Chiefs Who's your breakout Chiefs player for 2015? - Page 4

**BossChief** · 06-04-2015, 09:03 AM

From now until camps kick off is the dead air time for the NFL. This used to be the time when a few high priced vets would get cut due to cap considerations (post June 1st) and we would all discuss the merits of them, but the new CBA made it to where teams didn't have to wait to cut them and still get the benefits...so here we are. Bored and begging for Chiefs talk that hasn't been hashed and rehashed a few hundred times. Time for something new. I've done these the last few years and it's created some good conversation, so here we go.

In the past, guys have asked to define what a "breakout player" is and I've always seen it as a guy that hasn't done much in the past, has underperformed (but has flashed ability) and will be a lot more productive going forward. This can be any player on the Chiefs roster. Even a rookie, I suppose.

I'm going to make a controversial pick this year, but one that anyone that has read my posts this offseason can guess who it is.

My pick for breakout player of 2015 is none other than Alex Smith.

I know, I know.

and all that..."what a homer"..."game manager"...

Let me explain my reasoning for this selection.

1) Third year in the system. I'm sure a few of you will point to Alex's age to discredit this, but I remember Urban Meyers comments about Alex and how until he masters an offense, he will be "non functional" and once he masters it, nobody will run the offense better. I fully believe that is the Alex Smith we will see going forward. I see a player that never really got a chance to master an offense in SF and the only thing close was the last year there where he was completing 70% of his throws for 8ypa and a 13-5 td-int ratio. I expect him to be visibly more comfortable out there in 2015 and by years end be on a whole other level. Andy Reid routinely mentioned in interviews last year that Alex could tell him exactly what everybody was doing and where they were during a play. He would always have answers for why he didn't make certain throws. He's very smart and even though all of us want to see him throwing bombs, Alex didn't want to take unnecessary chances with the ball throwing to guys he didn't trust to make the play. I think that had a lot more to do with the skill position players that Alex. I hope I'm right.

2) The OL offering some stability. Starting at left tackle and moving right, I see improvement from almost every position on the OL and that is huge for Alex Smith. Fisher having a full offseason to work on his strength and technique is huge for Alex. The kid has the tools to be a very effective player at a premier position and with some personnel improvement and going from McGlynn to Ben Grubbs next to him is gonna be huge. It's very under appreciated how big that trade is for Eric's progression. Going from Hudson to Kush at center is a step down on paper, no doubt...but when the kid has gotten a shot, he has played well. SD game in 13, last preseason, the comments Alex and Grubbs have made in support of Eric...I just don't think this will be a massive step down. Plug in MM at RG instead of Lincenbach and it's a clear upgrade. Ryan Harris wasn't terrible, but it's not gonna be hard to improve over his level of play last year and Don Stephenson/Jeff Allen have both shown to be superior players over him in the past. One of them is gonna lock down that spot and provide us solid play. Jeff Allen was looking good until he went down.

3) Vastly improved perimeter weapons. Last year, we had a declining Dwayne Bowe (or unmotivated, whatever), Donnie Avery getting injured early, Thomas and Wilson getting hindering injuries early and the position having nothing else. When AJ Jenkins is a starting receiver for your offense, you're gonna have problems. Enter Jeremy Maclin. This guy can flat out fly and runs crisp routes. Did I mention he has the best hands in football?...he only dropped one catchable ball last year. Alex will trust him early and often and that's something he didn't have with any receivers last year until December when Wilson got healthy and up to speed and we brought in Jason Avant. Thomas and Wilson were 2 guys Alex really trusted towards the end of last year and I look for them to build on that and become legit playmakers in 2015. Wilson had 209 receiving yards in Alex Smiths last 3 games, I think he's poised to have a 750+ yard type season with a handful of scores. He will get lots of single coverage and is a legit 4.3 guy and by all reports has shown up to OTAS very focused and prepared. Thomas is an electrifying playmaker that is stepping into a bigger role in the offense. Avant is a trustworthy vet. Then we get to Conley, who is a flat out burner and is smart as they get. He might just sneak up on everybody due to the attention going elsewhere.

4) The running game. We all want to blame Andy Reid for the lacking attention to the running game, but if you have listened to Jamaal Charles, he says that's because he kept getting injured throughout the year and was never healthy. Said health wise, it was his most frustrating year as a player. With a fully healthy Jamaal Charles running behind an improved OL and weapons in the passing game that should keep opposing defenses from crowding the LOS, I see Jamaal having a great year. Over 2000 total yards and 20 tds are achievable goals. Knile Davis is a beast, too and could also flourish in this situation. Especially with opposing defenses having to go "small" to counter all the speed we have on offense. I don't think it's out of the realm of reality to think Jamaal averages over 6ypc this year and Davis is over 5. I really don't. This will let Alex operate against honest defenses all year, allowing him to be more productive.

5) Speed, baby. Raw, unbridled speed. Everywhere. Maclin is a 4.4 guy and Conley, Wilson, Thomas, Charles and Davis are all 4.3 guys. When you have a guy or 2 that have all world speed, defenses can gameplan for that. It's nearly impossible to gameplan for a whole offense with elite wheels. Alex will have lots of opportunities to go deep with this group of wideouts and he has shown he is willing to take shots deep when he trusts the receiver (Avery and Wilson have shown this)..by years end, I expect Alex to be dropping bombs on defenses regularly.

6) The emergence of Travis Kelce. Lots of us questioned Andy Reid early last year for starting Fasano over Kelce early on, but TK cleared that up for us this offseason stating that early in the year his knee wasn't fully healthy yet and he didn't feel 100% till mid November. I'm excited to see what the kid can do with full trust in his knee and I think he makes it as an all pro in 2015. Great blocker and a steady weapon in the middle of the field. Alex will get him the ball a lot and already trusts him in crucial situations.

My prediction is that Alex ends the year with something like

3900-4100 yards passing
300-400 yards rushing
27-33tds
7-9 interceptions
100+ rating
65+ QBR

Legit pro bowl appearance.

Team makes it to AFC Championship game in large part because of his play, not despite it.

Now, who's your breakout Chiefs player for 2015 and why? (You obviously don't need to write as long of a write up, just thought I'd give more reasoning that normal because of the high profile of my pick of AS. One or 2 reasons are plenty)

Mr_Tomahawk · 06-04-2015, 11:33 AM

Tyler...

ThaVirus · 06-04-2015, 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mcaj22

If Alex Smith counts then Im going Tyvon Branch as a breakout Pro Bowl stat line. 100 tackles 5 picks 4 sacks 3 forced fumbles.

Is he expected to start at SS? I thought he'd be the first guy off the bench.

mcaj22 · 06-04-2015, 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

Is he expected to start at SS? I thought he'd be the first guy off the bench.

if healthy hes better than Abdullah and Parker just on skills, resume and measurables.

I dont think hes a Stanford Routt type fraud. Hes had good numbers. But he plays violent in the box and I dont think his body can hold up.

Cmd'r&Chief · 06-04-2015, 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr_Tomahawk

Tyler...

Tyler Durden?

Tyler Perry?

Tyler Texas?

Mary Tyler Moore?

**Bowser** · 06-04-2015, 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr_Tomahawk

Tyler...

He might just break out of the 53 man roster altogether.

TLO · 06-04-2015, 11:51 AM

Dee Ford

**BossChief** · 06-04-2015, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bowser

He might just break out of the 53 man roster altogether.

The only ways he makes the final roster is if a major injury happens to another quarterback or we trade Chase Daniel.

ThaVirus · 06-04-2015, 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mcaj22

if healthy hes better than Abdullah and Parker just on skills, resume and measurables.

I dont think hes a Stanford Routt type fraud. Hes had good numbers. But he plays violent in the box and I dont think his body can hold up.

That's why I'd rather have him as the first guy off the bench, at least initially.

O.city · 06-04-2015, 12:30 PM

I wouldn't worry too much about branch, we will ha e 3 safeties on the field a ton anyway

DC.chief · 06-04-2015, 12:39 PM

Imagine if Gaines continues his ascent and Peters works out as expected. Could make the argument that it's the best secondary in the NFL

Chief Roundup · 06-04-2015, 12:57 PM

Eric Fisher
Alex Smith
Dee Ford
Philip Gaines

Titty Meat · 06-04-2015, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

I wouldn't worry too much about branch, we will ha e 3 safeties on the field a ton anyway

Plus Cox will make the team the kids a player.

Chief Roundup · 06-04-2015, 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DC.chief

Imagine if Gaines continues his ascent and Peters works out as expected. Could make the argument that it's the best secondary in the NFL

Nah, top 5 maybe, but not best. Safeties are a part of the secondary.

staylor26 · 06-04-2015, 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

Nah, top 5 maybe, but not best. Safeties are a part of the secondary.

We have 3 very good safeties.

Chief Roundup · 06-04-2015, 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by staylor26

We have 3 very good safeties.

Our safeties are not anywhere near tops in the league.

06-04-2015, 09:03 AM
BossChief SuperBowl or bust Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: BF Iowa Casino cash: $1754088	Who's your breakout Chiefs player for 2015? From now until camps kick off is the dead air time for the NFL. This used to be the time when a few high priced vets would get cut due to cap considerations (post June 1st) and we would all discuss the merits of them, but the new CBA made it to where teams didn't have to wait to cut them and still get the benefits...so here we are. Bored and begging for Chiefs talk that hasn't been hashed and rehashed a few hundred times. Time for something new. I've done these the last few years and it's created some good conversation, so here we go. In the past, guys have asked to define what a "breakout player" is and I've always seen it as a guy that hasn't done much in the past, has underperformed (but has flashed ability) and will be a lot more productive going forward. This can be any player on the Chiefs roster. Even a rookie, I suppose. I'm going to make a controversial pick this year, but one that anyone that has read my posts this offseason can guess who it is. My pick for breakout player of 2015 is none other than Alex Smith. I know, I know. and all that..."what a homer"..."game manager"... Let me explain my reasoning for this selection. 1) Third year in the system. I'm sure a few of you will point to Alex's age to discredit this, but I remember Urban Meyers comments about Alex and how until he masters an offense, he will be "non functional" and once he masters it, nobody will run the offense better. I fully believe that is the Alex Smith we will see going forward. I see a player that never really got a chance to master an offense in SF and the only thing close was the last year there where he was completing 70% of his throws for 8ypa and a 13-5 td-int ratio. I expect him to be visibly more comfortable out there in 2015 and by years end be on a whole other level. Andy Reid routinely mentioned in interviews last year that Alex could tell him exactly what everybody was doing and where they were during a play. He would always have answers for why he didn't make certain throws. He's very smart and even though all of us want to see him throwing bombs, Alex didn't want to take unnecessary chances with the ball throwing to guys he didn't trust to make the play. I think that had a lot more to do with the skill position players that Alex. I hope I'm right. 2) The OL offering some stability. Starting at left tackle and moving right, I see improvement from almost every position on the OL and that is huge for Alex Smith. Fisher having a full offseason to work on his strength and technique is huge for Alex. The kid has the tools to be a very effective player at a premier position and with some personnel improvement and going from McGlynn to Ben Grubbs next to him is gonna be huge. It's very under appreciated how big that trade is for Eric's progression. Going from Hudson to Kush at center is a step down on paper, no doubt...but when the kid has gotten a shot, he has played well. SD game in 13, last preseason, the comments Alex and Grubbs have made in support of Eric...I just don't think this will be a massive step down. Plug in MM at RG instead of Lincenbach and it's a clear upgrade. Ryan Harris wasn't terrible, but it's not gonna be hard to improve over his level of play last year and Don Stephenson/Jeff Allen have both shown to be superior players over him in the past. One of them is gonna lock down that spot and provide us solid play. Jeff Allen was looking good until he went down. 3) Vastly improved perimeter weapons. Last year, we had a declining Dwayne Bowe (or unmotivated, whatever), Donnie Avery getting injured early, Thomas and Wilson getting hindering injuries early and the position having nothing else. When AJ Jenkins is a starting receiver for your offense, you're gonna have problems. Enter Jeremy Maclin. This guy can flat out fly and runs crisp routes. Did I mention he has the best hands in football?...he only dropped one catchable ball last year. Alex will trust him early and often and that's something he didn't have with any receivers last year until December when Wilson got healthy and up to speed and we brought in Jason Avant. Thomas and Wilson were 2 guys Alex really trusted towards the end of last year and I look for them to build on that and become legit playmakers in 2015. Wilson had 209 receiving yards in Alex Smiths last 3 games, I think he's poised to have a 750+ yard type season with a handful of scores. He will get lots of single coverage and is a legit 4.3 guy and by all reports has shown up to OTAS very focused and prepared. Thomas is an electrifying playmaker that is stepping into a bigger role in the offense. Avant is a trustworthy vet. Then we get to Conley, who is a flat out burner and is smart as they get. He might just sneak up on everybody due to the attention going elsewhere. 4) The running game. We all want to blame Andy Reid for the lacking attention to the running game, but if you have listened to Jamaal Charles, he says that's because he kept getting injured throughout the year and was never healthy. Said health wise, it was his most frustrating year as a player. With a fully healthy Jamaal Charles running behind an improved OL and weapons in the passing game that should keep opposing defenses from crowding the LOS, I see Jamaal having a great year. Over 2000 total yards and 20 tds are achievable goals. Knile Davis is a beast, too and could also flourish in this situation. Especially with opposing defenses having to go "small" to counter all the speed we have on offense. I don't think it's out of the realm of reality to think Jamaal averages over 6ypc this year and Davis is over 5. I really don't. This will let Alex operate against honest defenses all year, allowing him to be more productive. 5) Speed, baby. Raw, unbridled speed. Everywhere. Maclin is a 4.4 guy and Conley, Wilson, Thomas, Charles and Davis are all 4.3 guys. When you have a guy or 2 that have all world speed, defenses can gameplan for that. It's nearly impossible to gameplan for a whole offense with elite wheels. Alex will have lots of opportunities to go deep with this group of wideouts and he has shown he is willing to take shots deep when he trusts the receiver (Avery and Wilson have shown this)..by years end, I expect Alex to be dropping bombs on defenses regularly. 6) The emergence of Travis Kelce. Lots of us questioned Andy Reid early last year for starting Fasano over Kelce early on, but TK cleared that up for us this offseason stating that early in the year his knee wasn't fully healthy yet and he didn't feel 100% till mid November. I'm excited to see what the kid can do with full trust in his knee and I think he makes it as an all pro in 2015. Great blocker and a steady weapon in the middle of the field. Alex will get him the ball a lot and already trusts him in crucial situations. My prediction is that Alex ends the year with something like 3900-4100 yards passing 300-400 yards rushing 27-33tds 7-9 interceptions 100+ rating 65+ QBR Legit pro bowl appearance. Team makes it to AFC Championship game in large part because of his play, not despite it. Now, who's your breakout Chiefs player for 2015 and why? (You obviously don't need to write as long of a write up, just thought I'd give more reasoning that normal because of the high profile of my pick of AS. One or 2 reasons are plenty)
Posts: 47,145

06-04-2015, 11:33 AM	#46
Mr_Tomahawk Prestige Worldwide Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: Spring Hill, KS Casino cash: $2920526	Tyler... __________________ Adopt-A-Chief: John Dorsey
Posts: 18,398

06-04-2015, 11:51 AM	#51
TLO Life is changing.. Join Date: Jul 2012 Location: NW Missouri Casino cash: $1794900	Dee Ford
Posts: 38,995

06-04-2015, 12:30 PM	#54
O.city In Search of a Life Join Date: Jul 2009 Casino cash: $2624064	I wouldn't worry too much about branch, we will ha e 3 safeties on the field a ton anyway
Posts: 81,336

06-04-2015, 12:39 PM	#55
DC.chief I'm your huckleberry Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: Northern VA Casino cash: $7985213	Imagine if Gaines continues his ascent and Peters works out as expected. Could make the argument that it's the best secondary in the NFL
Posts: 924

06-04-2015, 12:57 PM	#56
Chief Roundup Admitted Planet Junky Join Date: Oct 2000 Casino cash: $1941627	Eric Fisher Alex Smith Dee Ford Philip Gaines __________________ Fanaticism is nowhere. There is no tenderness or humanity in fanaticism.
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