The Chiefs are good enough to give Andy Reid the Super Bowl he deserves

[Direckshun]

My body is willing.

https://www.sbnation.com/2017/9/18/1...bowl-contender

The Chiefs are good enough to give Andy Reid the Super Bowl he deserves
Andy Reid and the Chiefs look like the best team in the NFL right now, and I’m so here for it.
by Louis Bien @louisbien
Sep 18, 2017, 11:01am EDT

There are seven NFL teams sitting at 2-0, and none of them has looked as good as the Kansas City Chiefs. This is weird.

Not that the Chiefs being good is weird. The Chiefs have had a winning record each season and missed the playoffs just once in four years under Andy Reid.

But for the Chiefs to look utterly dominant is something else. Under Reid, the Chiefs have become the sort of high-floor, low-ceiling team that you wouldn’t really expect to see in the Super Bowl. They’ve gone down swinging (read: painfully, excruciatingly) in all three of their playoff losses under Reid and have yet to get past the Divisional round. They could be counted on to be pretty good in all phases — to rush better than most teams, to be frustrating to score on, and to not cough up the ball — but fall short when games are tight and matter most.

In two games against two good opponents this season — the Eagles finished last season fifth in DVOA, the Patriots were first and, like, won a Super Bowl — the Chiefs have scored 69 points and given up 47, rushed for 331 yards, passed for 519, and generally look like an enhanced version of the team we’ve come to know. A rising tide lifts all boats — or in this case, a rejuvenated Alex Smith makes the Chiefs a helluva lot harder to deal with. He has been spectacular through two games, throwing for 619 yards at 9.8 yards per attempt and a 134 passer rating.

With not even two weeks completed in the season, we have only enough data to overreact to what we see. That said, the Chiefs seem worth overreacting to. They have always been good. The idea that they may be great isn’t at all farfetched. They have been building toward this for years. On its current trajectory, this would be one of Reid’s finest teams ever — and oh, it’s bucking NFL conventions along the way, which is always good and never bad.

This is basically a college team

The axiom goes that champions are built through the NFL Draft. By my count, the Chiefs are starting 16 players who they drafted, with just one of those players — veteran linebacker Derrick Johnson — having been on the roster longer than Reid.

This team has been built in Reid’s image, particularly on offense where the Chiefs have finally stockpiled a critical mass of squat, fast-twitch, space-destroyers to hornswoggle the league.

The most shocking thing about the Chiefs’ season-opening win over the Patriots was that they did it while running what looked like a college offense. Early in the game Smith, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce formed a backfield, and Kelce stepped up to take the snap and ran the option:



And it worked! So the Chiefs kept running it all night, sometimes throwing three backs and two tight ends on the field to complete their Navy impression.

A rookie — running back Kareem Hunt — was maybe the most important player on the field. He finished with 148 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries, and he looked explosive, and tough, and remarkably balanced in the process. The circumstances of general manager John Dorsey’s firing this offseason are somewhat cloudy, but he gave the cash-strapped Chiefs an incredible parting gift in the third-rounder.

Hunt and the running game opened up the downfield passing game, and Smith cleaned up, throwing for 178 yards on just three deep balls. He had two more deep passes for 79 yards against the Eagles, which is good for anyone and outstanding for a notorious dink-and-dunker. Smith looks like a brand new quarterback this season.

Alex Smith is playing with cuss

After rookie backup Pat Mahomes unleashed a series of spectacular passes in the Chiefs’ final preseason game, Smith was spotted on the sideline looking ... not enthused. The moment recalled his body language in the midst of losing his starting job to Colin Kaepernick with the 49ers.

Smith never got his starting job back in San Francisco. So far after stepping back into the Chiefs’ lineup, he has not only played well, but so unlike himself.

Smith is averaging 6.8 yards per attempt over his career, which is paltry given he’s completing 62 percent of his passes. Last season, just 8.16 percent of his passes traveled more than 20 yards through the air, according to Cian Fahey’s Pre-Snap Reads Quarterback Catalogue, fewer than every qualified quarterback except Sam Bradford and Jared Goff.

This season, Smith has attempted seven passes longer than 20 yards, roughly 11 percent of his attempts, and complete five of them. One of his best was a dime he dropped to a covered Chris Conley on the Chiefs’ final touchdown drive against the Eagles for a 35-yard gain.

Maybe it took a much younger, rocket-armed existential threat to draw out this new, aggressive Alex Smith, or maybe it’s the fact that he’s finally playing in an offense that he’s truly comfortable in ...

“One of the things we did when Alex came here was we went back and kind of looked at some of the stuff he had done in college and was familiar with,” Reid said, referring to what would become part of the base offense.

Whatever the case, the Chiefs’ offense is well-positioned to go much further than it has in years.

And yet there are two things that could bring the Chiefs to a screeching halt

he first: The Chiefs lost Eric Berry for the season to a non-contact Achilles injury in the season opener. Perhaps no defensive position is as heaped with responsibility as safety in today’s NFL, and Berry plays it as instinctually and beautifully as anyone in the league.

He was a big reason why Rob Gronkowski couldn’t get open against the Chiefs’ secondary. Should they face the Patriots again this season, Berry’s absence could be costly.

The second: This is still an Andy Reid team, and for all the good that means — his teams are as consistent and well-balanced as they come — the Chiefs will be hamstrung in late-game situations.

This is the Reid Paradox: He is somehow both the best and worst thing to happen to NFL teams. There is nothing more to do than to point at the team’s last two playoff losses. Reid is hardwired to make egregious game-management mistakes. And yet, it’s not like we ever see him panic. You get the sense that Reid is a laborious thinker who is uncomfortable being sped up. At some point this season, the Chiefs will enter the final minutes of the fourth quarter with either too many timeouts or not enough, and when they lose by one score, Reid will be the only person who isn’t miffed.

I can’t help but make this personal: I love Andy Reid

I love that his players love him, I love that he loves Hawaiian shirts, and I love how he tweaks the game. He and Bill Belichick are perhaps the only two NFL head coaches who you can count on to truly innovate a game plan rather than simply iterate on a few guiding principles. Every week, they’ll do something that no other NFL team is doing, and it’ll work. And unlike Belichick, Reid is a person. Bill Belichick has never looked this happy.

I’m a Lions fan, so every year I pick another team I want to win a Super Bowl since mine won’t. I am so here for a Chiefs title run. Innovation deserves to be rewarded. Time — not just Reid’s near-20 seasons, but Smith’s quest to be deemed worthy and Berry’s constant battle against his body — deserves to be rewarded. Fun deserves to be rewarded, and it’s been so long since that has felt like the case in the Super Bowl.

This is a team in Reid’s image. It is quirky, and disciplined and unassuming for how good it has been. This is what his tenure in Kansas City has been building up to. The roster is of the team’s own design, and now it’s up to Reid to guide it. He is the biggest reason why this might the Chiefs’ year, but he’ll be the biggest reason if it’s not.

[WhiteWhale]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

It's a lot like getting DJ back in '15. We just forgot how much he allowed everyone else to do their jobs and when he came back, suddenly things looked way less shitty in the box.

Getting Houston back has obviously been a nice addition against the pass but holy shit, it's easy to forget how much he wrecks the run. You just can't run to his side - period. He's going to destroy that play.

Like you, I hate losing Berry. But I'd trade Berry for getting Houston back every time. This defense can operate at a higher level than last year's by a lot because Houston can truly anchor it.

Houston is a monster in the run game.

It's like Reggie White. Reggie was a BETTER run defender than pass rusher, but it gets less attention. Remember how Reggie almost single handedly shut down Barry sanders in the playoffs?

You don't just get the edge on Houston. He's been a ****ing monster on that edge since he was a rookie. His run D is ****ing amazing.

That's why you don't want him to play ROLB like you would a pure rusher. Keep him on the strong side. His impact is always felt even if he doesn't have a good day rushing the QB.

I literally laugh out loud when I see teams pitch the ball and try to sweep at Houston.

Good luck.

[penbrook]

Originally Posted by WhiteWhale

Houston is a monster in the run game.

It's like Reggie White. Reggie was a BETTER run defender than pass rusher, but it gets less attention. Remember how Reggie almost single handedly shut down Barry sanders in the playoffs?

You don't just get the edge on Houston. He's been a ****ing monster on that edge since he was a rookie. His run D is ****ing amazing.

That's why you don't want him to play ROLB like you would a pure rusher. Keep him on the strong side. His impact is always felt even if he doesn't have a good day rushing the QB.

I literally laugh out loud when I see teams pitch the ball and try to sweep at Houston.

Good luck.

He's pretty damn good in coverage as well.

[Rausch]

I'm not saying it's probable but it's possible.

No one - NO ONE - in the AFC has the talent we do as a team.

Period.

Denver is a possible argument to that due to their glut of defensive talent and great WR's.

I still would argue Denver doesn't have the same level of talent but they're much better at that defense limiting yards and getting sacks.

And, not to dis them, they probably have the 2nd best defensive talent in the league. Hell, I'd argue they'll finish with better stats as far as yardage goes.

They've looked impressive. So far...

[New World Order]

Originally Posted by Rausch

I'm not saying it's probable but it's possible.

No one - NO ONE - in the AFC has the talent we do as a team.

Period.

Denver is a possible argument to that due to their glut of defensive talent and great WR's.

I still would argue Denver doesn't have the same level of talent but they're much better at that defense limiting yards and getting sacks.

And, not to dis them, they probably have the 2nd best defensive talent in the league. Hell, I'd argue they'll finish with better stats as far as yardage goes.

They've looked impressive. So far...

Only team I'm scared of in the AFC is Pitt.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by New World Order

Only team I'm scared of in the AFC is Pitt.

I don't want that matchup.

I said it last year: we'll dick-smack the Pats but the Steelers are a bad matchup...

[Eleazar]

Originally Posted by Rausch

I don't want that matchup.

I said it last year: we'll dick-smack the Pats but the Steelers are a bad matchup...

I'm no so sure we can take for granted a pummeling of the Patriots in their house twice in the same year.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by splatbass

You aren't going to have every drive be effective, at least not very often. That is why every team in the NFL has a punter. If you are knocking Alex Smith because he doesn't score a TD on every drive you have unrealistic expectations.

I didn't say he has to score a TD every drive. I'm pointing to an obvious pattern that's so consistent, I don't know how nobody else sees it.

Alex Smith plays effective 1-2 drives (sometimes), he reads how the game is going, and that determines how he'll play the rest of the game. If the defense is hot, he'll be conservative as all hell. If the defense sucks, he'll be aggressive. It's not that he has bad drives. It's that in the middle of games, the bad drives are clumped together and he looks like a totally different QB. He hesitates on throws, checks down, holds onto the ball too long and takes a ton of sacks. Tons of third downs where we take a coverage sack or throw short of the sticks.The biggest turnaround in the Philly game wasn't OL play, it was playcalling and Alex decisively getting rid of the ball very quickly on the last 3 drives.

He got hot early in NE because NE put up 17 points in a hurry. Haven't we seen that before? Alex has very often responded to our defense playing poorly by matching with a shootout. But can he ever put together a big 2nd or 3rd quarter when the defense is doing well? That Philly 2nd and 3rd quarter, for all we want to blame it on the OL, looked extremely consistent with how Alex Smith has approached the middle of close games his entire time in KC. I don't think people realize that the 2 games we've seen aren't that different from how Alex Smith has approached games the last few years. It's still game management.

[notorious]

Originally Posted by Rausch

I don't want that matchup.

I said it last year: we'll dick-smack the Pats but the Steelers are a bad matchup...

The horses are back on the DLine.

If we had all the guys healthy in the playoff game the Chiefs would have won going away.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

I didn't say he has to score a TD every drive. I'm pointing to an obvious pattern that's so consistent, I don't know how nobody else sees it.

Alex Smith plays effective 1-2 drives (sometimes)

I think we can safely say it's more like 4 effective drives per game... and the bend-don't-break defense isn't giving them lots of extra time/possessions.

The drives that fail are often due to a crucial dropped pass, bizarre Andy call, a failed run, back-breaking OL/Kelce penalty, and yes.. sometimes, Smith playing the safe/field position game of eating sacks versus taking risks.

Team game. Smith can add a drive or two just from being more aggressive himself, perhaps.. but many drives fail due to circumstances not his own... yet later get lumped onto him as personal failures.

Just like last year, and the years before.. this is a frustrating style they employ that gets KC lots of wins. Smith is looking downfield a bit more, but they are not going to completely abandon this frustrating style. I'm sure we all hope they learned a painful lesson, and take a different approach in the playoffs.

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by penbrook

Best team in the AFC? A 3 way tie with the teams in the AFC West minus the Chargers

I look forward to revisiting this in January...

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

I don't think people realize that the 2 games we've seen aren't that different from how Alex Smith has approached games the last few years. It's still game management.

Agreed, but the QB is just the gun. Andy Reid is THE man that is holding the gun. It's easy to throw anger and blame on the person you already have preconceived notions and dislike for. But easy is not always accurate or fair.

[CupidStunt]

Originally Posted by notorious

The horses are back on the DLine.

If we had all the guys healthy in the playoff game the Chiefs would have won going away.

We didn't allow a TD and lost. Get out of here.

My God, it's 2017, the final 4 was Brady, Rodgers, Ryan and Big Ben, and people are still making pathetic excuses about the health of some D-linemen.

News flash: the Chiefs will only win in the playoffs if Smiff moves the ball. There's no such thing as the Dilfer Ravens, Johnson Bucs, etc. How do people still not understand this.

We had 227 TOTAL YARDS in a playoff game, for **** sake. 22% on 3rd down. Our top 2 WRs had FIFTY-FIVE ****ing yards. If Smiff plays like week 1 we'll win the Super Bowl. If he plays anything remotely like he did last January, we'll be out of the playoffs faster than he'll be traded in the offseason.

[notorious]

Originally Posted by CupidStunt

We didn't allow a TD and lost. Get out of here.

My God, it's 2017, the final 4 was Brady, Rodgers, Ryan and Big Ben, and people are still making pathetic excuses about the health of some D-linemen.

News flash: the Chiefs will only win in the playoffs if Smiff moves the ball. There's no such thing as the Dilfer Ravens, Johnson Bucs, etc. How do people still not understand this.

We had 227 TOTAL YARDS in a playoff game, for **** sake. 22% on 3rd down. Our top 2 WRs had FIFTY-FIVE ****ing yards. If Smiff plays like week 1 we'll win the Super Bowl. If he plays anything remotely like he did last January, we'll be out of the playoffs faster than he'll be traded in the offseason.

No shit Sherlock. Where have I said otherwise?

Read any of my 100000 posts on the playoff game and get back to me.

Until then, jam your rant up that bleeding gash you call a vagina.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

This isn't 2 games in isolation. It fits a pattern we've seen over several years...

That's my point, though - you HAVE to view it in isolation. Like I said, there's an argument to be made but you aren't (weren't) making it.

If your position is that you want to see more - okay, I get that. But when you're looking at the recent two games and trying to lump it into a trend, you're absolutely falling prey to confirmation bias.

Because had you known nothing about Alex Smith (or had Mahomes done the exact same thing), you wouldn't be making these arguments. Those performances by Smith, in isolation, do not support your argument.

You can squint and try to shoehorn them into your preconceived conclusions, but you're not giving them a fair read at that point.

Smith threw for 350+ yards and 4 TDs, including making big plays when we actually had a lead in week 1. He threw for 250 yards and went deep 4 times in a game that we were trailing for 3 minutes and never ran a risk of losing a handle on (seriously, 'Wentz was moving the ball' is the best you've got? How many games was our opponent moving the ball and we simply couldn't answer over the last 4 seasons? Several).

If you saw "the same old Alex" in those games, you're just seeing what you wanted to see. You're trying too hard to fit him into the narrative of that 4 years of football and refusing to consider the possibility that he has changed his approach. You've acknowledged it by insisting that it's not '2 games in isolation' that you're considering.

And that's not the conversation that is being had right now. Yes, Smith needs to do more to establish that this is a new normal but what we have seen for those 2 game is absolutely something different. Besides, the problem with Smith has never been the 80% of his play - by and large the bulk of his snaps have always been sufficient. It's the 3-4 plays/gm he's left on the field that could make all the difference in the world.

Right now he's trying those 3-4 plays and he's hitting them. He's making the throw that he didn't make against Pittsburgh, or he's at least attempting it (the throw he made to Hill against Philly is a perfect example of that). The throw he made to Hunt rather than his shell efforts in the playoff game against NE is another one. He's playing differently right now. Maybe it lasts, maybe it doesn't. But there's no good way to argue that this is just the same ol' Smith. His 'down' game yielded a 4,000 yard pace when the Chiefs never really had an urgent need to spread it out and throw it around. That's a different brand of quarterbacking.

[Luke Atamadong]

Originally Posted by Hoover

I know we are only two games into the season, but man it does seem like there is something special about this team. So young, so fast, so talented.

I think it's the balance too. We've had pretty good teams, but we've never been nearly this balanced.