David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes"

[Deberg_1990]

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.



The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday.

I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback.

Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1).

Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season.

September: 92.0
October: 111.1
November: 63.5
Dec.-Jan.: 68.8

The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses.

I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses.

It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters.


http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs

[Pueblo Chieftan]

Originally Posted by bigjosh

That is a quote from over a month ago. You know, when Alex Smith was playing ****ing terribly.

It's clear that you would like to see some changes made on this roster regarding the quarterback position. Andy said "there's a couple other things I got to take care of."

So, what needs to happen first? I'm asking you a simple question. Can you tell us two things?

Fill in the blanks:

1.

2.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by Bowser

Holy shit, this thread.

Let me put this simply - if Alex isn't here next year it's because of two things. 1) His trade value has never been higher at any point since his time in KC, and with Mahomes waiting in the wings, that's a good thing. 2) His cap number is just too damned high for a team that needs cap relief, essentially making it a business decision.

People want to make it sound like if the Chiefs move on from him it will be because they either don't like him or don't think he's capable, and neither one of those are the case. This is the way the NFL works in the salary cap era, and this is why everyday fans aren't holding down GM jobs with NFL teams. If we trade/release him, the decision will not come lightly but it will benefit both parties.

And one more thing - we are not Green Bay and Alex is not Brett Favre for crying out loud. Lol

The loudest 20% speak for the quietest 80%. Most know he's a good qb with a few limitations. Most people believe Alex and the Chiefs are at a perfect time to move on from each other. And most will appreciate everything he did for this team.

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I agree with the almost all of this but they did gave up multiple 1st rd picks for Mahomes for a reason. I think they realized that they have gotten as far as they could with Alex as the QB.

Yep. Until this season, Alex was a known commodity, but he balled out and had himself a career year. Without all the drops he'd have gone for 4,200 yards and 30+ TDs (it's ridiculous he is just an alternate at the Pro Bowl for what that's worth). Is that sustainable, or did he take it personally the Chiefs doing what they did in getting Mahomes and was on a mission to prove that they made a mistake and he wasn't done? Don't really know and don't really care.

All I know is that having two legitimate starters at the QB position on the roster is a net positive for this team, and that applies to if Alex is here next year or not. We as fans have suffered year in and year out with the Chiefs rolling crap out at the QB position that we sincerely don't know how to act when we have TWO guys that can actually play the position. We are in a better position right now at QB than we have been in literally decades, but we can't focus on that.

[bigjosh]

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

It's clear that you would like to see some changes made on this roster regarding the quarterback position. Andy said "there's a couple other things I got to take care of."

So, what needs to happen first? I'm asking you a simple question. Can you tell us two things?

Fill in the blanks:

1. Trade Alex Smtih

2. Profit

There you go.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Ridiculous nonsense. The Hunts have nothing to do with not drafting a QB. In fact they drafted one pretty high in the 2nd round in the 90's.

That is fully on Peterson, Marty, Herm and Pioli. It was simply a matter of having a competitive team in the 90's and thinking they could win with defense and a run game.

When they hired DV Green knew the offense and was available. Not to mention he was never the issue with those teams. Herm took over they had Green and its when they thought they could develop Croyle.

Pioli took over when Cassel looked like a good bet and he knew him.

When we had the #1 pick there wasn't a QB worth a shit. You can bet your ass were it the year before they would have taken Luck.

I don't think Clark magically changed his stance on all this last year, it was all about timing.

Hindsight is 20/20 but frankly most of the issue was the Chiefs were never thinking they were in rebuild mode or when they were the timing didn't work out. Ever since the rookie wage scale drafting and signing a QB has been cheaper than a free agent one.

It absolutely falls in the lap of the Hunt family. JFC who owns the team? They could have at anytime dictated that we draft a young QB. They didn't and I suspect your last sentence is the real reason why. Back then it was very expensive to draft a 1st rd QB and if they busted then they would be out alot of money so they went the safe route.

Let's also not forget many people here including myself was chanting Suck for Luck. He could have tanked the whole season like the Colts did.

Of course you may think this is ridiculous nonsense but you are the same guy that supported all the shitty retread QB's like Cassel and Alex Smith. Your opinion of QB's is worthless at this point.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Bowser

Yep. Until this season, Alex was a known commodity, but he balled out and had himself a career year. Without all the drops he'd have gone for 4,200 yards and 30+ TDs (it's ridiculous he is just an alternate at the Pro Bowl for what that's worth). Is that sustainable, or did he take it personally the Chiefs doing what they did in getting Mahomes and was on a mission to prove that they made a mistake and he wasn't done? Don't really know and don't really care.

All I know is that having two legitimate starters at the QB position on the roster is a net positive for this team, and that applies to if Alex is here next year or not. We as fans have suffered year in and year out with the Chiefs rolling crap out at the QB position that we sincerely don't know how to act when we have TWO guys that can actually play the position. We are in a better position right now at QB than we have been in literally decades, but we can't focus on that.

I don't think it is any coincidence that AS best 2 years are after the drafting of Kap and Mahomes when he is the starter.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

It absolutely falls in the lap of the Hunt family. JFC who owns the team? They could have at anytime dictated that we draft a young QB. They didn't and I suspect your last sentence is the real reason why. Back then it was very expensive to draft a 1st rd QB and if they busted then they would be out alot of money so they went the safe route.

Let's also not forget many people here including myself was chanting Suck for Luck. He could have tanked the whole season like the Colts did.

Of course you may think this is ridiculous nonsense but you are the same guy that supported all the shitty retread QB's like Cassel and Alex Smith. Your opinion of QB's is worthless at this point.

Fact is I was 100% accurate in my assessment of Smith from the start. I have always said he was good enough to win some playoff games but wouldn't carry the team and couldn't win a SB without a stellar defense. I challenge you to find anything I have said to the contrary.

Man was I waaaaay off the mark.

I am sure you have always been spot on with your player predictions. I assure you since you have supported a guy in the past that ended up sucking your opinion on all players is worthless now.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I don't think it is any coincidence that AS best 2 years are after the drafting of Kap and Mahomes when he is the starter.

Yeah, I'm sure the two roster years or 2012 and 2017 being the best he's ever had has little to do with such results.

[Best22]

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

It's clear that you would like to see some changes made on this roster regarding the quarterback position. Andy said "there's a couple other things I got to take care of."

So, what needs to happen first? I'm asking you a simple question. Can you tell us two things?

Fill in the blanks:

1.

2.

Scared

Reid is talking about this season. Alex is the guy in 2017. It's his year. As long as Reid decides he will start, he will never hint at Mahomes starting. Because Reid is a good coach who speaks in coachspeak

Coach Reid absolutely loves Mahomes. His eyes light up when he talks about him. He loves the kid. Mahomes is the future. Dude went into your stadium and beat your starters straight up, with a team of backups and training camp players. Mahomes picked up his first GWD as well. Whenever he had a clean pocket, he showed improved mechanics and great poise. When the pocket collapsed he rolled out and made plays. He's going to be great once he gets the starting offensive line and is able to play with weapons like Kelce, Hunt, and Hill

Can't wait. But actually I can, because we have the playoffs this year as well!

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Fact is I was 100% accurate in my assessment of Smith from the start. I have always said he was good enough to win some playoff games but wouldn't carry the team and couldn't win a SB without a stellar defense. I challenge you to find anything I have said to the contrary.

Man was I waaaaay off the mark.

I am sure you have always been spot on with your player predictions. I assure you since you have supported a guy in the past that ended up sucking your opinion on all players is worthless now.

Everyone makes mistakes when it comes to player eval my issue is the people that constantly defend those shitty players despite the over whelming evidence that they suck.

I am sitting here thinking what my reaction would have been if the Chiefs had traded for Jimmy G. I probably would have been incensed and want to go punch Clark\Reid in the face. Could I have been wrong? Sure he looks good now but I am not entirely sold. I would rather draft our own QB though and have felt that way for over a decade. I am tired of other teams retread QB's.

[CasselGotPeedOn]

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

It's clear that you would like to see some changes made on this roster regarding the quarterback position. Andy said "there's a couple other things I got to take care of."

So, what needs to happen first? I'm asking you a simple question. Can you tell us two things?

Fill in the blanks:

1. Kill

2. Yourself

I filled in the blanks for you.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Sandy Vagina

Yeah, I'm sure the two roster years or 2012 and 2017 being the best he's ever had has little to do with such results.

Last year's Chief team was better than this years. Who doesn't think that?

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Everyone makes mistakes when it comes to player eval my issue is the people that constantly defend those shitty players despite the over whelming evidence that they suck.

I am sitting here thinking what my reaction would have been if the Chiefs had traded for Jimmy G. I probably would have been incensed and want to go punch Clark\Reid in the face. Could I have been wrong? Sure he looks good now but I am not entirely sold. I would rather draft our own QB though and have felt that way for over a decade. I am tired of other teams retread QB's.

Cassel full on sucked the big one minus a fluke 2010 season.

Smith doesn't "suck' he just isn't going to carry a team, at least not for an entire playoff run.

I think most fans wanted us to draft a QB for a long time, we don't have any control over that though.

Thank God it finally happened and it appears it may have been worth the long wait.

[Best22]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Last year's Chief team was better than this years. Who doesn't think that?

I actually think we are better this year

Atleast I actually feel like we can beat anybody this year. Didn't feel that in 2016

2016 had a soft (and declining) defense and limp offense

2017 has a weak (but improving) defense and a top 5 offense

I like the 2017 teams chances better in the playoffs. Atleast we are good at something. 2016 wasn't good at anything except turnovers

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Last year's Chief team was better than this years. Who doesn't think that?

Interesting point.

Offensively this team is better, defensively last years team was better.