Chiefs Over/Under 9 Wins - Page 7

frozenchief · 08-24-2017, 04:06 PM

Football Outsiders goes through the whole AFC West discussing whether they will exceed their projected Vegas lines for wins. FO is one of the more intelligent websites, using real data and not just gut instinct. Their take on KC is cautiously optimistic:

Bryan: Forget the win total; what's the over/under for when Patrick Mahomes replaces Alex Smith? It's an odd situation, where a playoff team with a perfectly cromulent starting quarterback goes out and uses a first-round pick to draft his successor rather than bolster something else for a playoff run.

Andrew: Surely they don't intend to actually replace Smith with Mahomes during the season? That's no way to get your team to a Super Bowl!

Bryan: Jay Cutler replaced Jake Plummer in 2006, which turned out to also not be a way to get your team to a Super Bowl. You're probably right that the Chiefs won't make a move unless something falls apart this season, but that's a big old ticking clock in the ear of Smith.

Andrew: The Plummer-Cutler thing really irritated me at the time (and not just me), so you just made me glad we're done writing about Denver. It's definitely ominous for Smith's future to have Mahomes not only there but apparently playing very exciting football during the preseason. The Chiefs were one of my favorite teams to watch last year, with quarterback the one damp spot on an otherwise fiery outfit.

Bryan: Yeah, so far, Mahomes doesn't appear to be the next Jim Druckenmiller or Todd Marinovich, which is good for Chiefs fans and bad for Alex. This would be the second time he has lost his job to a hot up-and-coming young draft pick, too. I've got a soft spot for the guy after watching him struggle for so long on some truly terrible 49ers teams. I remember the 49ers faithful chanting that they wanted David Carr -- David Carr!! -- to enter the game to improve the level of quarterback play. No one appreciates the subtle and dangerous art of the check down!

Andrew: To be fair to Smith, he has been exactly what he was signed to be for the Chiefs: a safe quarterback who can help his head coach stabilize the franchise, keep things around him on schedule, help the younger players develop, then hand over to his successor when he becomes the guy who's holding the offense back. Everything I wrote about Chase Daniel's play in FOA 2017 (still available!) applies to Smith, except Smith is a better version of that hyper-conservative, functional passer.

Bryan: And, of course, the best way to help your conservative, functional passer succeed for your team with Super Bowl aspirations is to cut his top receiver in the middle of the offseason for no adequately explained reason. So long, Jeremy Maclin!

Andrew: Hello Travis Kelce, who was the main beneficiary during Maclin's absence last season. Kelce, those running backs, and Tyreek Hill give a lot of quality, versatility, and unpredictability around Smith, but at some point he will probably need to pass to an actual wide receiver. Right now, that guy is Chris Conley. Or Albert Wilson. Or ... wait, that's it? They could hold their wide receiver meetings in a cupboard.

Bryan: I will say this, though: for as poor as their offense looks on paper, they haven't looked bad in preseason. Yes, it's just preseason, and there are not enough grains of salt in the world to take that with, but it looks … competent!

Andrew: I found the Chiefs great fun to watch last year. As long as you can forget that Tyreek Hill the football jersey is Tyreek Hill the person, he's electrifying. Kelce is one of the best receiving tight ends in the game, and one of the few tight ends who can line up in any position, run any route, and even take a wide receiver screen 80 yards for a touchdown. Andy Reid does a lot with formations and packages to confound a defense, which often results in beautiful mismatches like Albert Wilson against Telvin Smith in deep centerfield coverage. Their running game is likewise one of the most creative in the league, and they are one of the few teams with a legitimately decent offensive line.

Bryan: Their defense, similarly, is fun to watch, if lacking the oomph or long-term success of Denver. Eric Berry is an amazing player to watch, and grouped with Marcus Peters and Ron Parker, you have a very, very good secondary. There's no more Dontari Poe -- a victim of their tight salary cap situation -- but you have very useful players like Ramik Wilson and Chris Jones to shore up the middle. Oh, and then Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, which are great assets to have in a division with at least two below-average offensive lines. I mean, there's nothing there that matches up with the best in the league at any one position, but it's a group without weaknesses.
I do have a limb I want to go out on here. With an adequate, if not amazing offense, and a solid, if not spectacular, defense, we could see NFL history made. The record for field goals in a season is 44, set by the 2011 San Francisco 49ers. And you know who their quarterback was, right?

Andrew: Alex Smith, the last time he had a highly-drafted rookie quarterback on the bench behind him.

Bryan: So yeah. I'm picking the Chiefs to go 9-7 and win the division -- a tough division, but fair. Now, what's their over/under again … ah hell, another round number. So, I have to decide if this is more likely a 10-6 team or an 8-8 team. That's a huge gap! Down with integer lines! I know they went 12-4 last season, but they didn't have to play the NFC East. I'm going to say the odds that they sputter due to a lack of receiving weapons are greater than the odds that they repeat double-digit wins, so I'm taking the under. Nasty line, this one.

Andrew: This line screams "push" like an over-caffeinated midwife, but I'm taking the over. This is the most balanced team in the division, and good enough to take wins away from all of the other good teams around them. I think they're the best of the West, in the AFC at least.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/scr...est-overunders

**DaneMcCloud** · 08-25-2017, 12:21 PM

And while it's true that Spencer Ware isn't a 1,000 rusher, he had 921 yards in 14 games last year.

Anyone knocking Ware is a moron.

Reerun_KC · 08-25-2017, 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

It's ridiculous

About as ridiculous as the playoff record.

Hammock Parties · 08-25-2017, 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

And while it's true that Spencer Ware isn't a 1,000 rusher, he had 921 yards in 14 games last year.

Anyone knocking Ware is a moron.

Ware had about five good games last year. He's a fair-to-middlin' back. Are you seriously trying to argue the Chiefs running game is anything to write home about?

It's a big problem with this team.

O.city · 08-25-2017, 01:17 PM

Every year it's the same stuff with the guy and every year we have people here argue with him.

kccrow · 08-25-2017, 01:45 PM

Andy tends to win 10 games with a talented roster... I'll take the over, but I'm not going out on a limb for 12+... tough schedule.

Reerun_KC · 08-25-2017, 01:56 PM

Haven't even played our third preseason game yet...

Fun times.

cooper barrett · 08-25-2017, 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hydrae

I keep seeing things like this about Conley. But people seem to forget that Maclin also only had 536 yards receiving last year as well. Not exactly #1 numbers either.

Maclin is playing for 1\2 the money this year vs. last year. Says it all!

He cost us $22M for 2 years and Ravens picked him up for 2 years for $11M

**ptlyon** · 08-25-2017, 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC

Haven't even played our third preseason game yet...

Fun times.

Now. Don't be bitter.

**Ming the Merciless** · 08-25-2017, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hydrae

I keep seeing things like this about Conley. But people seem to forget that Maclin also only had 536 yards receiving last year as well. Not exactly #1 numbers either.

ridiculous

maclin is a proven NFL receiver

conley has a single 500 yard season

give me a break

**Ming the Merciless** · 08-25-2017, 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Bull ****ing shit.

It's the result of not wasting time refuting the annual Claynus trolling predictions.

i didnt see anything in that post that was trollish

all legitimate questions IMO

again,

its 'trolling' in homers minds to say the chiefs will win less than 12 games

when the experts and crowd sourced data has the o/u at 9 , and theyres an 80% chance they lose week 1

come on man

**DaneMcCloud** · 08-25-2017, 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pawnmower

ridiculous

maclin is a proven NFL receiver

conley has a single 500 yard season

give me a break

Maclin's on the decline.

Conley still hasn't reached his ceiling.

**Ming the Merciless** · 08-25-2017, 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cooper barrett

Maclin is playing for 1\2 the money this year vs. last year. Says it all!

He cost us $22M for 2 years and Ravens picked him up for 2 years for $11M

oh does it 'say it all' ?

maclin 5.5 million per year

tyreek 2.5 million per year

conley 3.1 million per year

theres not THAT many NFL receivers who play for more per year than maclin is getting, lets not act like that is chump change , idiot

**Ming the Merciless** · 08-25-2017, 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Maclin's on the decline.

Conley still hasn't reached his ceiling.

well , as my dad liked to say

'there is many a slip betwixt the cup and the lip'

we will see how conley and hill do as 1 & 2 but maclin has proven himself in battle for years

im not going to sit here starting to suck hill and conley's dick until they DO something

**Ming the Merciless** · 08-25-2017, 02:48 PM

furthermore, i'd be willing to undertake a major bet that in 2018 or maybe 2019 , when mahomes is the starter.....the 1 and 2 will not be conley and hill

we will draft or aquire someone else

*maybe one of them (probably hill) but not both

staylor26 · 08-25-2017, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pawnmower

well , as my dad liked to say

'there is many a slip betwixt the cup and the lip'

we will see how conley and hill do as 1 & 2 but maclin has proven himself in battle for years

im not going to sit here starting to suck hill and conley's dick until they DO something

Hill DID something last season. Conley did as much as Maclin too.

08-24-2017, 04:06 PM
frozenchief Veteran Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: Alaska Casino cash: $1551379	Over/Under 9 Wins Football Outsiders goes through the whole AFC West discussing whether they will exceed their projected Vegas lines for wins. FO is one of the more intelligent websites, using real data and not just gut instinct. Their take on KC is cautiously optimistic: Bryan: Forget the win total; what's the over/under for when Patrick Mahomes replaces Alex Smith? It's an odd situation, where a playoff team with a perfectly cromulent starting quarterback goes out and uses a first-round pick to draft his successor rather than bolster something else for a playoff run. Andrew: Surely they don't intend to actually replace Smith with Mahomes during the season? That's no way to get your team to a Super Bowl! Bryan: Jay Cutler replaced Jake Plummer in 2006, which turned out to also not be a way to get your team to a Super Bowl. You're probably right that the Chiefs won't make a move unless something falls apart this season, but that's a big old ticking clock in the ear of Smith. Andrew: The Plummer-Cutler thing really irritated me at the time (and not just me), so you just made me glad we're done writing about Denver. It's definitely ominous for Smith's future to have Mahomes not only there but apparently playing very exciting football during the preseason. The Chiefs were one of my favorite teams to watch last year, with quarterback the one damp spot on an otherwise fiery outfit. Bryan: Yeah, so far, Mahomes doesn't appear to be the next Jim Druckenmiller or Todd Marinovich, which is good for Chiefs fans and bad for Alex. This would be the second time he has lost his job to a hot up-and-coming young draft pick, too. I've got a soft spot for the guy after watching him struggle for so long on some truly terrible 49ers teams. I remember the 49ers faithful chanting that they wanted David Carr -- David Carr!! -- to enter the game to improve the level of quarterback play. No one appreciates the subtle and dangerous art of the check down! Andrew: To be fair to Smith, he has been exactly what he was signed to be for the Chiefs: a safe quarterback who can help his head coach stabilize the franchise, keep things around him on schedule, help the younger players develop, then hand over to his successor when he becomes the guy who's holding the offense back. Everything I wrote about Chase Daniel's play in FOA 2017 (still available!) applies to Smith, except Smith is a better version of that hyper-conservative, functional passer. Bryan: And, of course, the best way to help your conservative, functional passer succeed for your team with Super Bowl aspirations is to cut his top receiver in the middle of the offseason for no adequately explained reason. So long, Jeremy Maclin! Andrew: Hello Travis Kelce, who was the main beneficiary during Maclin's absence last season. Kelce, those running backs, and Tyreek Hill give a lot of quality, versatility, and unpredictability around Smith, but at some point he will probably need to pass to an actual wide receiver. Right now, that guy is Chris Conley. Or Albert Wilson. Or ... wait, that's it? They could hold their wide receiver meetings in a cupboard. Bryan: I will say this, though: for as poor as their offense looks on paper, they haven't looked bad in preseason. Yes, it's just preseason, and there are not enough grains of salt in the world to take that with, but it looks … competent! Andrew: I found the Chiefs great fun to watch last year. As long as you can forget that Tyreek Hill the football jersey is Tyreek Hill the person, he's electrifying. Kelce is one of the best receiving tight ends in the game, and one of the few tight ends who can line up in any position, run any route, and even take a wide receiver screen 80 yards for a touchdown. Andy Reid does a lot with formations and packages to confound a defense, which often results in beautiful mismatches like Albert Wilson against Telvin Smith in deep centerfield coverage. Their running game is likewise one of the most creative in the league, and they are one of the few teams with a legitimately decent offensive line. Bryan: Their defense, similarly, is fun to watch, if lacking the oomph or long-term success of Denver. Eric Berry is an amazing player to watch, and grouped with Marcus Peters and Ron Parker, you have a very, very good secondary. There's no more Dontari Poe -- a victim of their tight salary cap situation -- but you have very useful players like Ramik Wilson and Chris Jones to shore up the middle. Oh, and then Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, which are great assets to have in a division with at least two below-average offensive lines. I mean, there's nothing there that matches up with the best in the league at any one position, but it's a group without weaknesses. I do have a limb I want to go out on here. With an adequate, if not amazing offense, and a solid, if not spectacular, defense, we could see NFL history made. The record for field goals in a season is 44, set by the 2011 San Francisco 49ers. And you know who their quarterback was, right? Andrew: Alex Smith, the last time he had a highly-drafted rookie quarterback on the bench behind him. Bryan: So yeah. I'm picking the Chiefs to go 9-7 and win the division -- a tough division, but fair. Now, what's their over/under again … ah hell, another round number. So, I have to decide if this is more likely a 10-6 team or an 8-8 team. That's a huge gap! Down with integer lines! I know they went 12-4 last season, but they didn't have to play the NFC East. I'm going to say the odds that they sputter due to a lack of receiving weapons are greater than the odds that they repeat double-digit wins, so I'm taking the under. Nasty line, this one. Andrew: This line screams "push" like an over-caffeinated midwife, but I'm taking the over. This is the most balanced team in the division, and good enough to take wins away from all of the other good teams around them. I think they're the best of the West, in the AFC at least. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/scr...est-overunders
Posts: 3,911

08-25-2017, 12:21 PM	#91
DaneMcCloud Supporter Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Hollywood, CA Casino cash: $10053648	And while it's true that Spencer Ware isn't a 1,000 rusher, he had 921 yards in 14 games last year. Anyone knocking Ware is a moron.
Posts: 88,960

08-25-2017, 01:17 PM	#94
O.city In Search of a Life Join Date: Jul 2009 Casino cash: $2674064	Every year it's the same stuff with the guy and every year we have people here argue with him.
Posts: 81,299

08-25-2017, 01:45 PM	#95
kccrow MVP Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Michigan Casino cash: $3167078	Andy tends to win 10 games with a talented roster... I'll take the over, but I'm not going out on a limb for 12+... tough schedule.
Posts: 12,665

08-25-2017, 01:56 PM	#96
Reerun_KC Rock Chalk Jayhawks! KU!!! Join Date: Aug 2005 Casino cash: $8301160	Haven't even played our third preseason game yet... Fun times.
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08-25-2017, 02:48 PM	#104
Ming the Merciless Emporer of Mongo Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: Milky Way Casino cash: $2887556	furthermore, i'd be willing to undertake a major bet that in 2018 or maybe 2019 , when mahomes is the starter.....the 1 and 2 will not be conley and hill we will draft or aquire someone else maybe one of them (probably hill) but not both __________________ ----* 2018 Adopt-A-Chief : Chris Conley 2017 Adopt-A-Chief : FRANK ZOMBO Click here-->*The Holy Chiefsplanet Lexicon **
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