Elon Musk: Demand for Tesla's home battery is 'crazy off the hook'

[Pitt Gorilla]

https://fortune.com/2015/05/06/elon-...-home-battery/

Demand for Tesla’s energy storage batteries are so high that the company’s Nevada gigafactory could dedicate all of its production to the home and utility products, CEO Elon Musk says.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk was his usual effusive self in describing demand for his company’s new Powerwall home batteries for storing home solar energy, unveiled last week at a splashy event outside Los Angeles. He called the 38,000 pre-orders “crazy off the hook” while acknowledging that his company’s production can’t keep up.

“There’s like no way we could possibly satisfy demand this year,” Musk told analysts Wednesday during its first-quarter earnings call. “We’re basically sold out through the middle of next year.”

Musk is making good on his promise to revolutionize the auto industry with his electric carmaking upstart. Now he has set his sights on another target: energy.

Musk’s long-term vision for Tesla Energy is bold—he expects global sales and to “fundamentally change the way the world uses energy.” But even he seemed surprised by interest in the energy storage products. The level of demand has been so large the executive team is investigating whether it should boost capacity for stationary storage battery packs at its so-called “gigafactory” currently under construction near Reno, Nev.

In addition to home batteries, Tesla has come up with a bigger battery for commercial use and utilities, called Powerpack. Customers have pre-ordered 2,500 of those. Musk cast the demand as a bit deceiving. He described the reservations as the equivalent of 25,000 packs because a typical utility or heavy industrial customer would require at least 10 of the packs.

Using a somewhat similar calculation, Tesla expects the average home customer to order 1.5 to 2 of its smaller Powerwall units. If that prediction is correct, that would mean orders for as many as 60,000 Powerwall home battery packs.

About one-third of the battery pack production capacity at the gigafactory has been reserved for energy storage. However, Musk said the company could increase that capacity by as much as 50% because of unexpectedly high demand.

“The sheer volume of demand is just staggering,” he said. “We could easily have the entire gigafactory just do storage.”

Even if Tesla does boost capacity, battery packs for the Model S and the highly anticipated Model X SUV are still the priority, Musk added.

Powerwall, a sleek suitcase-sized lithium-ion battery designed for homeowners to store energy, comes in 7 kilowatt-hour and 10 kWh sizes. Both units are meant to be combined with solar panels. The 10 kWh home unit is designed as a source of backup power, while 7 kWh-unit can be used daily to extend the environmental and cost benefits of solar after the sun has gone down.

The home energy battery, which comes with a 10-year warranty, is designed to be mounted on a wall. Tesla’s selling price to installers is $3,500 for 10 kWh and $3,000 for 7 kWh. The costs don’t include installation or the inverter that converts direct current power to alternating current for use in the home. Deliveries will begin this summer.

The Powerpack will be sold in 100 kWh units and can be scaled up into multi gigawatt-hour class. The Powerpacks are priced a $250 a kilowatt-hour.

Demand for Powerpack is high, despite the poor economics of its 7 kWh daily cycling unit. Tesla did not break out reservations for the 10 kWh and 7 kWh units.

“The economics in the U.S,. with rare exception, are more expensive than utilities,” Musk admitted. “If someone wants to do daily cycling off-grid, it’s going to be more expensive than being on-grid. That doesn’t mean people won’t buy it. There are people who want to go off-grid on principle, or they just want to be independent.”

However, the 7 kWh battery does make economic sense in certain markets overseas, particularly in Germany and Australia because of tariffs and the electricity-rate structures in those countries, said Tesla co-founder and Chief Technology Officer JB Straubel.

Also on Wednesday, Tesla Motors TSLA 1.18% reported that its first-quarter revenue grew nearly 52% to $939.9 million, over the same period last year. The company also reported that its losses tripled to $154 million in the quarter, or $1.22 per share.

[aturnis]

Originally Posted by morphius

Saw this yesterday, thought it might be relevant:

Tesla's New Battery Doesn't Work That Well With Solar:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ell-with-solar

Just this one except from this article is so bad. Can't imagine what the whole thing must be like.

[aturnis]

Originally Posted by Stewie

This is not a beta version. It's rehashed technology wrapped in a ribbon by Musk and people think it's an advancement. It's not. I feel bad for the people lining up for this because they'll be disappointed.

No, it's a genius marketing move to get citizens, but mainly corporations to do the dirty work of building our energy storage infrastructures to the point to where renewable energy at a national scale begins to make sense. At that point, fossil fuel will change its game in a hurry.

[aturnis]

Originally Posted by Stewie

I admire Musk, too. He's trying. The problem is that battery manufacturing is one of the most energy intensive and polluting businesses out there.

Agree. Hopefully though, the future of energy storage isn't nearly as taxing on the earth.

[aturnis]

Originally Posted by GloucesterChief

Considering that electrical prices are in cents per kilowatt hour in the US? No, not economical at all.

Until the fossil fuel subsidies start rolling the other way. Which will happen when a better storage grid is in place, and we have a more serious talk about climate change.

[GloucesterChief]

Originally Posted by aturnis

Until the fossil fuel subsidies start rolling the other way. Which will happen when a better storage grid is in place, and we have a more serious talk about climate change.

The serious talk on climate change will never happen because one side is more akin to a Doomsday cult rather then a serious rational discussion.

Also, the "subsidies" for fossil fuels pale in comparison to the actual subsidies for solar and wind.

[splatbass]

Originally Posted by InChiefsHell

Interesting, but not yet cost effective. This is a cool start though...

Maybe not in Omaha, but out here in the Pacific it certainly is. I know people that generate more solar than they use, year round, day in day out. If they could store it easily to use at night they wouldn't need to be on the grid at all. Which would be good because the electric company charges them $50 a month even if they don't use any from the grid (freakin crooks).

Couple that with the fact that we have the most expensive electricity in the country (by a lot - more than double the next most expensive state) and you can save a substantial amount of money with solar. A friend went from $800 a month to the $50 monthly fee using solar. It also helps to get us off of foreign oil, since 90% of our electricity comes from oil burning generators.

It can also be cost effective in SoCal, the southwest and the south, a pretty good chunk of the country.

I hope that people like you who aren't currently benefiting from solar don't kill it for the people that are.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

I'm looking to add Solar in the next three years, so this would be awesome.

All the rich people like me already have them. What are you waiting on?

[GloucesterChief]

Originally Posted by splatbass

Maybe not in Omaha, but out here in the Pacific it certainly is. I know people that generate more solar than they use, year round, day in day out. If they could store it easily to use at night they wouldn't need to be on the grid at all. Which would be good because the electric company charges them $50 a month even if they don't use any from the grid (freakin crooks).

Couple that with the fact that we have the most expensive electricity in the country (by a lot - more than double the next most expensive state) and you can save a substantial amount of money with solar. A friend went from $800 a month to the $50 monthly fee using solar. It also helps to get us off of foreign oil, since 90% of our electricity comes from oil burning generators.

It can also be cost effective in SoCal, the southwest and the south, a pretty good chunk of the country.

I hope that people like you who aren't currently benefiting from solar don't kill it for the people that are.

That is Hawaii which gets screwed by the Jones Act making everything much more expensive. Again, the government making things much more expensive then they need to be.

[Mr. Laz]

California Test Track For Elon Musk's Hyperloop To Be Built
By Stephen Edelstein
27,603 viewsMay 18, 2015


Concept drawings for Elon Musk’s 800-mph HyperloopConcept drawings for Elon Musk’s 800-mph Hyperloop

Tesla's Powerwall home batteries have grabbed headlines recently, but another of Tesla CEO Elon Musk's many big ideas could be reaching an important stage in its development.

That would be the "Hyperloop," a system of tubes and windowless pods that's unlike any current form of mass transportation.

Elon Musk first proposed the Hyperloop in the summer of 2013, and since then a private company has been working to develop his concept into a functioning transportation system.

Hyperloop Transportation Technologies--the company that has taken charge of Hyperloop development, independent of Musk--has made a deal with landowners in central California on a site for its first test track.

The track will span 5 miles near the busy Interstate 5 highway somewhere between San Francisco and Los Angeles, according to a recent Navigant Research blog post.

In his initial 57-page white paper describing the concept, Musk boasted that a Hyperloop would allow travel between those two cities in just 30 minutes, in pods propelled through tubes using a combination of magnets and fans.


Concept drawings for Elon Musk’s 800-mph HyperloopConcept drawings for Elon Musk’s 800-mph Hyperloop

Musk originally called for a top speed of 800 mph, but tests will be conducted at a more modest 200 mph.

One reason for that is that engineers won't have the 100 miles of track Musk estimated would be needed for a pod to accelerate to 800 mph.

The test track--which is expected to break ground in 2016--will cost about $100 million. Most of that funding is expected to come from an initial public offering by Hyperloop Transportation Technologies later this year.

Construction of a full-scale system covering the 400 miles between San Francisco and Los Angeles would cost around $8 billion, Navigant estimates--assuming the cost of track and pods don't increase.

That's substantially less than the $67.6 billion price tag estimated for California's planned high-speed rail system by the California High-Speed Rail Authority.

However, the $8 billion figure doesn't factor in development costs--which could be quite high.


'Revenge of the Electric Car' premiere: Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk on red carpet'Revenge of the Electric Car' premiere: Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk on red carpet

As a completely new form of transportation, the Hyperloop can't lean on existing infrastructure or industries to speed development. It all must be made from scratch.

That's what has largely blocked widespread development of maglev ("magnetic levitation") trains--which are propelled by magnetic forces.

Like the Hyperloop, maglev was intended to move large numbers of people quickly. Both also seem to be pitched as replacements for conventional wheeled trains.

There are also more than a few questions remaining on the issue of whether shooting people through a tube at 800 mph will actually be practical.

Hyperloop concept - Image via Hyperloop Transportation TechnologiesHyperloop concept - Image via Hyperloop Transportation Technologies
Some measures may need to be taken to counteract the effects of acceleration. Either that, or a vomit-proof material must be devised for the interiors of the pods.

It's also unclear whether the Hyperloop's planned solar-generated electic power system will be able to provide enough energy consistently to run the system.

But if the development company's plans pan out, we should get some answers sooner rather than later.

[DaFace]

In case anyone's interested, the biography of Elon came out today:
http://www.amazon.com/Elon-Musk-Spac...dp/0062301233/

[MagicHef]

http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/05/elon-m...ddest-man.html

[fan4ever]

Originally Posted by WhawhaWhat

The Republicans lead the charge on the other side. Taxing people because they went solar.

Read the article; funny...vote went 83-5 with no debate. The Oklahoma legislature has 83 republicans in office...and none of the 5 democrats wanted to debate the bill? Also, from what I read, it has all the dressing of what liberals want; sharing of wealth...taking from those who could afford solar panels and sharing with those who could not.

[aturnis]

Originally Posted by fan4ever

Read the article; funny...vote went 83-5 with no debate. The Oklahoma legislature has 83 republicans in office...and none of the 5 democrats wanted to debate the bill? Also, from what I read, it has all the dressing of what liberals want; sharing of wealth...taking from those who could afford solar panels and sharing with those who could not.

What?