*** Official Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals Game Thread (5/3) ***

[alnorth]

Final	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
DET (17-9)	0	1	0	3	2	0	0	0	0	6	11	0
KC (16-9)	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	4	6	1

Win, (2-3) Anibal Sanchez 7⅓IP 3R 3ER 1BB 4K
Tom Gorzelanny ⅔IP 1R 1ER 0BB 1K
Save, (10) Joakim Soria 1IP 0R 0ER 0BB 0K

VS.



Loss, (1-2) Jeremy Guthrie 6IP 6R 6ER 0BB 1K 1HR
Brandon Finnegan 2IP 0R 0ER 1BB 3K
Kelvin Herrera 1IP 0R 0ER 0BB 1K

Home Runs

DET

Miguel Cabrera, (6) - Top 5th 2-run homer

KC

none

AL Central

Final: TOR 7, CLE 10
Final: CWS 3, MIN 13

DET

1. Anthony Gose, CF
2. Ian Kinsler, 2B
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Victor Martinez, DH
5. J.D. Martinez, RF
6. Yoenis Cespedes, LF
7. Alex Avila, C
8. Nick Castellanos, 3B
8. Hernan Perez, 3B
9. Jose Iglesias, SS

KC

1. Alex Gordon, LF
2. Mike Moustakas, 3B
3. Kendrys Morales, DH
4. Eric Hosmer, 1B
5. Salvador Perez, C
6. Omar Infante, 2B
7. Paulo Orlando, RF
8. Jarrod Dyson, CF
9. Christian Colon, SS

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

We killed it already? Shit.



200 league-average innings (which is what the Royals have basically gotten from Guthrie over the past 2.5 seasons) is a valuable thing. Not incredibly valuable, but it does hold value, especially from a back-end rotation spot. If you're getting 200 league-average innings from the last starter in your rotation - what Guthrie is - you're in pretty good shape.

Now, of course, Guthrie has not been league average or anything close to it. He's got to pick things up quickly or be at risk of getting Pipped by Chris Young, in my opinion. Guthrie is a good guy and well-respected in the clubhouse. They'll give him some rope. I hope it isn't too much.

Speaking of that, yesterday is one of those classic "hindsight" games. In hindsight, you wish they'd pulled Guthrie before the inning he gave up the bomb to Cabrera. But I'm not going to complain about trying to get through a few more innings when already down 4-0 against a pitcher who has been perfect through 4 innings.

Still like seeing the team battle back through the deficit to make that so close yesterday, though.

Think about this: The Royals are 7 games over .500 and playing .640 baseball, and that's WITH the suspensions and having had Alex Rios miss 3 weeks already.

That hardly seems real.

Need to win this series against the Indians and get a little hot.

I did like your "Pipped" line.


We can disagree on Guts I guess. FG had 88 starters qualified by IP last year. Guts was 76th best FIP. His defense behind him made his numbers look way better than he really is.


(Alarming factoid of the day: dead last at 88: Chris Young)

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

I did like your "Pipped" line.


We can disagree on Guts I guess. FG had 88 starters qualified by IP last year. Guts was 76th best FIP. His defense behind him made his numbers look way better than he really is.


(Alarming factoid of the day: dead last at 88: Chris Young)

We always do. Because FIP has a big hole in its methodology for fly ball pitchers. It would be one thing if Guthrie had very little time in the majors, but we're talking about a decade and a few thousand innings of work here.

Guthrie has outperformed his FIP by half a run over the course of his career, and has outperformed it every season of his career (the closest he has come was within 0.15 in 2011, when he was still JUST below a league-average pitcher according to ERA+ at 97).

He has outperformed FIP by about a half run since becoming a Royal (3.92 ERA vs. 4.53 FIP).

At some point, the track record becomes deep enough that you either have to take the FIP stat with a grain of salt or ignore real life results.

His velocity is down a little this spring (an MPH on his 4-seam fastball). Now, that means 1 of 3 things to me:

1) He's hurt
2) He's suffering spring dead arm (common among starting pitchers)
3) He's starting to lose it

Whatever the reason, if he doesn't start to turn it around soon, the Royals will have to make a move, especially if Chris Young continues to be so effective.

[ChiTown]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

We always do. Because FIP has a big hole in its methodology for fly ball pitchers. It would be one thing if Guthrie had very little time in the majors, but we're talking about a decade and a few thousand innings of work here.

Guthrie has outperformed his FIP by half a run over the course of his career, and has outperformed it every season of his career (the closest he has come was within 0.15 in 2011, when he was still JUST below a league-average pitcher according to ERA+ at 97).

He has outperformed FIP by about a half run since becoming a Royal (3.92 ERA vs. 4.53 FIP).

At some point, the track record becomes deep enough that you either have to take the FIP stat with a grain of salt or ignore real life results.

His velocity is down a little this spring (an MPH on his 4-seam fastball). Now, that means 1 of 3 things to me:

1) He's hurt
2) He's suffering spring dead arm (common among starting pitchers)
3) He's starting to lose it

Whatever the reason, if he doesn't start to turn it around soon, the Royals will have to make a move, especially if Chris Young continues to be so effective.

I hope it's only one move, as Vargy has been pretty bad as well. He's averaging less than 5 innings per outing and is sporting a 1.72 WHIP.

[Hootie]

Meh.

I'd give Chris Young another start while Yordano is serving his suspension and if he lights it up you keep him in the rotation and let Vargas/Guthrie battle it out for the 5th spot.

But let's be real here. Last year before the postseason there were many posters who wanted to bench Moose and start Colon at 3rd (laughable). Then, people wanted a GG 1st baseman to ride the bench and potentially DH so Billy could play 1st since he "hits better" while playing in the field (nonsense).

And just this year people were talking about benching ALEX GORDON so Paulo Orlando could get more at bats. After 5 games and a few triples. And I hate to say this, but Paulo (I like the guy) is pretty much garbage.

Guthrie really didn't pitch terribly against Detroit. They just singled us to death. Terrible pitching conditions as well. It's just funny that people expect him to be a staff ace. Not gonna happen. He's our #5. 5 or 6 innings, 2-3 runs, good enough. Pretty much the same with Vargas. It is what it is.

NOW

when we're back at full strength and have Madson / Frasor / Herrera / Davis and Holland with Morales/Pino/Hochevar as well ... WE SHOULD START TELLING GUTS/VARGAS THEY GET 5 INNINGS, AND IF THE GAME IS WITHIN 2 OR 3 RUNS AT THAT POINT, IT'S BULLPEN TIME.

I'm tired of this nonsense about not using the bullpen because it's May. Or April. Last year we had HDH and then total GARBAGE behind them. Of course we needed 7 innings out of our starters. This year we've added 4 HOT arms that have been giving lineup fits ... there is simply no reason not to use them in starts by our #4 and #5. Seriously. First 2 weeks of the season when we had HDH we couldn't even find any innings for Madson. And we still have Hoch chilling in AAA. And Morales and Pino have been pretty good, too ... so would you rather give them a fresh 6 or let Guthrie pitch a 3rd time through a lineup?

[Prison Bitch]

"5 or 6 innings, 2-3 runs, good enough"



-yes! That's a 4.06 era. These two chumps are 6.25 between them