Realistic expectations for Patrick Mahomes

[TimBone]

I know in the hearts of every planeteer, Mahomes has already led us to multiple Super Bowls, and that this whole career thing is just a formality before his HOF induction ceremony, but what is everyone realistically looking for from him this season?

Maybe I'm just letting my battered fan syndrome take over, but I feel like we need to pump the brakes a little bit. He looked solid against Denver, sure, but he's still just a second year guy that was pretty raw coming out of college.

So, what kind of numbers would everyone be happy with? What kind of things will you all be personally looking for from him?

Lastly, if you think I'm being a pussy and need to shut up and buckle up for the Mahomes show, please hit me with your best neg rep. The funnier the better.

[Ming the Merciless]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15

I just want to see him get better every week/learn from his mistakes.

If that happens, the stats will come.

this. full stop.

he will smash all chiefs records if he just keeps getting better

[stumppy]

I don't care what kind of numbers he puts up.

The only prediction I'll make is, we'll be pretty damn happy with our shiny new QB.

[Halfcan]

Originally Posted by Pawnmower

picking some arbitrary number is stupid

if he NEEDS to throw 2 TD a game he will try...but what if we dont need to? I seriously doubt one of the top 10 goals for mahomes is focusing on throwing 2 td per game

its much more fundamental than that - reads, audibles, mastering the playbook under stress, technical / mechanical improvements etc...


sure, he might throw 2 TD a game and break the KC record for TD's by a QB.

hell if he doesnt do it this year i bet he will do it at some point...but I dont think youre correct in saying that is expected of him

edit: and fine he has played in 1 game...so he isnt a rookie .but this is his 1st season as the starter......so show me this list of guys who have played in 1 game or less and then get 4400 yards in their 1st season as starter...is it a pretty long list of QB's? I heard marino did it in 1984 ...but he started 10 games the year prior

I think Mahomes is going to HAVE to throw at least 2 TD's a game for us to win. I don't expect the defense to hold teams under 20 a game- look at our schedule.

And once again- whatever QB's did in the past has no bearing on Mahomes this year.

[Mile High Mania]

Gonna go out on a limb... more career wins than losses.

[Best22]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Gonna go out on a limb... more career wins than losses.

A shitton more

[Easy 6]

Originally Posted by -King-

Favres TD% was 5 and INT% was 3.3
Rodgers TD% is 6.4 and INT% is 1.6


That's not even something you can spin by talking about era differences.
Posted via Mobile Device

This will be my last post on the subject since we're hijacking the hell out of Tims thread, but I'm not have you tell me in no uncertain terms that Rodgers is better

And yes, I can spin the era differences... only one of those players came up during the 'Manning Rules' era, and it wasnt Brett Favre

You're welcome to your opinion, as its an argument no one can win, just like its impossible to say Montana meant more than Johnny U... its likewise impossible to say Rodgers > Favre

My guess is its largely a generational thing, you're likely in your 20s-30s and have watched more Rodgers, where I'm creeping up on 50 and watched more Favre

Sorry Tim, its my last post on this

[EricBerryBoom]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Gonna go out on a limb... more career wins than losses.

Not that I disagree, but that'd be a team expectation more than a Mahomes expectation.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Halfcan

This is lighting it up?

Less than 300 ypg average. 1.8 Td's a game with 1.2 Int average.

Kinda shitty really.

Umm... I shouldn't even respond to this but I will...

4400 yards would have put him 4th in the NFL in 2017.
29 TD's would have tied him for 4th in the NFL in 2017.
I feel like I"m going full homer just by thinking he will get anywhere near those numbers, when history says it's highly unlikely.

19 INTs are only 4 more than Peyton Manning threw in his 2nd season and 9 less than he threw his rookie year. Dan Marino, even in his epic 2nd season, threw 17 picks. Drew Brees, who played in only 1 game as a rookie as well, threw 16 picks. The list goes on.

Point is, even some of the better QBs of the past 20 years have had to learn the hard way. This kid is a risk taker and he's likely going to throw quite a few picks his first year out the gate.

If I were looking more at history and less at how I feel about this kid's abilities, I'd probably have him around 3500 yards, 20 tds and 17 ints as a best-case scenario. I chose instead to go full homer.

If you're expecting some crazy shit like 4700 yards, 35 tds and 10 ints in year 1, I think you ought to temper your expectations.

[Ming the Merciless]

Originally Posted by Halfcan

whatever QB's did in the past has no bearing on Mahomes this year.

umm

ok lil chiefy

"history doesn't matter"

nevermind the list of QB's who have gotten 4400 yards and 30 td in their 1st starting season is about 1 line long

[TimBone]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15

I just want to see him get better every week/learn from his mistakes.

If that happens, the stats will come.

This is the kind of answer I was hoping to see. I believe there are going to be more mistakes than people realize....and from the perceived expectations of this place, it doesn't seem as though there will be much patience.

[saphojunkie]

Originally Posted by TimBone

This is the kind of answer I was hoping to see. I believe there are going to be more mistakes than people realize....and from the perceived expectations of this place, it doesn't seem as though there will be much patience.

Yes, but with getting better will come statistics. He isn't throwing for zero yards and zero touchdowns.

I'm going to put my official guess down at:

3742 yards
31 TDs
13 INTs
11-5 overall record
Makes playoffs

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

I predict higher ratings.

MUCH higher.

[RunKC]

With the weapons we have and the sheer amount of passes this kid is going to throw in this offense, I would be surprised if he threw less than 30 TD’s.

But that means more INT’s too.

[Lightrise]

After thoroughly watching college tape this kid just has superstar ability. I'm counting on the new OC to light a fire under the feet of the OL and make those guys play better. If he accomplishes that I think we contend this year, and that's praying the draft goes well. The draft won't go the way I'd prefer, getting either the G Hernandez or Billy Price, then Ian Thomas TE in the 3rd and best available DB using next years 2nd in the Peters trade to get where we need to for another CB or Safety. Then I'm hoping we can pluck some more DB's from other practice squads for depth. I am open to linebacker depth with the 4th rounder picks and more OL help in the 6th round.

My biggest concern is how many drives Harris ruins if he isn't replaced. Also, I'm not a Bailey fan so something has to happen there.

Bottom line is Mahomes is going to do well THIS season. How much we win really depends on the others.

[Coogs]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Umm... I shouldn't even respond to this but I will...

4400 yards would have put him 4th in the NFL in 2017.
29 TD's would have tied him for 4th in the NFL in 2017.
I feel like I"m going full homer just by thinking he will get anywhere near those numbers, when history says it's highly unlikely.

19 INTs are only 4 more than Peyton Manning threw in his 2nd season and 9 less than he threw his rookie year. Dan Marino, even in his epic 2nd season, threw 17 picks. Drew Brees, who played in only 1 game as a rookie as well, threw 16 picks. The list goes on.

Point is, even some of the better QBs of the past 20 years have had to learn the hard way. This kid is a risk taker and he's likely going to throw quite a few picks his first year out the gate.

If I were looking more at history and less at how I feel about this kid's abilities, I'd probably have him around 3500 yards, 20 tds and 17 ints as a best-case scenario. I chose instead to go full homer.

If you're expecting some crazy shit like 4700 yards, 35 tds and 10 ints in year 1, I think you ought to temper your expectations.

The thing is though that he has already proven he can throw an Interception and still win. That's huge. Even had us out to a 14 point lead before that was given away by Bray.

If Smith turned it over... even once... there was a better than 50% chance we were going to lose. I posted the numbers on it once, so I know that is correct.