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Old 11-02-2015, 05:00 PM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository ***



Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB.

In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title.

Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore.

We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa.

Now, let's talk about the offseason:

LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW

The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully).

First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts.

Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things.

If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc.

I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk.

Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth?

Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years.

Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list).

Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period.

The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer.

I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be:

1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160).

Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura)

2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016.

Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell.

After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart.

3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season.

4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time.

And, as always, here are the Prospects:

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:
Spoiler!

Spoiler!

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 11-17-2015 at 09:49 AM..
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Old 12-11-2015, 04:58 PM   #1531
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Old 12-11-2015, 05:09 PM   #1532
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If Gordon does the Prison Douche plan and signs with the Cardinals, the Royals fan base will light up like Hiroshima on social media.
If he grew up a Royals fan, I doubt he can do this... he hates the Cardinals, I bet.

He sincerely wants to remain a Royal. I hope that we can pay him.
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Old 12-11-2015, 05:27 PM   #1533
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Absolutely zero chance of a long term deal for Hoz. So we know this is bullshit.

Imagine what Cain would get on the open market right now.
Except it's not. They've been on record that they fully intend to aggressively extend him. They were also upfront and frank about the likelihood of resigning Shields and other guys, so why would they smokescreen about this?

They're not dumb about the $$$ and years keeping Hoz would take, and it provides them zero benefit to come out and take that position unless they are letting Eric and Boras know they're serious about getting a new contract done.

Dayton hasn't been one to mince words or blow sunshine up the public's ass about pipedream scenarios.

Clearly, there's no guarantee, but it won't be a situation where the organization has washed their hands, giving up, and just moving on.
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Old 12-11-2015, 05:34 PM   #1534
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Can they do a cost/ benefit analysis of what having butts in the seats in September means in terms of revenue?

If so, can we guess how many wins having Gordon everday in LF compares to Dyson?
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Old 12-11-2015, 05:46 PM   #1535
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@royalsreview: Crasnick says Alex Gordon is line for a 5 year $75-80 million offer elsewhere.
Done.

If the Cards got Gordon at 5/$80 million, they could take the other $100 million they saved on Heyward and aggressively pursue Wei Yin Chen.

The Cards are better with Gordon and Chen than they are with just Heyward.

And Duncan, I have to presume that he'd have $80 million reasons to switch to RF. He won't do it for free, but if it comes as a condition of accepting that deal, I suspect he'd be open to it.
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Old 12-11-2015, 05:50 PM   #1536
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AL fans: I've done some digging on Chen; looked at arsenal and what not, watched some clips on Youtube - why is there not more buzz around the guy?

He's a legitimate 4 pitch pitcher with 2 fastballs (making him a 5 pitch pitcher). His average fastball velocity is over 91 but it's because he's a tinkerer in the Greinke mold; he adds and subtracts from his fastball a lot. I watched an AB where he had 94/95 with ease to blow away Nelson Cruz. He's a lefty so even if his velocity declines a bit, his stuff will play up as he ages.

He pitched to a mid 3's ERA in an hellish homer environment (not to mention with so many road games in Boston, Toronto and NYY). He has a superlative walk rate and his HR rate away from Camden is top shelf.

Why is this guy so far under the radar? Is there something you guys see about him that I'm missing? This guy appears to be a no-shit #2 starter with the potential to be among the top 10 LHSP in the league (non-Kershaw division). What am I missing? Why don't people seem to think he's as good as I do?
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Old 12-11-2015, 05:58 PM   #1537
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Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry View Post
If Gordon does the Prison Douche plan and signs with the Cardinals, the Royals fan base will light up like Hiroshima on social media.
I think the hate wouldn't be directed at Gordon but the royals for being cheap. Most royals fans remember our continued low payroll and don't blame the players but the organization.
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Old 12-11-2015, 06:04 PM   #1538
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I think the hate wouldn't be directed at Gordon but the royals for being cheap. Most royals fans remember our continued low payroll and don't blame the players but the organization.
If Gordon signed for 5/75 to 80 and it wasn't here, I know I'd be livid. That is a completely reasonable deal for him.
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Old 12-11-2015, 06:09 PM   #1539
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Old 12-11-2015, 06:17 PM   #1540
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Done.



If the Cards got Gordon at 5/$80 million, they could take the other $100 million they saved on Heyward and aggressively pursue Wei Yin Chen.



The Cards are better with Gordon and Chen than they are with just Heyward.



And Duncan, I have to presume that he'd have $80 million reasons to switch to RF. He won't do it for free, but if it comes as a condition of accepting that deal, I suspect he'd be open to it.

He wouldn't move to RF when he was about to bust out of baseball. Unless his deal to play RF completely crushes all other offers, it would be something I'd expect to be a real factor.

San Francisco is going to be very competitive for him, to play HIS position. Will the Cardinals go way over the top of that to play him out of position?

Gordon's defensive excellence is more about his reads and instincts than anything else. Moving him to the other side of the diamond is risky,IMO, if you're expecting prime defensive value from him.

And at 5/80, KC can be right there/very competitive.
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Old 12-11-2015, 06:45 PM   #1541
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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut View Post
AL fans: I've done some digging on Chen; looked at arsenal and what not, watched some clips on Youtube - why is there not more buzz around the guy?

He's a legitimate 4 pitch pitcher with 2 fastballs (making him a 5 pitch pitcher). His average fastball velocity is over 91 but it's because he's a tinkerer in the Greinke mold; he adds and subtracts from his fastball a lot. I watched an AB where he had 94/95 with ease to blow away Nelson Cruz. He's a lefty so even if his velocity declines a bit, his stuff will play up as he ages.

He pitched to a mid 3's ERA in an hellish homer environment (not to mention with so many road games in Boston, Toronto and NYY). He has a superlative walk rate and his HR rate away from Camden is top shelf.

Why is this guy so far under the radar? Is there something you guys see about him that I'm missing? This guy appears to be a no-shit #2 starter with the potential to be among the top 10 LHSP in the league (non-Kershaw division). What am I missing? Why don't people seem to think he's as good as I do?

He's very good, no question. I'd give even odds he'll produce close to Cueto next 5 years.
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Old 12-11-2015, 06:47 PM   #1542
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If he grew up a Royals fan, I doubt he can do this... he hates the Cardinals, I bet.

He sincerely wants to remain a Royal. I hope that we can pay him.
Didn't Gordon grow up an Orioles fan?
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Old 12-11-2015, 06:47 PM   #1543
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If Gordon signed for 5/75 to 80 and it wasn't here, I know I'd be livid. That is a completely reasonable deal for him.
Yea I think they Royals could handle that and it wouldn't be a huge gamble. If someone offers him 6 years, that would be crazy and I bet he'd take it.
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Old 12-11-2015, 06:48 PM   #1544
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Old 12-11-2015, 06:53 PM   #1545
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5 for 90 is what I think it will take. That is also very doable for the Royals as well.
I'm not so sure that contract is "doable" for the Royals in their present situation.

They're not going to want to guarantee that 5th year on a player that will be then 37. So a 5 for $90 mil. contract would look something like;

Year 1: 18 mil.
Year 2: 20 mil.
Year 3: 22 mil.
Year 4: 25 mil.
Year 5: 28 mil. (Team option - $5 mil. buyout)

IF the Royals are interested in re-signing Gordon and his price tag is around 90 mil. that is the type of contract they would have to consider.

I love Gordon, but it doesn't make sense to give that contract to a player that is 32 years old. 27 or 28, maybe.

If his price tag goes that high, the Royals would be smart to let him walk and focus on LoCain and/or Moose. Maybe give Salvy a little more $$$ for some extra years trade off. Hoz is a pipedream. He is Taylor made for Yankees stadium and I'm sure the Yankees would throw 28-30 mil. Per year at him once he hits FA at the young age of 28. And if not them, someone else will.

Gordon is a franchise icon and will always be a 'Royal' at heart, but it's time to tip our cap, thank him for his years of service and move on. Unless his price tag becomes lower than expected ( say $75 mil. over 5).


You can't cripple the future of the franchise over sentimentality.
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