Trading down from 31/32 and why you should throw away the theory - Page 2

kccrow · 02-08-2024, 10:07 PM

I see many people mention trading down... Well here's your history lesson on why it's not likely and also not favorable.

Teams have only traded out of picks #31 or #32 a total of 5 times in the past 20 years.

Here they are:

2019 - 1-31 + 6-203 for 2-45 and 3-79. Falcons took Kaleb McGary, Rams ended up with Joejuan Williams and David Long.
2018 - 1-32 + 4-132 for 2-52 + 4-125 + 2019 2nd. Ravens took Lamar Jackson and Jaleel Scott, Eagles took Kemoko Turay, Avonte Maddox and then Miles Sanders in 2019
2017 - 1-31 for 2-34 + 4-111. 49ers took Reuben Foster. Seahawks took Cam Robinson and Tedric Thompson
2014 - 1-32 for 2-40 + 4-108. Vikings took Teddy Bridgewater. Seahawks took Kyle Van Noy and Cassius Marsh.
2012 - 1-31 + 4-126 for 2-36 + 4-101. Bucs took Doug Martin and Jared Crick. Broncos took Derek Wolfe and Omar Bolden.

As you can also see here, the team that traded out took significantly less talented players more often than not. I'd argue that the only team that may have gotten the upper hand was the Broncos in 2012. You can make a fair argument on Seattle over Minnesota in 2014 but Bridgewater wasn't bad, he was just broken, and while Van Noy has been steady, neither he nor Marsh has been great.

Also, you can see the pattern here that the best you're really going to get is a 4th round pick. No glorious hopes of returns that net you a 3rd rounder. While it's a high 4th, it's a 4th. We should not see mocks that entertain an extra 3rd rounder if you do project a trade-down because reality says it isn't happening.

Couch-Potato · 02-15-2024, 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Franchise

Am I going to have to deal with this shit the entire offseason? We're not cutting or trading Justin Reid.

possibly

RunKC · 02-15-2024, 02:18 PM

This might be a good year to trade down if we get stuck in no man's land like last year. Michael Penix Jr might be a guy teams want to trade more for at 32 to get the 5th year option. We could get more in a trade in that scenario.

Mecca · 02-15-2024, 02:21 PM

If anything Justin Reid earned an extension and it would lower his number.

**BigRedChief** · 02-20-2024, 09:20 AM

Seems to me that staying in the first round has an advantage rarely talked about as value.... We get another year of a rookie deal. Being able to keep George and McDuffie on a 5th year rookie deal will save our cap in a year or two.

**BigRedChief** · 02-20-2024, 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mecca

If anything Justin Reid earned an extension and it would lower his number.

I'm Leary of giving a lot of guaranteed money to a player that will be in his 30's.

kccrow · 02-20-2024, 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I'm Leary of giving a lot of guaranteed money to a player that will be in his 30's.

The dude just turned 27 five days ago. I think a 3-year extension is fine. You know you're likely to cut the guy in that last year anyhow.

kcbubb · 02-20-2024, 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC

This might be a good year to trade down if we get stuck in no man's land like last year. Michael Penix Jr might be a guy teams want to trade more for at 32 to get the 5th year option. We could get more in a trade in that scenario.

I agree. I’d love to see us trade with the falcons. I don’t know if they will want to pay the price to move up from #8 to get a top qb. I think this draft first three picks will be qbs and I don’t see the falcons paying that price. What would the falcons have to give up to move up to 32 to get penix? Here are the falcons picks. I like our options at the 43rd pick.

Atlanta Falcons Draft Picks by Round in 2024

Round 1, Pick 8
Round 2, Pick 43
Round 3, Pick 74
Round 3, Pick 79 (from JAX)*
Round 4, Pick 109
Round 5, Pick 141
Round 6, Pick 198 (via CLE)

DJ's left nut · 02-20-2024, 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kccrow

The dude just turned 27 five days ago. I think a 3-year extension is fine. You know you're likely to cut the guy in that last year anyhow.

He's actually a month younger than Sneed.

If someone says "hey, he's not what I hoped he'd be in coverage so I don't think I want to extend him..." then I get that. I don't agree - that's not his job. But I at least see the argument.

But the age thing makes no sense to me for a guy who doesn't rely on explosive athleticism for his production.

Couch-Potato · 02-20-2024, 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcbubb

I agree. I’d love to see us trade with the falcons. I don’t know if they will want to pay the price to move up from #8 to get a top qb. I think this draft first three picks will be qbs and I don’t see the falcons paying that price. What would the falcons have to give up to move up to 32 to get penix? Here are the falcons picks. I like our options at the 43rd pick.

Atlanta Falcons Draft Picks by Round in 2024

Round 1, Pick 8
Round 2, Pick 43
Round 3, Pick 74
Round 3, Pick 79 (from JAX)*
Round 4, Pick 109
Round 5, Pick 141
Round 6, Pick 198 (via CLE)

For #32 & #95?

We'd end up with...

#42 (2nd)
#64 (2nd)
#74 (3rd)
#79 (3rd)

DJ's left nut · 02-20-2024, 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Couch-Potato

For #32 & #95?

We'd end up with...

#42 (2nd)
#64 (2nd)
#74 (3rd)
#79 (3rd)

You're a 3rd rounder too high, IMO.

If they were desperate you might be able to get 43, 79 and 110 for 32 and 95. Even that may prove to be more than they're willing to offer.

Couch-Potato · 02-20-2024, 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

You're a 3rd rounder too high, IMO.

If they were desperate you might be able to get 43, 79 and 110 for 32 and 95. Even that may prove to be more than they're willing to offer.

Then ATL can kick rocks, they called me.

lol

kccrow · 02-20-2024, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

You're a 3rd rounder too high, IMO.

If they were desperate you might be able to get 43, 79 and 110 for 32 and 95. Even that may prove to be more than they're willing to offer.

I agree with this. 43, 79, and 110 actually work out exactly on the Rich Hill model.

Couch-Potato · 02-20-2024, 06:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kccrow

I agree with this. 43, 79, and 110 actually work out exactly on the Rich Hill model.

Click...We've hung up on you.

Good luck with Heinicke!

lol

kccrow · 02-20-2024, 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Couch-Potato

Click...We've hung up on you.

Good luck with Heinicke!

lol

You can't be completely out of the realm of reality with trade hopes. Honestly, if they gave you 43, 79, and 110 for 32 and 95, it would be a win in your favor on the JJ model and an exact match on the Hill model. It wouldn't be far off that. Certainly not a high 3rd off. You'd hang up and they'd laugh, honestly.

There isn't any more incentive for them to trade with you than there is for them to trade with Carolina. Carolina isn't taking a QB and in-draft trades between division rivals happen all the time.

kcbubb · 02-20-2024, 06:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kccrow

I agree with this. 43, 79, and 110 actually work out exactly on the Rich Hill model.

I like the options at those picks.

At 43, there are a few LTs that could be available like Kingsley Suamataia or Patrick Paul. Paul is a mountain at 6’6” with 36 arms and 86” wingspan.

https://youtu.be/JR19qpDV1SI?si=8bru5P9yftId2Poj

Or you could with a DT at 43 and there could be some available.

At 79, I’d love Brenden rice or one of the other WRs.

At 110, give me Audric estime rb nd. I want a big rb.

02-08-2024, 10:07 PM
kccrow MVP Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Michigan Casino cash: $3217078	Trading down from 31/32 and why you should throw away the theory I see many people mention trading down... Well here's your history lesson on why it's not likely and also not favorable. Teams have only traded out of picks #31 or #32 a total of 5 times in the past 20 years. Here they are: 2019 - 1-31 + 6-203 for 2-45 and 3-79. Falcons took Kaleb McGary, Rams ended up with Joejuan Williams and David Long. 2018 - 1-32 + 4-132 for 2-52 + 4-125 + 2019 2nd. Ravens took Lamar Jackson and Jaleel Scott, Eagles took Kemoko Turay, Avonte Maddox and then Miles Sanders in 2019 2017 - 1-31 for 2-34 + 4-111. 49ers took Reuben Foster. Seahawks took Cam Robinson and Tedric Thompson 2014 - 1-32 for 2-40 + 4-108. Vikings took Teddy Bridgewater. Seahawks took Kyle Van Noy and Cassius Marsh. 2012 - 1-31 + 4-126 for 2-36 + 4-101. Bucs took Doug Martin and Jared Crick. Broncos took Derek Wolfe and Omar Bolden. As you can also see here, the team that traded out took significantly less talented players more often than not. I'd argue that the only team that may have gotten the upper hand was the Broncos in 2012. You can make a fair argument on Seattle over Minnesota in 2014 but Bridgewater wasn't bad, he was just broken, and while Van Noy has been steady, neither he nor Marsh has been great. Also, you can see the pattern here that the best you're really going to get is a 4th round pick. No glorious hopes of returns that net you a 3rd rounder. While it's a high 4th, it's a 4th. We should not see mocks that entertain an extra 3rd rounder if you do project a trade-down because reality says it isn't happening.
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02-15-2024, 02:18 PM	#17
RunKC Andy Reid Supporter Join Date: Apr 2012 Casino cash: $2229611	This might be a good year to trade down if we get stuck in no man's land like last year. Michael Penix Jr might be a guy teams want to trade more for at 32 to get the 5th year option. We could get more in a trade in that scenario. __________________ Mike Greenberg@Espngreeny I can’t fathom what it must be like to be a fan of the #Chiefs. Adopt a Chief: Noah Gray
Posts: 46,106

02-15-2024, 02:21 PM	#18
Mecca Hockey Town Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Kansas City, Missouri Casino cash: $2597050	If anything Justin Reid earned an extension and it would lower his number.
Posts: 110,962

02-20-2024, 09:20 AM	#19
BigRedChief Has a particular set of skills Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: On the water Casino cash: $3119627 VARSITY	Seems to me that staying in the first round has an advantage rarely talked about as value.... We get another year of a rookie deal. Being able to keep George and McDuffie on a 5th year rookie deal will save our cap in a year or two. __________________ Fear leads to anger, anger leads to hate, hate leads to suffering. -YODA
Posts: 79,035