Scout on 2013 draft "It was a disaster, everyone thought Fisher would be good"

[Quesadilla Joe]

Peter King had a nice breakdown of the 2013 draft in his most recent MMQB article. He also makes an argument that maybe Pioli wasn't so bad.

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2015/09/21/n...ng-quarterback

Spoiler!

It’s not altogether strange for the top of a draft to crap out. But so fast? That could be the lasting story of the 2013 first round. The first overall pick, tackle Eric Fisher, is on the bench with the Chiefs. Four players in the top half of the first round look like looming busts, and the bottom half of the round looks stronger than the top half already. Keep in mind that the 2013 class was not evaluated to be particularly strong. There wasn’t a no-doubt quarterback, and the skill positions and corners were below average. But who’d have thought it would look this bad 34 games later?

Surveying the carnage leads to one overriding conclusion: We hype drafts to a silly level of expectation. We overrate players just because of where they are picked. We can’t wait to see how they play before we rate success and failure. And then, a couple of years later, we look at a draft like the 2013 draft and say with some incredulity, W-w-w-what happened?

As one longtime scout told me Saturday when I showed him the results of the draft: “That draft is a disaster—a total riddle. You simply can’t predict how players will do in a different environment. Everyone thought Eric Fisher would be good. Everyone. I thought Jonathan Cooper would be good. Easy pick. There is a randomness to the draft that you can’t explain.”

I’m going to get to the lesson of why a volume of compensatory picks should be as valuable as first-round picks in a few moments. But first, learn a draft lesson this morning. The badness of the 2013 draft:

• There is not a star among the top dozen picks of the first round. Not close. Ziggy Ansah, maybe. But if the best player in the top 12 of a draft after 2.1 years is a guy averaging half a sack per start, that’s a terrible bit of testimony to the quality of a draft.

• The No. 1 overall pick, tackle Eric Fisher of the Chiefs, lost his left tackle job to the 74th pick of the 2012 draft, Donald Stephenson. And then, under cloudy circumstances, Fisher lost the right tackle job—either because of an ankle sprain or poor performance—to a tackle on the street, Jah Reid, signed just seven days before the season-opener. The Chiefs will have paid Fisher $17.7 million by the end of this season, and they’ve got to be having major buyer’s remorse for a guy who, according to Pro Football Focus, was the 34th-rated right tackle in the NFL his rookie year (among 36 who played at least eight games) and the 28th-rated left tackle in 2014.

• The No. 3 pick, defensive end Dion Jordan, is suspended for the season for violating the league’s substance-abuse program, his third substance suspension in three years. He has started one game and had three sacks.

• The No. 9 pick, cornerback Dee Milliner of the Jets, had a poor rookie year, tore his Achilles last year, and saw the Jets sign three free-agent cornerbacks this year to play above him … then needed wrist surgery in camp (his seventh football-related surgery of his life) and will be sidelined until at least midseason. So it’s not all his fault, certainly. But he hasn’t been a profitable pick for the Jets.

• The No. 16 pick, quarterback E.J. Manuel, is the third passer on the Buffalo depth chart after 14 underwhelming starts in his first two seasons.

Then there are the marginal starters: tackle Luke Joeckel of Jacksonville (second overall), defensive end Barkevious Mingo of Cleveland (sixth overall), guard Jonathan Cooper of Arizona (seventh overall), and cornerback D.J. Hayden of Oakland (12th overall). So in just 28 months, eight of the top 16 picks have raised major questions about their future. That is significantly more than the major questions in the second half of the first round. The last 16 picks, overall, are clearly better than the top 16. Compare for yourself:



If I were to rank the top quarter of that draft’s first round, I’d go this way:

1. Sheldon Richardson (13th overall).
2. Travis Frederick (31st).
3. Desmond Trufant (22nd).
4. Kyle Long (20th).
5. Xavier Rhodes (25th).
6. DeAndre Hopkins (27th).
7. Sharrif Floyd (23rd).
8. Ziggy Ansah (5th).

Quite an indictment of the scouting process in 2013, that six of the top eight players may have been picked from No. 20 and beyond. There are several messages here. The easy thing to say is that scouts stink, and the thought process of teams is flawed. What I would say is that scouting is an incredibly inexact science. Joeckel and Fisher have struggled with the outside speed of the pro game, though Joeckel, specifically, played against speed rushers on the outside of a spread system at Texas A&M. So how do you figure him struggling so mightily? I think it’s also the case that some years, and this one certainly appears to be one, are just not top-heavy. The strength of the draft looked to be on the outside of the offensive and defensive lines, and it’s been nothing like that.

Two other points need to be made.

In this draft-evaluation business, you’ve got to be careful with making absolute statements. For example, GM Scott Pioli was ridden out of Kansas City after four seasons, in early 2013. But from his four drafts come the guts of the current Chiefs defense that looks so good right now: Dontari Poe and Allen Bailey on the line, 2014 NFL sack leader Justin Houston (with the 70th pick in 2011) at outside linebacker, and Eric Berry in the defensive backfield (if he can continue his comeback from lymphoma). The left tackle, Stephenson, was a Pioli third-round pick in 2012. Pioli had his share of misses, and didn’t leave Andy Reid with a quarterback of the future. But his hits go to show you—and the team’s relative success since his dismissal—that the tar-and-feathering business in personnel evaluation can be pretty misleading.

Also, I’ve become convinced—and this started with the way Jimmy Johnson/Jerry Jones were wheeling and dealing when Johnson got to the Cowboys—that the number of picks in a draft is far more important than the location of the picks. With lots of low-round gems, Johnson proved that collecting lots of picks was the way to go since history says teams are bound to be wrong on even some of the seemingly surest things. Take the Ravens. They are the biggest believers in the compensatory pick system. That’s the lottery in which teams lose pricey free agents and collect picks between the third and seventh rounds in future drafts as compensation for the losses. In the past five drafts, the Ravens have had 15 compensatory picks and turned them into two key pieces of the offensive line—starting tackle Ricky Wagner and third guard John Urschel—and starting fullback Kyle Juszczyk and pass-rusher Pernell McPhee. Love this irony: McPhee could net the Ravens a pick at the end of the fourth round in 2016 after he signed a five-year, $39-million contract with the Bears last spring. That’s the kind of personnel discipline, knowing when to let good players leave because you trust you can train new players who cost much less, that consistently good teams have.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by penchief

Houston was a first round talent picked in the third round. No special evaluation skills needed.

This is just so wrong. Every other GM passed on him. So if the pick was that obvious - then every other GM is a bigger idiot than Pioli. Either way he deserves credit for bucking the trend and picking Houston.

It's ok, you can still hate him for being the turd he is. Doesn't mean you can't give a little credit when he made a great pick.

[alanm]

Remember when the Chiefs used to be able to plug and play on the OL? When whoever they drafted was more or less gold? Me either.

[penchief]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

This is just so wrong. Every other GM passed on him. So if the pick was that obvious - then every other GM is a bigger idiot than Pioli. Either way he deserves credit for bucking the trend and picking Houston.

It's ok, you can still hate him for being the turd he is. Doesn't mean you can't give a little credit when he made a great pick.

I gave him credit for Bailey. Houston dropped because he tested positive for pot at the combine. Giving him credit for picking Houston with the second of his two third-rounders is akin to saying Jerry Jones is a great evaluator of talent because he drafted Gregory in the second and signed Collins as a free-agent after he went undrafted.

IMO, picking Houston in the third had less to do with Pioli's talent evaluation skills and more to do with the fact he took a chance on Houston with the extra third-rounder he picked up in the Baldwin trade.

[salame]

Originally Posted by penchief

I gave him credit for Bailey. Houston dropped because he tested positive for pot at the combine. Giving him credit for picking Houston with the second of his two third-rounders is akin to saying Jerry Jones is a great evaluator of talent because he drafted Gregory in the second and signed Collins as a free-agent after he went undrafted.

IMO, picking Houston in the third had less to do with Pioli's talent evaluation skills and more to do with the fact he took a chance on Houston with the extra third-rounder he picked up in the Baldwin trade.

THIS

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

This is just so wrong. Every other GM passed on him. So if the pick was that obvious - then every other GM is a bigger idiot than Pioli. Either way he deserves credit for bucking the trend and picking Houston.

It's ok, you can still hate him for being the turd he is. Doesn't mean you can't give a little credit when he made a great pick.

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showp...3&postcount=53

[DaneMcCloud]

Pioli was unadulterated garbage.

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while.

[suzzer99]

You guys are still completely missing my point. What does that say about every other GM in the league if Pioli gets no credit for drafting Houston?

[Eleazar]

It's debatable if there is even ONE player in the top 15 of that draft who would be in the top 15 any other year.

But like the scout quoted says, sometimes the entire league has the same read on a player, and sometimes the entire league is wrong.

[GloucesterChief]

Originally Posted by Cochise

It's debatable if there is even ONE player in the top 15 of that draft who would be in the top 15 any other year.

But like the scout quoted says, sometimes the entire league has the same read on a player, and sometimes the entire league is wrong.

Kelce possibly.

[salame]

Originally Posted by Cochise

It's debatable if there is even ONE player in the top 15 of that draft who would be in the top 15 any other year.

But like the scout quoted says, sometimes the entire league has the same read on a player, and sometimes the entire league is wrong.

Fisher would have been 2nd round other years
Joeckel.............

[mcaj22]

Fat Scott gets credit for Poe and Stephenson, that's it. Berry, Houston, Bailey, where all highly scouted talents coming out of a college, even a monkey could have picked those guys.

[Eleazar]

Originally Posted by salame

Fisher would have been 2nd round other years
Joeckel.............

When you think of a #1 overall tackle, I'm thinking of someone who normally comes into the draft with a pedigree like Orlando Pace did, or like Bryant McKinnie did (even though he wasn't a 1.1), someone like that. A generational talent and not a project. But the league was at a consensus that these were the best two guys in that draft.

The next tackle, Lane Johnson (Phi #4 overall) already tested positive for PEDS and was suspended. This week he described his own play thus far this season as "pathetic".

The next one, DJ Fluker (SD #11), has been moved to guard.

The first tackle in the 2013 draft that seems to have worked out is the 5th one Justin Pugh (NYG, #19), and he was considered undersized in the run-up. There's no way you could have taken someone like that at #1.

There's some randomness to the draft that can't really be controlled.

[salame]

Originally Posted by Cochise

When you think of a #1 overall tackle, I'm thinking of someone who normally comes into the draft with a pedigree like Orlando Pace did, or like Bryant McKinnie did (even though he wasn't a 1.1), someone like that. A generational talent and not a project. But the league was at a consensus that these were the best two guys in that draft.

The next tackle, Lane Johnson (Phi #4 overall) already tested positive for PEDS and was suspended. This week he described his own play thus far this season as "pathetic".

The next one, DJ Fluker (SD #11), has been moved to guard.

The first tackle in the 2013 draft that seems to have worked out is the 5th one Justin Pugh (NYG, #19), and he was considered undersized in the run-up.

There's some randomness to the draft that can't really be controlled.

I thought the correct pick was joeckel. I'd have been wrong too lol

[chiefzilla1501]

According to Reid, Fisher is on track to start week 3. Jah Reid did not beat him out of a job. Peter king is full of shit. And it's amazing he's calling a pass rusher, a nose tackle, a safety and a few middling starters the guts of the franchise when the team lacked the heart, which I'd a QB and coaching staff.

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

You guys are still completely missing my point. What does that say about every other GM in the league if Pioli gets no credit for drafting Houston?

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showp...3&postcount=53