Official 2017 STL Cardinals Thread

[BigRedChief]

My as well get it started. Here's my "Matheny" lineup.....

Fowler CF
Diaz SS
Carpenter 1B
Piscotty RF
Grichuk LF
Molina C
Peralta 3B
Wong 2B
Pitcher

My "Matheny" Starting rotation

Martinez
Reyes
Wainwright
Lynn
Leake

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

Diluting the game is watching trash bench players have to bat and taking out pitchers who are pitching well because they are up to bat the next inning.

The original DH players were those "trash bench" players. Carpenter and Schwarber would still have jobs, those teams would just have to justify them at certain positions, like NBA teams do for guys that can't play a lick of defense, but can shoot lights out.

[Hoover]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Not a fan of the trade at all.

Full panic mode to try and win a shit division only to get swept by the Dodgers in the playoffs because 1 pitcher isn't going to change shit. Especially Quintana who isn't even a TOR guy.

This is not a panic move. Its a deal that helps them now and in the future as Quintana is under their control until 2020 with 8, 10, and 11 million dollar yearly options. And the Cubs still have young talent to make other moves. Happ, Candelaro, Schwarber, Almora, and Baez. They could move all five of those guys and still have a great core of young guys in the majors.

Cubs got better.

If they can turn around their pitching in the 2nd half, I think they easily win the division. Plus their bullpen is better with Montgomery back in it.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

Diluting the game is watching trash bench players have to bat and taking out pitchers who are pitching well because they are up to bat the next inning.

Requiring a team to have a quality bench, a deep bullpen and a savvy manager to be successful is a feature, not a bug.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by Hoover

This is not a panic move. Its a deal that helps them now and in the future as Quintana is under their control until 2020 with 8, 10, and 11 million dollar yearly options. And the Cubs still have young talent to make other moves. Happ, Candelaro, Schwarber, Almora, and Baez. They could move all five of those guys and still have a great core of young guys in the majors.

Cubs got better.

If they can turn around their pitching in the 2nd half, I think they easily win the division. Plus their bullpen is better with Montgomery back in it.

They sold the farm with an offer that was "well above the rest" according to Hann for a guy that fits the mold of a John Lackey. A dude who is thought of as a TOR with numbers that wouldn't make him more than a #3 on a solid playoff rotation.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by jd1020

They sold the farm with an offer that was "well above the rest" according to Hann for a guy that fits the mold of a John Lackey. A dude who is thought of as a TOR with numbers that wouldn't make him more than a #3 on a solid playoff rotation.

Let's be fair here - Quintana has been a roughly 4.5 WAR/yr pitcher for the last 4 years.

That is not a 'solid #3'.

Quintana doesn't have the kind of stuff I look for in a post-season starter, but neither did Hendricks or Lackey. And just a couple of days ago you were talking about Hendricks 'true talent' and claiming he was a genuine top tier starter despite the fact that he's not conventionally 'dominant'.

Well Quintana fits a very similar mold. Now perhaps Hendricks is proof that those kinds of guys have so little margin for error that you shouldn't be acquiring them for big packages because they can fall off with even a small decline in skills. But he's also a solid argument that there are a lot of different ways to succeed in this game.

The Cubs are betting that the last 7 starts suggest that Quintana's skills haven't eroded and he's back to being that 4-5 WAR pitcher he's been literally every other year of his career. If that's the case, they just got about $80 million in surplus value over the next 3+ seasons. Maybe they're wrong. Maybe the 3 year pattern of slippage in his FIP is a sign of genuine slippage.

But that's baseball. If it were easy these execs wouldn't make the money they do. Theo took a gamble - we'll see how it works out.

[Hoover]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Let's be fair here - Quintana has been a roughly 4.5 WAR/yr pitcher for the last 4 years.

That is not a 'solid #3'.

Quintana doesn't have the kind of stuff I look for in a post-season starter, but neither did Hendricks or Lackey. And just a couple of days ago you were talking about Hendricks 'true talent' and claiming he was a genuine top tier starter despite the fact that he's not conventionally 'dominant'.

Well Quintana fits a very similar mold. Now perhaps Hendricks is proof that those kinds of guys have so little margin for error that you shouldn't be acquiring them for big packages because they can fall off with even a small decline in skills. But he's also a solid argument that there are a lot of different ways to succeed in this game.

The Cubs are betting that the last 7 starts suggest that Quintana's skills haven't eroded and he's back to being that 4-5 WAR pitcher he's been literally every other year of his career. If that's the case, they just got about $80 million in surplus value over the next 3+ seasons. Maybe they're wrong. Maybe the 3 year pattern of slippage in his FIP is a sign of genuine slippage.

But that's baseball. If it were easy these execs wouldn't make the money they do. Theo took a gamble - we'll see how it works out.

BINGO

Great post.

[jd1020]

When have I ever touted Hendricks? The most I have ever done is post his numbers, and they are much better than Quintana's. I've never been a true believer in Hendricks because pitchers like him who don't have a plus pitch and below average velocity walk a very fine line. Hendricks crossed that line when he started throwing his reach back and sling it fastball 5-6 mphs slower than last year which ruins his bread and butter change up.

I care less about a pitchers WAR than I do their ERA and WHIP and there's nothing jaw dropping about Quintana. If he wasn't left handed he would just be a fish in a pond full of fish.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by jd1020

When have I ever touted Hendricks? The most I have ever done is post his numbers. I've never been a true believer in Hendricks because pitchers like him who don't have a plus pitch and below average velocity walk a very fine line. Hendricks crossed that line when he started throwing his reach back and sling it fastball 5-6 mphs slower than last year which ruins his bread and butter change up.

I care less about a pitchers WAR than I do their ERA and WHIP and there's nothing jaw dropping about Quintana. If he wasn't left handed he would just be a fish in a pond full of fish.

When you were arguing with Hamas.

Kyle Hendricks came back down to earth yet he holds a career ERA of just over 3 with a career WHIP of just over 1. And out dueled Clayton Kershaw in the deciding NLCS game and shouldn't have been taken out in game 7 of the WS as early as he was. His BABIP is literally just .009 points higher this year.

How's that not making a stand in favor of Hendricks? Citing his career numbers and taking down Kershaw in an argument where Hamas is calling him a one-off is pretty clearly 'touting' Hendricks. Otherwise wouldn't you have just been better served saying "oh, yeah....you're right, Hendricks DID have a career year and shouldn't have been counted on..."?

What the hell was the point in 'rebutting' Hamas if it wasn't defending Hendricks?

And if Quintana wasn't lefthanded he wouldn't be as good...um...so? The being lefthanded thing absolutely matters in a league that's predominantly righthanded. Christ, if Lester wasn't lefthanded he'd just be some POS soft-tosser who can't throw over to 1b. Lester and Quintana are peas in a pod. Going forward I'd FAR prefer Quintana to Lester, in fact. The fact remains that he IS lefthanded and that makes him a difficult matchup for many hitters that just aren't used to dealing with lefties.

The value in WAR isn't in October, I'll grant you. Like I said - Quintana is not the kind of arm I prefer in the postseason. But high WAR for SPs is absolutely valueable because it speaks to reliability. And if you ever want to know the value of reliability, look at the championship you guys finally got after your whole damn starting staff was a model of durability and faced an Indians staff that was in absolute tatters.

You're underselling a good pitcher because he isn't Sale and he doesn't have the 'sexy' arsenal of a guy like Archer. Quintana has a lot of things to like. I'm not sure it's a deal I'd have made but I understand why Theo did. I think they gave up way WAY more ceiling than they got back, but they also got a hell of a lot more floor for a couple of guys that haven't taken a swing in AA yet (and a couple more throw-ins). For a defending champion with a roster full of 24-26 yr old starters, that's exactly the kind of move you're willing to make.

[jd1020]

So making a comment on the year he had and his career is suggesting he's some elite future TOR pitcher? All I see are facts.

Hamas is a guy who thinks Hendricks ran some miracle BABIP to a near Cy Young season when his current shit year has a BABIP average just .009 points higher.

I'm not underselling anything. Quintana is nothing special. His numbers show it. The Cubs bought Robin for Batmans price.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by jd1020

So making a comment on the year he had and his career is suggesting he's some elite future TOR pitcher? All I see are facts.

Hamas is a guy who think Hendricks ran some miracle BABIP to a near Cy Young season when his current shit year has a BABIP average just .009 points higher.

When he calls Hendricks a '#3 starter with average stuff' and you start to cite a good career ERA/WHIP and the fact that he outpitched Kershaw in the post-season, I find it difficult to now listen to you try to argue that he was just some crap starter.

If he says he's a #3 starter and you argue with him, are you NOT calling Hendricks a top of the rotation starter? Because 1/2 are the top of the rotation, near as I can tell.

And I ask again - what's the difference between Quintana and Lester? if anything, THAT would be what frustrates me - Quintana's stuff isn't complementary to what you have. He's a very similar pitcher to the guy you'll have at the top anyway. And if you lose Arrieta next year, your 1 and 2 starters are going to be very similar pitching off each other. That's not generally a great recipe.

But it doesn't mean Quintana isn't a very good pitcher in his own right. If he's 'nothing special' then neither is Jon Lester.

[jd1020]

You continue to try and put words in my mouth in regards to Hendricks. I've never called him an elite pitcher and I've never called him crap.

He's a pitcher with a very fine line for success. He relies on change of speed and he doesn't have it when he's throwing 85 mph fastballs.

He's had a very good 2.5 year start to his career and earlier in this thread I said I would think about trading him. If I thought Hendricks was some elite pitcher why the **** would I think about trading a guy pre-arbitration on the defending world champs?

[Hoover]

Originally Posted by jd1020

You continue to try and put words in my mouth in regards to Hendricks. I've never called him an elite pitcher and I've never called him crap.

He's a pitcher with a very fine line for success. He relies on change of speed and he doesn't have it when he's throwing 85 mph fastballs.

He's had a very good 2.5 year start to his career and earlier in this thread I said I would think about trading him. If I thought Hendricks was some elite pitcher why the **** would I think about trading a guy pre-arbitration on the defending world champs?

The Cubs also control Hendricks until 2020. Another cheap starting pitcher. If anything, you just let him walk in 2021. Its similar to what they are doing with Arrieta. Avoid paying huge contracts.

[jd1020]

Also, the Cubs got Lester in FA so I don't see a need to compare their situations and Quintana hasn't been close to putting up the numbers Lester has the last 2+ years. I could also argue that when in Boston he pitched in a much much tougher division.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by jd1020

They signed Lester to a 150M contract and Heyward. Lester's contract is a bargain as far as pitchers of his caliber are concerned...

Jon Lester - so good that his $150 million contract is 'a bargain'.

Jose Quintana - 'nothing special'.

Jon Lester's WAR over the last 5 years - 16. Jose Quintana' WAR - 19. Average fastball velocities are virtually indistinguishable. Respective arsenals are extremely similar. In terms of park/league adjusted ERA, Quintana has had better seasons in 2 of his 4 full seasons and in total there within percentage points of each other with Lester having a slight edge. Park/league adjusted FIP tightens up even more and still has a 2/2 split with Quintana now a tick ahead of Lester.

Okay. We'll just chalk this bit of insanity into standard emotional fan responses. We all have them. If you want to continue to act like Quintana is Jaime Garcia or something, be my guest. But 'nothing special' isn't right - he's a damn good pitcher who'd probably get somewhere north of $25 million/season on the open market and you'd have to pay him for 2-3 years too long. You guys will pay $33 TOTAL for the next 3+ years, all of which are his prime season.

You got a hell of a lot of value here. It may still not work out - pitchers are volatile, but don't shortchange the return.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by jd1020

You continue to try and put words in my mouth in regards to Hendricks. I've never called him an elite pitcher and I've never called him crap.

He's a pitcher with a very fine line for success. He relies on change of speed and he doesn't have it when he's throwing 85 mph fastballs.

He's had a very good 2.5 year start to his career and earlier in this thread I said I would think about trading him. If I thought Hendricks was some elite pitcher why the **** would I think about trading a guy pre-arbitration on the defending world champs?

Someone called him a #3 and you started arguing with him.

How again isn't that calling him a top of the rotation starter?