Royals *** Official Royals Repository, Part 4 *** - Page 16

duncan_idaho · 10:46 PM

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
3. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
4. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
5. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
6. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
7. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

8. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

kcchiefsus · 07-30-2015, 03:26 AM

BTW, when is Zobrist expected with the team? Wasn't Tulowitzki traded after the Zobrist trade? He already played in a game for the Blue Jays. What's the hold up?

Hootie · 07-30-2015, 04:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcchiefsus

BTW, when is Zobrist expected with the team? Wasn't Tulowitzki traded after the Zobrist trade? He already played in a game for the Blue Jays. What's the hold up?

Today. We played a 11 AM central game yesterday

**alnorth** · 07-30-2015, 08:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcchiefsus

God damn, they better. Need to threaten FSKC they won't sign a new contract unless they can renegotiate now.

they were 2 years out. We're 4 years out.

cosmo20002 · 07-30-2015, 08:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcchiefsus

God damn, they better. Need to threaten FSKC they won't sign a new contract unless they can renegotiate now.

That's not much of a threat, since they obviously would sign a new contract if it was the best deal.

They currently have one of the worst TV contracts, which is not suprising considering they were one of the worst teams, for many years, when it was signed a few years ago. They get about $20M/year.

Unfortunately, they are locked in through 2019. I wouldn't think there would be a whole lot of incentive for Fox to re-do the deal with an extension at this point since they could easily suck again by 2020.

Hootie · 07-30-2015, 08:19 AM

Cable tv bubble clearly isn't going to burst. We'll be fine

KCUnited · 07-30-2015, 08:23 AM

We're the Sal Perez of tv deals.

Lex Luthor · 07-30-2015, 08:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCUnited

We're the Sal Perez of tv deals.

That's a great analogy.

Maybe the Royals should tell Sal that he'll get a new deal when the Royals get a new TV deal.

**Anyong Bluth** · 07-30-2015, 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth

they were 2 years out. We're 4 years out.

Who controls the number of games broadcast? Do the Royals or Fox.

It's a stupid move overall, but that might be their only leverage if they have any.

Best you can hope for is them willing to renegotiate after next season. FSKC has a giant and sustained market share - no different than why kctv covets having those Chiefs games. Ad rates significantly increase then.

Seriously, where else can you reach virtually every single demographic with higher viewership? Nowhere.

Baseball has a much wider average demographic.

Every year they have eye popping numbers and another year to drive up the numbers on the contract will only increase the contract size.

It's no different than signing a guy to a giant long-term contract. After a few years, that contract looks pretty friendly by comparison to where the market has been now set for salaries.

Fox probably does the same for us as St. Louis because locking it in earlier is going to financially wise on the back end.

**Anyong Bluth** · 07-30-2015, 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

Cable tv bubble clearly isn't going to burst. We'll be fine

You're right. Live sports are DVR proof. Ad rates are only going to climb for sports and live event programming. It runs twofold because other types of programming keep shrinking in audience. People watch on-demand and younger generations use youtube, Hulu, and other streaming outlets on the Internet.

ChiefsCountry · 07-30-2015, 09:13 AM

Cardinals also had some extra leverage where they can go to FOX Sports Midwest and say we will team up with the Blues and create our own network. No way does FOX want to lose both of their cash cows.

**alnorth** · 07-30-2015, 09:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cosmo20002

They currently have one of the worst TV contracts, which is not suprising considering they were one of the worst teams, for many years, when it was signed a few years ago. They get about $20M/year.

Unfortunately, they are locked in through 2019. I wouldn't think there would be a whole lot of incentive for Fox to re-do the deal with an extension at this point since they could easily suck again by 2020.

Our contract is related more to the time we signed it than how bad we were. Bad small market teams are getting huge contracts, and good teams who signed at the same time we did had bad contracts. We signed right before the sports TV bubble.

Hootie · 07-30-2015, 09:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anyong Bluth

You're right. Live sports are DVR proof. Ad rates are only going to climb for sports and live event programming. It runs twofold because other types of programming keep shrinking in audience. People watch on-demand and younger generations use youtube, Hulu, and other streaming outlets on the Internet.

as long as blackouts continue, we'll be fine.

if you can start buying MLB.TV without blackout restriction ... that could be a huge issue for us

**alnorth** · 07-30-2015, 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

as long as blackouts continue, we'll be fine.

if you can start buying MLB.TV without blackout restriction ... that could be a huge issue for us

I dont think MLB will do that anytime soon, barring courts or congress.

Nightfyre · 07-30-2015, 09:51 AM

What really needs to happen is the league needs to fix the economics of the game. The Dodgers have to be near 250 million on their payroll now. If they add Price too? Dumb.

bsp4444 · 07-30-2015, 09:53 AM

When did we sign the current contract? Seems like a hella long time to be stuck in it. Dodgers get $250 million to our $20 million...

07-14-2015, 11:05 PM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1750308	* Official Royals Repository, Part 4 * In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions. Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins One month in: Looking strong All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins. Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro! All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one. Division Preview Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them. Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out. And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture. The Royals will be a division winner IF ... 1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work 2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts 3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland 4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy 5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back. Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015: Spoiler! 1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1 2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016. 3. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level. 4. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season. 5. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup. 6. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly. 7. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up. Spoiler! 8. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags. 9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing. 10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with. 11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced. 12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch. 13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them. 14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching. 15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list. 16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far. 17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble. Last edited by duncan_idaho; 10-06-2015 at 10:46 PM..
Posts: 21,087

07-30-2015, 03:26 AM	#226
kcchiefsus Banned Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Nowhere Casino cash: $10017949	BTW, when is Zobrist expected with the team? Wasn't Tulowitzki traded after the Zobrist trade? He already played in a game for the Blue Jays. What's the hold up?
Posts: 4,649

07-30-2015, 08:19 AM	#230
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	Cable tv bubble clearly isn't going to burst. We'll be fine
Posts: 56,356

07-30-2015, 08:23 AM	#231
KCUnited Cheat Death Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Land of Drincoln Casino cash: $2288244	We're the Sal Perez of tv deals.
Posts: 33,925

07-30-2015, 09:13 AM	#235
ChiefsCountry The Insider Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Lake of the Ozarks Casino cash: $2318752	Cardinals also had some extra leverage where they can go to FOX Sports Midwest and say we will team up with the Blues and create our own network. No way does FOX want to lose both of their cash cows.
Posts: 49,607

07-30-2015, 09:51 AM	#239
Nightfyre MVP Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Helena, MT Casino cash: $3638849	What really needs to happen is the league needs to fix the economics of the game. The Dodgers have to be near 250 million on their payroll now. If they add Price too? Dumb.
Posts: 18,552

07-30-2015, 09:53 AM	#240
bsp4444 Veteran Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Liberty, MO Casino cash: $1665305	When did we sign the current contract? Seems like a hella long time to be stuck in it. Dodgers get $250 million to our $20 million...
Posts: 1,912