Chiefs PFF's 2016 Chiefs Season Preview - Page 2

**OnTheWarpath15** · 07-24-2016, 10:21 AM

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro...m_campaign=nfl

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The Kansas City Chiefs were one of the most compelling stories of the 2015 NFL season. After starting 1-5 and losing their best offensive player, the Chiefs won 10 straight regular season games, followed by their first playoff victory since January of 1994. The Chiefs began the offseason with a difficult offseason – with defensive stalwarts Eric Berry (88.0 PFF rating last year), Derrick Johnson (87.4), Tamba Hali (87.6), Sean Smith (83.8) and Jaye Howard (81.6) all set to hit free agency, along with emerging guard Jeff Allen (85.5). The Chiefs were able to retain all of said players, with the exceptions of Smith and Allen. A solid draft, the return of star running back Jamaal Charles (79.0), and uncertainty atop the AFC West make 2016 a season of opportunity in Kansas City. Below we summarize how the Chiefs’ personnel stacks up against the rest of the league, and preview each position group heading into 2016.

The solid-but-unspectacular Smith leads the way

Quarterbacks: 19th in PFF’s preseason rankings

The Alex Smith case has always been an enigmatic one – with play that is consistent enough to build a winning team around (as his teams’ records of 49-21-1 over the last five years would attest), but with a lack of high-end production that leaves you wanting more. After a slow start to the 2015 season, Smith graded positively in all but three games in the Chief’s 11-game winning streak. His elusiveness (which earned a 91.7 run grade in 2015, seventh among quarterbacks) has been a nice aspect of the Chiefs’ running game, as well as buffered against some of Kansas City’s shaky offensive line play since he took over in 2013 (although he was responsible for nine of his hurries last season). It will be interesting to see if the Chiefs can reach the upper echelon of the AFC with Smith as their quarterback, as they appear committed to him at least for the near future.

West and Ware did well, but this is Charles’ job

Running backs: Third

The amazing aspect of the Chiefs’ winning streak a year ago was the fact that it began after the season-ending ACL injury to Charles, who has been their best player offensively since 2010. While Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware graded positively as runners in his stead, our Mike Renner aptly wrote “It’s all about Charles (in 2016), though, when he’s healthy; no running back slips through tighter creases along the line of scrimmage, and Charles is a threat to take it to the house from anywhere on the field.” The big-play threat Charles represents has helped the Chiefs curb the offensive difficulties associated with lacking a big play threat on the outside (until Jeremy Maclin arrived in 2015).

Maclin and Kelce form an above-average 1-2 punch

Receiving corps: 28th

The addition of Maclin helped a wide receiver group that was historically inept in 2014 by hauling in 87 of 120 targets in the regular season, dropping just one pass and scoring eight touchdowns (good for a 115.6 passer rating on his targets). Having Maclin on the outside freed up space for tight end Travis Kelce over the middle as well. Kelce, while showing a decline in his overall grade from 2014 to 2015 – mostly due to run-blocking — was still a very dynamic tight end. His 16 forced missed tackles tied for the most among tight ends last season, while his 541 yards after the catch were second. Vying for snaps alongside Maclin are incumbents Albert Wilson, Chris Conley and De’Anthony Thomas, along with newcomers Rod Streater, Demarcus Robinson and Tyreek Hill. Streater is an especially interesting case – with the Raiders in 2013 he had the 26th-best receiving grade in 773 snaps, with a respectable 1.80 yards per route run despite significant limitations at the quarterback position that season.

Plenty of faces to replace two big names

Offensive line: 17th

The Chiefs lost guards Ben Grubbs and Jeff Allen this offseason, while acquiring tackle Mitchell Schwartz to pair with 2013 first overall pick Eric Fisher. Fisher has struggled playing both right and left tackle since arriving in Kansas City, although his grades have increased each year. If he can continue to improve, he and Schwartz (the sixth-highest-graded tackle in the league last season) can be a formidable tackle duo. Mitch Morse held his own last season at center, committing just one penalty, finishing 16th in overall run-blocking grades and 14th in pass-blocking efficiency (97.2) among centers. Guard remains an issue, with unproven players Zach Fulton, Larry Duvernay-Tardif, Jordan Devey, Jah Reid, Jarrod Pughsley and rookie Parker Ehinger looking to replace the production lost by the departures of Grubbs and Allen.

A strength continues to be a strength

Front-seven: Seventh

The Chiefs’ front seven has been a strength of the team for the entire Andy Reid era, and with the return of Johnson, Hali and Howard, as well as the selection of rookie Chris Jones in the second round of the draft, the group appears set to carry the defense again in 2016. Superstar edge defender Justin Houston had knee surgery in the offseason, which is a concern, since 2014 first-round pick Dee Ford has yet to fully emerge as a third competent edge rusher. As PFF’s Ben Stockwell wrote, the Chiefs’ “defensive line is a force against the run, but is perhaps the most ‘old school’ 3-4 D-Line, offering very little in terms of a pass-rushing force.” This makes the healthy return of Houston, the league’s second-most productive 3-4 outside linebacker last season (with a pass-rushing productivity of 15.3), or the development of Ford (with a pass-rushing productivity of 10.0 last season), an issue of ultimate importance for the Chiefs as the 2016 approaches.

Berry’s big return continues

Secondary: 13th

The return of Eric Berry from Hodgkin’s lymphoma last season was one of the best stories in NFL history. His play on the field earned him PFF’s Comeback Player of the Year award, as well as the team’s franchise tag this offseason. He and Ron Parker, who doubles as a slot cornerback in sub packages, provide the Chiefs with a solid duo at the back end of their defense. Cornerback is another issue, where the narrative surrounding Marcus Peters’ production (nine interceptions) last season overshadowed some of his warts (1,057 yards and eight touchdowns allowed in coverage), as well as the lack of proven talent to replace the loss of Sean Smith. Phillip Gaines (67.9) appears ready to return from an ACL injury, and the 2016 draft brought the Chiefs Keivarae Russell, Eric Murray and D. J. White. However, Smith (the second-highest-graded coverage corner in 2014) was an established corner, whose steadiness in 2015 allowed for some growing pains on the part of Peters. The Chiefs were not the same team defensively when he missed the first three games last season, meaning they will not only need steady improvement from Peters, but also some of the aforementioned newcomers to emerge, in order to ensure a level of play commiserate to that of 2015, where they used six defensive backs more than any other team in the entire NFL.

Chiefshrink · 07-24-2016, 10:58 AM

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Originally Posted by Bowser

And I'm worried about out defense. Pass rush is going to be a concern with Houston hobbled, and I'm afraid that will expose our young corners.

Young guys have to step up some time(Ford and Gaines). We have no other choices at this point.

milkman · 07-24-2016, 11:01 AM

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Originally Posted by Chiefshrink

This will be the early 70's Dolphin running game reincarnated if Reid is wise with Charles to protect and extend his career which would be a very fun entertaining thing to see. If it does let's just hope Charles won't be like Morris bitching for more touches.

Charles is approaching the downside of his career, and I don't think trying to save RBs actually works.

You take advantage of his physical ability now, because whether he gets 150 touches or 225, he will still hit that wall in the next season or 2.

**SAUTO** · 07-24-2016, 11:07 AM

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Originally Posted by milkman

Charles is approaching the downside of his career, and I don't think trying to save RBs actually works.

You take advantage of his physical ability now, because whether he gets 150 touches or 225, he will still hit that wall in the next season or 2.

Yep, ride him till he's done.

**Meatloaf** · 07-24-2016, 11:07 AM

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Originally Posted by Bowser

Agreed. We actually have depth at receiver now (depth for us, anyway), and I don't think Wilson survives.

I think we can all agree that there is no role for DAT on this team now that Tyreek Hill is here, yes?

Wow, you fellas really seem down on Wilson. In my mind, he was EASILY the second best receiver on our team last year. IMO he runs good routes, gets open and doesn't drop too many balls. Yeah, he didn't "lay out" for a couple of balls (again, I claim he was protecting his hammy as I think he was nursing that thing all year).

Sure, Conley MIGHT have a higher upside, but based on performance to date, Wilson is a MUCH better WR. Heck, his avg yds/catch was better than Maclin's and his YAC was very impressive. You all mean to tell me that we've acquired 4 guys BETTER than Wilson? That'd be remarkable.

**jjchieffan** · 07-24-2016, 11:08 AM

You're probably right about saving Charles Milkman. I like to think back to how long Marcus Allen played due to the faiders under using him. But in truth, he was the exception, not the rule.

staylor26 · 07-24-2016, 11:10 AM

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Originally Posted by milkman

He's still on the roster at this point, but I can't see him making it to the season opener.

He might have some trade value as the preseason unfolds, but in IMO, he and Albert Wilson are among the final cuts.

Albert Wilson is not going to get cut, nor should he be. I guarantee you that doesn't happen.

**Easy 6** · 07-24-2016, 11:12 AM

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Originally Posted by JASONSAUTO

Yep, ride him till he's done.

Agreed, just like an Apache and his horse... ride it til it dies, then eat it

milkman · 07-24-2016, 11:12 AM

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Originally Posted by Meatloaf

Wow, you fellas really seem down on Wilson. In my mind, he was EASILY the second best receiver on our team last year. IMO he runs good routes, gets open and doesn't drop too many balls. Yeah, he didn't "lay out" for a couple of balls (again, I claim he was protecting his hammy as I think he was nursing that thing all year).

Sure, Conley MIGHT have a higher upside, but based on performance to date, Wilson is a MUCH better WR. Heck, his avg yds/catch was better than Maclin's and his YAC was very impressive. You all mean to tell me that we've acquired 4 guys BETTER than Wilson? That'd be remarkable.

Conley, Tyreek Hill and DaMarcus Robinson all have far higher upside, and Rod Streater can also be a far more explosive weapon if he can return to his preinjury 2013 form.

Albert Wilson looks like a JAG ceiling guy.

milkman · 07-24-2016, 11:13 AM

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Originally Posted by staylor26

Albert Wilson is not going to get cut, nor should he be. I guarantee you that doesn't happen.

He is a jag, and will likely never be more than a jag.

Chiefshrink · 07-24-2016, 11:16 AM

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Originally Posted by milkman

Charles is approaching the downside of his career, and I don't think trying to save RBs actually works.

You take advantage of his physical ability now, because whether he gets 150 touches or 225, he will still hit that wall in the next season or 2.

I get your point and agree BUT what Reid was forced to do last year when Charles went down was open up more of the playbook and Reid was surprised by joy when he found out how talented West and Ware can be when he did this. Our record was 1-5 when Charles went down. Our offense was too predictable for defenses with Charles being keyed on with teams stacking the box.

I say keep the same play book open that West and Ware used after Charles went down with Charles in the mix making it very difficult for D's to figure out who is getting the ball especially when you have to factor in Maclin,Kelce Streater/Williams if they produce and especially with Hill being a potentially faster and tougher slot version of Wes Welker. How fun would that be to watch !!

Chiefshrink · 07-24-2016, 11:20 AM

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Originally Posted by milkman

He is a jag, and will likely never be more than a jag.

Agreed. I have said this all along and especially when he didn't lay out for long pass last year in the playoffs. Still miffs me

staylor26 · 07-24-2016, 11:29 AM

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Originally Posted by milkman

He is a jag, and will likely never be more than a jag.

He might be, but there's no reason to cut him just yet. He can still turn out to be a solid slot WR, where he's a much better fit. Maclin, Conley, and Wilson have been working out all offseason together and developing chemistry.

**Buehler445** · 07-24-2016, 11:29 AM

I agree with MM. Grubbs and Allen are no big losses.

The playbook was definitely the difference in the first 6 vs the last 10 games. Hopefully Reid keeps the book open.

**Meatloaf** · 07-24-2016, 11:29 AM

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Originally Posted by milkman

Conley, Tyreek Hill and DaMarcus Robinson all have far higher upside, and Rod Streater can also be a far more explosive weapon if he can return to his preinjury 2013 form.

Albert Wilson looks like a JAG ceiling guy.

Well, we know Streater can play in the league as he has some history. Who knows about Conley, Hill and Robinson -- they're pretty much unknowns. Wilson won't ever be All-Pro, but he has demonstrated that he can play in the league. Hey, if those guys all turn out better than Wilson, then I'll be one happy camper.

**Bowser** · 07-24-2016, 11:30 AM

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Originally Posted by Meatloaf

Wow, you fellas really seem down on Wilson. In my mind, he was EASILY the second best receiver on our team last year. IMO he runs good routes, gets open and doesn't drop too many balls. Yeah, he didn't "lay out" for a couple of balls (again, I claim he was protecting his hammy as I think he was nursing that thing all year).

Sure, Conley MIGHT have a higher upside, but based on performance to date, Wilson is a MUCH better WR. Heck, his avg yds/catch was better than Maclin's and his YAC was very impressive. You all mean to tell me that we've acquired 4 guys BETTER than Wilson? That'd be remarkable.

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Originally Posted by staylor26

Albert Wilson is not going to get cut, nor should he be. I guarantee you that doesn't happen.

I don't "hate" Wilson, I just don't think he's anything special. Here are his stats from last year -

35 rec, 451 yds, 2 TDs, 34 yds/GM

That's pretty pedestrian. Those numbers could have been literally anybody on any roster. I don't think Wilson brings any type of niche to the team, and if Streater and Robinson produce like they seem to be able to, they will more then make up for Wilson not being here.

If Wilson makes the team, he hopefully will have a hell of a camp and preseason. Probably means he's one of Andy's guys, as well.

And just because I have the page up, here are his two year career stats -

51 rec, 711 yds, 2TDs, 27 yds/GM,

He's JAG.

http://www.nfl.com/player/albertwils...72/careerstats

07-24-2016, 11:08 AM	#20
jjchieffan Supporter Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Highlandville, MO Casino cash: $3412247	You're probably right about saving Charles Milkman. I like to think back to how long Marcus Allen played due to the faiders under using him. But in truth, he was the exception, not the rule. __________________ Genesis 1:1 In the beginning, God created the Heavens and the Earth. Following the historical accounts and the genealogy from that point on, the age of the Earth is approximately 6000-7000 years old. The Big Bullshit Theory is a lie. It and the evolution theory go against real science. Satan has used our public school system to brainwash everyone into believing these lies. Be not decieved.
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07-24-2016, 11:29 AM	#28
Buehler445 Supporter Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Scott City KS Casino cash: $2324734	I agree with MM. Grubbs and Allen are no big losses. The playbook was definitely the difference in the first 6 vs the last 10 games. Hopefully Reid keeps the book open.
Posts: 56,777