We currently have the highest ELO (essentially the statistician's version of power rankings). We have the highest projection in wins and the best chance to win the Super Bowl.
Obviously take that with a grain of salt, since we're the only team that's played so far.
Here's how they projected our season:
@NE L <--- woohoo
PHI W
@SD W
WASH W
@HOU W
PIT W
@OAK W
DEN W
@DAL W
bye
@NYG W
BUF W
@NYJ W
OAK W
SD W
MIA W
@DEN W
That's right. 538 has us currently projected, after our week 1 win, to go 16-0.
We'll see how these adjustments change after the 1st week's games.
For the record, they have our games in Oakland, Dallas, and the Giants' as a little better than coin flips. They're also calling the @Denver game close too.
I'll update this OP Monday.
Update (9/11):
Spoiler!
All the games have been played, and here are the changes:
We're still #1 ELO in the league.
Still projected at having the most wins in the NFL this year (11.3).
Still have the league's highest projection at making the playoffs (80%), winning their division (59%), getting a 1st round bye (46%), and winning the Super Bowl (13%).
We are still projected to win EVERY game, except that 538 now has the @Cowboys game at a straight-up 50/50.
Update (9/18):
Spoiler!
A weird change or two this week.
We have been overtaken in ELO in the league, despite a strong win over the Eagles. The Patriots beat up on the Saints and overtook us by an inch.
We are still projected at having the most wins in the NFL this year (11.6).
Still have the league's highest projection at making the playoffs (up to 82%), winning their division dipped a few points (56%) and is behind the Pats (66% likely to win the AFCE), the Steelers (62% to win AFCN) and the Falcons (57% to win NFCS).
We still have the league's best chance at getting a 1st round bye (still 46%), and only the Steelers come close in the AFC with (40%). And the Chiefs have the best chance at winning the Super Bowl (14%) -- with the Falcons and Pats both netting 12%.
We are still projected to win EVERY game. Our chances in Dallas just jumped to 56%. The Week 17 game in Denver is damn near a coin toss at 51/49.
Update (9/25):
Spoiler!
We have overtaken the top spot in ELO in the league once again, since according to sabremetrics, our win over the Chargers was worth more than the Pats burying the Texans.
We are still projected at having the most wins in the NFL this year (12.3). Still have the league's highest projection at making the playoffs (up to 91%), winning their division jumped almost 20 points due to the Fade and the Donks losing (73%) and is behind only the Falcons (75% likely to win the NFCS) -- 538 gives us a better projection to win the AFCW than it gives New England to win the AFCE, which is hilarious.
We still have the league's best chance at getting a 1st round bye (up to 63%!), and nobody in the AFC comes close (Pats are next at 44%). The Chiefs have the best chance at winning the Super Bowl (up to 18%) -- with the Falcons and Pats at 16% and 14%, respectively.
We are still projected to win EVERY game. Our chances in Dallas just jumped to 57%, though they have yet to play this week. The Week 17 game in Denver is at 57%, as well, and our game in Oakland in a few weeks stands at 60%.
Update (10/3):
Spoiler!
This week, we retain the top spot in ELO in the league once again, since according to 538's sabremetrics, the next two closest teams (Pats and Falcons) both lost. Pitt gained some serious ground this week and now has the second-highest win projection, but they are currently 4th.
We are still projected at having the most wins in the NFL this year (up to 12.5 from 12.3). (Pittsburg is 2nd.) Still have the league's highest projection at making the playoffs (up to 93% -- and Pittsburgh is 2nd), winning the division jumped a few points (to 76%) and is behind only Pittsburgh (80% likely to win the AFCN).
We still have the league's best chance at getting a 1st round bye (up 5 points to 68%), and nobody in the AFC comes close (Pats are only at 26%, whereas the Steelers now sit at 41%). The Chiefs have far and away the best chance at winning the Super Bowl (up 3 points to 21%). The Falcons are the next closest team at 10% -- both the Pats and the Steelers are at 9%.
We are still projected to win EVERY game. The closest projection at this point in Week 17 in Denver, where we "only" have a 56% chance at victory. Only the TNF in Oakland gives us less than a 60% shot.
Update (10/9):
Spoiler!
We're pulling away from the field. We expand our lead with the top spot in ELO. According to 538's sabremetrics, with the Pats at #2. Pitt gained some serious ground last week , but their loss to Jacksonville condemned them to a hefty fall.
The Chiefs are still projected at having the most wins in the NFL this year (up to 13.2 from 12.5). (Green Bay is well behind us at #2 with 11.2.) Again, we have the league's highest projection at making the playoffs (up to 97%!!), winning the division jumped a few points (to 85%), and nobody in the league is close to either number (Green Bay is #2 on both fronts with 82% and 65%, respectively).
Yet again, we have the league's best chance at getting a 1st round bye (up a whopping 13 points to 81%), and nobody in the AFC comes close (Pats jumped to 39% after Pitt dropped 20 points). The Chiefs have far and away the best chance at winning the Super Bowl (up 3 more points to 24%). The Pats are at 12%, and nobody else tops 10%.
We are still projected to win EVERY game. We "only" have a 64% shot in Dallas, and "only" a 58% chance in Denver on Week 17. Nothing else is really close -- they have us at a 70% chance in Oakland on TNF, and a 77% chance against Pitt this week.
Update (10/18):
Spoiler!
Well losing means we lost our top spot in ELO. We swapped with the Pats. However, the #3 team (Atlanta) is very far behind us, so it's still the two of us at the top of the mountain.
However, the Chiefs are still projected at having the most wins in the NFL this year (down to 12.2 from 13.2). (Philadelphia, now, is well behind us at #2 with 11.5.) Again, we have the league's highest projection at making the playoffs (95%), winning the division actually went up since Denver lost (87% now). Three other teams are at 80%+ to make the playoffs (Patriots, Philadelphia, Steelers), and Philly has a 76% chance of winning the NFCE, Steelers have a 74% chance of winning the AFCN, and the Pats have a 70% chance in the AFCE.
Even given the loss, we yet again have the league's best chance at getting a 1st round bye (dropped from 81% to 72%), and nobody in the AFC comes close (Steelers jumped to 55% and the Pats crept up to 47%). The Chiefs have the best chance at winning the Super Bowl (down six points to 18%), with the Pats at 16%, and nobody else tops 10%.
We are still projected to win EVERY game. We "only" have a 59% shot in Dallas, and "only" a 60% chance in Denver on Week 17. Nothing else is really close -- they have us at a 67% chance in Oakland on TNF.
Update (10/23):
Spoiler!
Slip sliding away. We continue to give up ground to New England. And now, the #3 team (Pitt) is not too far behind us, but we're still at #2.
The Chiefs are now no longer projected to have the most wins in the NFL this year. We've fallen from 12.2 to 11.4, tying us with Philly and putting us behind New England's 11.5. We now tie with Pitt for the league's highest projection at making the playoffs (93%), and winning the division actually stayed the same since Denver also lost (still 87%). Three other teams are at 80%+ to make the playoffs (Steelers, Patriots at 91%, Philadelphia at 87%), and Pitt now has the highest chance of winning their division, at 88%. We stand at 87% in the AFCW, while the Eagles have a 74% in the NFCE, and the Patriots stand at 73% in the AFCE.
Even given the loss, we yet again have the league's best chance at getting a 1st round bye (dropped from 72% to 57%), and nobody in the AFC comes close (Steelers somehow fell to 46% and the Pats crept up to 52%). The Chiefs no longer have the best chance at winning the Super Bowl (down three points to 15%), with the Pats at 18%, and nobody else tops 10%.
We are still projected to win EVERY game. The Dallas game is now a 55/45, however, and the Denver game to close the season is at 63/37.
Update (10/31):
We stay comfortably in the #2 slot in ELO. Well behind New England, but well ahead of Pitt, who is #3.
The Chiefs are still no longer projected to have the most wins in the NFL this year. We've gone from 11.4 to 11.8, tying us with New England. Only Philly's 12.0 is better, though Pitt stands at 11.5. We barely have the league's highest projection at making the playoffs (97%) -- Pitt is at 96% and Pats are at 95%. Winning the division shot up well to 95%, the league's best mark. Pitt now has the second highest chance of winning their division, at 90%.
We still, again, have the league's best chance at getting a 1st round bye (dropped from 57% to 60%), thought the Steelers are at 54% and the Pats are at 52%, so I'm not sure how that works... The Chiefs still no longer have the best chance at winning the Super Bowl (up one points to 16%), with the Pats at 18%, and Pitt at 11%.
We are still projected to win EVERY game. The Dallas game is now a 52/48, however, and the Denver game to close the season is up to a 66%/34%.
Last edited by Direckshun; 10-31-2017 at 01:58 PM..
09-08-2017, 02:13 PM
538's prediction of the Chiefs season.
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