Patriots coach Bill Belichick will try to be the first to beat Chiefs’ Patrick Mahome

[Hammock Parties]

https://www.kansascity.com/sports/sp...219921510.html

Patrick Mahomes is the betting favorite to win the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award. He is surrounded by the league’s fastest man, leading returning rusher and either the best or second-best tight end. His coach is widely viewed as a transcendent innovator.

And now the league’s greatest defensive mind is coming for his throat.

The Chiefs are starring in the most interesting matchup of the season so far, at the Patriots on the league’s marquee television platform on Sunday night. This is the most difficult assignment in the NFL — Foxborough at night, New England coach Bill Belichick armed with extra prep time.

“He is the best at it,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said.

He was talking about Belichick’s ability to imagine, create, install, coach and execute a game plan from scratch every week, based purely upon an opponent’s inherent and usually subtle weaknesses that he is often the first to detect. One week’s plan has precious little to do with the last, and studying past tendencies or strategies is often a waste of time because Belichick deals only in the now.

But that doesn’t mean we can’t guess.

“This is so much fun,” said Ron Jaworski, the former quarterback and famed film analyst now working with NFL Films. “It’s crazy. I love it. This is football in today’s modern era.”

Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson may be instructive here. He completed 22 of 33 passes for 301 yards in a 36-33 loss at New England last year. The performance as a rookie featured several big gains on broken plays, where Watson evaded tacklers or otherwise created more time than the Patriots could defend. The Texans also had success with motions and fakes, the sort of “dressing up” that is a prominent feature of Reid’s offenses.

Then, in the 2018 season opener vs. New England, Watson completed just 17 of 34 passes for 176 yards. Watson has completed at least 60 percent of his passes for at least 310 yards in every other game this season.

The Patriots seemed to take a different tact with him the second time, rarely blitzing — just seven times on 42 dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus — in exchange for more coverage and gap discipline. Basically, the Patriots wanted to keep Watson in the pocket, and force him to make throws to his second or third read through smaller windows.

Even so, most of his adjustments are more subtle. Shade a cornerback to the outside, instead of the inside. Position a safety two yards deeper, or closer to the sideline, to defend against a particular route. Belichick has not blitzed often, or exotically, this year.

Jaworski thinks he might make an exception on Sunday.

“If I’m Bill Belichick’s defensive coordinator, I’m going to mix it up,” Jaworski said. “I’m going to disguise things. Patrick is still a young quarterback. He’s played above his years, no question about that, but there are plays he’s left on the field by darting from the pocket, moving away from the intended receiver. They’ve been masked by great success, but there are plays left on the field because of mistakes. And that’s not surprising. He’s still a young quarterback.

“So I think Bill will try to take that first read away. Make him a little skittish in the pocket, and have to go somewhere else. Move his eye, and try to force him to make mistakes. Bill’s not a heavy blitz guy, but I think you’ll see some exotic blitzes to try to get Patrick off his spot, particularly early. Get him playing fast early.”

Toward that end, the Broncos may have given the Patriots a rough draft of the manuscript. They had Mahomes consistently confused and rushed in the first half, disguising blitzes to beat his protection calls and mixing coverages to keep him unsure where to throw.

Mahomes had much more success after halftime, of course. He is learning so fast, and in the second half he won the mental test before the snap and the creative one after.

The difference against New England would be a smaller margin for error. Catching up to and overtaking Case Keenum’s offense is a smaller challenge than doing the same with Tom Brady’s.

If Belichick can confuse Mahomes early, like Jaworski said, get him playing fast, by the time he settles in and starts completing left-handed passes and converting second-and-30s, it could be too late.

It’s a theory, anyway. None have worked so far, but none of their authors have been as qualified as Belichick, none of the challenges as steep as this one.

[Lzen]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

Please do this... Watson's reads and arm are both slower than Mahommes by a lot...

Yep. When I read that I was thinking back to the Steelers game. Mahommes shredded their zones

[JakeF]

Originally Posted by Tribal Warfare

Deion Sanders unretired?

Deion would be our best cornerback right now.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by OKchiefs

Anyone think there might be a lot of pressure on Mahomes this game? Obviously he's dealt with drops from receivers and has faced some top notch defenses, but he has 1 touchdown pass the last 10 quarters. That obviously isn't all his fault, but if he has another 0-1 touchdown performance I could see some media and fan scrutiny coming his way. New England has a pretty pedestrian defense, so hopefully this is the game he again throws for 3 touchdowns.

You expect Pat to throw 50 touchdowns this year don't you?

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by RunKC

This is gonna be the game where Pat can prove he’s just as smart as Peyton Manning. If he can read defense and pass Bill’s challenges this early then holy shit will the Mahomes train start flaming fire.

Dude.

Bortles got 400/4 on these clowns.

The Patriots ain't shit.

[MahiMike]

In the end of the day (I hate that phrase but is sometimes useful)...you can only scheme so much before talent outweighs the scheme. Pat's best asset is that big brain of his to go along with the arm. He and Andy will figure it out.

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Patrick Mahomes is 6-0.

That is pretty crazy.

He's beaten the Broncos IN Denver twice, he's beaten two AFC playoff teams, and he's beaten the Chargers and 49ers convincingly.

God. What a time.

[highBOLTage]

Originally Posted by BlackOp

Patriots didn't actually beat the Texans...the refs literally handed them the game with 23 seconds left. Check out :25 of this video. Ball clearly hits the ground...even after review they let it stand and "Terrific Tom" rolls away with a fake comeback.

Did the ball move? No. Did the ground help him catch the ball? No. Bert Emanuel rule. Only been a rule for 18 years...

[BlackOp]

Originally Posted by RunKC

I think Bill is going to try to make Mahomes convert long ass drives. 65, 70, 75 yards all night.

Obviously Bill is gonna play deep to keep things in front of him, not give a shit if Mahomes gets decent chunk plays between the 20’s because he will focus on playing zone defense in the red zone to take away windows and have spies ready for Pat if he runs.

This is gonna be the game where Pat can prove he’s just as smart as Peyton Manning. If he can read defense and pass Bill’s challenges this early then holy shit will the Mahomes train start flaming fire.

Someone posted a passing chart on Mahomes on a Pats forum.

He likes to roll/pass right when pressured...It'll be interesting if Belichick schemes around exploiting this tendency.

It's also interesting that noone brings up Patricia leaving for Detroit..and how this has changed the defense.

[BlackOp]

Originally Posted by highBOLTage

Did the ball move? No. Did the ground help him catch the ball? No. Bert Emanuel rule. Only been a rule for 18 years...

Horseshit...that play gets called incomplete 99.9% of the time....unless it's a game winner for Terrific Tom.

[Simply Red]

Originally Posted by RunKC

I think Bill is going to try to make Mahomes convert long ass drives. 65, 70, 75 yards all night.

Obviously Bill is gonna play deep to keep things in front of him, not give a shit if Mahomes gets decent chunk plays between the 20’s because he will focus on playing zone defense in the red zone to take away windows and have spies ready for Pat if he runs.

It’s gonna be interesting bc Bill is really good at ****ing with young QB’s. He is kinda like Andy. He shows you an alignment and then changes it right before the ball is snapped to confuse the QB.

Last week wasn’t exactly a learning situation for Pat. It was just playing against great personnel.

This is gonna be the game where Pat can prove he’s just as smart as Peyton Manning. If he can read defense and pass Bill’s challenges this early then holy shit will the Mahomes train start flaming fire.

well yeah - they've basically said that they're playing 3/2/6 Defense - Always sounds good on paper - let's see how it works out for them.

[Lprechaun]

I fail to see how this game has the "pressure" game title applied to it for us let alone Mahomes as a QB.
The Patriots have far more to lose than we do.
We lose we lost to a true dynasty team, against someone who does well against young QBs.
We win it buries the Patriots into wild card position and only so because they have a horrible division and will win it.

[Lprechaun]

Also, i think we slaughter them

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by BlackOp

Horseshit...that play gets called incomplete 99.9% of the time....unless it's a game winner for Terrific Tom.

I disagree. Looks like a catch to me. That ball was secure

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by BlackOp

Someone posted a passing chart on Mahomes on a Pats forum.

He likes to roll/pass right when pressured...It'll be interesting if Belichick schemes around exploiting this tendency.

It's also interesting that noone brings up Patricia leaving for Detroit..and how this has changed the defense.

If they force him to go left, he will still make plays throwing on the run across his body. Did this all the time in college. The defense is better off forcing him to stay inside the pocket.

[Easy 6]

Were I Bully Bill, I'd attack the right side of the line with Devey in there and try to force Money out of the pocket to his left... and it still wont matter when he throws a Mahoming missile across his body to Kelce or whoever else on the other side of the field