*** Official 2017 Royals Offseason Repository

[duncan_idaho]

The reign is over. Time to begin the quest for the next one.

Interesting offseason opens for the Royals. Will they go all in for one last shot with this crew? Will they re-tool for 2018 and beyond? Will Dayton Moore actually decrease payroll this time?

Trades, free agent signings, rumors, plans, proposals... dump 'em all here, for this is... the offseason repository!

Royals Top Prospects, 2017

This is a list that’s going to seem a little bleak initially, as Raul Mondesi got enough ABs to age out of the prospect rankings (just barely – at 135 ABs, he is not rookie eligible). But that said, I like the talent and feel like this is a system that will actually be underrated by the prospect services.

Spoiler!

Format: POS/Name/2017 Projected Final Level

1) 3B/OF Hunter Dozier, MLB. Dozier bounced back from a disastrous 2015 campaign that had many wondering, myself included, if he was wrecked. His strong offensive performance in 2016 saw Dozier recapture the mature approach that many liked coming up, while also starting to tap into his above-average raw power for the first time.

In addition to his success at the plate, Dozier also proved he could at least HANDLE an OF spot, which could put him in the conversation for 2017 playing time at the major leagues. If the Royals DO end up trading Cheslor Cuthbert, Dozier could find a decent amount of MLB playing time sliding between RF and 3B. With Moustakas recovering from knee surgery, he likely will need more regular breaks from the field. And the streaky Paulo Orlando is just not an intriguing short-side platoon partner for Jarrod Dyson.

2) LHP Matt Strahm, MLB. Strahm just barely skates under the rookie eligibility rules for a pitcher, so he can be included here. Royals fans already got a taste of the lefty’s abilities, as he used his above-average fastball and slurve to dominate out of the pen in 2016. For him to translate that dominance to the rotation, Strahm will need to maintain his velocity (92-94) and continue to improve a changeup that flashed average at times.

If the changeup becomes a weapon he can lean on against righties, Strahm could be a very solid mid-rotation starter and fringe ToR/No. 2 type (think Danny Duffy-lite).

3) RHP Josh Staumont, AAA. This one could blow up on me and look really silly by this time next year, but I’m encouraged by what we saw from Staumont late last year. He showed significantly improved control down the stretch for Northwest Arkansas, including some impressive playoff starts, while maintaining the big-time K ability. That trend continued in the Arizona Fall League.

If Staumont’s control holds, the Royals have a guy with a plus fastball, plus-plus curve, and average change (with a slider that could develop into a real weapon as he matures). He’ll start next season at AAA and could be an addition to the MLB bullpen or even the rotation before the season ends.

4) RF Jorge Bonifacio, AAA. Boni, like Dozier, had a bounceback season in 2016 with the bat, and also played 15-20 pounds lighter than the year before, which added some nice defensive utility according to reports I’ve gotten. He now looks like a guy could provide solid/average RF production in the major leagues… Average defense paired with potential to put up a .275/.335/.450 line. While that’s not all-star level, it IS playable. Especially at pre-arbitration dollars. He’ll get another year in Omaha to refine his approach, and likely be in the mix of a 2018 mini-youth movement… unless moved for MLB reinforcements.

5) C Meibrys Viloria, Low-A (Lexington). I haven’t seen him in person, but I like the pedigree. You’ve got a lefthanded hitting catcher with the defensive ability to stick behind the plate. He was a big-bonus guy out of Colombia (nearly $500k). And his offensive performance has been highly impressive early, with a good combination of power, plate discipline, and contact skills.

He’s forever away from the majors, just now clearing rookie ball, but Viloria is the most exciting prospect KC has had at Idaho Falls since someone on this board was gushing about a 16-year-old SS tearing it up.

6) 1B Ryan O’Hearn, AAA. O’Hearn is a guy who has never gotten a lot of hype from scouts, but he continues to be a strong producer. He’s someone who likely will strikeout about 25 percent of the time at the big-league level, but has the ability to be a .500+ SLG guy. That plays. He also has shown good patience at the plate, posting above-average OBPs at every level.

Bold prediction: I won’t be shocked if O’Hearn takes over at 1B for KC in 2018/2019 and provides similar offensive production to Hosmer out of the gate. He’s probably never going to be a consistent plus average (.290+) hitter, but .270 with 25 HR is something within reach for him. He’ll get his first shot at AAA in 2017.

7) RHP AJ Puckett, A+. Puckett is a high floor, low-ceiling guy who performed about as you’d expect in 2016 after being the Royals’ first pick in the 2016 Rule IV Draft. He’s not flashy, but Puckett does profile as a solid potential back-end starter. Good fastball command and an above-average changeup are his calling cards. If Puckett finds a reliable breaking ball to put batters away, this could tick up. Great athlete, very similar to Jake Odorizzi in that regard.

8) RF Khalil Lee, Low-A (Lexington). Lee was a two-way player in HS and many viewed him as a pitcher first as a pro, but the Royals drafted him as an OF and were reward with a strong debut campaign. Lee is not a big guy, but he produced solid power numbers despite that. He’s a dynamic athlete who could contribute with power and speed.

9) C Chase Vallot, High-A (Wilmington). Vallot has an intriguing bat, with plus raw power. Got off to a great start in 16 before being sidelined and then sidetracked by injury. RH bat may be good enough to push him out from behind the plate, where he has good tools but a long way to go.

10) RHP Jake Junis and RHP Alec Mills (AAA). I'm copping out here and including both at No. 10 because they're so similar. Like Puckett, they each project as a serviceable back of rotation starter. Similar stuff and profiles, though Junis has shown a little better strikeout ability and may have a smidge more upside as a result.

Others of note:

SS/CF Marten Gasparini. Production has been bad for this toolsy player, but Gasparini has speed and pop that jump out at you. At only 19, need to be patient with him... this European signee was even less polished when signing at 16 than the typical Latin America prospect.

OF Seuly Matias. Loud, loud tools. Matias profiles as a classic RF... big-time power potential. He's a long ways from the majors but is one of the Royals' biggest bonus babies from LA.

RHP Ashe Russell. 2014 1st rounder saw his velocity disappear last year and was quickly shut down. He's intriguing one way or the other, even if he ends up as another notch in the belt of the TINSTAAPP saying.

2B Corey Toups. O'Hearn's HS teammate has been an above-average producer for an up-the-middle player. His small stature hides a surprising amount of pop. Could turn into a Mark Grudzielanek type of offensive second baseman at his peak - solid average, lots of 2Bs.

RHP Scott Blewett, LHP Foster Griffin, RHP Nolan Watson - all three have underwhelmed as pros but were drafted in the supplemental round. Stuff and projectability for each is a positive. Wouldn't be surprised to see one of them take a Cody Reed-like step forward this season and crack the 50-75 range on prospect lists. They all have the natural ability.

SS/2B Ricky Aracena - Jose Altuve-sized Aracena is a switch hitting middle infielder who can flat out run. Switch hitter with a good approach.

RHP Pedro Fernandez - I'm still a believer in his stuff, even if he is destined for the pen. Was having a nice 2016 start until injuries derailed him right after his promotion to AA.

Sirs not Appearing in this Prospect List:

RHP Kyle Zimmer. Same story, different year. The Royals are hopeful they FINALLY found the cause of Zimmer's achy shoulder. If they really did, and he can stay healthy, the talent/potential is exciting.

OF Bubba Starling. Never trust a guy named Derek.

[Fansy the Famous Bard]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

2015 is coloring your recollection, I think.

From 2011-2014, Holland put up numbers that compare favorably with any reliever in baseball. He was a goddamn unhittable god.




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Much like Hererra's last 2 years wiped our memories of his previous where he was extremely hittable - even with the 100 mph fastball.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by fahrenheit

I wasn't trying to upset you, my apologies and I'll refrain from engaging ya further.

Tap out acknowledged - Greg Garcia is a golden god!!!

[Dartgod]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Wade Davis broke your brain.

Before Wade Davis made anyone that wasn't Wade Davis look sub-human, Greg Holland was as good a closer as you'd find out there.

In his 2 healthy seasons as the primary closer, Holland put up a WHIP below .9 and struck out better than 13 per 9 with an ERA of 1.32 and a FIP of 1.59. Those numbers are absurd.

In 133 appearances over those 2 seasons, he allowed a runner in scoring position 51 times. So at worst, in 38% of his appearances, he was in a little trouble. But I'd bet that many of those were 3 run leads with a man on 2b (not really in trouble there) or something of similar effect.

Short answer: I think you got spoiled by your robot closer and forgot that you had a pretty superhuman guy doing to job before him.

The back end of that bullpen of HDH may never be duplicated.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Dartgod

The back end of that bullpen of HDH may never be duplicated.

Seems unlikely.

Gonna be hard to top 200+ innings of a 1.25ish ERA and about 12 strikeouts per 9.

Honestly, Herrera wasn't even in the same stratosphere as Davis and Holland in 2014 and he was still incredible. Didn't Davis do something insane like go the entire season without giving up an extra base hit? Davis's 2014 season may have been the best season by a reliever in baseball history (especially for modern era usage).

I'd say that right now the best relievers in baseball are some combination of Jansen (my choice), Chapman, Miller, Britton and Bettances. Davis lost a little velocity and so his stuff wasn't as sharp.

But you could take any combination of those 4/5 guys, put them in a single bullpen and the three you choose are extremely unlikely to be as dominant as the Royals big 3 was that year.

The Yankees had the parts for it last season and with Bettances, Miller and Chapman had as much talent as the Royals had at the back of their 'pen. But with reliever volatility, there's a big difference in having the 3 most talented relievers and having the 3 most effective ones in any given year. The Royals had them all locked in at the same time that season and that just never happens.

[Meatloaf]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Seems unlikely.

Gonna be hard to top 200+ innings of a 1.25ish ERA and about 12 strikeouts per 9.

Honestly, Herrera wasn't even in the same stratosphere as Davis and Holland in 2014 and he was still incredible. Didn't Davis do something insane like go the entire season without giving up an extra base hit? Davis's 2014 season may have been the best season by a reliever in baseball history (especially for modern era usage).

I'd say that right now the best relievers in baseball are some combination of Jansen (my choice), Chapman, Miller, Britton and Bettances. Davis lost a little velocity and so his stuff wasn't as sharp.

But you could take any combination of those 4/5 guys, put them in a single bullpen and the three you choose are extremely unlikely to be as dominant as the Royals big 3 was that year.

The Yankees had the parts for it last season and with Bettances, Miller and Chapman had as much talent as the Royals had at the back of their 'pen. But with reliever volatility, there's a big difference in having the 3 most talented relievers and having the 3 most effective ones in any given year. The Royals had them all locked in at the same time that season and that just never happens.

DJ, just curious if you're really that high on Chapman. My limited observation of the guy is that, yeah, he has a 100+ fastball, but it appears to be the only pitch he has with command. In the playoffs, it looked like the eventual approach to the guy was to simply sit on his fastball.

I have the same concern about Herrera although when he does command any pitch beyond the fastball, he's pretty much unhittable. He seemed to just get stuck on the fastball last year. Perhaps this was true of Chapman last year?

Anyway, your thoughts on Chapman?

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Meatloaf

DJ, just curious if you're really that high on Chapman. My limited observation of the guy is that, yeah, he has a 100+ fastball, but it appears to be the only pitch he has with command. In the playoffs, it looked like the eventual approach to the guy was to simply sit on his fastball.

I have the same concern about Herrera although when he does command any pitch beyond the fastball, he's pretty much unhittable. He seemed to just get stuck on the fastball last year. Perhaps this was true of Chapman last year?

Anyway, your thoughts on Chapman?

He commands his slider well also. His issues with command come and go. When he's on, he's unhittable but he has some streaks (that seem to be associated with overuse) where he loses it a bit.

He was just worn slick in the WS so he was overthrowing to maintain his velocity. When that happens, you lose your command and your breaking ball loses its snap.

With less aggressive use, he's as good as anyone out there. But that's why I prefer Jansen - his cutter is such a low-stress pitch that he can throw more without putting as much strain on his arm and so his peak performance lasts a little longer. He's had some weird injuries that have kept his innings down at times (sprained ankle, heart malfunction) but without those, he's pretty rubber-armed as far as relievers go; very much like Mariano in that regard.

Chapman's never going to be a 'paint the black' guy, but he doesn't have to be. All he needs to do is get it in or near the strike zone and that fastball is so damn hard that hitters have to commit too early to do anything with the breaking ball if it leaves his hand anywhere near the strike zone. So in a sense he's like Adam Dunn. Dunn didn't know the strike terribly well, but pitchers were terrified of him so he drew a lot of walks. His one strength was just so damn strong that it papered over weaknesses (Stanton is a similar analogue).

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by Dartgod

The back end of that bullpen of HDH may never be duplicated.

Never

[Meatloaf]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

He commands his slider well also. His issues with command come and go. When he's on, he's unhittable but he has some streaks (that seem to be associated with overuse) where he loses it a bit.

He was just worn slick in the WS so he was overthrowing to maintain his velocity. When that happens, you lose your command and your breaking ball loses its snap.

With less aggressive use, he's as good as anyone out there. But that's why I prefer Jansen - his cutter is such a low-stress pitch that he can throw more without putting as much strain on his arm and so his peak performance lasts a little longer. He's had some weird injuries that have kept his innings down at times (sprained ankle, heart malfunction) but without those, he's pretty rubber-armed as far as relievers go; very much like Mariano in that regard.

Chapman's never going to be a 'paint the black' guy, but he doesn't have to be. All he needs to do is get it in or near the strike zone and that fastball is so damn hard that hitters have to commit too early to do anything with the breaking ball if it leaves his hand anywhere near the strike zone. So in a sense he's like Adam Dunn. Dunn didn't know the strike terribly well, but pitchers were terrified of him so he drew a lot of walks. His one strength was just so damn strong that it papered over weaknesses (Stanton is a similar analogue).

Thanks DJ. Appreciate your posts and observations!

[Buehler445]

Yeah DJ doing work in here.

[lewdog]

Colorado Rockies.

Where careers go to die.

Thanks Greg for you ability but glad we passed on the resigning.

[CaliforniaChief]

$7 million guaranteed? Wow.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief

$7 million guaranteed? Wow.

Yea, that's way too much. Good of the Royals for staying away from that.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Seems unlikely.

Gonna be hard to top 200+ innings of a 1.25ish ERA and about 12 strikeouts per 9.

Honestly, Herrera wasn't even in the same stratosphere as Davis and Holland in 2014 and he was still incredible. Didn't Davis do something insane like go the entire season without giving up an extra base hit? Davis's 2014 season may have been the best season by a reliever in baseball history (especially for modern era usage).

I'd say that right now the best relievers in baseball are some combination of Jansen (my choice), Chapman, Miller, Britton and Bettances. Davis lost a little velocity and so his stuff wasn't as sharp.

But you could take any combination of those 4/5 guys, put them in a single bullpen and the three you choose are extremely unlikely to be as dominant as the Royals big 3 was that year.

The Yankees had the parts for it last season and with Bettances, Miller and Chapman had as much talent as the Royals had at the back of their 'pen. But with reliever volatility, there's a big difference in having the 3 most talented relievers and having the 3 most effective ones in any given year. The Royals had them all locked in at the same time that season and that just never happens.

Britton doesn't have the strikeout numbers the other guys probably do, but he's a monster. Especially playing in that bandbox. He basically throws a heavy bowling ball up there. His season last year was incredible. Because of those other guys he's almost underrated.

It's easy to forget because this has been the decade of the power reliever, but early on, there was basically Kimbrel, Holland, and maybe another guy or two I'm forgetting. At the time, posting a 1.21 ERA with about 14 K/9 was insane. Even if the Royals get back to the playoffs... I don't think we'll see a back end of the bullpen like 2014, or a lineup clicking 1-9 like they did in 2015 again. We were lucky to see both.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by tk13

Britton doesn't have the strikeout numbers the other guys probably do, but he's a monster. Especially playing in that bandbox. He basically throws a heavy bowling ball up there. His season last year was incredible. Because of those other guys he's almost underrated.

It's easy to forget because this has been the decade of the power reliever, but early on, there was basically Kimbrel, Holland, and maybe another guy or two I'm forgetting. At the time, posting a 1.21 ERA with about 14 K/9 was insane. Even if the Royals get back to the playoffs... I don't think we'll see a back end of the bullpen like 2014, or a lineup clicking 1-9 like they did in 2015 again. We were lucky to see both.

Yeah.

I have a Yankee fan at work who thought I was crazy for saying the Yankees back end wouldn't be as effective as HDH in 2014.

Then he looked up their stats. And shut up.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

2015 is coloring your recollection, I think.

From 2011-2014, Holland put up numbers that compare favorably with any reliever in baseball. He was a goddamn unhittable god.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah basically this


Just like 16 colored Wade a bit with his troubles, he dropped from a gawd to just really good


Matt Strahm is going to be godlike this year. Just like 2016. He gets 65 IP in high leverage if I'm managing. (Which as you know I'm not)