Early Mock 1/13 Edition

[kccrow]

Offseason Plan

Spoiler!

Release (incl. Waive/Retirement/Trade/Option)

Nick Foles (QB) - Do not pick up option year (+$10,750,000) - Unless the Chiefs think Foles will take over for Smith, there's no reason to keep him on the roster at that type of price tag. The Chiefs won't pick up that option. They may let it expire and re-sign Foles, but even that seems unlikely.
Jamaal Charles (RB) - Trade for 2018 conditional draft pick (+$7,000,000) - Charles is getting old and those injuries are a factor. If he can show he's got something left by season's end, I think the Chiefs move him and $7 million off the books for some type of compensation. If not, he's going to have to take a significant pay cut or be cut.
Josh Mauga (ILB) - Release (+3,000,000) - Mauga has been oft injured the past 2 seasons and is going to be 30. It's time to move on with youth at the position.
Jah Reid (OL) - Release (+$2,075,000) - Reid became insurance after the Chiefs signed Mitchell Schwartz, and Reid hasn't even seen much action with all of the injuries at guard. His salary is needed elsewhere.
Derrick Johnson (ILB) - Expected Retirement (+2,250,000) - A second Achilles tear likely means the end for DJ. While he may be optimistic, I'm not. He's already lost a step and another Achilles is just too much to overcome. He's toast.
Tamba Hali (OLB) - Expected Retirement (-333,334) - Hali has clearly lost a step and hasn't been productive this season. He wants to go out being remembered as a good player. He's done.

Allow to Walk

Albert Wilson (WR) - Lackluster play and the ascention of Tyreek Hill as a rookie makes Wilson easily expendable. A RFA tender is too much to pay for his services in my opinion.
Kendall Reyes (DL) - Chris Jones and Rakeem Nunez-Roches are developing nicely. Dorsey will likely look to add more young depth.
Bishop Sankey (RB) - A backup plan to a backup plan, so unless he makes some significant contribution he's out.
Mike Person (OG) - Not a contributor.
Trey Millard (FB) - Not a contributor.
Kenny Cook (WR) - Not a contributor.

Re-Sign

Eric Berry (S) - 5-years $60,000,000 with $28,000,000 guaranteed at signing ($17,000,000 signing bonus).

Estimated cap figures: 2017 - $7.60 m ($4.00 guaranteed base), 2018 - $10.60 m ($7.00 guaranteed base), 2019 - $13.60 m, 2020, $13.60 m, 2021 - $14.60 m

Tryann Mathieu agreed to a 5-year, $62.5 million extension a year ago ($12.5 m/yr w/ $21.25 m guaranteed at signing) to stay with the Cardinals, so that is likely the precedent that Berry's camp will follow. Like with most negotiations, it isn't always the total or average money of the contract, but the guaranteed money. Berry's contract would come in second in average at $12.0 m per, but he'd receive the most guaranteed of any safety to date. Berry is one of the primary leaders on the defense, so his retention is of paramount importance.

Dontari Poe (NT) - 5-years $47,000,000 with $21,000,000 guaranteed at signing ($9,000,000 signing bonus)

Estimated cap figures: 2017 - $6.00 m ($4.00 of guaranteed base), 2018 - $10.00 m ($8.00 of guaranteed base), 2019 - $10.00 m, 2020 - $10.00 m, 2021 - 11.00 m

Damon Harrison signed a 5-year $46.25 million deal ($9,250,000/year w/$20 m guaranteed at signing) to go from the Jets to the Giants a year ago, and Poe is every bit as good of a player. It stands to reason that Poe will receive at least a comparable contract. The question would become what teams would forcast him becoming in a 4-3 where he could put more pressure on the QB. With seasons including 4.5 and 6.0 sacks as a NT in a 3-4, teams would likely bet on him being a guy capable of 8+ sacks in a 1-gap scheme, which would put him in the upper echelon of DTs. For those reasons, Poe's value could rise much higher than Harrison's. A good NT is the most essential piece to running a quality 3-4 defense, and the Chiefs have the NFL's best in Dontari Poe. Poe is a must sign.

Dustin Colquitt (P) - 5-year, $20,350,000 Extension, converting $4,000,000 of 2017 money to a signing bonus and guaranteeing another 1,150,000 in 2017 salary and 2,400,000 in 2018 salary for a total of $7.55 million guaranteed.

Estimated cap figures: 2017 - $2.80 m, 2018 - $3.25 m, 2019 - $3.25 m, 2020 - $3.65 m, 2021 - $4.05 m, 2022 - -$4.15 m

Colquitt is an easy conversion of cap funding this season through either cut or extension. In this case the Chiefs gain $2.1 million in cap space and maintain Colquitt as one of the highest paid punters in the league as well as having the most guaranteed money through the end of his career.

Daniel Sorensen (SS) - 1-year RFA original round tender of $1,671,000
James Winchester (LS) - 1-year ERFA tender of $615,000
Cairo Santos (K) - 1-year RFA original round tender of $1,671,000

Resulting Cap Liabilities: $158,212,679 (versus projected $166,000,000 cap = $7,787,321 cap space, plus potential $5.6 m in rollover from 2016)

Draft

1. Raekwon McMillan, ILB, Ohio State (6'2" 243)
McMillan is a well built, NFL ready linebacker that is a plug up the middle of the defense. McMillan may not be a superior sideline-to-sideline speed freak like Ryan Shazier or Darron Lee coming out of OSU, but he's got solid speed and really improved his coverage play in 2016. McMillan has proven he certainly has enough speed to get to the corner and cut off outside stretch plays and screens, especially as a 3-4 ILB or 4-3 SOLB. McMillan's strength, however, is stacking and shedding blockers and playing North-South in run defense. McMillan comes down hill in a hurry, and normally with plenty of thump to go with it. McMillan is well respected as a team leader and community role model, and he is the defensive captain. McMillan plays smart and he is a film rat, which bodes well for his NFL prospects. A very similar player to James Laurinaitis coming out. Losing Mauga and Johnson in the same season proved that its time the Chiefs make a serious investment at ILB.

2. Vincent Taylor, DT, Oklahoma State (6'3" 310)
Taylor is a stout, yet athletic and disruptive, defensive lineman with the ability to play inside or out in a 3-4 front. The Junior First-Team All-Big 12 defender has made a habit of getting into opponents backfields over the past two seasons and his unique blend of size and athleticism should allow him to continue to do so in the NFL. With Dontari Poe a potential free agent, Jaye Howard having 1 year left on his deal, and key depth players hitting free agency as well, the Chiefs very well could be looking early and often for help on the defensive line.

3. Hunter Dimick, DE (OLB), Utah (6'3" 266)
Dimick reminds me of a young Tamba Hali with decent speed, good strength, outstanding technique, and a motor that just doesn't shut down. Dimick led the PAC-12 in sacks in 2016 and was a force to be reckoned with against the run and pass in every single game. If not for an injury that set him back in 2015, Dimick would likely be talked about as a 1st round selection. Dimick's production in games played speaks for itself, and his non-stop, lunch-pail attitude will be extremely enticing to NFL talent evaluators. With injuries decimating the Chiefs' pass rushers the past couple of seasons, it is imperative that KC continues to employ three productive edge players. With Hali slowing down and ready to call it in and no real depth behind him, the Chiefs will have to add at least one edge defender to their stable.

3. Marlon Mack, RB, South Florida (5'11" 205) (Projected Comp - Sean Smith, CB)
Mack is a virtual clone of Jamaal Charles when he played at Texas, and the Chiefs might do well to try and strike gold twice by taking the lightning quick, slashing back in the third round. Mack has the agility to cut on a dime when he sees a crease and the speed to take it to the house on any play, an element that's been sorely lacking in the Chiefs run game since Charles has been out of the lineup. Mack, like Charles, is also an extremely versatile weapon out of the backfield with really good hands and open field ability. Mack is also an excellent pass blocker for a smaller player. With it extremely likely the Chiefs release Charles due to salary, they'll need to add another back.

4. Nathan Peterman, QB, Pittsburgh (6'2" 225)
Peterman isn't every man's QB, but he's a steady and improving player with NFL promise. Peterman checks alot of boxes for pro teams given that he stands in the pocket and makes the throws NFL QBs need to make. Peterman stands up to pressure and extends plays with his athleticism, and he trusts himself to deliver on target. Peterman throws for a solid average and solid completion percentage, plus he has a rock solid touchdown to interception ratio. Peterman, unlike many of his counterparts, operates frequently from pro sets. Peterman also makes quick decisions, gets the ball out quickly, and just doesn't make many stupid mistakes. Basically, Peterman is going to remind many of Alex Smith but he has a shot at being a Kirk Cousins. He may never be a big-time NFL quarterback but Peterman has a solid shot becoming a starter in his career, and, even if he doesn't, you'll probably get a solid backup for a 4th round pick.

5. Chad Hansen, WR, California (6'3" 205)
Hansen is really a prototypical WCO receiver in that he has solid size, good speed, excellent hands, and he has really good quickness in his breaks. Hansen has grown into a bit of a Jordy Nelson type with excellent body control and the ability to go up and make tough catches. The kid will get knocked for playing in the Air Raid and not having years of eye-popping stats, but he's a late bloomer to keep an eye on. The Chief may need to add a receiver or two in this draft given the lack of overall depth. Albert Wilson is a restricted free agent, and the price of his tender may be too much to be worth keeping around. De'Anthony Thomas hasn't done anything to really warrant a roster spot and the Chiefs haven't given Demarcus Robinson any looks as a rookie.

5. Levon Myers, OT, Northern Illinois (6'5" 309) (Projected Comp - Chase Daniel, QB)
Myers is a solid tackle prospect with decent footwork and strength along with a good build. Although Myers manned the left side at NIU, he may not have enough lateral quickness to remain there in the NFL, but his abilities seem to translate solidly to the right side. Myers has a nasty streak to him, often finishing blocks with knockdowns. Myers always plays through the whistle and is a solid run blocker. If things didn't work out on the right side, Myers shows the strength and mindset to move inside to guard, where he could use his brawler mentality even more so. The Chiefs really need to continue to try to bolster the trenches. I don't expect John Dorsey to spend a ton of draft capital on offensive lineman at this juncture, but I would expect him to bring guys in that can be backup caliber and push starters for playing time at guard. I think Myers checks the boxes of having right tackle backup ability, but could push to start at left guard.

6. Scott Orndoff, TE, Pittsburgh (6'5" 265) (Projected Comp - Donald Stephenson, OT)
Orndoff isn't a guy that's going to wow you with speed or spectacular catches like Travis Kelce, but he's proven he can get down the field and catch the football and is especially solid in the red zone. Orndoff's real strength comes in his blocking ability, something the Chiefs really lack in their depth tight ends. Orndoff is kind of an Anthony Fasano type, nothing flashy but pretty darn solid all-around. Demetrius Harris has been less of an asset than a liability on several occassions this season, and his contract value is a little steep for what he actually provides. Ross Travis is an athletic receiving type and James O'Shaughnessy seems to commit a false start every time he takes the field. It may be a good time to try and strengthen this group with a better blocker in the mix and push the young guys.

6. Ben Braden, OG/T, Michigan (6'5" 331) (Projected Comp - Tyvon Branch, SS)
Braden is an athletic player with good strength and decent fundamentals. Extremely versatile player, having bounced around the line and ending up as the guy at left tackle in 2016. Braden looks best on the interior where he can use his strength and athleticism to his advantage. He doesn't appear to have the requisite lateral agility to stay out at tackle in the NFL, but has plenty enough ability to be a pulling guard. The Chiefs have to continue bolstering the trenches, and depth has been an issue on the interior the past few seasons. Quality depth with movement skills would be a welcome addition.

7. Treyvon Hester, DT, Toledo (6'3" 300)
Hester is a good sized tackle with disruptive traits, especially a quick first step off the snap. Hester is routinely double and triple-teamed on the front line, so his stat lines don't look gaudy. Looks like a bit quicker version of Jaye Howard. Needs some work on maintaining his area discipline and play recognition, but his motor doesn't seem to stop. Plays with more of a defensive end mentality than a defensive tackle. Certainly looks like a guy that can be developed as depth along the defensive front, where KC will likely need to add pieces this offseason.

Roster

QB: A. Smith, T. Bray, N. Peterman
RB: S. Ware, C. West, M. Mack
FB: A. Sherman
WR: J. Maclin, C. Conley, T. Hill, C. Hansen, D. Robinson, D. Thomas
TE: T. Kelce, D. Harris, S. Orndoff, R. Travis, J. O'Shaughnessy
OL: E. Fisher, M. Schwartz, L. Myers, B. Witzmann
OG: L. Duvernay-Tardiff, P. Ehinger, B. Braden
OC: M. Morse, Z. Fulton
DE: C. Jones, J. Howard, A. Bailey, R. Nunez-Roches, V. Taylor, T. Hester
NT: D. Poe
OLB: J. Houston, D. Ford, H. Dimick, V. Ochi, F. Zombo, D. Nicholas
ILB: R. McMillan, R. Wilson, J. March, D. Alexander, T. Smith
CB: M. Peters, T. Mitchell, P. Gaines, S. Nelson, D. White, K. Acker
FS: R. Parker, E. Murray
SS: E. Berry, D. Sorensen
ST: C. Santos, D. Colquitt, J. Winchester

[Bowser]

Looks like a very Dorsey-like draft. I am one of those idiots that hopes we take a shot at Christian McCaffrey or Dalvin Cook if they're still there with our first, but I see the glaring need at ILB for this team, as well. The DE pick is a bit curious given our depth, I'd go guard/CB/WR there.

I would like it if they could find a way to keep Kendell Reyes. I think the guy has flashed a few times in the opportunities he's had.

[RunKC]

Hard to see Dorsey pull the trigger on an ILB rd 1. I would actually say that it has about a 10% chance of happening bc of 2 reasons:

-Dorsey and his former colleagues just don't place ILB as a high enough value for rd 1.
-Dorsey loves him some Justin March.

Wouldn't mind McMillan though.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Hard to see Dorsey pull the trigger on an ILB rd 1. I would actually say that it has about a 10% chance of happening bc of 2 reasons:

-Dorsey and his former colleagues just don't place ILB as a high enough value for rd 1.
-Dorsey loves him some Justin March.

Wouldn't mind McMillan though.

Well, you're already wrong on 1 of those.

John Dorsey was Director of College Scouting for the Packers when they drafted Nick Barnett out of Cal in the 1st round (29th overall) of the 2003 draft and A.J. Hawk out of Ohio State in the 1st round (5th overall) of the 2006 draft.

As for Justin March, well, we'll see about how that works out.

[kcchiefsus]

I'd rather spend that 4th on someone who will contribute to the team. Until we decide to actually invest a high pick at QB I'd rather address other areas.

[BryanBusby]

meh

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by kcchiefsus

I'd rather spend that 4th on someone who will contribute to the team. Until we decide to actually invest a high pick at QB I'd rather address other areas.

What veteran QB are you bringing in?

[Chief Northman]

Jeepers, if Dalvin Cook is available at 27 you freaking take him.

Jamaal 2.0

Game changer.