Chiefs Late night bullshit: The path to a wild card berth. - Page 2

Direckshun · 04:21 AM

The records of teams to get wildcards in the AFC of the last three years:

2013: Chiefs 11-5, Chargers 9-7

2012: Colts 11-5, Bengals 10-6

2011: Steelers 12-4, Bengals 9-7

In the last three years, 100% of the AFC teams that have finished 10-6 or better got into the playoffs, at least as Wild Cards.

In the last three years, three non-division winners finished 9-7, and only the 2011 Titans failed to secure a Wild Card berth. Zero teams with 8-8 or worse have received a WC berth.

That roughly means that if you're not winning your division in today's AFC, you've got a 0% chance to get in if you finish 8-8 or worse. Teams that finish 9-7 have a 2/3s chance of getting in. And teams that finish better than that get in 100% of the time.

The Chiefs have five games for the remainder of the season that they should definitely win:

Week 8, hosting the Rams
Week 9, hosting the Jets
Week 10, hosting the Bills
Week 12, hosting the Raiders
Week 15, visiting Oakland

With those 5 games in our pocket -- and obviously nothing is a sure thing -- that should give us a starting position of 7-2.

Which means, to get to that magical 9-7 threshold, we need two more wins. And three more wins if we want to be a sure thing.

The remaining games to get two wins from:

Week 5, visiting San Francisco
Week 7, visiting San Diego
Week 11, hosting the Seahawks
Week 13, hosting the Broncos
Week 14, visiting Arizona
Week 16, visiting Pittsburgh
Week 17, hosting the Chargers

I would hope the Chiefs could secure at least two more wins here, but I'll be damned if I know where it is.

Shit, this year's schedule is brutal.

TLO · 10-23-2014, 07:06 AM

The Buffalo game is a road game.

**BigMeatballDave** · 10-23-2014, 07:11 AM

11 wins isn't a lock for a playoff spot in this division. Not this season.

**BigMeatballDave** · 10-23-2014, 07:14 AM

Arizona won 10 last year and missed.

**Mav** · 10-23-2014, 07:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigMeatballDave

11 wins isn't a lock for a playoff spot in this division. Not this season.

Well, what other afc team is going to win 11 games? It's very possible the chiefs, chargers, Broncos all make the playoffs

O.city · 10-23-2014, 08:09 AM

Other than the broncos, there isn't a team there that we can't beat. Not that we will, just that we could.

So that's cool I guess

**OnTheWarpath15** · 10-23-2014, 08:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

Other than the broncos, there isn't a team there that we can't beat. Not that we will, just that we could.

So that's cool I guess

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but can you honestly look at our remaining schedule and say there's a team that can't beat us?

If we're being honest, this team is bipolar as ****. We have no idea on a week to week basis who is showing up.

Unless they figure out who the **** they are and start playing like it consistently, the rest of this season is going to be a roller coaster.

O.city · 10-23-2014, 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but can you honestly look at our remaining schedule and say there's a team that can't beat us?

If we're being honest, this team is bipolar as ****. We have no idea on a week to week basis who is showing up.

Unless they figure out who the **** they are and start playing like it consistently, the rest of this season is going to be a roller coaster.

Othe than the Titans game which seems to have been an outlier, which game have they not "shown" up for though?

They've lost to two tough teams on the road on the last possession.

**OnTheWarpath15** · 10-23-2014, 08:37 AM

I guess "show up" was a poor choice of words. They've been competitive, but they've also been extremely fortunate.

Some cobwebs on the brain this AM so I'm having a hard time explaining what I mean. I guess I'm wondering if the team that is balanced, disciplined and pushing the ball down the field is going to show up - or the team that forgets they have the best RB in football, bad game management, a ton of penalties, etc shows up.

**** it. Maybe I'll revisit this later. I know what I'm seeing, I just can't seem to articulate it.

Sorry.

Kidd Lex · 10-23-2014, 08:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mavericks Ace

Awwwwe. I see you don't like my level headed approach. It's not cliche. Everything I have ever done, sports coaching, military has been about focusing on the task at home. I didn't say you had to do it.....

It's a message board, discussions here have nothing to do with outcomes on the field. I don't see you going in to Vailpass threads talking one sloppy halftime cougar bj at a time.

O.city · 10-23-2014, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

I guess "show up" was a poor choice of words. They've been competitive, but they've also been extremely fortunate.

Some cobwebs on the brain this AM so I'm having a hard time explaining what I mean. I guess I'm wondering if the team that is balanced, disciplined and pushing the ball down the field is going to show up - or the team that forgets they have the best RB in football, bad game management, a ton of penalties, etc shows up.

**** it. Maybe I'll revisit this later. I know what I'm seeing, I just can't seem to articulate it.

Sorry.

Fortunate for what?

I get what you're saying, but even with playing the toughest schedule in the afc up to this point, I'd say they're pretty misfortune to not be 5-1 atleast.

I think we can all agree they should have won in San fran. I'd imagine that's what you're talking about, games like that.

I don't know what happened against the titans, but I think it's pretty fair to say at this point, this team is more talented and better than we all thought it would be.

Direckshun · 10-23-2014, 09:00 AM

The Chiefs are actually the least penalized offense in the NFL.

Like, two of those penalties were backbreakers in the 49ers game, but the point stands.

I can't speak to defense, however. I'm sure everybody's getting flagged out the ass on defense this year.

Fritz88 · 10-23-2014, 09:05 AM

Rams wont be a cake walk.
Posted via Mobile Device

Direckshun · 10-23-2014, 09:06 AM

The idea that the Chiefs are "fortunate" is hilarious.

The Chiefs suffered several really bad injuries on our defense and lost what passes for our #2 WR, and had to stitch together an OL. We also had to compensate for no Charles for two weeks.

We've generated almost no turnovers. We're beating teams by controlling the ball, converting on 3rds, and running the ball hard.

We played keepaway from Rivers and Manning, and played keepaway from Kaepernick in the 1st half (before the 49ers turned the tables on us in the 2nd). The Dolphins are the only team you could argue straight-up beat themselves, but we weren't playing down to their level.

I think this is all a kneejerk reaction to the 2013 season, when a worse Chiefs team than this year's faced the best luck ever with their schedule and opponents.

This year, we're earning it.

RunKC · 10-23-2014, 09:07 AM

Well it's good that right now we have the tiebreaker over SD and MIA.

SD has an absolutely brutal schedule overall from now until the end of the year. They go to Denver and then Miami. Then their last 5 games are insane.

All we have to do is take care of business. If we win at Pitt than that will be huge. We need to be around 1 game of SD for the rest of the season so that it's in our hands in week 17 at home.

RunKC · 10-23-2014, 09:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Direckshun

The idea that the Chiefs are "fortunate" is hilarious.

The Chiefs suffered several really bad injuries on our defense and lost what passes for our #2 WR, and had to stitch together an OL. We also had to compensate for no Charles for two weeks.

We've generated almost no turnovers. We're beating teams by controlling the ball, converting on 3rds, and running the ball hard.

We played keepaway from Rivers and Manning, and played keepaway from Kaepernick in the 1st half (before the 49ers turned the tables on us in the 2nd). The Dolphins are the only team you could argue straight-up beat themselves, but we weren't playing down to their level.

I think this is all a kneejerk reaction to the 2013 season, when a worse Chiefs team than this year's faced the best luck ever with their schedule and opponents.

This year, we're earning it.

Agreed. We are 2-2 against winning teams (3-2 when Miami wins vs Jags this week).
We've beaten 2 5-2 teams.
SD hasn't beaten a winning team all season. If anything, the Chargers are the 2013 Chiefs.

09-30-2014, 01:35 AM
Direckshun __ Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Springpatch Casino cash: $4353447	Late night bullshit: The path to a wild card berth. The records of teams to get wildcards in the AFC of the last three years: 2013: Chiefs 11-5, Chargers 9-7 2012: Colts 11-5, Bengals 10-6 2011: Steelers 12-4, Bengals 9-7 In the last three years, 100% of the AFC teams that have finished 10-6 or better got into the playoffs, at least as Wild Cards. In the last three years, three non-division winners finished 9-7, and only the 2011 Titans failed to secure a Wild Card berth. Zero teams with 8-8 or worse have received a WC berth. That roughly means that if you're not winning your division in today's AFC, you've got a 0% chance to get in if you finish 8-8 or worse. Teams that finish 9-7 have a 2/3s chance of getting in. And teams that finish better than that get in 100% of the time. The Chiefs have five games for the remainder of the season that they should definitely win: Week 8, hosting the Rams Week 9, hosting the Jets Week 10, hosting the Bills Week 12, hosting the Raiders Week 15, visiting Oakland With those 5 games in our pocket -- and obviously nothing is a sure thing -- that should give us a starting position of 7-2. Which means, to get to that magical 9-7 threshold, we need two more wins. And three more wins if we want to be a sure thing. The remaining games to get two wins from: Week 5, visiting San Francisco Week 7, visiting San Diego Week 11, hosting the Seahawks Week 13, hosting the Broncos Week 14, visiting Arizona Week 16, visiting Pittsburgh Week 17, hosting the Chargers I would hope the Chiefs could secure at least two more wins here, but I'll be damned if I know where it is. Shit, this year's schedule is brutal. Last edited by Direckshun; 09-30-2014 at 04:21 AM..
Posts: 59,277

10-23-2014, 07:06 AM	#16
TLO Life is changing.. Join Date: Jul 2012 Location: NW Missouri Casino cash: $1894900	The Buffalo game is a road game.
Posts: 38,930

10-23-2014, 07:11 AM	#17
BigMeatballDave GBM 8-12-15 Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Dayton, Oh. Casino cash: $10052154	11 wins isn't a lock for a playoff spot in this division. Not this season.
Posts: 59,997

10-23-2014, 07:14 AM	#18
BigMeatballDave GBM 8-12-15 Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Dayton, Oh. Casino cash: $10052154	Arizona won 10 last year and missed.
Posts: 59,997

10-23-2014, 08:09 AM	#20
O.city In Search of a Life Join Date: Jul 2009 Casino cash: $2724064	Other than the broncos, there isn't a team there that we can't beat. Not that we will, just that we could. So that's cool I guess
Posts: 81,277

10-23-2014, 08:37 AM	#23
OnTheWarpath15 MVP Join Date: Sep 2005 Casino cash: $4901115	I guess "show up" was a poor choice of words. They've been competitive, but they've also been extremely fortunate. Some cobwebs on the brain this AM so I'm having a hard time explaining what I mean. I guess I'm wondering if the team that is balanced, disciplined and pushing the ball down the field is going to show up - or the team that forgets they have the best RB in football, bad game management, a ton of penalties, etc shows up. **** it. Maybe I'll revisit this later. I know what I'm seeing, I just can't seem to articulate it. Sorry.
Posts: 60,264

10-23-2014, 09:00 AM	#26
Direckshun __ Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Springpatch Casino cash: $4353447	The Chiefs are actually the least penalized offense in the NFL. Like, two of those penalties were backbreakers in the 49ers game, but the point stands. I can't speak to defense, however. I'm sure everybody's getting flagged out the ass on defense this year.
Posts: 59,277

10-23-2014, 09:05 AM	#27
Fritz88 Custom User Title Join Date: Nov 2008 Casino cash: $8855943	Rams wont be a cake walk. Posted via Mobile Device
Posts: 12,706

10-23-2014, 09:06 AM	#28
Direckshun __ Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Springpatch Casino cash: $4353447	The idea that the Chiefs are "fortunate" is hilarious. The Chiefs suffered several really bad injuries on our defense and lost what passes for our #2 WR, and had to stitch together an OL. We also had to compensate for no Charles for two weeks. We've generated almost no turnovers. We're beating teams by controlling the ball, converting on 3rds, and running the ball hard. We played keepaway from Rivers and Manning, and played keepaway from Kaepernick in the 1st half (before the 49ers turned the tables on us in the 2nd). The Dolphins are the only team you could argue straight-up beat themselves, but we weren't playing down to their level. I think this is all a kneejerk reaction to the 2013 season, when a worse Chiefs team than this year's faced the best luck ever with their schedule and opponents. This year, we're earning it.
Posts: 59,277

10-23-2014, 09:07 AM	#29
RunKC Andy Reid Supporter Join Date: Apr 2012 Casino cash: $2229611	Well it's good that right now we have the tiebreaker over SD and MIA. SD has an absolutely brutal schedule overall from now until the end of the year. They go to Denver and then Miami. Then their last 5 games are insane. All we have to do is take care of business. If we win at Pitt than that will be huge. We need to be around 1 game of SD for the rest of the season so that it's in our hands in week 17 at home. __________________ Mike Greenberg@Espngreeny I can’t fathom what it must be like to be a fan of the #Chiefs. Adopt a Chief: Noah Gray
Posts: 46,115