because he's "wearing down" or because of his usage.

It doesn't matter what the cause of the slump is. He was pitching great earlier in the year, and he's pitching like garbage now. He needs to go to the bullpen because Guthrie is outperforming him.

[Hootie]

I think Cueto is going to love our clubhouse ... tons of Latin American personalities. He's going to excel in KC

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S

#Tigers GM Dombrowski told me mindset is still trying to make playoffs not sell.

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) July 27, 2015

Awesome

[cmh6476]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

Projecting starts with 5 man rotation.


September 28 - at Cubs

<-- ticket holder

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

I think Cueto is going to love our clubhouse ... tons of Latin American personalities. He's going to excel in KC

Especially coming from Cincinnati. Brayan Pena was his closest bud there. I'm sure he told him all about KC.

[wazu]

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S

#Tigers GM Dombrowski told me mindset is still trying to make playoffs not sell.

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) July 27, 2015

4th highest payroll in baseball.

[penbrook]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

Especially coming from Cincinnati. Brayan Pena was his closest bud there. I'm sure he told him all about KC.

Volquez and Cueto are best friends. Ventura will gain so much from this

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by SNR

Here's a separate question (not in reference to trades messing up team chemistry):

Detroit may not have tanked, but they clearly had a slump in the last two months of the regular season last year. Is that for the same reason?

Most likely.

It's more sophisticated than either side paints it. Old school baseball folks will say that they had issues with chemistry, or that they choked.

Analytics-only people will say it was merely an aberration provided by a small sample size.

The latter argument is about 90% correct, IMO, but that last ten percent does matter. Part of what causes variation in play is the fact that pitching and hitting are dynamic movements that require incredibly precise timing.

Last year people in this thread were talking about how hot Nori Aoki was because he had a batting average well over .300 in September. The truth was that he was still hitting the same number of grounders that he always did, but that they were finding holes at a much higher rate than normal. His BABIP was well over .400 in September. That's not a repeatable skill; it's luck. That's the same reason why your team got rid of Frasor, who wasn't nearly as good as his ERA and why you should bench Young (who isn't either).

The vast majority of the time when people are complaining about a player playing like shit they're really bitching about randomness in a small sample size.

There are certain things you can't control in baseball, like hit sequencing. Both teams can play a game where they have eight base hits, but if the first team has one an inning and every one comes with two outs, they aren't scoring any runs, whereas if the second team has eight hits in a row they could easily score seven runs in the inning.

Two box scores: 7 8 0 and 0 8 0 .

Who really hit the ball better? Almost everyone would say team A, and they might be right, but it's not as clear as one would believe.

Baseball is not unlike origin myths. People invent narratives to explain things they can't understand--"This guy is so much better because he got confidence last year," because it provides an easily digestible fiction they can pass off as authoritative.

People said that about David Freese after 2011 and it wasn't true. Freese had a great 2012 because he was healthy the entire year and finally had a solid amount of big league experience. People are saying it about Lorenzo Cain this year. The truth is, given his relative inexperience in baseball growing up he's at the place in his aging curve where one would expect peak production.

It doesn't fit the flowery narrative, but unlike said narrative, it's actually supported by empirical evidence, not bullshit.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Brainiac

It doesn't matter what the cause of the slump is.
He was pitching great earlier in the year, and he's pitching like garbage now. He needs to go to the bullpen because Guthrie is outperforming him.

SNR,

This is exactly what I was referring to.

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S

#Tigers GM Dombrowski told me mindset is still trying to make playoffs not sell.

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) July 27, 2015

[Hootie]

8 years ago, I was probably one of the 10 best slow pitch softball players in my area. Fast forward to today ... I am still a hell of a fielder but I'm not 9 weeks in and I still haven't ****ing hit anything other than a god damn pop up or rolled over a pitch to 1st base. It's ****ing terrible. I'm a head case. If you don't think some of these hitters like Hosmer who are prone to huge slumps aren't giant head cases, then you're insane. This is why I predicted guys like Hosmer and Moose would be exponentially better this year. They are extremely talented guys ... but Moose every single year had such a terrible April he pressed constantly to get out of it. When you look at your stat line every day and you're a .180 hitter 35 games in and you're a young guy who's career is suddenly in jeopardy, you press.

Last postseason erased that doubt from Mike Moustakas ... and suddenly he's a .300 hitter with an .800 OPS and already has more hits this year than all of last year.

Talent gets you so far ... but you also need confidence. Swagger is a real thing.

[cosmo20002]