Realistic expectations for Patrick Mahomes

[TimBone]

I know in the hearts of every planeteer, Mahomes has already led us to multiple Super Bowls, and that this whole career thing is just a formality before his HOF induction ceremony, but what is everyone realistically looking for from him this season?

Maybe I'm just letting my battered fan syndrome take over, but I feel like we need to pump the brakes a little bit. He looked solid against Denver, sure, but he's still just a second year guy that was pretty raw coming out of college.

So, what kind of numbers would everyone be happy with? What kind of things will you all be personally looking for from him?

Lastly, if you think I'm being a pussy and need to shut up and buckle up for the Mahomes show, please hit me with your best neg rep. The funnier the better.

[Shoes]

Originally Posted by Halfcan

Great post. I understand what you are saying- and I agree. If Mahomes wins 10 games with that tough schedule, puts up 4k in yards and 30 Td's, we win the West again and at least a playoff game- that would be an amazing 2nd year for him. Wins are the best stat.

With that said- I still have this feeling that Mahomes is going blow things up.

I think the standard that we judge QB's now is going to change with these young guns coming in and more wide-open offenses. A 300-yard game will become the average and a 400-yard game will be the measuring stick of a great game.

All signs indicate that Reid is going to come out with something different the NFL has not seen before. It will take teams a while to adjust. Unless I am completely missing something with the signing of Sammy- this offense will be the best in Chiefs history (at least on paper). This is why I said less than 2 TD's a game seemed low. We saw Watson put up eye-popping numbers in Houston last year- I think Mahomes will so the same.

I am going on Record with these numbers:

31.33 completions per game X 16 games= 501.28 X 9.2 per attempt= 4612 Total passing yards.

63% completion on 49.73 attempts per game. 2.3 TD's per game X 16= 36.8 rounded up to 37 Total passing TD's

27 yards per game rushing X 16 games = 432 Total Rushing Yards

.04 Rushing TD's per game X 16 games= 4 Rushing TD's

.90 INTs per game X 16 = 14.5 rounded up to 15 INTs.

All that math doesn't mean anything when the numbers you are using are insane- 50 pass attempts a game with 31 completions per game?

[Valiant]

7-9, 4kyards passing, 28tds, 18ints, 400rushing with 3 tds

[BlackHelicopters]

MOAR

[HC_Chief]

AVG per game passing - 21/35, 11ypc, 2TD, 1.3INT
AVG per game rushing - 6 carries, 4ypc, .25TD

Totals: 60% comp, 3696yds passing, 32TD, 21INT; 384yds rushing, 4TDs

That would be a tremendous, exciting first year as a starter. Gunslinger will have a lot of INTs (comparative to Smith), but will also make more big plays & lead a dynamic offense.

[KINGPIN CHIEFS FAN]

Originally Posted by BlackHelicopters

Mahomes has a bust waiting for him in Canton.

FYP

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by WhiteWhale

Did Denver sign the Vikings WR corps?

And OL

[Halfcan]

Originally Posted by Shoes

All that math doesn't mean anything when the numbers you are using are insane- 50 pass attempts a game with 31 completions per game?

Mahomes in 2016

49.25 attempts per game and 32.33 completions per game. 65.7 %

Last year Green Bay had 44.67 passing attempts per game and Arizona had 44.

11.5 Offensive drives per game - Mahomes would have to pass 4.34 attempts per drive.

[Ming the Merciless]

Originally Posted by Halfcan

I just posted what I think Mahomes could do.

Thats because you (like others) dont understand the difference between what he 'could do' versus what is expected of him.

And, this is in spite of the fact that the thread is LITERALLY titled 'realistic expectations '

Those two things are different...and there is a lot of space betwixt

[Halfcan]

Originally Posted by Pawnmower

Thats because you (like others) dont understand the difference between what he 'could do' versus what is expected of him.

And, this is in spite od the fact that the thread is LITERALLY titled 'realistic expectations '

Those two things are different...and there is a lot of space betwixt

I Expect him to be a better QB than he was in college. Mahomes put up record breaking numbers- so that shows he CAN do it.

Plus he will have had a year under Alex, his first NFL game, 2 training camps and 2 presesons - to learn and grow before the season starts.

So I will stick by the numbers and put that as my Expectations.

This offense is loaded and Mahomes will have the best talent around him he ever has. So I don't see why people believe he will put up Alex type numbers with double the interceptions?

[Ming the Merciless]

Alex had his best season of all time last year

Id be thrilled with alex numbers from last year, even with 2x the picks

[KINGPIN CHIEFS FAN]

Originally Posted by Halfcan

I Expect him to be a better QB than he was in college. Mahomes put up record breaking numbers- so that shows he CAN do it.

Plus he will have had a year under Alex, his first NFL game, 2 training camps and 2 presesons - to learn and grow before the season starts.

So I will stick by the numbers and put that as my Expectations.

This offense is loaded and Mahomes will have the best talent around him he ever has. So I don't see why people believe he will put up Alex type numbers with double the interceptions?

If Patrick even comes close to putting up the same offensive numbers that he did in college there's no team in the NFL that will be able to keep up with the Chiefs. Our defense might not be the 1985 Bears but we aren't going to allow 45 points per game either. Like I said earlier each game's ebb and flow will determine his final numbers. Some games he will need to surpass 400 yards to get the win and some games he might not even play the whole game because we have a big lead.

[Buckweath]

I personnally feel that most Chiefs fans overrate how good Mahomes will be next year but underrate the defense going into next year, taking into account the upcoming draft.

[Tribal Warfare]

Originally Posted by Pawnmower

Alex had his best season of all time last year

Id be thrilled with alex numbers from last year, even with 2x the picks

No doubt for a young 1st year starter

[Halfcan]

Originally Posted by Pawnmower

Alex had his best season of all time last year

Id be thrilled with alex numbers from last year, even with 2x the picks

Really?

Alex averaged 8 yards per attempt but had 10 games where he was under that- with 2 games Giants and Buffalo he couldn't even manage 6 yards per throw.

Alex had 5 300 yard games but 6 games he couldn't put up 250 yards and 2 games LA Chargers 155 yards and Buffalo 199 yards- could not even hit 200 yards for the entire game.

6 games with only 1 TD thrown- and 2 games he could not even throw 1 TD

Alex curled up for 35 sacks as well.


Playoff game- managed his pedestrian 8 yards a throw took 4 sacks, only threw 2 TDs (first half) and Nothing 2nd half at all. all for a whopping 264 yards for a Loss at Home.

Obviously the Chiefs were not thrilled with those career numbers or he would still be here.

[Shoes]

Originally Posted by Halfcan

Mahomes in 2016

49.25 attempts per game and 32.33 completions per game. 65.7 %

Last year Green Bay had 44.67 passing attempts per game and Arizona had 44.

11.5 Offensive drives per game - Mahomes would have to pass 4.34 attempts per drive.

I literally have no idea where you are getting these stats from. Brett Hundley only threw over 40 attempts in two games (vs CLE & vs MIN). Aaron Rodgers himself only averaged 39 attempts in the 6 games he was healthy (got injured and threw 4 attempts in one game but I excluded that).

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...ualified=false

League leader in passing attempts last season: NYG with 608 passing attempts. We divide 608 passing attempts over 16 games and we come out to 38 passing attempts per game.

Mahomes in 2016- at Texas Tech, you're not gonna compare college stats to the pro's are you? New England this season lead the NFL in plays from scrimmage with 1070- over a 16 game season that roughly equates to 67 plays from scrimmage per game. You want to know how many plays from scrimmage Texas Tech averaged? 87.

You can't compare NCAA to the NFL, and where ever you are getting your numbers from they aren't accurate.