Patriots @ Broncos - who wins?

[Mile High Mania]

Tex, Pasta, others... don't worry, this isn't a divisional preview.

Since the outcome of this game weighs heavy on some of your plans for KC running the table and supplanting Denver as the divisional winner, I figured I would start this thread to be the place for all the game chatter this week.

In another thread, Amnorix and I both have stated that neither of us expects our team to win this one... he gives NE a 50/50 chance thanks in large part to the OL and injuries. And, I get it. I had this pegged as a "very winnable" game with a healthy Peyton Manning, but that was well before 9 TD / 17 INT Manning reared his ugly head.

Brock gets the start and that's never a good thing for a young guy against this coach and that QB. Location and the Denver defense gives me reason for hope, but the Patriots have a sweet defense as well and as long as they have Tom Brady and the Gronk - they can win.

The Broncos should have Sanders back and offensively, they have a lot of options with DT, Sanders, Daniels, Davis, Hillman, Anderson (among others) - they're deep. Question is, how will the Patriots game plan to stop Kubiak's offense. It won't be a mystery really, but they don't have much to go on with Brock... however, they'll be ready and they'll give him fits.

And, they're still undefeated... they're a pretty good team. Overall, Brady is 5-5 vs Denver and has a losing record in Denver (I believe)... again, nothing more than just historical reference there.

I've gone back and forth on scores and while you can call it reverse mojo, it's not ... but I think the Patriots win this one 23-17.

I do think that Brock enters this game with less pressure than last week @ Chicago, only because it's my belief that the team 'hoped' they could win this game with a healthy Manning and that's not possible... so Brock, has lower expectations (hopefully).

So, since this is critical to KC's drive to reach 10/11 wins and knock Denver from the lead... what are the thoughts from the KC faithful?

Enjoy...

[eDave]

Pats didn't look great last night. We'll see how good Brock Star is.

[OctoberFart]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

Deflategate is bullshit spun out of the fact that nobody at the NFL understood that the Ideal Gas Law even existed, nor did it affect any games won by the Patriots.

But hey, nice try!

Amazing how the ideal gas law only affected one teams balls. Even though Tuck rule was a rule, Brady fumbled that ball in that game. He was trying to tuck it away when he was stripped. Tuck rule is supposed to be when ball comes out on a pump fake not that BS that happened.

[MahiMike]

I'm going Broncos here. The injury tipping point for the pats plus game in Denver is the edge here.

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by OctoberFart

Amazing how the ideal gas law only affected one teams balls.

First, you seem to be suggesting that a LAW OF PHYSICS did NOT affect the Colts balls. Yeah, that makes sense! Did you even think of what you were saying before you said it?

Second, you won't bother, but here is a lengthy presentation by a Eagles fan, and MIT scientist, explaining how the Patriots balls were in line with the ideal gas law, and the Colts balls were higher due to the fact that the Patriots balls were tested first upon return to the locker room.

http://people.csail.mit.edu/jleonard...ate_final2.pdf


Since you won't read it, here's a portion of the summary:

Summary:

• Patriots balls match the Ideal Gas Law Prediction

• Agreement is well within the measurement accuracy of the gauges used and other unknowns

• Instead of asking why the Pats balls were too low, the question is why the Colts balls were too high?

• Simple explanation (AEI): Pats balls measured at the start of halftime while the Colts balls were measured at end of halftime (after warming up)

• The lower PSI levels are further explained by the effect of wetness (volume increase) and wind (evaporative cooling) on the Pats balls, and also the effect of the balls being kept in a bag before being measured (M. Greenway)

Conclusion

• Based on extensive study of all the data and analyses that I can find, I am convinced that no deflation occurred and the Patriots are innocent

• The underlying physics are simple, yet the simplicity was obscured by a needlessly complex and biased analysis

• There are numerous flaws in Exponent’s methodology and its report

1 Even though Tuck rule was a rule, Brady fumbled that ball in that game. He was trying to tuck it away when he was stripped. Tuck rule is supposed to be when ball comes out on a pump fake not that BS that happened.

Yeah, that was part of the point of the tuck rule. It was designed to REMOVE ambiguity and decision-making and "intent". That's why it existed in the first place. They subsequently eliminated the rule, but don't pretend that the Pats/Raiders playoff game is the only time it was ever called. It had been around for quite a while before then, and lasted for a good number of years afterwards.

Hatin' bitches gotta hate.

[Mile High Mania]

Not this rabbit hole...

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by MahiMike

I'm going Broncos here. The injury tipping point for the pats plus game in Denver is the edge here.

I want to believe in that as well... it would put the entire fandom on a Brocky Mountain High. (rock me)

[MagicHef]

A lot of our defensive success has depended on the ability to rotate players often. I don't see why Brady and Belechick would allow us to continue to do that.

[Mile High Mania]

They'll probably be tight lipped on Amendola all week... but with the depleted weapons, it makes it easier for Denver to key in on Gronk and focus on pressuring Brady.

Third down conversions have dropped the last 3 weeks as they've lost key players. 9/16 three weeks ago, 7/14 two weeks ago and 4/14 last night. That's significant, but despite that - they're still scoring TDs (3, 3, 2 respectively).

Brady will get his yards - I think he's averaging 280 or so ... but what can they do rushing the ball this week? That's critical.

Wade has to get that defense dialed up to take Gronk out of the planning... that isn't done consistently, but with limited options - I'm all for them sticking 2 of their best on him. Let Jaleel White (or whatever his name is) get open a time or two, just don't let Gronk beat you on critical downs.

Amendola grabbed 19 of his 23 targets in the last 2 games, filling in admirably for Edleman. If he is out - that's massive.

I can't recall, but LaFell was hurt too right? Either way, he's an ok guy, but not a ball breaker without help to open things up.

Blount will get all the carries, bottle him up... if Ware is back (crossing fingers), then they can really dial it up in this game.

I'm eagerly awaiting Sunday night... expecting the worst, but eagerly waiting. If it were any other team and any other QB, I'd say Denver wins this one.

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

They'll probably be tight lipped on Amendola all week... but with the depleted weapons, it makes it easier for Denver to key in on Gronk and focus on pressuring Brady.

Third down conversions have dropped the last 3 weeks as they've lost key players. 9/16 three weeks ago, 7/14 two weeks ago and 4/14 last night. That's significant, but despite that - they're still scoring TDs (3, 3, 2 respectively).

Brady will get his yards - I think he's averaging 280 or so ... but what can they do rushing the ball this week? That's critical.

Wade has to get that defense dialed up to take Gronk out of the planning... that isn't done consistently, but with limited options - I'm all for them sticking 2 of their best on him. Let Jaleel White (or whatever his name is) get open a time or two, just don't let Gronk beat you on critical downs.

Amendola grabbed 19 of his 23 targets in the last 2 games, filling in admirably for Edleman. If he is out - that's massive.

I can't recall, but LaFell was hurt too right? Either way, he's an ok guy, but not a ball breaker without help to open things up.

Blount will get all the carries, bottle him up... if Ware is back (crossing fingers), then they can really dial it up in this game.

I'm eagerly awaiting Sunday night... expecting the worst, but eagerly waiting. If it were any other team and any other QB, I'd say Denver wins this one.

LaFell is back, and playing his way slowly back into usefulness. He missed ALL of the preseason -- training camp, OTAs, preseason, everything, so it's like August for him in terms of conditioning, timing, etc. His impact so far this year has been minimal. He should be much more effective come the playoffs.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

LaFell is back, and playing his way slowly back into usefulness. He missed ALL of the preseason -- training camp, OTAs, preseason, everything, so it's like August for him in terms of conditioning, timing, etc. His impact so far this year has been minimal. He should be much more effective come the playoffs.

Yeah, like I said... I'm cautiously optimistic, but expecting the Patriots to pull out the win. Mentally, I'm in self-preservation mode the rest of the way. I wasn't expecting a SB win this season... hopeful, but not expecting.

They were winning in spite of Manning's performance and now they're sitting at 8-2. Thankfully, Brock didn't fall on his ass in Chicago, so he gives me some optimism that he can lead the offense that Kubiak wants now.

Worst case, they still enter the playoffs, likely as the 3 seed and they have a decision to make at QB at that time or possibly before.

Win or lose, I'm not going to freak out this week. If Denver cannot beat this Patriots team with their injuries, then it just wasn't supposed to happen. It's a long time until the playoffs, they have some things to work out and a lot of nice players on both sides of the ball.

If they can beat the Patriots - then party on, Wayne and it's on to the Chargers and Raiders, both games they 'should' win.

8-3 or 9-2, either one works fine for me after this weekend.

[Mile High Mania]

And, with Thanksgiving around the corner... I'll be away a bit. As should most of you, go find your family and friends and enjoy yourselves.

All the trash talk and noise aside, I hope you all have a Happy Thanksgiving - if you're traveling, be safe. If you're partying, call a cab or an Uber.

Take care.

[Bwana]

Pats

[Toby Waller]

Add a poll

[Toby Waller]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

And, with Thanksgiving around the corner... I'll be away a bit. As should most of you, go find your family and friends and enjoy yourselves.

All the trash talk and noise aside, I hope you all have a Happy Thanksgiving - if you're traveling, be safe. If you're partying, call a cab or an Uber.

Take care.

same to you. It appears I cant give reputation either

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

A lot of our defensive success has depended on the ability to rotate players often. I don't see why Brady and Belechick would allow us to continue to do that.

They, uhh, won't, most likely.

But this isn't 4 weeks ago. Back then I think they would've done about the same as they did against Buffalo on you. Five wide, and let you figure out how to deal with Gronk/Edelman/Amendola/Lewis/whoever and how to get to Brady within 2 seconds by which point he has released the ball. Soon your pass rush is gassed and feeling depressed because 2 seconds isn't enough time to do anything.

Now, we can't get guys open nearly as fast, Brady has to hold the ball longer, which gives the pass rush more of a chance, etc. etc.