Realistic expectations for Patrick Mahomes

[TimBone]

I know in the hearts of every planeteer, Mahomes has already led us to multiple Super Bowls, and that this whole career thing is just a formality before his HOF induction ceremony, but what is everyone realistically looking for from him this season?

Maybe I'm just letting my battered fan syndrome take over, but I feel like we need to pump the brakes a little bit. He looked solid against Denver, sure, but he's still just a second year guy that was pretty raw coming out of college.

So, what kind of numbers would everyone be happy with? What kind of things will you all be personally looking for from him?

Lastly, if you think I'm being a pussy and need to shut up and buckle up for the Mahomes show, please hit me with your best neg rep. The funnier the better.

[RunKC]

For ****s sake, some INT’s happen to almost every good QB:

DeShaun Watson was on pace to throw 18 INT’s last season.
Drew Brees threw 15 or more INT’s in a season NINE seasons of his career. That’s over HALF of his goddamn years as a starter.
Phillip Rivers has thrown 15 or more INT’s in 5 of his 12 years as a starter. Almost ****ing half.
Peyton Manning has 8 years of 15 or more INT’s.
Andrew ****ing Luck, the Jesus Christ of QB’s, has 68 INT’s in 70 games played.

Good QB’s turn the ball over. It’s bound to happen, especially with gunslingers. It’s not the end of the ****ing world.

Obviously we hope that Pat can master his efficiency like Aaron Rodgers, but idk if that is possible.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by RunKC

For ****s sake, some INT’s happen to almost every good QB:

DeShaun Watson was on pace to throw 18 INT’s last season.
Drew Brees threw 15 or more INT’s in a season NINE seasons of his career. That’s over HALF of his goddamn years as a starter.
Phillip Rivers has thrown 15 or more INT’s in 5 of his 12 years as a starter. Almost ****ing half.
Peyton Manning has 8 years of 15 or more INT’s.
Andrew ****ing Luck, the Jesus Christ of QB’s, has 68 INT’s in 70 games played.

Good QB’s turn the ball over. It’s bound to happen, especially with gunslingers. It’s not the end of the ****ing world.

Obviously we hope that Pat can master his efficiency like Aaron Rodgers, but idk if that is possible.

This... as long as the yards, TDs, completion %, decision making, etc results in many more wins than losses... turnovers are just part of it.

[NYChiefsFan59]

Originally Posted by Spott

As a Chiefs fan, I have absolutely no expectations of him at all. I never, ever get my hopes up about anything this team does.

+1 Would be nice! Cause Chiefs

[Halfcan]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Umm... I shouldn't even respond to this but I will...

4400 yards would have put him 4th in the NFL in 2017.
29 TD's would have tied him for 4th in the NFL in 2017.
I feel like I"m going full homer just by thinking he will get anywhere near those numbers, when history says it's highly unlikely.

19 INTs are only 4 more than Peyton Manning threw in his 2nd season and 9 less than he threw his rookie year. Dan Marino, even in his epic 2nd season, threw 17 picks. Drew Brees, who played in only 1 game as a rookie as well, threw 16 picks. The list goes on.

Point is, even some of the better QBs of the past 20 years have had to learn the hard way. This kid is a risk taker and he's likely going to throw quite a few picks his first year out the gate.

If I were looking more at history and less at how I feel about this kid's abilities, I'd probably have him around 3500 yards, 20 tds and 17 ints as a best-case scenario. I chose instead to go full homer.

If you're expecting some crazy shit like 4700 yards, 35 tds and 10 ints in year 1, I think you ought to temper your expectations.

Great post. I understand what you are saying- and I agree. If Mahomes wins 10 games with that tough schedule, puts up 4k in yards and 30 Td's, we win the West again and at least a playoff game- that would be an amazing 2nd year for him. Wins are the best stat.

With that said- I still have this feeling that Mahomes is going blow things up.

I think the standard that we judge QB's now is going to change with these young guns coming in and more wide-open offenses. A 300-yard game will become the average and a 400-yard game will be the measuring stick of a great game.

All signs indicate that Reid is going to come out with something different the NFL has not seen before. It will take teams a while to adjust. Unless I am completely missing something with the signing of Sammy- this offense will be the best in Chiefs history (at least on paper). This is why I said less than 2 TD's a game seemed low. We saw Watson put up eye-popping numbers in Houston last year- I think Mahomes will so the same.

I am going on Record with these numbers:

31.33 completions per game X 16 games= 501.28 X 9.2 per attempt= 4612 Total passing yards.

63% completion on 49.73 attempts per game. 2.3 TD's per game X 16= 36.8 rounded up to 37 Total passing TD's

27 yards per game rushing X 16 games = 432 Total Rushing Yards

.04 Rushing TD's per game X 16 games= 4 Rushing TD's

.90 INTs per game X 16 = 14.5 rounded up to 15 INTs.

[RaidersOftheCellar]

Originally Posted by Halfcan

All signs indicate that Reid is going to come out with something different the NFL has not seen before. It will take teams a while to adjust.[/B]

What do you base this on?

[WhiteWhale]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Now you're just inviting someone to throw out Keesum's stats... he threw an INT ever 48 pass attempts while it was every 46 for Mahomes.

Did Denver sign the Vikings WR corps?

[Halfcan]

Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar

What do you base this on?

Mostly on how they came out last year, especially the first game against New England.

And how about spending that kind of money on bringing Sammy in. Mr. Veech said they have been targeting him since last year. Why? They must have a specific offense in mind and felt Sammy will be a key piece in it.

Lastly, Andy has talked about playing to Mahomes strengths, which is pushing the ball down the field in chunks of yards. We saw him design an offense to utilize Alex's strengths- I think we can expect it this year with Mahomes.

I just hope that Andy has a part 2 plan and makes adjustments when teams have film on Mahomes. He did not make adjustments last year and we went into a major slump on offense. I hope he learned something from that.

[ROYC75]

Originally Posted by AssEaterChief

Well not me....and I think it is a fairly moronic to assume anything about him at this point.

Even if he is good he will have growing pains...and this team won't be Super Bowl ready for at least two more seasons.

What that looks like statistically next season? I would hope he can manage something in the range of 3,500 yards 15-20 TDS and 8-12 INTs?

You do have a lot to learn so pay attention here.

Super Bowl ? Sure it's a long shot, but just saying That the Patriots wasn't expecting Tom Brady to win a SB when Bledsoe went down with an injury, so anything is possible, , but as I also mentioned, long shot.

4000 yards plus, this is easy. Look at his receivers, he is with the 1's, not back ups. The kid has so much talent, he is easily the most gifted QB KC has ever had. If he stays healthy, it's not a matter of if, but when he passes Lenny Dawson as the best in KC history.

Literally, the sky is the limit with this kid.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Halfcan, 5000 yards and 40 TDs or your disappointed?

[Naptown Chief]

Originally Posted by Pasta Giant Meatball

Halfcan, 5000 yards and 40 TDs or your disappointed?

If he's not at 5000 yards and 40 TDs by week 8 I'm furious and screaming for Henne.

[jjchieffan]

Originally Posted by Halfcan

Great post. I understand what you are saying- and I agree. If Mahomes wins 10 games with that tough schedule, puts up 4k in yards and 30 Td's, we win the West again and at least a playoff game- that would be an amazing 2nd year for him. Wins are the best stat.

With that said- I still have this feeling that Mahomes is going blow things up.

I think the standard that we judge QB's now is going to change with these young guns coming in and more wide-open offenses. A 300-yard game will become the average and a 400-yard game will be the measuring stick of a great game.

All signs indicate that Reid is going to come out with something different the NFL has not seen before. It will take teams a while to adjust. Unless I am completely missing something with the signing of Sammy- this offense will be the best in Chiefs history (at least on paper). This is why I said less than 2 TD's a game seemed low. We saw Watson put up eye-popping numbers in Houston last year- I think Mahomes will so the same.

I am going on Record with these numbers:

31.33 completions per game X 16 games= 501.28 X 9.2 per attempt= 4612 Total passing yards.

63% completion on 49.73 attempts per game. 2.3 TD's per game X 16= 36.8 rounded up to 37 Total passing TD's

27 yards per game rushing X 16 games = 432 Total Rushing Yards

.04 Rushing TD's per game X 16 games= 4 Rushing TD's Umm, that would be .25 TD's per game. .04x16=.64 or less than a TD per game

.90 INTs per game X 16 = 14.5 rounded up to 15 INTs.
Actually, 16x.9= 14.4, which would round down to 14

I'm a math geek. I looked at the numbers and these mistakes popped out at me. Funny thing is, that the hardest math was all right. It was the easy ones that you messed up. l

And don't get defensive. I'm just busting your chops a bit. Not trying to be a math nazi.

[Best22]

Originally Posted by Halfcan

Mostly on how they came out last year, especially the first game against New England.

And how about spending that kind of money on bringing Sammy in. Mr. Veech said they have been targeting him since last year. Why? They must have a specific offense in mind and felt Sammy will be a key piece in it.

Lastly, Andy has talked about playing to Mahomes strengths, which is pushing the ball down the field in chunks of yards. We saw him design an offense to utilize Alex's strengths- I think we can expect it this year with Mahomes.

I just hope that Andy has a part 2 plan and makes adjustments when teams have film on Mahomes. He did not make adjustments last year and we went into a major slump on offense. I hope he learned something from that.

Alex struggles to make adjustments. He wasn't that type of quarterback

Let's see what Mahomes can do

[Halfcan]

Originally Posted by jjchieffan

I'm a math geek. I looked at the numbers and these mistakes popped out at me. Funny thing is, that the hardest math was all right. It was the easy ones that you messed up. l

And don't get defensive. I'm just busting your chops a bit. Not trying to be a math nazi.

I broke the Cardinal rule- Always double check your numbers.

Math is not my friend.

[Halfcan]

Originally Posted by Pasta Giant Meatball

Halfcan, 5000 yards and 40 TDs or your disappointed?

No I just posted what I think Mahomes could do. Most of those averages are what he did in college, some are less and a few adjusted higher. He is a much better QB than he was two or three years ago. Mahomes will have his second training camp and preseason to develope a connection with his receivers. Plus we have a coach that loves to pass the ball.

I would be disappointed if we don't win the West again and at least a Playoff game. With so much talent on this team I think the Chiefs will be hard to beat.

[BlackHelicopters]

Mahomes is a bust.