Chiefs Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can! - Page 3

frozenchief · 08-05-2015, 01:00 PM

Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes:

Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers.

Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.

bricks · 08-05-2015, 03:20 PM

Last year we didn't have a receiver worth a damn that could separate at the LOS.

This year we got one of the better ones in Maclin. And it's gonna make a difference.

It's one thing to pass short of the first down marker and it's another when your wideouts can't separate.

At least through good separation the timing of the routes will be right and will give us that split second of added time we need to get to that first down marker.
Plus Maclin is quicker than Bowe so that will also make a difference. I expect our third down efficiency to improve with the addition of Maclin alone. Just wait and see. It's gonna happen.

Pablo · 08-05-2015, 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SNR

I hope Hackenberg has a small penis or something that scares teams away, and he falls to us like Teddy Bridgewater did.

Only this time, we won't be ****ing morons and pass on him.

Dude, it's too early for us to roll the dice on another Ped State QB in the first round if he does fall to us.

Alice just needs a fourth year to really get in the groove and get comfortable.

**BigMeatballDave** · 08-05-2015, 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by frozenchief

Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.

**mdchiefsfan** · 08-05-2015, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Otter

Christian Hackenberg Penn State. We'll go full round then give up 2 high draft pick for Colin Kaepernick in 4 more years. It's the circle of life.

Discuss Thrower · 08-05-2015, 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pestilence

Blow the whole thing up? No.

Get rid of Alex Smith? Yes.

Smith isn't going anywhere until the 2017 season is completed.

Better hope they draft a QB high next season..

But let's get real here, they're going to have to take a LT.

Mr. Laz · 08-05-2015, 03:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by frozenchief

Chiefs Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude?

Yes, we can!

Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season.

so if we win more than 8 games will you kill yourself for honor's sake?

BlackOp · 08-05-2015, 03:50 PM

You read an article like that and reflect...God, we could have drafted EJ Manuel, Geno Smith...or Johnny Manziel. I mean they were just sitting there for the taking. Missing out on them has set this franchise back YEARS...Dorsey sucks.

Discuss Thrower · 08-05-2015, 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackOp

You read an article like that and reflect...God, we could have drafted EJ Manuel, Geno Smith...or Johnny Manziel. I mean they were just sitting there for the taking. Missing out on them has set this franchise back YEARS...Dorsey sucks.

So glad the Chiefs didn't take Teddy Bridgewater. I mean, he'd just be an embarrassment out there.

Halfcan · 08-05-2015, 03:54 PM

Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes.

Teams know all they have to do is Blitz on 3rd down. Alex will either panic and take the sack (hopefully won't cough up the ball) or do a short dump off well short of the first down marker.

If we are behind in the 4th quarter, game is over.

BlackOp · 08-05-2015, 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

So glad the Chiefs didn't take Teddy Bridgewater. I mean, he'd just be an embarrassment out there.

And who would have played QB the last two seasons? Do you think Bridgewater could grasp AR's WC offense as a rookie? I dont..I trust Reid/ Dorsey evaluation of QBs more than some dude on the internet.

**LoneWolf** · 08-05-2015, 04:17 PM

If there is a poster worse than Discuss Thrower on here, I have yet to encounter them.

Hammock Parties · 08-05-2015, 04:23 PM

Quote:

Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes.

This doesn't count though because they aren't factoring in designed sacks. OR hidden touchdowns.

bricks · 08-05-2015, 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoneWolf

If there is a poster worse than Discuss Thrower on here, I have yet to encounter them.

I'm sure I'm a candidate with my Bluejays talk

Valiant · 08-05-2015, 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bricks

Last year we didn't have a receiver worth a damn that could separate at the LOS.

This year we got one of the better ones in Maclin. And it's gonna make a difference.

It's one thing to pass short of the first down marker and it's another when your wideouts can't separate.

At least through good separation the timing of the routes will be right and will give us that split second of added time we need to get to that first down marker.
Plus Maclin is quicker than Bowe so that will also make a difference. I expect our third down efficiency to improve with the addition of Maclin alone. Just wait and see. It's gonna happen.

Please. Cassel got what 15 tds to bowe in one year? Smith is supposedly better?

they misused bowe. Give hime jump routes. Bowe was never speed. Maclin will probably have his worst statistical season unless he gets targeted like gonzo. Smith does not do that though. I picked them to win 8 games.

**notorious** · 08-05-2015, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevieray

I loathe that type of play calling

Third and eight? screen pass!

Oh how Marty loved the swing pass into awaiting cornerbacks and safeties.

08-05-2015, 01:00 PM
frozenchief Veteran Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: Alaska Casino cash: $1541379	Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can! Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes: Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers. Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.
Posts: 3,911

08-05-2015, 03:20 PM	#31
bricks Hey Teacher! Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: land of maple syrup Casino cash: $9902559	Last year we didn't have a receiver worth a damn that could separate at the LOS. This year we got one of the better ones in Maclin. And it's gonna make a difference. It's one thing to pass short of the first down marker and it's another when your wideouts can't separate. At least through good separation the timing of the routes will be right and will give us that split second of added time we need to get to that first down marker. Plus Maclin is quicker than Bowe so that will also make a difference. I expect our third down efficiency to improve with the addition of Maclin alone. Just wait and see. It's gonna happen.
Posts: 5,513

08-05-2015, 03:50 PM	#37
BlackOp MVP Join Date: Oct 2012 Casino cash: $5875267	You read an article like that and reflect...God, we could have drafted EJ Manuel, Geno Smith...or Johnny Manziel. I mean they were just sitting there for the taking. Missing out on them has set this franchise back YEARS...Dorsey sucks.
Posts: 17,754

08-05-2015, 03:54 PM	#39
Halfcan In Search of a Life Join Date: Aug 2005 Casino cash: $7327995	Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. Teams know all they have to do is Blitz on 3rd down. Alex will either panic and take the sack (hopefully won't cough up the ball) or do a short dump off well short of the first down marker. If we are behind in the 4th quarter, game is over.
Posts: 43,200

08-05-2015, 04:17 PM	#41
LoneWolf Constable of Untruths Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: Wichita Casino cash: $1651084	If there is a poster worse than Discuss Thrower on here, I have yet to encounter them.
Posts: 15,009