Royals *** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository *** - Page 7

duncan_idaho · 09:49 AM

Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB.

In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title.

Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore.

We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa.

Now, let's talk about the offseason:

LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW

The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully).

First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts.

Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things.

If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc.

I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk.

Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth?

Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years.

Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list).

Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period.

The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer.

I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be:

1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160).

Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura)

2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016.

Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell.

After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart.

3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season.

4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time.

And, as always, here are the Prospects:

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
3. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
6. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
7. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
8. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.
9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.

Spoiler!

11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
18. Eric Skoglund, LHP: Skoglund had a nice year at Wilmington. I'm skeptical because his K rate is lower than I like to see for a guy at A+ - just 7/9, and usually guys lose a strikeout or two/9 as they move up the chain from there - but he has excellent control, walking 1.17 batters/9. 6-7 lefties with great control who get lots of ground balls - like Skoglund - have a chance to overcome bad K rates.
19. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/LF: A lefty stick with power, O'Hearn was a savings signing as an 8th round pick, but a change in his approach increased his power - while increasing his K rate. After Vallot, probably the best pure power prospect in the Royals system.
20. Josh Staumont, RHP: I was terrified of this guy's control problems, and he walked nearly a batter an inning in his pro debut (32 BB in 40 1/3 IP). Staumont's nasty, nasty stuff (plus-plus fastball, plus slider) could make him a very good late-inning reliever who strikes out more than a batter an inning, if he can develop average or slightly below-average control. If he really masters the control, you're talking about a potential Greg Holland type, but that's a TALL task.

duncan_idaho · 11-04-2015, 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

I believe DM said recently the goal in a small market is to bring up the following each year:

1. Position player
2. Starter
3. Reliever

He has done that most years. last year he didn't unless you include Orlando. He will have to do it this year tho. Guys like Eibner, Zimmer, Almonte almost have to come up because Madson + Young are surely gone and we are really maxing out payroll.

What happens to Vargas' contract? I read it's all covered by insurance if he doesn't pitch. That's a big game-changer (8m) in terms of payroll.

The team did go 26-16 or something like a 97-win pace without Gordon. Something to thjnk about if he really wants 90-100M.

I've read the insurance for Vargas covers 75 percent of his deal, so $6 million. That would drop their committed salaries down to about $78 million once Gordon declines his player option, with about $25-30 million for arbitration guys (assuming Holland is allowed to walk, which would be a big arb figure).

That puts KC around $110 million, with about 9-10 players to go get. Those would be:

Starting LF
Starting RF (if you don't go with Dyson/Orlando/etc.)
UTIL IF (Likely filled with Colon)
5th OF (filled internally)
Reserve C (could be filed internally with Francisco Pena, potentially, or by keeping Butera)

SP
BP (long reliever)
BP (middle)
BP (middle)
BP (lefty)

I could see Young returning because I still don't think his free market value will be that high, and even if he is at $3-4 million, that's a pretty valuable swing guy to have on a staff.

Guys like Louis Coleman, Brian Flynn, and perhaps Michael Mariot could fill the other bullpen slots.

So really, the number of guys KC needs to "pay" for is pretty limited.

Prison Bitch · 11-04-2015, 10:10 AM

FG crowdsource has Gordon #9 FA and Leake #12, him getting 4/56. That's a lotta dough. Doesn't 18/yr buy you more than that????

Duncan you like Dex Fowler in the past. 4/56 also, and he's 29. Might be a good fit here.

duncan_idaho · 11-04-2015, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

FG crowdsource has Gordon #9 FA and Leake #12, him getting 4/56. That's a lotta dough. Doesn't 18/yr buy you more than that????

Duncan you like Dex Fowler in the past. 4/56 also, and he's 29. Might be a good fit here.

$14 million a year for Leake is not bad and seems about right.

Dexter Fowler would be a decent consolation prize for Alex Gordon, if they don't get a deal done there.

He's a good power/speed guy and should play a good LF, if that was the plan. I like that he's a switch hitter, and I like that he's a good career OBP player (.367 career OBP, nearly 100 points higher than his BA).

I think he'd likely be someone who can hit 10-15 HR with 40 2B and about 30 SB for KC, which would be pretty valuable.

He's also better historically vs. LHP than RHP, which is a bonus.

Prison Bitch · 11-04-2015, 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I've read the insurance for Vargas covers 75 percent of his deal, so $6 million. That would drop their committed salaries down to about $78 million once Gordon declines his player option, with about $25-30 million for arbitration guys (assuming Holland is allowed to walk, which would be a big arb figure).

That puts KC around $110 million, with about 9-10 players to go get. Those would be:

Starting LF
Starting RF (if you don't go with Dyson/Orlando/etc.)
UTIL IF (Likely filled with Colon)
5th OF (filled internally)
Reserve C (could be filed internally with Francisco Pena, potentially, or by keeping Butera)

SP
BP (long reliever)
BP (middle)
BP (middle)
BP (lefty)

I could see Young returning because I still don't think his free market value will be that high, and even if he is at $3-4 million, that's a pretty valuable swing guy to have on a staff.

Guys like Louis Coleman, Brian Flynn, and perhaps Michael Mariot could fill the other bullpen slots.

So really, the number of guys KC needs to "pay" for is pretty limited.

Love it. Read every word^^^

KevB · 11-04-2015, 10:20 AM

Another point, it's in the Glass family's best interest to keep this team very competitive until the next TV deal can be negotiated. The current success will carry for a bit, but if in 2 to 3 years we're back to a .500 team, they'd lose some leverage in the market. Part of our analysis should probably be assessing the likelihood that paying an additional $10-20/year in payroll now could reap many millions more in benefit on the next TV deal.

duncan_idaho · 11-04-2015, 10:30 AM

Looking at that Fangraphs Crowd Sourcing is a good start.

Let's start with Alex Gordon. Say he does get offers of 5/100. I think KC could get him with a competitive offer of 5/80-85. I don't think KC could turn down that type of deal... if you look at it from a WAR standpoint, he'd need to produce about 9 WAR over 5 years to make the contract work, and I think he does that, easily.

Now, looking at SP, I think Samardzija is really low. He'll get more because he's a name guy and overrated. Leake seems about right, though, and would be a nice stabilizing factor to add to KC's rotation for the next several years (which figure to be his prime years).

Zobrist is the one that really surprises me. I think the projections there are running behind his current market value, which apparently is around $15 million/year. That's going to be a tough sign, but if he IS signed for the figure Fangraphs suggests there, it makes alot of sense for KC.

Remember, too, that family and faith matter more to the Zobrists than anything else. Julianna is not a typical baseball wife, in that she is a breadwinner as well (very successful Christian musician, as I understand it. ) I don't think "highest bidder" is the No. 1 criterion for them.

Unsmooth-Moment · 11-04-2015, 10:32 AM

I'd almost prefer to go cheap in RF so that we can go get a 2nd tier SP. I'd feel really good if we could get Zo and Gordon back, but I only expect 1 to resign. I hope I'm wrong!

tk13 · 11-04-2015, 11:00 AM

Starting pitching has become so expensive. I wouldn't be surprised if Leake got that much money. You're paying over 10-12 million for any kind of established starter anymore. I think we need to do something to have insurance against our young guys not working out next year or one of our 4 current starters getting hurt. We don't know how Duffy is going to perform and we don't know what Medlen will give us over a whole season.

Given the success DM had this year, I'm sure he'll continue to look for under the radar moves we aren't even thinking about right now. But even though Cueto was all over the place, he gave us two huge ace performances in the playoffs. We've gotten by with less from our starters but you need somebody to step up there. Especially when you consider Herrera and Davis have pitched a ton of innings the last two years because of the playoffs. Ned will probably be very vigilant about getting them rest next season.

CaliforniaChief · 11-04-2015, 12:06 PM

Is Rusty Kuntz done? I'm gonna miss that guy if so.

I'm also amazed that I'm writing about our 1B coach, though to be fair he does MUCH more than that.

Great Expectations · 11-04-2015, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief

Is Rusty Kuntz done? I'm gonna miss that guy if so.

I'm also amazed that I'm writing about our 1B coach, though to be fair he does MUCH more than that.

He is contemplating retirement. Rumor has it that he has been contemplating it for the last 15 years.

CaliforniaChief · 11-04-2015, 02:17 PM

I loved Rusty's exchange with Colon after the game winner.

"Yeah, Player!" "That's right!" "Gimme some!" "Let's Go!"

HELL YEAH!

**alnorth** · 11-04-2015, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Great Expectations

He is contemplating retirement. Rumor has it that he has been contemplating it for the last 15 years.

From what I've read, he's talked about retirement after every season for so long, that no one is going to believe it until he does retire.

Prison Bitch · 11-04-2015, 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Looking at that Fangraphs Crowd Sourcing is a good start.

Let's start with Alex Gordon. Say he does get offers of 5/100. I think KC could get him with a competitive offer of 5/80-85. I don't think KC could turn down that type of deal... if you look at it from a WAR standpoint, he'd need to produce about 9 WAR over 5 years to make the contract work, and I think he does that, easily.

Now, looking at SP, I think Samardzija is really low. He'll get more because he's a name guy and overrated. Leake seems about right, though, and would be a nice stabilizing factor to add to KC's rotation for the next several years (which figure to be his prime years).

Zobrist is the one that really surprises me. I think the projections there are running behind his current market value, which apparently is around $15 million/year. That's going to be a tough sign, but if he IS signed for the figure Fangraphs suggests there, it makes alot of sense for KC.

Remember, too, that family and faith matter more to the Zobrists than anything else. Julianna is not a typical baseball wife, in that she is a breadwinner as well (very successful Christian musician, as I understand it. ) I don't think "highest bidder" is the No. 1 criterion for them.

On their chat, there seems to be agreement that this is the year where the elites fall back some and the middle-range guys get the difference. Price, Greinke and Heyward are the elites at 150-200M. Then you have the almost-elites Cespedes, Cueto + Upton between 125-150M.

Do you have want to commit 125M to Justin Upton or do you want to buy Mike Leake, Ben Zobrist, Ryan Madson and a flier on say Mike Pelfrey? For a team that's middling, doesn't option (B) seem way more logical?

Now the Cubs or Dodgers are almost playoff locks (at least major contenders) for 2016. Buying quantity isn't important for them so they WILL get an elite player. But if you're AZ or Washington or Texas or......don't you bid up quantity?

Net: hard to see what that does to Alex. He's either a cheap option to Cespedes and he gets bid up from 80 to 100. Or else he's deemed an expensive option to Colby Rasmus and goes 85 to 75. Past years suggests any top-20 guy gets max dollars and more than crowd sourcing expec. Royals success 2015 with savvy mid level signings is the counterpoint.

duncan_idaho · 11-04-2015, 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

On their chat, there seems to be agreement that this is the year where the elites fall back some and the middle-range guys get the difference. Price, Greinke and Heyward are the elites at 150-200M. Then you have the almost-elites Cespedes, Cueto + Upton between 125-150M.

Do you have want to commit 125M to Justin Upton or do you want to buy Mike Leake, Ben Zobrist, Ryan Madson and a flier on say Mike Pelfrey? For a team that's middling, doesn't option (B) seem way more logical?

Now the Cubs or Dodgers are almost playoff locks (at least major contenders) for 2016. Buying quantity isn't important for them so they WILL get an elite player. But if you're AZ or Washington or Texas or......don't you bid up quantity?

Net: hard to see what that does to Alex. He's either a cheap option to Cespedes and he gets bid up from 80 to 100. Or else he's deemed an expensive option to Colby Rasmus and goes 85 to 75. Past years suggests any top-20 guy gets max dollars and more than crowd sourcing expec. Royals success 2015 with savvy mid level signings is the counterpoint.

So they think more money gets to the second and third tier guys? Interesting. If his top offer is $100 million or less, I think KC can keep him long-term if it wants to keep him.

Completely random thought, but Daniel Murphy might be a cheap LF backup option. Not sure what his D would look like - I'd guess "bad," but his offensive profile is interesting (even without the HR surge).

**Saul Good** · 11-04-2015, 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

I could be wrong but from my perception, it would be a PR nightmare for the Glass family to lose Gordon over a few million per.

Glass just won the WS and nearly went back to back. He doesn't have to worry about PR right now. People trust Dayton to do what's best.

11-02-2015, 05:00 PM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1630308	* Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository * Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB. In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title. Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore. We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa. Now, let's talk about the offseason: LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully). First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts. Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things. If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc. I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk. Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth? Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years. Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list). Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period. The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer. I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be: 1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160). Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura) 2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016. Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell. After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart. 3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season. 4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time. And, as always, here are the Prospects: Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016: Spoiler! 1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1 2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016. 3. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags. 4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level. 5. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season. 6. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup. 7. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly. 8. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up. 9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing. 10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with. Spoiler! 11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced. 12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch. 13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them. 14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching. 15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list. 16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far. 17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble. 18. Eric Skoglund, LHP: Skoglund had a nice year at Wilmington. I'm skeptical because his K rate is lower than I like to see for a guy at A+ - just 7/9, and usually guys lose a strikeout or two/9 as they move up the chain from there - but he has excellent control, walking 1.17 batters/9. 6-7 lefties with great control who get lots of ground balls - like Skoglund - have a chance to overcome bad K rates. 19. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/LF: A lefty stick with power, O'Hearn was a savings signing as an 8th round pick, but a change in his approach increased his power - while increasing his K rate. After Vallot, probably the best pure power prospect in the Royals system. 20. Josh Staumont, RHP: I was terrified of this guy's control problems, and he walked nearly a batter an inning in his pro debut (32 BB in 40 1/3 IP). Staumont's nasty, nasty stuff (plus-plus fastball, plus slider) could make him a very good late-inning reliever who strikes out more than a batter an inning, if he can develop average or slightly below-average control. If he really masters the control, you're talking about a potential Greg Holland type, but that's a TALL task. Last edited by duncan_idaho; 11-17-2015 at 09:49 AM..
Posts: 21,126

11-04-2015, 10:10 AM	#92
Prison Bitch Rabbi Goldmann Join Date: Nov 2012 Casino cash: $5450159	FG crowdsource has Gordon #9 FA and Leake #12, him getting 4/56. That's a lotta dough. Doesn't 18/yr buy you more than that???? Duncan you like Dex Fowler in the past. 4/56 also, and he's 29. Might be a good fit here.
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11-04-2015, 10:20 AM	#95
KevB Agree to Disagree Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: The State of Euphoria Casino cash: $10026612	Another point, it's in the Glass family's best interest to keep this team very competitive until the next TV deal can be negotiated. The current success will carry for a bit, but if in 2 to 3 years we're back to a .500 team, they'd lose some leverage in the market. Part of our analysis should probably be assessing the likelihood that paying an additional $10-20/year in payroll now could reap many millions more in benefit on the next TV deal.
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11-04-2015, 10:30 AM	#96
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1630308	Looking at that Fangraphs Crowd Sourcing is a good start. Let's start with Alex Gordon. Say he does get offers of 5/100. I think KC could get him with a competitive offer of 5/80-85. I don't think KC could turn down that type of deal... if you look at it from a WAR standpoint, he'd need to produce about 9 WAR over 5 years to make the contract work, and I think he does that, easily. Now, looking at SP, I think Samardzija is really low. He'll get more because he's a name guy and overrated. Leake seems about right, though, and would be a nice stabilizing factor to add to KC's rotation for the next several years (which figure to be his prime years). Zobrist is the one that really surprises me. I think the projections there are running behind his current market value, which apparently is around $15 million/year. That's going to be a tough sign, but if he IS signed for the figure Fangraphs suggests there, it makes alot of sense for KC. Remember, too, that family and faith matter more to the Zobrists than anything else. Julianna is not a typical baseball wife, in that she is a breadwinner as well (very successful Christian musician, as I understand it. ) I don't think "highest bidder" is the No. 1 criterion for them. __________________ "You gotta love livin', cause dying is a pain in the ass." ---- Sinatra
Posts: 21,126

11-04-2015, 10:32 AM	#97
Unsmooth-Moment Veteran Join Date: Sep 2011 Location: MO Casino cash: $9390051	I'd almost prefer to go cheap in RF so that we can go get a 2nd tier SP. I'd feel really good if we could get Zo and Gordon back, but I only expect 1 to resign. I hope I'm wrong!
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11-04-2015, 11:00 AM	#98
tk13 ... Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $1862500	Starting pitching has become so expensive. I wouldn't be surprised if Leake got that much money. You're paying over 10-12 million for any kind of established starter anymore. I think we need to do something to have insurance against our young guys not working out next year or one of our 4 current starters getting hurt. We don't know how Duffy is going to perform and we don't know what Medlen will give us over a whole season. Given the success DM had this year, I'm sure he'll continue to look for under the radar moves we aren't even thinking about right now. But even though Cueto was all over the place, he gave us two huge ace performances in the playoffs. We've gotten by with less from our starters but you need somebody to step up there. Especially when you consider Herrera and Davis have pitched a ton of innings the last two years because of the playoffs. Ned will probably be very vigilant about getting them rest next season.
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11-04-2015, 12:06 PM	#99
CaliforniaChief #RIPAce Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: So Cal Casino cash: $12392899	Is Rusty Kuntz done? I'm gonna miss that guy if so. I'm also amazed that I'm writing about our 1B coach, though to be fair he does MUCH more than that.
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11-04-2015, 02:17 PM	#101
CaliforniaChief #RIPAce Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: So Cal Casino cash: $12392899	I loved Rusty's exchange with Colon after the game winner. "Yeah, Player!" "That's right!" "Gimme some!" "Let's Go!" HELL YEAH!
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