Football See how Alex Smith performs in the red zone compared to rest of AFC West - Page 4

beach tribe · 07-16-2017, 09:33 AM

It was a breezy, borderline chilly, Sunday afternoon in mid-November last season. The 7-2 Kansas City Chiefs were at home against the five-loss Tampa Bay Buccaneers, rolling with a five-game winning streak that included victories over the New Orleans Saints at home and the Oakland Raiders and Carolina Panthers on the road.

It was also ... confession time ... my first visit to Arrowhead Stadium.

I will say, it was an experience I’ll never forget. The atmosphere, the tailgating, the fans ... it was all amazing. But, at the same time, it was just about as frustrating a game as you’ll ever see.

The funny thing is, though, Alex Smith had your typical, average Alex Smith performance. The Chiefs QB threw for 261 yards, had one touchdown and one rushing touchdown, along with one interception. Pretty so-so, but that seems to be then norm for No. 11. Spencer Ware rushed for 69 yards on 17 attempts, a stat line that pretty much was his average performance on the ground in 2016.

I did some digging and found the postgame column of The Kansas City Star’s Sam Mellinger. You don’t have to read too much to remind yourself of how that game panned out.

What could’ve been another ugly Chiefs win turned into an ugly-as-vomit 19-17 loss to the mediocre Buccaneers at home on Sunday the moment quarterback Alex Smith executed a bad throw, poorly leading to an interception in the end zone when even a field goal would’ve probably been enough to win.

The biggest frustration, aside from the inability of the offense to score, was the red zone performance by Smith. Most notably, Smith threw a crucial interception from Tampa Bay’s six-yard line (the one referenced by Sam above) with KC trailing 12-10 early in the fourth quarter.

I won’t spend too much time dwelling on the Smith interception, but it appeared to be a predetermined read, where Smith failed to notice Chris Conte waiting in the middle of the end zone.

And as a Chiefs fan, you probably feel that this missed throw in the tweet below by Smith is one you see every Sunday.

Click here to see Tigerupyourbutt's lover boy make one of the throws that led to his AFCW ranking:
https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2017/...red-zone-stats

The Chiefs scored in the red zone 46 percent of the time in 2016, which was 26th-best in the league. That’s about 10 percent worse than Kansas City’s red zone conversion rate in 2015.

Plus, what really makes the red zone inefficiency by Smith & Co. so frustrating is that the offensive line for the Chiefs did a pretty good job in 2016. According to Pro Football Focus, the Chiefs offensive line allowed the fewest pressures in 2016 (they tied with the Raiders) and Smith saw the lowest percentage of pressures on third down.

For an offense that operates like the Chiefs, scoring in the red zone has to be one of the most important parts of their game. Minus Tyreek Hill running wild throughout the field, there isn’t a big-play threat out there. It’s reasonable to contribute the lack of a play maker to Smith’s inability or unwillingness to take shots down the field.

So, if you were asked a trivia question on where Smith ranked in red zone passing performance in the AFC West in 2016, you’d be a winner if you answered with ... “dead last.”
2016 AFC West Red Zone QB Stats
Quarterback Passing Completion % Passing Yards TD INT Passer Rating Yards/Attempt Rushing Yards
Derek Carr 44/90 47% 306 19 1 91.9 3.4 -7
Philip Rivers 45/96 47% 333 22 2 86.5 3.5 1
Trevor Siemian 28/55 51% 164 10 1 89 3 5
Alex Smith 29/63 46% 167 11 3 72.7 2.7 51
Statistics via Pro Football Reference

The only real edge that Smith has over the other three quarterbacks actually has nothing to do with his passing game. He has 51 rushing yards; the other three have -6 combined rushing yards. Congratulations.

Trevor Siemian threw for one less touchdown than Smith did in the red zone in 2016 but had eight less pass attempts. Smith’s passer rating was 16.3 percentage points worse than the next-best rating, owned by Siemian (89).

The Chiefs are at the point now where no one reasonably expects them to be any better than an average offense so long as Smith is behind center. The AFC West won’t be an easy division to play in in 2017 by any means, and if the Chiefs want to compete for a playoff run, improvement in the red zone should be one of their highest priorities.

Red Dawg · 07-16-2017, 03:21 PM

We hardly needed an analogy to tell us that 15 tds is not good.

Reerun_KC · 07-16-2017, 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackOp

The Bucs were mugging the living shit out of Jones that game...it was so bad I actually posted video captures off my DVR. It allowed Winston to repeatedly convert some long 3rd downs. KC didn't register a sack that entire game and should have had 3-4.

The only thing I could gather was the NFL wanted Winston/Bucs in the South hunt towards the end of the season. It was terrible.

Winston is a young highly marketable qb. He should get all the calls to boost his marketability....

We will get the benefit of this calls as soon as we jettison the broke dick qb.

Pablo · 07-16-2017, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Dawg

We hardly needed an analogy to tell us that 15 tds is not good.

It's like you guys just forget his explosive rushing ability. 5 more TD's there. 20 on the season, that's more than one a game ya know. Pretty solid stuff.

BlackOp · 07-16-2017, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC

Winston is a young highly marketable qb. He should get all the calls to boost his marketability....

We will get the benefit of this calls as soon as we jettison the broke dick qb.

And that reminded me of the time Ed Hochuli told Newton "you're not old enough to get that call"...if you break that quote down, it means officiating is skewed and biased. A foul is a foul regardless of seniority.

The rules only apply if the refs feel like calling them...and certain teams get certain penalties.

The easiest way to affect the outcomes is to ignore fouls on critical plays...like in the Tampa game. Chiefs couldn't get them off the field on 3rd down....

jd1020 · 07-16-2017, 03:36 PM

What I've learned here is that one of the worst teams in the NFL in redzone TD% has a poor performing redzone QB.

Shocked.

Reerun_KC · 07-16-2017, 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackOp

And that reminded me of the time Ed Hochuli told Newton "you're not old enough to get that call"...if you break that quote down, it means officiating is skewed and biased. A foul is a foul regardless of seniority.

The rules only apply if the refs feel like calling them...and certain teams get certain penalties.

Get a franchise QB that plthe NFL can market and enjoy the benefits. Get yourself an Alex Smith' and enjoy nothing.

Coogs · 07-16-2017, 03:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TigerUppercut

Because one video summarizes a whole season of said "A lot of that was due to throws like this one."

There is another one in that same game where Smith overthrows Kelce in the redzone for a sure TD from about the 12 or so. I'm not going to look it up, but it has been posted here before. FG instead of a TD.

Coogs · 07-16-2017, 03:47 PM

I will probably catch crap about being to negative for this one, but against Denver with the clock running out in the redzone, down 8, and no timeouts left. Smith hits Hill at the 1 or so, and Hill is tackled short of the endzone, but luckily for us did not catch the ball cleanly. Had he caught it cleanly we would have lost a game we won.

That was an amazing win, and one that makes me still smile today. But we were very fortunate at the same time.

Red Dawg · 07-16-2017, 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coogs

I will probably catch crap about being to negative for this one, but against Denver with the clock running out in the redzone, down 8, and no timeouts left. Smith hits Hill at the 1 or so, and Hill is tackled short of the endzone, but luckily for us did not catch the ball cleanly. Had he caught it cleanly we would have lost a game we won.

That was an amazing win, and one that makes me still smile today. But we were very fortunate at the same time.

We dodge a bullet there. Kelce was in the middle of the end zone all alone and obviously that is where Smith should have thrown the ball.

**DaneMcCloud** · 07-16-2017, 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC

If I go **** myself. Will you film it, edit it and produce it for all of CP to see? Could we charge for this service.

Stupid, as usual.

Tell us what false information I posted, Butt****.

**DaneMcCloud** · 07-16-2017, 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC

Get a franchise QB that plthe NFL can market and enjoy the benefits. Get yourself an Alex Smith' and enjoy nothing.

Gibberish

Reerun_KC · 07-16-2017, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Gibberish

Hold on to that hope that Alex is going to lead a franchise to a Superbowl....

**DaneMcCloud** · 07-16-2017, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC

Hold on to that hope that Alex is going to lead a franchise to a Superbowl....

I never said that, you drunken old fool

milkman · 07-16-2017, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TigerUppercut

And OP, you need to provide the link or at least the name of the author when you post this kind of stuff. Basic etiquette, idiot.

So, please, who is the idiot?

The one that did actually provide the link, or the one that clearly didn't read the article, thereby missing said link?

**New World Order** · 07-16-2017, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

I never said that, you drunken old fool

Alex is franchise.

Shouldn't franchise qbs lead their teams to Super Bowls?

07-16-2017, 09:33 AM
beach tribe Keep doubting J MFing Houston Join Date: May 2007 Location: ft.lauderdale Casino cash: $4828036	See how Alex Smith performs in the red zone compared to rest of AFC West It was a breezy, borderline chilly, Sunday afternoon in mid-November last season. The 7-2 Kansas City Chiefs were at home against the five-loss Tampa Bay Buccaneers, rolling with a five-game winning streak that included victories over the New Orleans Saints at home and the Oakland Raiders and Carolina Panthers on the road. It was also ... confession time ... my first visit to Arrowhead Stadium. I will say, it was an experience I’ll never forget. The atmosphere, the tailgating, the fans ... it was all amazing. But, at the same time, it was just about as frustrating a game as you’ll ever see. The funny thing is, though, Alex Smith had your typical, average Alex Smith performance. The Chiefs QB threw for 261 yards, had one touchdown and one rushing touchdown, along with one interception. Pretty so-so, but that seems to be then norm for No. 11. Spencer Ware rushed for 69 yards on 17 attempts, a stat line that pretty much was his average performance on the ground in 2016. I did some digging and found the postgame column of The Kansas City Star’s Sam Mellinger. You don’t have to read too much to remind yourself of how that game panned out. What could’ve been another ugly Chiefs win turned into an ugly-as-vomit 19-17 loss to the mediocre Buccaneers at home on Sunday the moment quarterback Alex Smith executed a bad throw, poorly leading to an interception in the end zone when even a field goal would’ve probably been enough to win. The biggest frustration, aside from the inability of the offense to score, was the red zone performance by Smith. Most notably, Smith threw a crucial interception from Tampa Bay’s six-yard line (the one referenced by Sam above) with KC trailing 12-10 early in the fourth quarter. I won’t spend too much time dwelling on the Smith interception, but it appeared to be a predetermined read, where Smith failed to notice Chris Conte waiting in the middle of the end zone. And as a Chiefs fan, you probably feel that this missed throw in the tweet below by Smith is one you see every Sunday. Click here to see Tigerupyourbutt's lover boy make one of the throws that led to his AFCW ranking: https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2017/...red-zone-stats The Chiefs scored in the red zone 46 percent of the time in 2016, which was 26th-best in the league. That’s about 10 percent worse than Kansas City’s red zone conversion rate in 2015. Plus, what really makes the red zone inefficiency by Smith & Co. so frustrating is that the offensive line for the Chiefs did a pretty good job in 2016. According to Pro Football Focus, the Chiefs offensive line allowed the fewest pressures in 2016 (they tied with the Raiders) and Smith saw the lowest percentage of pressures on third down. For an offense that operates like the Chiefs, scoring in the red zone has to be one of the most important parts of their game. Minus Tyreek Hill running wild throughout the field, there isn’t a big-play threat out there. It’s reasonable to contribute the lack of a play maker to Smith’s inability or unwillingness to take shots down the field. So, if you were asked a trivia question on where Smith ranked in red zone passing performance in the AFC West in 2016, you’d be a winner if you answered with ... “dead last.” 2016 AFC West Red Zone QB Stats Quarterback Passing Completion % Passing Yards TD INT Passer Rating Yards/Attempt Rushing Yards Derek Carr 44/90 47% 306 19 1 91.9 3.4 -7 Philip Rivers 45/96 47% 333 22 2 86.5 3.5 1 Trevor Siemian 28/55 51% 164 10 1 89 3 5 Alex Smith 29/63 46% 167 11 3 72.7 2.7 51 Statistics via Pro Football Reference The only real edge that Smith has over the other three quarterbacks actually has nothing to do with his passing game. He has 51 rushing yards; the other three have -6 combined rushing yards. Congratulations. Trevor Siemian threw for one less touchdown than Smith did in the red zone in 2016 but had eight less pass attempts. Smith’s passer rating was 16.3 percentage points worse than the next-best rating, owned by Siemian (89). The Chiefs are at the point now where no one reasonably expects them to be any better than an average offense so long as Smith is behind center. The AFC West won’t be an easy division to play in in 2017 by any means, and if the Chiefs want to compete for a playoff run, improvement in the red zone should be one of their highest priorities.
Posts: 21,429

07-16-2017, 03:21 PM	#46
Red Dawg Going home eventually Join Date: Dec 2002 Casino cash: $4772858	We hardly needed an analogy to tell us that 15 tds is not good. __________________ If you're not first you're last!
Posts: 30,407

07-16-2017, 03:36 PM	#50
jd1020 In Search of a Life Join Date: Nov 2010 Casino cash: $7742645	What I've learned here is that one of the worst teams in the NFL in redzone TD% has a poor performing redzone QB. Shocked.
Posts: 24,322

07-16-2017, 03:47 PM	#53
Coogs In Search of a Life Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Northern Kansas Casino cash: $1624349	I will probably catch crap about being to negative for this one, but against Denver with the clock running out in the redzone, down 8, and no timeouts left. Smith hits Hill at the 1 or so, and Hill is tackled short of the endzone, but luckily for us did not catch the ball cleanly. Had he caught it cleanly we would have lost a game we won. That was an amazing win, and one that makes me still smile today. But we were very fortunate at the same time.
Posts: 21,608